Ole Humlum: Climate Indices November Analysis

Posted: December 20, 2014 by tallbloke in Analysis, climate
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Ole Humlum, one of the PRP contributors, has emailed me the climate4you November roundup of global temperature records and other climate metrics from the various providers. Clear analysis with informed commentary, the full document is available here.

ole-humlum-nov14

Solar contiguous activity cycle 23/24

Posted: December 20, 2014 by tchannon in Astrophysics, Solar physics

At first sight this Brazilan paper in Astronomy & Astrophysics is relatively uninteresting if you are familar with sunspot activity, appears to be another general look using waveletts.

Two features strike me as worthy of highlighting

  • a double burst of activity during cycle 23, not obvious from sunspot data alone
  • continuing activity right through the 23/24 transition

Image

Extract from paper Fig. 5, my highlight of strong X activity post the cycle 23 sunspot peak.

Wavelet analysis of CME, X-ray flare, and sunspot series

M. R. G. Guedes, E. S. Pereira and J. R. Cecatto

A&A 573 A64 (2015)

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201323080

(access with registration, large PDF 17.7MB)

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Why all research findings are false

Posted: December 19, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

tallbloke:

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An aeronautics expert writes sense about science. At the edge of design and testing in this field, the only thing between you and the field is thin, sharp-cold air.

Some disciplines force you to consider more precautionary principles than you could shake a climatologist at. But test pilots are adventurous and live life to the full. They push the edge hard in to see how it pushes back

Originally posted on The Devil's Neuroscientist:

(Disclaimer: For those who have not seen this blog before, I must again point out that the views expressed here are those of the demonic Devil’s Neuroscientist, not those of the poor hapless Sam Schwarzkopf whose body I am possessing. We may occasionally agree on some things but we disagree on many more. So if you disagree with me feel free to discuss with me on this blog but please leave him alone)

In my previous post I discussed the proposal that all¹ research studies should be preregistered. This is perhaps one of the most tumultuous ideas that are being pushed as a remedy for what ails modern science. There are of course others, such as the push for “open science”, that is, demands for free access to all publications, transparent post-publication review, and sharing of all data collected for experiments. This debate has even become entangled with age-old faith…

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Guest post from Ed Hoskins
A comparison of both the Capital Cost and Energy Production Effectiveness of the Renewable Energy in Europe.

The diagrams and table below collate the cost and capacity factors of Renewable Energy power sources, Onshore and Off-shore Wind Farms and Large scale Photovoltaic Solar generation, compared to the cost and output capacity of conventional Gas Fired Electricity generation.

Screen Shot 2014-12-16 at 08.16.07

The associated base data is shown below:

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tallbloke:

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Welcome post from people who know about polar bears.

Originally posted on polarbearscience:

NOAA’s list of purported evidence for harm being caused to polar bears by Arctic warmingis short and weak. It puts the gloomiest spin possible on the current well-being of an animal with all the earmarks of a healthy, well-distributed species.

Arctic report card 2014 screencap_Dec 18 2014

This year, polar bears are virtually the only species that NOAA mentions in their Arctic Report Card – they’ve put all their icon-eggs in one leaky basket [what happened to walrus??]. But polar bears are doing so well that to make an alarming case for polar bears as victims of Arctic warming, many important caveats had to be left out or misrepresented. Some details given are simply wrong.

This year’s polar bear chapter was penned by IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group chairman Dag Vongraven (you might recall his email to me earlier this year) and a polar bear conservation activist from Polar Bears International (whose battle…

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CET: No increase in extremes in recent years

Posted: December 19, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

tallbloke:

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Nice analysis of UK temperature records punctures MET-O’s ‘increasing extreme weather’ meme touted by their ennobled mouthpiece, Dame Julia of the Marshes.

Originally posted on xmetman:

I’m not sure that I accept that there has been an increase in Central England Temperature [CET] records in the last few decades as the following news blog from the Met Office claims:

Met Office Blog 17 Dec 2014

Met Office Blog 17 Dec 2014

So I thought that I would look at the daily series that extends back to 1772 for daily mean temperatures, and to 1878 for both maximum and minimum temperatures. I figured that if I added up every occasion when a record was set that I would get a good feel if there were more records getting set in recent years than in the past. Of course extremes take different forms:

  • Extreme minimum temperatures
  • Extreme maximum temperatures
  • Extreme low minimum temperatures
  • Extreme high minimum temperatures
  • Extreme low mean temperatures
  • Extreme high mean temperatures

So I counted and plotted all six types of daily temperature extremes. I ignore the early years, because there…

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First images from NASA OCO-2 satelite

Posted: December 18, 2014 by Andrew in atmosphere, data

imageNASA has released the first images from its Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2)  at the AGU conference today. Read the rest of this entry »

  • GC33H-07Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature trends and variations, 1900-2012
Wednesday, December 17, 201403:16 PM – 03:28 PM
    • Moscone West
    • 3005
    Over the past century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ~0.5 to 1°C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST and SAT, this study investigates NE Pacific coupled atmosphere-ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86).
    Read the rest of this entry »

    Reposted from Energy in Depth

    by Dave Quast  

    The Sierra Club, founded in San Francisco in 1892 by legendary conservationist John Muir, was once a clarion voice for the preservation of public lands and environmental stewardship. To note that the group has grown increasingly distant from its roots is an understatement. Its decline, which we have covered previously, unfortunately moves on apace with the release of its latest video: “Fracking 101.”

    Following in the “ban fracking” activist tradition of believing that actors (and whatever Yoko Ono is) somehow confer scientific legitimacy to anti-scientific polemics, the video features a voice-over by Edward James Olmos, who we will assume was unaware that the scripted words he was paid to read are the opposite of the truth.

    Introducing the animated video in the Huffington Post, current Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune wrote:

    “…fracking and other dirty fuel development is bad for public health, bad for the climate, and bad for the economy.”

    While this is likely all you need to know about the seriousness of today’s Sierra Club, let’s examine the claims made in the video.
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    From the Yorkshire Post, UKIP MP Doug Carswell on the reasons behind big fuel bike price hikes:

    energybillGOVERNMENT energy policy, put in place by Ministers of all three established parties, is pricing people out of being able to heat their own homes.

    The cosy consensus over energy policy here in Westminster is squeezing living standards across the country. According to the index of domestic fuel and light prices, helpfully reproduced by the House of Commons Library, prices have changed fairly dramatically over the past 40 years.

    From the early 1980s through to the early noughties, there was a slow, gradual fall in prices; it was a 20-year period of customers getting what they tend to get in a free market, capitalist economy – more for less.

    Suddenly and dramatically, that picture changed in the early noughties. Since then we have seen a rapid rise in prices – sharper, indeed, than that experienced during either of the two oil shocks of the 1970s.

    Dual-fuel household energy bills in 2014 for the average home are forecast to be almost £1,400. That represents a real-terms price increase of over 50 per cent in a decade during which average household incomes stagnated.

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    Oooh Look! A Squirrel!

    Posted: December 17, 2014 by tallbloke in alarmism
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    The BBC reports on a major new source of ‘carbon’. apparently, squirrels are going to kill us all according to climate scientist Dr Sue Natali, from Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts.

    If ground squirrels are adding nitrogen to an area – and that area doesn’t have plants because they dug them up – this may result in increased loss of carbon from the system

    Watch out for those tree felling squirrels, a falling tree will kill you as surely as a falling wind turbine.

    squirrel-tree

    De Bilt reports on yet another serious turbine failure. This time the 100m structure folded at a weld line some 30m off the ground. This is of great concern. Whereas most catastrophic failures are due to installation errors at the base bolts, this is a problem with the specification or execution of the construction of the monocoque structure – the main tower.

    turbine-collapse-germany2

    There’s a fundamental problem here. When steel is welded, the structure of the material either side of the joint, and the weld itself is different to the rolled steel sheet. This inevitably creates a location where stress gets concentrated more as the structure ages.
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    tallbloke:

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    1st in a Series of 4 posts by Talkshop contributor ‘scute’ examines Comet 67P and find it to b a stretched body rather than a contact binary. Navigate to the other 3 parts via the homepage.

    Originally posted on scute1133's Blog:

    Below are two photos of comet 67P/Churyumov- Gerasimenko. The first is a close-up of the so called body, the second is a portion of the head. These two areas have numerous matching points showing that they were once joined together. It therefore follows that 67P/C-G was once a single body that has since been stretched, resulting in the two lobes we see today.

    67P/C-G is therefore not a contact binary as has been suggested. Nor is it an unstretched single body that has been eroded to form the separate head and body.

    As it’s clear the comet was stretched, it must have been subjected to one of two scenarios. It either underwent a close approach to Jupiter under the Roche limit in the distant past or it underwent spin-up to around a 90-120 minute rotation period which would overcome its gravitational pull. The former scenario would need to allow stretching…

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    Guest post from Peter Morecambe aka ‘Galloping Camel’

    CLIMATE SCIENCE

    The Kyoto Protocol

    Elites around the world tend to believe that rising levels of CO2 in our atmosphere will cause catastrophic climate changes. Collectively they wield enough power to shape energy policies in many nations according to commitments laid down in the “Kyoto Protocol” and subsequent accords. It is interesting to compare the fate of the Kyoto Protocol based on the work of “Climate Scientists” such as Michael Mann with that of the Montreal Protocol based on the work of people like McElroy.

    The Montreal Protocol essentially banned the production of Freon and similar compounds based on the prediction that this would reduce the size of the polar “Ozone Holes”. After the ban went into effect the size of the ozone holes diminished. This may mean that the science presented by McElroy and his cohorts was “Robust” or it may be dumb luck. Either way, McElroy has credibility and “Skeptics” are ridiculed. The Kyoto Protocol did not fare so well.

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    BBC News – Arctic sea ice volume holds up in 2014

    Posted: December 15, 2014 by oldbrew in climate, sea ice
    On tour in the Arctic [credit: US Navy]

    On tour in the Arctic
    [credit: US Navy]

    Now that the so-called ‘climate summit’ is out of the way, the BBC finds itself forced to admit that reports of the impending death of Arctic sea ice were greatly exaggerated. There’s even talk of ‘modest growth’ – shock horror!

    Arctic sea ice may be more resilient than many observers recognise.

    While global warming seems to have set the polar north on a path to floe-free summers, the latest data from Europe’s Cryosat mission suggests it may take a while yet to reach those conditions.

    [Straw-clutching going on there?]

    Read the rest of this entry »

    Guest post from Talkshop regular Doug Proctor

    consensusThe Draft Decision coming out of the Lima, Conference of the Parties (COP20) meetings of 01-12 December 2014 is now available. The summary is only 4 pages long (the fifth is a blank Annex). It is short but an interesting read for what it doesn’t demonstrate: a commitment to create binding commitments with respect to either CO2 emissions or adaptation maneuvers for anyone on anything up to and, it would appear, including, the upcoming December 2015 meeting in Paris.

    The draft was created as a series of semi-bullet points, though instead of “bullets” it uses action words to signify decisions made by the 195 Parties to the conference. But we should not be deceived that the action words mean “action” in the common sense of “doing something”. These are more intellectual action words, like “affirming”, “noting”, “confirming” etc. In effect, “We agree to keep talking about the subject, even perhaps around the subject, but we do not agree to step up and start doing anything related to the subject of CO2 emissions”. This can be construed as a cynical interpretation, but I argue (below) that a close read says it is not.

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    tallbloke:

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    Lord Lawson calls for suspension of Climate Change Act

    Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

    gwpf_logo

    Press Release 14/12/14

    Lord Lawson: After Lima, UK Climate Change Act Should Be Suspended

    London 14 December: Dr Benny Peiser, the director of the Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF), has welcomed the non-binding and toothless UN climate agreement which was adopted in Lima earlier today.
    Dr Peiser said:

    “The Lima agreement is another acknowledgement of international reality. The deal is further proof, if any was needed, that the developing world will not agree to any legally binding caps, never mind reductions of their CO2 emissions.”
    “As seasoned observers predicted, the Lima deal is based on a voluntary basis which allows nations to set their own voluntary CO2 targets and policies without any legally binding caps or international oversight.”

    “In contrast to the Kyoto Protocol, the Lima deal opens the way for a new climate agreement in 2015 which will remove legal obligations for governments to cap or reduce CO2 emissions…

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    Back before he took office, Obama set out his stall for his pogrom against affordable energy. The mail has breaking new of a report the government has tried to suppress:

    Family electricity bills are set to soar by almost £350 within 15 years – to pay for the Government subsidies for green energy.

    Official figures — initially withheld by ministers — reveal the price of electricity will rocket by 60 per cent as wind farms and other green projects take over traditional coal-burning power stations.

    The cost of electricity will jump from £131 per megawatt hour to some £206 by 2030, the Government estimates. It means that the average household bill will rise from £589.50 to £927.

    Homes which only use electricity could see their bills rise by as much as £440 a year.

    elec-price-2030

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    tallbloke:

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    How fast is the Pacific cooling? Pretty fast by the look of the sea level data.

    Originally posted on Real Science:

    According to experts at the University of Colorado, sea level east of the Philippines is rising at about 15 mm/year. However, their own data shows sea level at that location falling 36 mm/year since late 2010.

    ScreenHunter_5200 Dec. 14 06.58ScreenHunter_5201 Dec. 14 07.06

    ssh_anomaly.nc

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    Ferenc Miskolczi

    Well here’s a nice surprise. Out of the blue, Dr Ferenc Miskolczi has dropped a link onto Tim Channon’s thread, which goes to his major new paper, published by the SEI. So we are privileged to be among the first to read it and start a discussion. It challenges the entire basis of the IPCC AGW theory by deriving a theoretical atmosphere which fits observations and demonstrates stability of the Earth’s radiative balance. Thanks Ferenc!

    Ferenc Mikolczi 2014 Abstract

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