Image

The UK Met Office / Hadley Centre (Met Office) / Climatic Research Unit (UEA) construct and publish global time series for temperature based on published 5 degree gridded. How this is derived from land meteorological station readings and ship board for sea surface temperature is unclear. The gridded to eg. global is a simple (cosine) weighted average which takes into account the variable area of a linear grid representing a sphere.

I have put together maps showing the data counts for decades over a world shore outline. These are provided as vector plots (master work), PDF, or for casual looks, PNG. The results are disturbing and particularly in the light of the Met Office producing 100 different versions of HadSST3. “Each of the following files is a zip archive containing ten realisations of the HadSST3 data set. There are 100 realisations in total.”

Do I detect obfuscation, flapping for distraction?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Talkshop has an interest in orbital periods, spin-orbit coupling, the equalisation by nature of the gaps between objects.

Image

Rotational properties of the binary and non-binary populations
in the trans-Neptunian belt
A. Thirouin, K. S. Noll. J. L. Ortiz, and N. Morales
Published online 8th Sept 2014
Astronomy & Astrophysics (early access on registration)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423567

Abstract

We present results for the short-term variability of binary trans-Neptunian objects (BTNOs). …

A second older paper may be of interest

Image

 

CHARACTERIZATION OF SEVEN ULTRA-WIDE TRANS-NEPTUNIAN BINARIES
Alex H. Parker, JJ Kavelaars, Jean-Marc Petit, Lynne Jones, Brett Gladman, Joel Parker
Version 2 published late 2011
The Astrophysical Journal, open access copy, http://arxiv.org/abs/1108.2505v2
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/743/1/1

Read the rest of this entry »

The snowfall of 1956

Posted: September 16, 2014 by tchannon in weather

This article has merit in interest but is a precursor to a following article containing the results from a large new work about Met Office gridded data CRUTEM3, HadSST3 and HadCRUT3. Links to the event of 1956 as a validation mark.

In looking for evidence of a major cold snap in France the following personal account article appeared, it has sunspots SSW and lots of falling snow.

The winter of 1956 in the Southern Hemisphere

That year ended with a terribly cold wave in the Southern Hemisphere, with snow mixed with rain at Geraldton in Western Australia, at a latitude 28.48 ° South, which was the snowfall at lowest latitude ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. Usually, cold waves affecting Europe and North America are a consequence of stratwarming, which is an unusual heating of the stratosphere above the North Pole, which in turn leads to tropospheric arctic anticyclones, with consequent descent of cold air to lower latitudes.

But not so in 1955-1956, the longest and geographically widest cold wave in the 20th century.

Read the rest of this entry »

tallbloke:

.
.
A thoughtful article recounting reasons for personal choice by someone who has considered both yes and no in the Scotland indyref. The parallels with the climate debate are striking.

Originally posted on wakeupscotland:

 Ewan Morrison is an award-winning Scottish author and screenwriter.

how one word silencedFour months ago I joined the Yes camp out of a desire to take part in the great debate that the Yes camp told me was taking place within their ranks. Being a doubter I thought maybe I’d failed to find this debate and that it was exclusive to the membership of the Yes camp, so I joined hoping I could locate it and take part. But even as I was accepted into the ranks – after my ‘Morrison votes Yes’ article in Bella Caledonia, I noted that 5 out of the meagre 20 comments I received berated me for either not having decided sooner or for having questioned Yes at all. Another said, and I paraphrase: ‘Well if he’s had to mull it over he could easily switch to the other side.’ That comment in Bella Caledonia worked away…

View original 1,804 more words

Understanding The Bulge

Posted: September 14, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Originally posted on Real Science:

sl

According the University of Colorado, sea level is rising much faster than 85% of tide gauges show, and forming a massive mound near the Philippines. Apparently they believe that water likes to pile up in mounds, and to help visualize their BS I created a 3D animation.

SEaLevelBulge

And one more minor detail. They used to have the map below on their site, but have removed it. It showed that their error was almost as large as their trend – meaning their data is basically worthless

ScreenHunter_2791 Sep. 14 13.09

This complete garbage forms the basis of the IPCC claim that sea level rise suddenly doubled in 1992, when they switched measurement systems.

View original

Coal, There’s Just No Alternative

Posted: September 14, 2014 by tchannon in Analysis, Energy, Incompetence, Politics

Tony Thomas mentions he has an opinion piece up on Quadrant about the reality of electricity and human wealth in all the ways not so obvious, but also right on the past cries of environmentalists deeming the undeveloped world must not get wealth.

Thomas discusses US author and energy specialist Robert Bryce

Bryce didn’t discuss the merits of the catastrophic human-caused global-warming hypothesis. He just delineated the irrationality of draconian global and national targets to cut CO2 emissions, given the developing world’s determination to use electricity to lift its people from poverty:

“I’m a resolute agnostic about the climate issue. Tell me CO2 is good, tell me it’s bad. I’m bored with the nastiness.

“The question that too few people are willing to ask is this one: where, how, will we find the energy equivalent of 27 Saudi Arabias and have it all be carbon-free?”

Oh yes, nastiness, a hallmark of forcing others to do your bidding…

Read the rest of this entry »

Given a winter of disconnect is mooted by some, any introduction of a real power station is news but not just yet.

3 The Order, if made, would grant development consent for the construction and operation of a thermal generating station that would operate either as a Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plant or as an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plant, with a total electrical output of up to 470MWe at North Killingholme, Lincolnshire. The generating station would only be able to burn other types of fuel such as coal and biomass[1]  if the full Carbon Capture Storage chain is in place. A separate Environmental Permit, controlling emissions from the plant, will also be required from the Environment Agency before the generating station can be operated.
http://infrastructure.planningportal.gov.uk/projects/yorkshire-and-the-humber/north-killingholme-power-project/

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine is one of those over-egged technologies with party trick claims. As sustained base load the thermal efficiency is good but part load is dreadful, becomes a gas turbine, one of the less bright inventions which has a redeeming feature of great power in a small space. A lot to do with heat engines is counter intuitive. A weakness is always a sharp drop in thermal efficiency with power reduction, how rapidity it drops varies greatly with the technology.

And IGCC? That is where things get bad.

Read the rest of this entry »

Hockey Schtick: CO2 does what exactly?

Posted: September 12, 2014 by tchannon in atmosphere, Natural Variation, ozone

Oh the irony!
Cutting CO2 emissions is…

 

And

Yes, that’s right, deadly man-made CO2 is the largest cooling agent of the stratosphere as demonstrated by this computer-modeled representation of stratospheric cooling rates:

Image

Image from blog article, originally in E M Smith’s article chiefio.wordpress.com/2014/06/01/le-chatelier-and-his-principle-vs-the-trouble-with-trenberth/

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the advantages of being billed by the most self important climate discussion website in the world as being a purveyor of ‘way out there theory’, is that I can publish whatever I like with no risk of further reputational damage. So when Stuart (Oldbrew) spotted that Miles Mathis has written a paper inspired by the same NASA material we have been discussing recently, I thought, why the hell not? Miles has been developing his ideas about a fundamental photon charge field underlying observed electro-magnetic phenomena for several years now, and has built up quite a corpus of work. This makes it difficult to absorb his stuff without clicking through to read his previous papers, and you soon find yourself in a labyrinth of ‘too many tabs’ open in your browser. Nonetheless, he is always entertaining, and thought provoking, even if it will be a while before we can see whether the predictions he makes based on his theory turn out to be correct. At least he has the guts to make definite predictions in the first place. None of your mealy mouthed ‘may’, ‘could’ and ‘perhaps’ ‘narrative scenario projections’ with Miles. He shoots fro the hip. Good lad. :)

mathis-sc-title

First published September 6, 2014

One of my readers sent me a link to wonderful new data from NASA. Although NASA and the rest of
the mainstream are not so good when it comes to theory, they are quite adept at compiling data, so I
have to thank them in this case. Without their numbers I could do nothing.

It has been known for a long time that the main Solar cycle is about 11 years, but that is just an
average. It goes from a minimum of about 9 years up to about 14 years. Although some theories have
been presented, the cause of all three numbers is unknown. I will show you the correct answer here.
The reason I so quickly hit on the right answer is that I knew where to look. In my other long paper on
Sun cycles (ice ages), I have already shown that Jupiter is the cause of the secondary variance. In this
case we will see that Jupiter is the cause of the primary variance.

Read the rest of this entry »

tallbloke:

.
.
Lolz

Originally posted on CLIMATE NUREMBERG:

In a recent post we broke the news that a heroic band of scientists was finally making Australia look good.

A number of readers questioned whether it actually takes courage to have the courage to admit you’re scared of climate change.

Er, yes. Yes it does. The great medieval leader Edward “Ed” Stark explained this better than any science communicator could:

Bran thought about it. ‘Can a man still be brave if he’s afraid?’

‘That is the only time a man can be brave,’ his father told him.

Speaking of historical dramas, my thirteen-year-old thinks he’s getting the 300 box set for his birthday tomorrow. But I reckon he’ll be even more popular with his mates when he opens his actual present: a donation to the Scared Scientists in his name!

(The ScS team, caving in to the demands of ordinary climate mums and dads around the country, have reluctantly…

View original 1,369 more words

It’s 10 years since the death of John Daly, but we forgot to mark this decadal anniversary back at the end of January. Here is the article by John Izzard originally published at Quadrant.org.au in 2009, which looks back at his life and work. If anyone has a copy of his book “The Greenhouse Trap” please let me know. Google and Amazon aren’t interested (and probably think n0-one else should be either).

John L. Daly (31 March 1943 – 29 January 2004)
by JOHN IZZARD

Daly-picYesterday I visited John L. Daly’s tiny office where he lived on the outskirts of Launceston. It is about the size of two telephone boxes. His wife, Amy, has kept is just as it was when John died in 2004. His computer, his files, the maps on the wall — his notes, letters, photographs and dairies. She has also kept alive his web-site which he was still updating at the time of his death.

Looking at his scientific work today gives an insight into why the people at the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit were so annoyed with Daly’s work and why he was such a thorn in the side of their climate theories and research.

Read the rest of this entry »

Via GWPF:

Matt Ridley: Whatever Happened To Global Warming?
Date: 05/09/14 Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal

whateverGWOn Sept. 23 the United Nations will host a party for world leaders in New York to pledge urgent action against climate change. Yet leaders from China, India and Germany have already announced that they won’t attend the summit and others are likely to follow, leaving President Obama looking a bit lonely. Could it be that they no longer regard it as an urgent threat that some time later in this century the air may get a bit warmer?

In effect, this is all that’s left of the global-warming emergency the U.N. declared in its first report on the subject in 1990. The U.N. no longer claims that there will be dangerous or rapid climate change in the next two decades. Last September, between the second and final draft of its fifth assessment report, the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change quietly downgraded the warming it expected in the 30 years following 1995, to about 0.5 degrees Celsius from 0.7 (or, in Fahrenheit, to about 0.9 degrees, from 1.3).

Even that is likely to be too high. The climate-research establishment has finally admitted openly what skeptic scientists have been saying for nearly a decade: Global warming has stopped since shortly before this century began.

Read the rest of this entry »

josh-nurse

Visit cartoons by Josh and buy something!

From the grauniad:
Speaking ahead of an inaugural speech he will give next week as the incoming president of the British Science Association (BSA), Nurse said it was not enough for scientists to sit on the sidelines and sneer when public figures expounded unscientific nonsense.

He urged researchers to forge relationships with politicians, lobbyists, religious figures and leaders of organisations in the hope that they might feel ashamed to misuse scientific evidence.

But if that approach failed, Nurse urged researchers to call offenders out in the media and challenge them in the strongest way possible. “When they are serial offenders they should be crushed and buried,” Nurse said.

The Nobel prize winner will use his presidential address to argue that science has been the most revolutionary act in human history. He will trace the origins of scientific thinking from ancient times through the Copernican and Darwinian revolutions to modern times and warn that threats to science have always existed.

Oh the irony. Copernicus was afraid to publish precisely because he knew that some Nobel Nurse establishment type bigwig would be down on him like a ton of bricks for propounding theory contrary to that the establishment consensus held as immutable.

Paul Nurse is a serial offender himself, and Josh nicely sends him up in this cartoon.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been out of the loop for a while, initially due to being away on holiday, then by a round of job interviews I had to prepare for (no success there), and finally by the hospitalisation of my dear old dad (he’s improving now). I’m immensely grateful to my co-bloggers Tim, Stuart (Oldbrew) and Andrew, who have been minding the shop and putting up lots of interesting articles during my absence – thanks guys.

This period has shown more than ever that the talkshop isn’t a one man band, but a vibrant community of bloggers, contributors, commenters and readers. The theory we are working on is moving along in the background as well as on the blog, along with a couple of other related developments I’ll be able to disclose in due course.

Evening light at Vannes harbour - South Brittany

Evening sunlight at Vannes harbour – South Brittany

Read the rest of this entry »

Active solar regions [image credit: NASA/Goddard]

Active solar regions
[image credit: NASA/Goddard]


New research claims to offer ‘a new set of observations to explore the drivers of solar activity beyond only sunspots.’

The researchers say they have found ‘a new marker to track the course of the solar cycle — brightpoints, little bright spots in the solar atmosphere that allow us to observe the constant roiling of material inside the sun.’

“Thus, the 11-year solar cycle can be viewed as the overlap between two much longer cycles,” said Robert Leamon, co-author on the paper at Montana State University in Bozeman and NASA Headquarters in Washington.

More here: 'Brightpoints': New clues to determining the solar cycle — ScienceDaily.

An important new(ish) paper from a team including Ken McCracken looks at the likely continuing slowdown in solar activity:

McC-etal-fig3

CharlesW. Smith1,2, K. G. McCracken3, Nathan A. Schwadron1,2, and Molly L. Goelzer2,4
1Physics Department, Space Science Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USA, 2Institute for
the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USA, 3Institute of Physical
Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA, 4Department of Chemical Engineering,
University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USA

Abstract
Recent papers have linked the heliospheric magnetic flux to the sunspot cycle with good
correlation observed between prediction and observation. Other papers have shown a strong correlation
between magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux from coronal holes. We combine these efforts with
an expectation that the sunspot activity of the approaching solar minimum will resemble the Dalton or
Gleissberg Minimum and predict that the magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux over the coming decade
will be lower than at any time during the space age. Using these predictions and established theory, we
also predict record high galactic cosmic ray intensities over the same years. The analysis shown here is a
prediction of global space climate change within which space weather operates. It predicts a new parameter
regime for the transient space weather behavior that can be expected during the coming decade.

Read the rest of this entry »

Spot the polar vortex [image credit: BBC]

Spot the polar vortex
[image credit: BBC]


Before the usual media suspects get too worked up at yet another ‘study’ proclaiming something or other about humans and climate effects, let’s note what this well-known IPCC author thinks of it:

‘Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, … said he doesn’t agree with Yoon’s study.’

Read the rest of this entry »

Ferrybridge Power Station fire [image credit: Sky News]

Ferrybridge Power Station fire [image credit: Sky News]


It’s no secret that UK electricity supplies are likely to be stretched at peak times in the coming winter, and probably a few more winters after that, as some coal generation is phased out to meet EU rules, and most of the existing nuclear reactors become obsolete.

The pressure to ensure adequate service is increasing and in response new schemes are in the pipeline. The great unknown of course is: will it be enough?

Read the rest of this entry »

Myth Of Arctic meltdown exposed again

Posted: August 31, 2014 by oldbrew in propaganda, sea ice, Uncertainty

Arctic ice [image credit: NASA]

Arctic ice [image credit: NASA]


This one runs and runs, but as it’s featured in a story in the UK national press (Daily Mail Online) quoting leading climate science figures like professor Judith Curry, we’ll give it another airing.

There does seem to be a good deal of suspect logic being thrown at the inconvenient fact that Arctic sea ice is refusing to go away as predicted by the UN IPCC and assorted like-minded pundits peddling their biases. Claims that ‘natural variability’ is just a confounding factor interfering with the supposed real story – i.e. significant man-made effects – have the appearance of wishful thinking, as no actual data is offered in support.

Read the rest of this entry »

The die of rolling heads lands twice.

Posted: August 31, 2014 by tchannon in Politics

Significant news as the end of the political holiday season approaches.

  • BBC Trust chair chosen replacing Patten
  • EU president chosen replacing Rompuy

The news has been that all choices for the BBC chair was thwarted by Non! A poisoned chalice. Rona Fairhead, former managerial head of the Financial Times Group, involved with HSBC and various other things.

The accepter doesn’t seem notable, managerial journeyman. I assume a non-techie so this does not bode well for sorting out bias and spin.

EU presidency is a whole different matter given a number of thorny issues. Choosing a Pole is notable: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk

This move seems to be addressing the UK threats of leaving the EU but is also from an ex-Soviet satellite. Poland have views on eg. fraking too. And a fluent German speaker.

I am sure there will be acres of opinion on the meaning of these appointment.

Read the rest of this entry »