Solar system planets [image credit: BBC]

Solar system planets by size
[image credit: BBC]

Using a simple formula we’re now able to see the link between Jupiter and Saturn orbits. As in the original giant planets update post the numbers are quite large but easily connected to the ‘Why Phi’ concept.

Using the orbit period of each planet we derive the synodic period, i.e. the time taken for the path of faster planet Jupiter to ‘catch up’ with slower planet Saturn. If we call the orbit periods J and S and the synodic period J-S we can make two calculations:
(360 / S) x J-S and (360 / J) x J-S.
The difference between the two results should be 360.

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hamster-powerRemember this stuff when casting your vote next May. UKIP is the only party with a sensible energy policy. Roundup of (lack of) energy: news by Benny Peiser at GWPF:

Written by Dr. Benny Peiser, GWPF on 28 October 2014

Emergency measures to prevent blackouts this winter have been unveiled by National Grid after Britain’s spare power capacity fell to just 4 per cent. –Emily Gosden, The Daily Telegraph, 27 October 2014

The capacity crunch has been predicted for about seven years. Everyone seems to have seen this coming – except the people in charge.  –Andrew Orlowski, The Register, 10 June 2014

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Cameron-stinkyThis article is by Tim Channon[1], not Tallbloke.

Cameron is complaining about a small surcharge after he agrees to the far larger EU Climate agenda including EU ETS.

Media buy the smokescreen.

Dates are important

From gov.uk web site

Speech
European Council October 2014: David Cameron’s speech
From: Prime Minister’s Office, 10 Downing Street and The Rt Hon David Cameron MP
Delivered on: 24 October 2014 (Transcript of the speech, exactly as it was delivered)

Good afternoon and welcome. It has been 24 hours in Brussels with some notable and important successes, but also with some deep frustrations and frankly quite a bit of anger about the way we have been treated.

…  [Ebola]

The second issue has been climate change, where I want to make sure Europe is playing its part in delivering a global deal that can prevent dangerous climate change. I think it was very important that Europe stepped up to the plate, and we have done that, with committing ourselves to more than 40% reductions of greenhouse gases by 2030.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/european-council-october-2014-david-camerons-speech

Who got the headlines and brickbats over an announced EU climate intent? Not Cameron, the outgoing Rompuy.

Cameron has gone very loudly ballistic over money, hiding the climate issue completely. Looks like the media bought this.

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Reposted from Clive Best’s excellent blog 
Posted on October 23, 2014 by Clive Best
I have noticed that wind power delivered to the Grid is always less than 6 GW, no matter how windy it gets. This was clearly demonstrated on October 21st when wind speeds across the country reached around 50 mph for most of the day. The wind output was simply bumping along continuously below 6 GW. Something fishy is going on – What is it?

winds


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Why Phi: giant planets update

Posted: October 26, 2014 by oldbrew in Maths, solar system dynamics

Solar system planets [image credit: BBC]

Solar system planets by size
[image credit: BBC]

The Why Phi series started with a discussion around ‘Relations between the Fibonacci Series and Solar System Orbits’ (link below)

Now NASA has updated its planetary data as of 20th October 2014. With the revised numbers (see below for source) we have to re-calculate the orbital relationships of the giant planets.

Amending the original numbers we find:
89 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions = almost 1768 years
In Fibonacci numbers: 1768 = 34 x 13 x 2²

And there’s more…

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Artist Perry Grayson has made a vase decorated with motifs related to Chris Huhne, smashed it with a lump hammer, and repaired it, before displaying it in the National Portrait Gallery.

Grayson Perry vase

Grayson Perry’s vase features speed cameras, penises, Huhne, his mobile phone, personalised number plates, and wind turbines.

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Image

I’d not followed up on the saga of DMS, a reminder came up so I’ve dug out the tale up to 2003 or so. What then, can anyone add more? Because IPCC AR4 looks to me to be obfuscating. Best do a quick scan of the long article before dipping too deeply into links.

“Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) or methylthiomethane is an organosulfur compound with the formula (CH3)2S. Dimethyl sulfide is a water-insoluble flammable liquid that boils at 37 °C (99 °F) and has a characteristic disagreeable odor. It is a component of the smell produced from cooking of certain vegetables, notably maize, cabbage, beetroot and seafoods.”
And the smell of seaside. Stinky stuff is Sulphur.
__ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimethyl_sulfide

Why mention this on the Talkshop?
Ocean critters produce the stuff, a very complex situation.
The C is produced from CO2. S probably from volcanoes. Predation of the critters is also involved etc. part of a food chain.  Sulphur is in short supply, so bad that farming often needs additional input wherein lies yet another sad tale of enviro own goals, perhaps too why volcanic soils are lauded as highly productive.

Dated 2000

  • Abstract. Continuous measurements of atmospheric dimethylsulfide (DMS) have been performed over a 10-year period (1990-1999) at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean. Atmospheric DMSranges from 5 to1930 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) and shows a clear seasonal variation with a factor of 20 in amplitude between its maximum in January (austral summer) and minimum in July-August (austral winter). Important deviations from the 10-year monthly mean as high as 100% have been detected, which could not be explained by changes in meteorology and/or oxidation capacity of the atmosphere. Comparison with a three dimensional (3-D) chemistry/transport model revealed that changes in the source strength of DMS as high as a factor of 2 were required to account for such DMS interannual variations. In addition, DMS variability was found to be closely related to sea surface temperature anomalies, clearly indicating a link between DMS and climate changes.
    — [1]
sciere-fig7-a

Fig 7a from Sciare et al

From this I assume there is a strong positive cloud seeding temperature coefficient but suitable data for an attempt at computing effect does not seem to exist.

 

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Image

Fig.14. 361-day moving average of the integrated flux in the reconstruction and in UARS and SORCE SSI between a) 120 and 180 nm, b) 180 and 250 nm, c) 250 and 300 nm, and d) 300 and 410 nm. The UARS and SORCE time series are normalized to the reconstruction at the 1996 and 2008 solar cycle minima, respectively. The dashed lines indicate the uncertainty range of the reconstruction.

 

Reconstruction of total and spectral solar irradiance from 1974 to 2013 based on KPVT, SoHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI observations
K. L. Yeo, N. A. Krivova, S. K. Solanki, and K. H. Glassmeier

18 page PDF available on registration with Astronomy & Astrophysics
http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423628

ABSTRACT

  • Context. Total and spectral solar irradiance are key parameters in the assessment of solar influence on changes in the Earth’s climate.
  • Aims. We present a reconstruction of daily solar irradiance obtained using the SATIRE-S model spanning 1974 to 2013 based on full-disc observations from the KPVT, SoHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI.

 

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Image

EVIDENCE OF LENGTH OF DAY (LOD) BIDECADAL VARIABILITY
CONCURRENT WITH THE SOLAR MAGNETIC CYCLES
Milivoje A. Vukcevic M.Sc
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01071375/document

Abstract: Number of factors ranging from global atmospheric and oceans circulation to the plate tectonic movements affects the length of day (LOD) on different time scales. Existence of a coincidental or causal correlation between the solar magnetic oscillations and the secular LOD changes is demonstrated.

 

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UK rainfall cycles

Posted: October 23, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

tallbloke:

.
.
Great post on UK rainfall data

Originally posted on xmetman:

With all this talk in the media about our recent record wet winters in the UK, I thought I would take a look at the recent daily regional precipitation figures that are available for the UK and see if I could find any cycles or periodicity in them. By the way, the regional data extends back to 1931 and is free to download from the Met Office.

Because rainfall at the daily level produces far too much information to visualise by just looking at a moving average overlaid on the top of a bar chart of daily values, I though I would display the daily totals as a 365 running total in an effort to try to identify any trends or cycles that may be lurking in the unseen data, and lo and behold there they are!

England & Wales Rainfall 365 day Running Totals 1 January 1932 - 30 September 2014 England & Wales Rainfall 365 day Running Totals 1 January 1932 – 30…

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From the Lincolnshire Echo a short piece by Roger Helmer MEP:

george-osborne-cartoonBack in 2010, soon after the General Election, the then Energy Minister, Conservative Charles Hendry, announced no new coal-fired power stations could be built in the UK without Carbon Capture and Storage. But CCS adds 20 to 25 per cent to the cost of energy (or put it another way, reduces efficiency by the same factor). So – surprise, surprise – there have been no takers. The unintended consequence has been no new coal capacity at all.

I am often asked how Germany can be building a couple of dozen new coal-fired power stations, and we in Britain can’t. This is how. It’s a self-inflicted injury, and our Coalition government is directly responsible for it.

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The low cost of fighting climate change

Posted: October 22, 2014 by tchannon in alarmism, Politics

U.S., EU want U.N. to stress low cost of climate change fight – draft

(Reuters) – The United States and European Union want the U.N. to stress the low cost of fighting climate change in a draft handbook on the issue that it is compiling, a leaked document showed on Tuesday.

The United States wants the handbook to do more to show that the costs of action “will be almost insignificant relative to projected growth”, the document showed.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/21/uk-climatechange-ipcc-idUKKCN0IA15620141021

It mentions a pause slowdown.

Saudi Arabia said that the period of the slowdown should be extended to 1998-2014 from 1998-2012 in the draft.

Wonder if we can prise a copy of the document out of anyone?

The US riding on a shale gas boom, exporting oil again, talks about negligible cost? Or perhaps this really is a paper tiger, fight meaning no more than a lot of jaw and noise, no real action. Talk is cheap.

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I’ve started collecting a few of the Met Office published weather forecasts in addition to the weather station data, building an archive.

The UK Met Office are masters of obfuscation, vague language, handwaving yet for all the money poured in over the years their forecasting prowess is notorious. What follows is backed up by more details left for another time.

We have just had a minor blow in London, enough to cancel flights at the premier UK airport, brought down trees, at least one death. The BBC are going on about it as is the Guardian.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29685066
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/oct/21/uk-storms-woman-dead-trees-fall-london-hurricane-gonzalo

[update: Met Office hourly data for the 21st is now in and plotted PDF here (1.4MB) --Tim]

Note for comprehension, 16 to 30 days means that is how far ahead it is from the publication date.

 

Met Office 16 to 30 day forecast

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Oct 2014 to Thursday 23 Oct 2014:

  • The broadly northwest-southeast split in the weather conditions is showing signs of persisting through mid-October.
  • This pattern would leave southern, central and eastern parts tending to see the best of the weather with conditions often fine and dry.
  • Occasional bouts of rain should still be expected, and mist and fog patches may be a problem during morning rush hours.
  • Under the fine weather it should still feel pleasant with temperatures a little above average for the time of year.
  • Further northwest, conditions are likely to be more unsettled with more frequent outbreaks of rain, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds.
  • Temperatures here should be closer to average or perhaps even just below at times.

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[edit: I have made the serious mistake of not checking the date of the news story, is actually 2013 although the page is (c) 2014, tweet items there mention 2013 and I did spot the 99mph gust which I knew from last year,  ought to have twigged. Sorry folks. Tim.]

The Dungeness B nuclear power station in Kent is using diesel generators to power its site after both reactors shut down automatically due to a power cut

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24700611

Logical, no ‘leccy so you can’t have any.

That’s six UK power stations now offline with unplanned stoppages.

A non story other than a defective infrastructure, presumably power lines were out. Is there no end to silly cockups?

Wrong kind of leaves on the line?

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Remember this in May when you cast your vote. In order to get past the real threat of blackouts as our generation capacity teeters close to the brink, our government now wants old people to eke out their pensions heating a single room and to merge with the Green party in telling the rest of us to jump up and down to keep warm while forking out to subsidise rich landowners to host corporate sized wind farms. They’ve got to go.

heat-one-room

 

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Over on realclimate, (remember them?), Stefan ‘there is no pause’ Rahmsdorf has posted an article about why OHC makes a lousy climate policy target. I’ve left a comment concerning a sentence further down in the post, but here’s the intro:

donkey-cartThe New York Times, 12 December 2027: After 12 years of debate and negotiation, kicked off in Paris in 2015, world leaders have finally agreed to ditch the goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C. Instead, they have agreed to the new goal of limiting global ocean heat content to 1024 Joules. The decision was widely welcomed by the science and policy communities as a great step forward. “In the past, the 2 °C goal has allowed some governments to pretend that they are taking serious action to mitigate global warming, when in reality they have achieved almost nothing. I’m sure that this can’t happen again with the new 1024 Joules goal”, said David Victor, a professor of international relations who originally proposed this change back in 2014. And an unnamed senior EU negotiator commented: “Perhaps I shouldn’t say this, but some heads of state had trouble understanding the implications of the 2 °C target; sometimes they even accidentally talked of limiting global warming to 2%. I’m glad that we now have those 1024 Joules which are much easier to grasp for policy makers and the public.”

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After the Ferrybridge fire and Hunstanton nuclear power station, more bad news for the hard pressed National Grid.

didcotgeorginemilesZainab Mirmalek, who lives opposite the power station, said: “There’s lots of water gushing down on it, lots of smoke and steam but the fire is definitely under control now.”

Fellow Didcot resident Leila Qureshi said: “We got quite near before the road was shut.

“The fire was ferocious. You could feel the heat and smell it.”

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The Polish Government is talking tough. From wbj:

vetoIf the EU summit next week maintains the European Commission’s proposal on reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 40 percent by 2030, Poland will have to veto it, Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Janusz Piechociński told Polish Radio on Thursday.

“If this initial proposal will look as it does now, then Poland will have no choice but to veto it,” Piechociński said.

“For the Polish economy minister and the majority of EU economy ministers the 40-percent option, which destroys half of Europe’s industry, is unacceptable,” he added.

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Michele left a comment on suggestions but the surprise came later

Big Ar 2192 and flare X1.1 + CME

Image

Note the Solex date: 14th October 2014, today is the 19th.

I looked at the Spaceweather archive for the 14th and of course the authors did not know what was about to happen

SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: High-latitude auroras are possible on Oct. 14th when Earth crosses through a fold in the heliospheric current sheet. This is called a “solar sector boundary crossing,” and NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when it occurs.

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tallbloke:

.
.
.It’s all coming undone – just as climate realists have been predicting for years.

Originally posted on STOP THESE THINGS:

angry german kid

The Germans went into wind power harder and faster than anyone else – and the cost of doing so is catching up with a vengeance. The subsidies have been colossal, the impacts on the electricity market chaotic and – contrary to the purpose of the policy – CO2 emissions are rising fast (see our post here).

Some 800,000 German homes have been disconnected from the grid – victims of what is euphemistically called “fuel poverty”. In response, Germans have picked up their axes and have headed to their forests in order to improve their sense of energy security – although foresters apparently take the view that this self-help measure is nothing more than blatant timber theft (see our post here).

One justification put up by the wind industry for the social and economic chaos caused by spiralling power costs was the claim that investment in wind power would…

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