M.A. Vukcevic: Earthquakes and Geomagnetic Storms

Posted: March 17, 2011 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, climate, Energy, solar system dynamics

Regular contributor M.A. Vukcevic has kindly given permission to reproduce some ongoing research which will be of interest to people learning about earthquakes and their precursor indicators. Vukcevic states:
“the tb’s talkshop does not take any responsibility either for statements or data presented.
Please note that there are number of the geomag parameters which I have not labelled, in case I decide they are no longer relevant, or if pattern does hold for some time I might be able to publish results.”

EARTHQUAKES  AND  GEOMAGNETIC  STORMS
This is an ongoing ‘live’ project (started on 02/03/2011, prompted by the N. Zealand earthquake) to establish if there is a link between the geomagnetic activity (magnetic storms) and acceleration of the earthquake’s occurrence. It is not claimed that geomagnetic storm is a primary cause of any earthquake. However if conditions for an earthquake are ‘ripe’, then solar storm could be a trigger (not the cause) for it, and bring it forward for few hours or days.
There is strong evidence of electromagnetic processes responsible for earthquake triggering, that we study extensively. We will focus here on one correlation between power in solar wind compressional fluctuations and power in magnetospheric pulsations and ground H component fluctuations. The variation of the horizontal component H of the geomagnetic field is the crucial parameter in the Magneto-Seismic Effect MSE to be discussed in a companion paper. The connection of earthquake activity to possible solar or solar wind drivers is not well understood; many authors have attempted correlations in the past with mixed results. Geophysical Research Abstracts,Vol.8,01705, 2006;Lab for Solar and Space Physics, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,Greenbelt, MD   http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/01705/EGU06-J-01705.pdf

Scientists have been tracking and studying substorms for more than a century, yet these phenomena remained mostly unknown until THEMIS went into action. Even more impressive was the substorm’s power. Angelopoulos estimates the total energy of the two-hour event at five hundred thousand billion ( 5 x 10^14 ) Joules. That’s approximately equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2007/11dec_themis/

It is likely that in the electrical terms any tectonic fault is also the weakest point. Geomagnetic storm of 10-11 March coinciding with the Japan’s mega-quake lasted nearly 24 hours.


Click graphs for full size images

14 – 16/03/2011. Calm , no major geomagnetic disturbances.
12 & 13/03/2011 hundreds of aftershocks NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. Surge of quakes in GULF OF CALIFORNIA


J A P A N     M E G A  –  Q U A K E
MAP Mag 9.0 2011/03/11 05:46:24 lat 38.322    lon 142.369  NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
23 HOUR LONG GEO-MAGNETIC STORM

More charts can be found here: Graphs and Formulae
© m.a. vukcevic

Comments
  1. A recent swarm of earthquakes (11 earthquakes) happening in La Ligua, north of Santiago, Chile (500 km. north of the last year 8.9 Concepcion earthquake).

  2. vukcevic says:

    Hi TB
    Yhe top graph is updated daily, so a link http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm may be useful. Two blobs in graph are the moon’s perihelion and aphelion (new and full moon). I’ve just added more introductory text, which may help in understanding mechanism of the possible link as well as a sketch of electromagnetic and mechanical forces configuration .

  3. Michele says:

    Maxi-post

    My research for you mischa !

    Important:
    Tunguska 30-06-1908
    Page 112

    http://www.earth-prints.org/bitstream/2122/2755/3/Sassara.pdf

    ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON
    SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES:
    LONG-TERM FORECAST

    http://www.khalilov.biz/pdf/About%20possible%20influence%20of%20solar%20activity%20upon%20seismic%20and%20volcanic%20activities%203.pdf

    Change in magnetic field: an early warning system to understand
    seismotectonics

    http://www.aip.de/thinkshop/posterpaper/mukherjee1.pdf

    On the relation between solar activity and seismicity

    http://fedgeno.com/documents/on-the-relation-between-solar-activity-and-seismicity.pdf

    Relationship between global seismicity and
    solar activities

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/buvw2tq081013210/

    PLANETARY CONFIGURATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

    http://www.esc-web.org/papers/potsdam_2004/sce_venkatanathan.pdf

    Tide-forming forces and earthquakes

    http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1967.pdf

    Principal regulatrities in the distribution of major earthquakes relative to solar
    and lunar tides and other cosmic forces

    http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1968.pdf

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/753717276h869880/

    Solar activity and global seismicity of the earth

    Variation of Lunar-Solar Tidal Force and Earthquakes in Taiwan Island of China

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/

    Rudolf falb

    http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?_r=1&res=9F00E3DC1739E233A25755C2A9609C94669FD7CF

  4. Michele says:

    My research for you mischa !

    Important:
    Tunguska 30-06-1908
    Page 112

    http://www.earth-prints.org/bitstream/2122/2755/3/Sassara.pdf

    ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON
    SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES:
    LONG-TERM FORECAST

    http://www.khalilov.biz/pdf/About%20possible%20influence%20of%20solar%20activity%20upon%20seismic%20and%20volcanic%20activities%203.pdf

    Change in magnetic field: an early warning system to understand
    seismotectonics

    http://www.aip.de/thinkshop/posterpaper/mukherjee1.pdf

  5. Michele says:

    On the relation between solar activity and seismicity

    http://fedgeno.com/documents/on-the-relation-between-solar-activity-and-seismicity.pdf

    Relationship between global seismicity and
    solar activities

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/buvw2tq081013210/

    PLANETARY CONFIGURATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

    http://www.esc-web.org/papers/potsdam_2004/sce_venkatanathan.pdf

    Tide-forming forces and earthquakes

    http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1967.pdf

  6. Michele says:

    Principal regulatrities in the distribution of major earthquakes relative to solar
    and lunar tides and other cosmic forces

    http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1968.pdf

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/753717276h869880/

    Solar activity and global seismicity of the earth

    Variation of Lunar-Solar Tidal Force and Earthquakes in Taiwan Island of China

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/

    Rudolf falb

    http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?_r=1&res=9F00E3DC1739E233A25755C2A9609C94669FD7CF

    STOP
    Bye

  7. vukcevic says:

    Michele
    Thanks for the links, lot to read and learn.
    As I write this, there is another magnetic storm in progress, see second graph from the top of the thread, Tromso magnetometer.

  8. Tenuc says:

    Thanks Vuk. As this is a short ‘blip’ and the large event on should have reduced the build up of potential energy, it won’t produce a major event? Time will tell.

    I’m interested to see if anything happens around March 19, when the moon is unusually close to Earth???

  9. vukcevic says:

    Tenuc
    It was unexpected that number of Eq (M =>4.5) has suddenly fallen in the rest of the world, while there were literally hundreds in the Honshu area, as if somehow the forces locked in the tectonic plates around globe are being directed at this single point. Such scenario is inconceivable with the present understanding, as far as I know, but if so a major ‘rethink’ is due.
    In view of the above, I do not expect anything major in the next few days, since I think the Moon (blobs on my graph) was intensifying tension, gm storm hit last weak and whole thing snapped i.e. the fault gone critical + the early trigger = eq.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Post updated with new diagrams text and reduced clickable for full size images to ease scrolling.

    The top two graphs are auto-updateing, so check back to see what is happening geomagnetically.

  11. tallbloke says:

    Vuk, I think you are right about this. The Moon will act as a trigger, but there is no telling at what phase or where. It is mostly dependent on the criticality of the plate movements. I guess the most we can say is events are more likely when the Moon is closer to Earth, as it has been recently. That said, Perigee at new Moon rather then full might be more effective, because it combines the Moon’s gravity with the Sun’s. That’s just a guess though, there is so much we just don’t know about the forces involved and the way they act on the Earth. Especially the magnetic ones.

  12. Roy Martin says:

    A couple of weeks back the Kiwi weather forecaster Ken Ring put out high alert earthquake advice for the Christchurch area on March 20th., based on concurrence of full moon at perigee. TB, my understanding is that tidal forces of Sun & Moon are additive at full moon, not new moon.

  13. Tenuc says:

    vukcevic says:
    March 18, 2011 at 8:49 am
    “It was unexpected that number of Eq (M =>4.5) has suddenly fallen in the rest of the world, while there were literally hundreds in the Honshu area, as if somehow the forces locked in the tectonic plates around globe are being directed at this single point…”

    Sounds a bit like how condensers blow, with all the energy concentrated at the tiny spot where the dialectic breaks down. Could it be that the geophysical conditions along fault line make them into natural conductors for the Earth’s electric current distribution system?

  14. vukcevic says:

    It was having something similar in mind, but I tend to keep sensible distance from some but not all of the EU ideas. Also there is paper

    http://www.isfep.com/website%2014_013-G.Duma.pdf

    that considers hole thing in the electro-mechanical terms.

  15. tallbloke says:

    Hi Roy,
    well at new Moon the Moon is between us and the Sun.so gravity is additive. But Tides are a bit diferent: the biggest spring tides occur a day or two after both new and full moon. However with this being a Perigean full moon the spring tide on the 20th will be higher still. That’s why Ken RIng forecasts a higher risk of earthquake for the 20th rather than at full Moon on the 19th.

  16. @Vuk: From the link you give above: Dec. 11, 2007: NASA’s fleet of THEMIS spacecraft, launched less than 8 months ago, has made three important discoveries about spectacular eruptions of Northern Lights called “substorms” and the source of their power. The discoveries include giant magnetic ropes that connect Earth’s upper atmosphere to the Sun and explosions in the outskirts of Earth’s magnetic field.
    As the more intense these “northern lights” are, the lowest latitudes they reach. One example of these “eartquake lights” is what was seen before the Sichuan earthquake:

  17. Tenuc says:

    Like you, Vuk, I don’t buy into all of the EU stuff, but do believe that current theories much underestimate the role of electricity in various terrestrial and solar/heliospheric processes.

    Thanks for the link to the paper. I found this graph both interesting and topical…

    tenuc eqs

  18. Tim Channon says:

    Fundamental question: –

    Where does a geomagnetic storm originate?

    I need to try and make what I am asking clearer. We are talking here about EM (electro-magnetic) noise within an EM circuit. That circuit has a physical geometry, where it goes, where?

    Where on that circuit is the noise cause?

  19. tallbloke says:

    Adolfo, without knowing the local atmospheric conditions, it’s hard to comment on that video. The Colour grades from red to blue through the normal rainbow colours from the top to the bottom of the stray low cloud. Could be a ‘rainbow’ only in highlight against the backdrop of those low clouds?

    In my years on the mountainsI’ve seen some interesting highly localised optical atmospheric phenomena including brocken spectres and ‘glories’ (a rainbow coloured halo round the head of the brocken spectre). The angle of view to see those is so restricted that I could only see the ‘glory’ around my own brocken spectre. My walking partner could only see his.

    I think the video is probably showing something more to do with the diffraction of light through water droplets than an electrical aurora.

  20. Tim Channon says:

    It would be nice to eliminate the earth-moon barycentre as in any way involved but I have no way of calculating the location. (and knowing it is correct)

    This is within the earth and generally considered benign.

    Any ideas?

  21. @Tallbloke: That could be possible, as this beautiful and rare halo surrounding the Sun, a few days ago:

    adolfo - sun halo
    however I have witnessed eartquake lights (really two light flashes) during the Aug 16, 2007 earthquake in Peru. ….
    and every time there is…”something in the air” it is not just about finding intelligent causations but about asking where to run away :-)

  22. @Tim Channon: Really a “fundamental question” for our friend Vuk. But there is another: If the moon does not have a magnetic field, what would it be its role in this “circuit”?

  23. vukcevic says:

    Adolfo,
    I have seen number of aurora videos and photos, this does not appear to conform with classic shape of an aurora, but again I could be wrong.

    Geophysicists often work during geomagnetic storms, when strong variations in the Earth’s normal subsurface electric currents allow them to sense subsurface oil or mineral structures. This technique is called magnetotellurics (MT).
    Fluctuations in the MT signal may be able to predict the onset of seismic events. Stationary MT monitoring systems have been installed in Japan since April 1996, providing a continuous recording of MT signals at the Wakuya Station (previously at the Mizusawa Geodetic Observatory) and the Esashi Station of the Geographical Survey Institute of Japan. These stations measure fluctuations in the Earth’s electromagnetic field that correspond with seismic activity (from wikipedia).

  24. tallbloke says:

    Nice pic Adolfo. I saw a similar but double halo round the Moon through thin cloud recently.

    Tim, the E-M barycentre is around 1500km below the surface if I remember correctly. Near the boundary between liquid and mushy stuff. I’ll check it out.

    Here’s a useful page

    http://earthscienceinmaine.wikispaces.com/6.1+Inside+Earth

    Barycentre is 0.732 Earth radius = 1707km below surface

  25. @vukcevic : Instead this seems (at least Japan´s earthquake) to be related with your observation about the magnetic north pole excursion to Siberia. Changing “magnetic fields” are always changing electro-magnetic fields , at a 90° phase angle, as in any alternate current: That 1.414 factor in the power equation it is not other thing than the addition of Siin 45°+ Cos 135°, and, as we all know, the sq.root of 2. Then there is always a square triangle in the EM combination of forces, resulting in the different phenomena we use to call by different names.(This is why was so important for Pytagoras that kind of triangle, where only the “legs” were changing ).
    Thus, your work, it is of the greatest importance.

  26. vukcevic says:

    tb
    Perhaps you could include first graph (with the daily updates) in the ‘Click graphs for full size images’ group, since it appears a bit distorted. Thanks.
    v.

    [done]

  27. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Due to the moons size and composition I believe the gravitation effects will be greatest at new moon and magnetic effects greatest at full moon. This will be a good test as every one is watching all the parts together. pg

  28. Ulric Lyons says:

    I reckon the spike here around the 18th Feb is relevant in the Christchurch quake:

    (they seem to have taken down all the March data !)

  29. P.G. Sharrow says:

    I should have added if the magnetic effects are local the moon timing would have no effect.
    That geomagnetic / earthquake graph is very interesting. Is that geomagnetic field satilite measured or ground measured? pg

  30. vukcevic says:

    P.G
    I use data from the Tromso ground station, at the north of Norway, well within the arctic circle.

  31. vukcevic says:

    This may be of some interest to the moon-watchers:

    http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/dailyEnergy

  32. @vukcevic says: In the link you give for the moon-watchers, the earthquakes´energy it is already an end result of a supposed interaction of fields. If we could know the original amount of energy that triggered these events we could know whether the moon took away or added energy to the process.

  33. Tenuc says:

    Just a thought, Vuk. Is there a station near Tokyo which could be used for the local geomagnetic field? May confirm what you see in the ‘Arctic’ data??

  34. vukcevic says:

    Tenuc
    Yes, here is a chain from Kamchatka, Japan and further south you can see herelink from Carla.
    One went of scale, some broke down. Induced currents circle the globe.

  35. vukcevic says:

    Here is link from Cheifio

    I am on record : no big earthquakes away from Honshu in next 2-4 days unless a huge magnetic storm strikes again. Time will tell.

  36. Tenuc says:

    Thanks Vuk, the Japanese charts reinforce your conclusions. Interestingly there are currently two coronal holes ([CH441] and [CH442]) which should be in an Earth facing position on 19 March…

    It will be interesting to see what the next few days bring.

  37. @Tenuc: But solar weather still quiet. Kp index still low:

    http://www.solarham.com/planetk.htm

  38. P.G. Sharrow says:

    vukcevic says:
    March 18, 2011 at 5:42 pm

    This may be of some interest to the moon-watchers:

    http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/dailyEnergy,

    Vuk; I spent some time studying that graph and could find no corralation to moon phases or distance and earthquakes. Of course the graph was only over only half a cycle, I would prefer 2 or 3 cycles. The intregeing thing is your geomagnetic graphs that presage quakes. It looks to me that a network of sensors may give local warning of up to 6 hours based on your field warpage indicators.
    We may be looking at this solar magnetic effects from the wrong view point. Normal may be magnetic stress and solar effects, a push – pull that cracks the whip. pg

  39. vukcevic says:

    Tenuk, Adolfo, PG
    We need far more data and much longer observation before it is possible to say if there is an effect or no. For time being it can be said that there may be a possibility, as apparently other have noticed, so different kind of direct observation is a worthwhile exercise, but as usual time will tell one way or another.

  40. Tenuc says:

    @Adolfo – Correct. However, should a CME form between CH441 and CH44 it will likely be a big one and this would potentially have a severe impact on our magnetosphere. Predicting CMEs is difficult, but the last thing we need at the moment would be another Carrington Event.

    From Solen – “On March 21-24 there’s a chance of some unsettled and active intervals due to effects from CH441 and CH442.”

  41. frazzled cantabrian says:

    Hi all. THANKYOU!! For the fascination you have that creates such exciting respectful debate as you put the effort into trying to figure out what the heck is happening.I’ve never looked at blogs before the Sept quake here in Chch. In that my home in Pines Beach fell off its piles, broke in half and the liquefaction saw a foot of water at my back door by the time the shaking had stopped. After that I felt I had better absorb some knowledge in order that I could make informed decisions as to my and my family’s future. I moved my 2 beautiful daughters, 8 and 12, to my partners farm block in Cust, North Canterbury. The Feb quake wrought much heavier burdens to our hearts. I really just want to say thankyou. Of the 5 blogs and 4 websites that I check daily for latest info you continue to have up to date informed debate continuing. The NZ geo scientists aren’t offering us much. Ken Ring sparked controversy that has seen thousands leave this region this weekend. I feel totally unreassued that we can predict with any real reliabilty what may occur. Your theories offer more than anything our local experts are offering. So again, thankyou! And in the meantime we await the possibility that there could well be a real big un if the Alpine Fault goes.

  42. vukcevic says:

    ‘SUPER-MOON’ earthquake effect
    It appears that it is going to be an increase in the number of earthquakes caused by coincidence of the ‘super-moon’ and the spring equinox.

  43. Tim Channon says:

    Whilst indirectly pertinent something I noticed awhile ago was the gravitational effect to do with the 1983 massive el nino. This is probably why such events tend to occur at the same time of the year.

    This is a bit clumsy and done much earlier in software development

    http://www.gpsl.net/climate/data/LoD_1983_el_nino_analysis.pdf

  44. tim212 says:

    Curious

    Unfortuantely LoD data is filtered and using iffy methods before it is published. I would appreciate a source of raw data.

  45. Tim Channon says:

    Should have added that is a very rough job (manual kicked), will take some hours of computer time yet to do it properly. Might be the same.

  46. frazzled cantabrian says:

    Woke up today and raced to computer to see if any of you had noticed anything unusual happening.

    Found the following this morning on Mark Quigly’s site.

    http://www.pmcsa.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Information-paper-the-Canterbury-earthquakes.pdf

    This covers most of the questions you hear in the community. I stand corrected that our local experts are not offering much. Still not really that reassuring however. I guess it’s just all about being prepared.

    I note from the GNS map that I have gone from living at liquified beach propery to directly on the end of two small active faults in North Canty.

    My girls have gone to Banks Peninsula with their Dad today to get chickens and go fishing. Hope you are correct re quiet period Vukcevic (mar 18th)

  47. R. de Haan says:

    I am really fascinated by this subject.

    Thanks for posting this and thanks for all the links.

    Great post.

  48. […] I take this seriously. Jim Berkland is a sane person, a qualified geologist who has gathered years of observations and ‘connecting the dots’ to make his prediction presented in this you tube video. Watch the video’s and read the fascinating article, including the postings that carefully lift a new views on the possible relationship between our moon and our sun and the occurrence of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. […]

  49. Tim Channon says:

    Took three and a half hours to complete.. with no graphically visible difference.

    The intention is producing a data model which accounts for regular movement and then that can be compared to the irregularities. To a large extent Lod is regular. (circa r2=0.95 whereas say polar wobble r2 > 0.99)

    This subject in itself is somewhat intersting. Datasets vary greatly and of those that do contain regular or pseudo regular can still have further wrinkles. For example, some datasets can be modelled better if a maths function of the data is modelled, then undone by the inverse action. LoD might be an instance but has been a work of exploration for some time.

    To illustrate I’ve looked at the longer earth movement data and pointed out the data is dreadful, but few people believe me.
    Modern data is believable but even here we probably have at best 20 years of good data. (sometimes taken as 1992 onwards)

    This will give some idea of how the Chandler wobble (polar wobble) works.
    Sum and difference.

    http://www.gpsl.net/climate/data/chandler-wobble-c.pdf

    I have failed to link this to extraterrestrial.

    This is an interesting primary site.
    **news item is about the quake**

    http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/index.php?index=news

    Back to the quakes: –

    I think the tentative conclusion is the nz quake caused mass movement which altered earth rotation and occurred towards the peak of a regular force variation.

    The jp quake came after a possible slow mass movement and not near a force peak. Maybe this was crustal movement.

    There again I am Al Gore’s banker.

  50. vukcevic says:

    Super-moon effect at the moment exactly as predicted, fortunately no major EQs.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm

  51. frazzled cantabrian says:

    Have a look at canterbury and the lower south island.
    We’ve had a few decent ones today since 1300hrs and now a 5.1.
    Can’t see how quakes in the same locality at 5km deep can’t be related to one 90km deep within an hour when there’s been no activity there for years. And surely the lunar influence is doing something? low tide at midnight and the moon is massive. it s a bit eerie.

  52. Michele says:

    @ vukcevic

    says :
    “Super-moon effect at the moment exactly as predicted, fortunately no major EQs.”

    Why ?

    Remember….my post…

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/03/10/ken-ring-earthquake-predictions-in-christchurch-nz/#comment-5616

    The sun is down …no stage heating !

    And much more!
    One other important variable is the polygon of the planetary forces. The moon closes the polygon.
    raffaele bendandi

    There are many variables.
    I repeat the first is the Sun!
    Heat the lithosphere

    Bye Misha

  53. P.G. Sharrow says:

    I don’t know why everyone expects a great quake during a close pass of the moon. The ancients said it took 3 days for the effects to be felt. pg

  54. lgl says:

    vukcevic says:
    March 18, 2011 at 5:42 pm

    “This may be of some interest to the moon-watchers:”

    http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/dailyEnergy

    Indeed. More energy is released when perigee and full moon or apogee and new moon coincides, and when perigee/apogee amplitude is large. Makes sense since this is when the tidal force change is large.

  55. Very Important question:

    Did the CME from japan have a SOUTHERN POLARITY?

    => can you mail this to my address? patrick.geryl att skynet.be?

  56. Ulric Lyons says:

    There is a new >30Mev proton event starting this morning, lets see what that does:

    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

  57. vukcevic says:

    Ulric
    Late last night to early this morning magnetic disturbance was short lasting low-to-medium intensity, so would not expect a noticeable event.

    http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Last24&site=tro2a&

  58. Ulric Lyons says:

    vukcevic says:
    March 21, 2011 at 1:29 pm

    The last high energy (>30Mev) proton burst was from about 23:30 on the 7th, c.3 days before the Japan quake, so we might see a larger event over the next few days.

  59. vukcevic says:

    Adolfo
    Interesting. Even if, in unlikely case, the author Stephen Smith ‘Earthquakes and Volcanoes Mar 18, 2011’ was inspired by my webpage started on Mar 2, 2011, I have number of reservations. However I agree fully with this paragraph:
    Large “telluric currents” have been found circulating through Earth’s crust because our magnetic field induces current flow in conductive strata. Thousands of amperes flow beneath the surface, varying according to conductivity. Since the Sun can affect Earth’s magnetic field through geomagnetic storms, fluctuations in telluric currents can occur when there is an increase in sunspots or solar flares, because they create oscillations in the ionosphere.

    Ulric
    I wil observe and take note.

  60. Nasa said 2 years ago that if a CME with Northern polarity is followed with one with Southern polarity, the magnetic field protection from the Southern field falls away….

    Anybody any idea if this was the case?

    A Giant Breach in Earth’s Magnetic Field
    Nasa 12.16.2008
    Dec. 16, 2008: NASA’s five THEMIS spacecraft have discovered a breach in Earth’s magnetic field ten times larger than anything previously thought to exist. Solar wind can flow in through the opening to “load up” the magnetosphere for powerful geomagnetic storms. But the breach itself is not the biggest surprise. Researchers are even more amazed at the strange and unexpected way it forms, overturning long-held ideas of space physics.

    “At first I didn’t believe it,” says THEMIS project scientist David Sibeck of the Goddard Space Flight Center. “This finding fundamentally alters our understanding of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction.”

    The magnetosphere is a bubble of magnetism that surrounds Earth and protects us from solar wind. Exploring the bubble is a key goal of the THEMIS mission, launched in February 2007. The big discovery came on June 3, 2007, when the five probes serendipitously flew through the breach just as it was opening. Onboard sensors recorded a torrent of solar wind particles streaming into the magnetosphere, signaling an event of unexpected size and importance.

    One of the THEMIS probes exploring the space around Earth, an artist’s concept.

    “The opening was huge—four times wider than Earth itself,” says Wenhui Li, a space physicist at the University of New Hampshire who has been analyzing the data. Li’s colleague Jimmy Raeder, also of New Hampshire, says “1027 particles per second were flowing into the magnetosphere—that’s a 1 followed by 27 zeros. This kind of influx is an order of magnitude greater than what we thought was possible.”

    The event began with little warning when a gentle gust of solar wind delivered a bundle of magnetic fields from the Sun to Earth. Like an octopus wrapping its tentacles around a big clam, solar magnetic fields draped themselves around the magnetosphere and cracked it open. The cracking was accomplished by means of a process called “magnetic reconnection.” High above Earth’s poles, solar and terrestrial magnetic fields linked up (reconnected) to form conduits for solar wind. Conduits over the Arctic and Antarctic quickly expanded; within minutes they overlapped over Earth’s equator to create the biggest magnetic breach ever recorded by Earth-orbiting spacecraft.

    Above: A computer model of solar wind flowing around Earth’s magnetic field on June 3, 2007.
    Background colors represent solar wind density; red is high density, blue is low. Solid black lines trace the outer boundaries of Earth’s magnetic field. Note the layer of relatively dense material beneath the tips of the white arrows; that is solar wind entering Earth’s magnetic field through the breach. Credit: Jimmy Raeder/UNH.

    The size of the breach took researchers by surprise. “We’ve seen things like this before,” says Raeder, “but never on such a large scale. The entire day-side of the magnetosphere was open to the solar wind.”

    The circumstances were even more surprising. Space physicists have long believed that holes in Earth’s magnetosphere open only in response to solar magnetic fields that point south. The great breach of June 2007, however, opened in response to a solar magnetic field that pointed north.

    “To the lay person, this may sound like a quibble, but to a space physicist, it is almost seismic,” says Sibeck. “When I tell my colleagues, most react with skepticism, as if I’m trying to convince them that the sun rises in the west.”

    Here is why they can’t believe their ears: The solar wind presses against Earth’s magnetosphere almost directly above the equator where our planet’s magnetic field points north. Suppose a bundle of solar magnetism comes along, and it points north, too. The two fields should reinforce one another, strengthening Earth’s magnetic defenses and slamming the door shut on the solar wind. In the language of space physics, a north-pointing solar magnetic field is called a “northern IMF” and it is synonymous with shields up!

    “So, you can imagine our surprise when a northern IMF came along and shields went down instead,” says Sibeck. “This completely overturns our understanding of things.”

    Northern IMF events don’t actually trigger geomagnetic storms, notes Raeder, but they do set the stage for storms by loading the magnetosphere with plasma. A loaded magnetosphere is primed for auroras, power outages, and other disturbances that can result when, say, a CME (coronal mass ejection) hits.

    The years ahead could be especially lively. Raeder explains: “We’re entering Solar Cycle 24. For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway. It’s the perfect sequence for a really big event.”

    Sibeck agrees. “This could result in stronger geomagnetic storms than we have seen in many years.”

  61. vukcevic says:

    Re: CME 7th March
    Ejection: http://sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil/images/fast_cme.gif
    My warning on WUWT 10th March (20 or 21UTC): Currently geomagnetic field is getting seriously shaken http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/10/sol-is-finally-waking-up/#comment-617659
    Earth’s MF response10-11th March: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Japan.gif
    Japan Earthquake 11th March 05.46 UTC:

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0001xgp.php

  62. vukcevic says:

    Rog (tallbloke) has been absent for couple of days. Any ideas? Hopefully everything is OK.

  63. Tenuc says:

    Adolfo Giurfa says:
    March 21, 2011 at 2:36 pm

    This is the explanation from the EU perspective:

    http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2011/arch11/110318volcanoes.htm

    Thanks Adolfo for the link. I think there is a good chance that the amount of electricity flowing through the surface of the Earth is high and its effects are ignored by mainstream science. My own view is that crustal fault lines are the main conductors of this variable current and perhaps too much current causes overheating, which then allows any build up of stress to be relieved. We observe this release of pressure as earthquakes/volcanoes, along with associated visible surface electrical effects.

    We still have much to learn, but ignoring observed effects to protect the mainstream meme is not the path to wisdom… :-(

  64. tallbloke says:

    I’m on train home now. Just got wordpress for nokia working again, will be online later. Thanks for minding the store. :)

  65. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Current flows atom to atom. When there is a break the energy has to jump without contact and an EMF spike is created. Faults are a break not a conductor. A stuck fault creates a solid conduction point at the sticking point. The warpage of the surrounding rock creates a pizoelectric effect that spikes as the fault stuck point gives up. This local field and its changes would gives the “Vukcevic Effect” to the earths magnetic field. The right instrumentation might be the bases of a real early warning for earthquakes. pg

  66. @P.G. Sharrow
    However to renew our view of reality we should consider matter, mass, also an electrical phenomena. It is as impossible to find in nature something not being “chemical” as it is to find something not being electrical, or, what is the same, something not neutral. Absolute neutrality, as zero temperature, means non existence at all.
    Call it, as you prefer, ¨warping”, but matter it is not neutral EVER.

  67. Tenuc says:

    P.G. Sharrow says:
    March 21, 2011 at 8:49 pm
    Current flows atom to atom…

    As I understand it, PG, Earth’s electric current is produced in the conductive crust by the varying magnetic field. This induced AC current is then ‘pushed to the surface’ by the skin effect with geological fault lines concentrating the current along its boundary. However, as Adolfo reminds us, it is not as straightforward as that and many other factors will influence how current flows at any moment in time. Sea water is also a good conductor and will alter how current flows around the globe.

  68. vukcevic says:

    P.G.
    I like idea of “Vukcevic Effect” (LOL)
    So to show my appreciation I have added the illustration of “Vukcevic Effect” as suggested P.G. Sharrow !
    Scroll down to sketch no.3 in http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm

  69. P.G. Sharrow says:

    I see Vuk. 8-) looks like the pinch is very soon, all most now. pg

  70. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Got any Idea where? If Richard is right it should happen on the east side of the Pacific. The New Madrid is starting to move. The quakes are moving toward Conroy, Arkansas. The quakes are getting larger and deeper. Not a good sign. I must go back and re survey the world map. pg

  71. @Tenuc

    To see reality properly, not necessarily what we like, we must see the earth in a bigger parameter scale; say the galaxy or a few light years scale: How would we call that small mving point some call earth?..an electron perhaps?…and perhaps able to pass through two holes at the same time!…but what it is more surprising: We do not like or want changes in it!. Time is subjective, you know, what only survives is “tempo”, or “frequency”. Then, what laws do survive in that “dimension” (size)?: There you are: Only energy, ratio between charges, space (wavelength)….
    Where is it that, and so dear, “matter” we all stick to?, are we afraid of abandoning the mother´s womb?. Then, again, let´s get a closer look at that moving charge…..

    [reply] This belongs on the E.U. open thread, but I’ll let it through, this time.

  72. I think what we are going to see is a peak effect around March 30 when Jupiter is perihelion to April 3rd when Saturn is in synod conjunction with the earth. With the Alaskan peak activity about 5 days either side of the center of that time.

    Then a rotation down the Eastern edge of the ROF down the west coast of North America, for the first two weeks of April 2011. Commensurate with the large outbreak of tornadoes in the USA.

    Followed by central America Haiti and Dominican republic areas, then down the west coast of South America. by the end of April 2011.

  73. P.G. Sharrow says:

    vukcevic says:
    March 21, 2011 at 11:11 pm
    RE sketch #3 now imagine at the x points a EMF flare ” earthspot” that would warp the local magnetic field and would cause a magnetic kickback when it began to break loose. pg

  74. tallbloke says:

    Patrick Geryl says:
    March 21, 2011 at 6:04 pm (Edit)
    Nasa said 2 years ago that if a CME with Northern polarity is followed with one with Southern polarity, the magnetic field protection from the Southern field falls away….

    Hi Patrick and Richard,
    WUWT had a thread on this last year. Some interesting viewpoints as I remember.

  75. tallbloke says:

    Richard Holle says:
    March 22, 2011 at 2:06 am (Edit)
    I think what we are going to see is a peak effect around March 30 when Jupiter is perihelion to April 3rd when Saturn is in synod conjunction with the earth. With the Alaskan peak activity about 5 days either side of the center of that time.

    Then a rotation down the Eastern edge of the ROF down the west coast of North America, for the first two weeks of April 2011. Commensurate with the large outbreak of tornadoes in the USA.

    Followed by central America Haiti and Dominican republic areas, then down the west coast of South America. by the end of April 2011.

    OK, I’m copying that to the predictions page!

    Thanks Richard.

  76. tallbloke says:

    Anyone else noticing the slowdown in the solar wind? Jupiter perihelion effect anyone?

  77. vukcevic says:

    R. de Haan thanks for the link.

    If things do not pickup in a day or two, it looks that the super-moon and spring equinox effect is on the wane (top graph updated).

  78. tallbloke says:

    frazzled cantabrian says:
    March 20, 2011 at 9:41 am (Edit)
    Have a look at canterbury and the lower south island.
    We’ve had a few decent ones today since 1300hrs and now a 5.1.
    Can’t see how quakes in the same locality at 5km deep can’t be related to one 90km deep within an hour when there’s been no activity there for years. And surely the lunar influence is doing something? low tide at midnight and the moon is massive. it s a bit eerie.

    Thanks for that info and a belated welcome to the blog. Over here in nice steady Britain where the strongest quakes rattle a few ornaments it’s hard to comprehend what you’ve been through. Our best wishes to you, your family, and all in NZ affected by the quakes there.

    Just catching up, I’ve been away for a few days on a new job training programme and only had time to approve a few posts and check stats. Looking forward to reading through this evening.

    Cheers

    Rog

  79. Take a look at the far side of the sun http://www.solarcycle24.com/stereosphere.htm
    All of the activity on the side with Jupiter, Neptune, and Uranus is where the volume of wind and peak speed is at this time. JMHO just my…….

  80. tallbloke says:

    Hi Richard,

    Yes, and the Earth was on the other side of the Sun from Jup and Saturn when
    the (Earth directed) solar wind died in 1999 at Jup perhelion too.

    It’ll be interesting to see what happens over the next 10 days.

  81. Tenuc says:

    News Flash…

    “THREE earthquakes greater than 6.4-magnitude rocked Japan last night…

    The first and third quakes measured 6.6-magnitude, while the second was recorded as a 6.4-magnitude shock, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).

    The third quake was at a depth of only 15km off the eastern coast of the country, raising fears of further damage to the already devastated region.”

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/two-survivors-found-under-rubble-nine-days-after-japanese-earthquake/story-e6frf7lf-1226026435191

    Looks like the fat lady ain’t singing yet… :-{

  82. Tenuc says:

    @Richard Holle – The Earth facing central region of the sun is almost blank at the moment as two large coronal holes rotate out of alignment…

    The calm before the storm perhaps???

  83. Tenuc says:

    @Richard Holle – The image below shows that current auroral activity in the SH is strongly distorted towards Australasia…

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapS.html

    Wonder what could be causing this???

  84. Tenuc says:

    Thanks Vuk. Does this mean that auroral activity is always locked to the magnetic pole, or does it drift about according the changes in the external magnetic field?

  85. Tenuc says:

    Thanks, Vuk. Do you know if auroral activity is always locked to the pole, or does it tend to drift about due to the impact of the varying heliospheric field?

  86. vukcevic says:

    Tenuc
    Aurora is caused by interaction between solar wind with the Earth’s magnetosphere, so its intensity and geographic spared is dependant on the intensity of solar wind at the time, but it is locked into the Earth’s magnetic field. You can find more interesting stuff here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora_(astronomy)#Origin

  87. The lunar declination will be maximum South culmination on the 25th March, over a dozen tornadoes already in Iowa area so far today.

  88. So, it seems, that earthquakes/plates and/or faults movement/volcanoes´eruption are not a cause but a consequence:
    Once the added energy changes the legs of the triangle of forces, it happens to develope all the whole “science dictionary” of phenomena: Induction, short-circuiting, rocks melting, lava, lava/plasma acceleration, the subterranean magma belts of the “earth dynamo”, plate tectonics, faults breaking, resonance , etc.
    Wherever there is a “relief valve”, a volcano, this allows for the releasing of forces while some is released as visible “earthquake lights” before, during or after earthquakes/volcanic eruptions, or your house or mine falling….
    I wonder if currents above ( all meteorological events) mimic and follow the ones below crust/slag, like the “jet streams”, the westerlies or easterlies, La Niña or El Niño, the sea currents, the warm and the cold ones (water is diamagnetic and conductive).

  89. vukcevic says:

    There is a prolong geomagnetic disturbance currently going on.

    http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Last24&site=tro2a&

  90. tallbloke says:

    I’m in a really busy and crucial phase with my work life. Apologies for being AWOL here. Please put up suggestions for new threads on the suggestions page and I’ll try to keep the blog rolling along with my other commitments. If anyone feels like taking on an editorial role let me know. We have a great team here, and I want to keep it together, along with some help from the contributors and authors. It’s your blog too.

  91. @Vukcevic
    Can it be determined where on the earth this geomagnetic disturbance does it affect more?
    If the moon plays any role in this, now it is on :
    Moon RA: 15h 27m 0s Declination: -21° 36.1′

  92. Roger Andrews says:

    Tallbloke:

    You’re in a crucial phase with your work life. Well, I think that’s happened to most of us at some point in our careers. Can only wish you the best of luck with whatever it is you’re doing.

    But while you still have a living to earn I have accumulated earnings to live on, which leaves me with more free time than you have (I also have a gardener so I don’t have to do my own digging). This being the case I would be happy to render whatever assistance I can to help the blog along. So bearing in mind that I’m a computer semi-illiterate who works with an old wood-burning machine put together from spare parts by Mexican software pirates, let me know how I might help.

    I’m already working on some new solar-related threads that I will communicate as soon as I have text & figures ready. If you don’t like them, well, no harm done.

    Roger

  93. vukcevic says:

    Rog
    All the best !

  94. vukcevic says:

    San Diego State University’s Immersive Visualization Center is staging five-day virtual exercise of a simulated earthquake followed by a tsunami. It includes participation from the U.S. European Command, National Institute of Urban Search and Rescue, Sahana Foundation and Humanity Road, along with vendors, application developers and other groups.
    The scenario is a simulated earthquake in the Balkans, followed by a tsunami in the Adriatic Sea that damages key resources and critical shoreline infrastructure in several countries.

    As it happens, I was born and grew up in the area, have many relatives and regularly go there for holydays. It is an earthquake zone, there was a severe quake in 1979

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Montenegro_earthquake

    More details of about the five-day virtual exercise at: https://sites.google.com/a/inrelief.org/24/home

  95. In 1998, the Lunar Prospector detected a surprisingly high voltage change as it passed through Earth’s magnetotail. The magnetotail is part of a plasma sheath that envelops our planet. The Moon passes through it once a month during full moon phase. The electric differential was found to occur during that passage.

    http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/00current.htm

  96. Tenuc says:

    Hope all goes well for you Rog, I’m sure thing will keep going for a while.

    ( Note to ‘team’ – while the cat’s away the mice… :-) )

  97. Tenuc says:

    Another significant earthquake today…

    M 6.8 Myanmar (Burma) March 24, 2011 13:55:12 UTC

  98. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Vuk; I am still examining the progression of your earthquake / geomagnetic graph. So far I see that a full moon, moon outboard, surpresses the magnetic field. Actually the sun surpresses the earths magnetic field chaos. And the dark of the moon shields the earth from the sun, more chaos. That Great Japan quake sure discharged the system. Most interesting. 8-) pg

  99. vukcevic says:

    P.G thanks for the note. I think it is still too early to know what is exactly happening, but pre- and post-Japan are certainly different. Will follow for couple of months to see if there anything more substantial to it.

  100. I was just wondering if, contrary to “consensus”, perhaps there is no magma everywhere under our feet, but in certain currents or “rivers”, which move on when there is a field acting on them. You see, when earthquakes happen along the coasts of the pacific “Ring of Fire”they are shallow (10-30 km.below surface/crust/slag) while the more inland they are the deeper: Look at Google earth w/ usgs enable and see the earthquakes in south america. Could it be that these currents follow, in some way, the magnetic fields above?. It could be interesting to know, also, where there are big magnetite deposits. I know of one in Peru which was explored magnetometrically and found it to be of 20,000 millions of tons of magnetite, aproximately located 75 E , 13 S.

  101. Hey Vuk: Something is happening in Oregon:
    M 4.4, off the coast of Oregon

    Date: Friday, March 25, 2011 23:19:04 UTC
    Friday, March 25, 2011 03:19:04 PM at epicenter
    Depth: 10.20 km (6.34 mi)

  102. Tenuc says:

    Interesting cluster of 3 earthquakes of coast of Japan…

    M 4.8, near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
    36.340°N 141.020°E
    Saturday, March 26, 2011 16:06:52 UTC
    Depth: 41.80 km (25.97 mi)

    M 4.7, off the east coast of Honshu, Japan
    37.106°N 143.052°E
    Saturday, March 26, 2011 13:17:00 UTC
    Depth: 36.70 km (22.80 mi)

    M 5.2, off the east coast of Honshu, Japan
    36.963°N 143.279°E
    Saturday, March 26, 2011 12:52:53 UTC
    Depth: 37.60 km (23.36 mi)

    The fat lady is still singing!

  103. Roger Andrews says:

    Tenuc: Aren’t these just aftershocks along the same plate boundary?

  104. Tenuc says:

    @Roger – Yes, aftershocks. However, when they continue in large numbers at ~M5 is gives a good idea of how much energy is still being dissipated in the area. Not something I would want to experience.

    Interesting (almost) real-time map of ongoing events here (quite slow to load)…

    http://mapserver.gis.ttu.edu/japanquake/

    Two more M5 events today.

  105. Tim Channon says:

    Adolfo Giurfa says:
    March 25, 2011 at 10:57 pm

    [About crustal magnetism]

    Magnetic curie point of materials.

    This applies to earth rock and is exploited as causing a proxy record for earth magnetic polarity in history. Magma rises to the sea bed along the deep ocean crustal boundaries where they are spreading, mid Atlantic ridge is the classic instance. As the rock cools through it’s abrupt curie point the magnetic field through the rock is frozen as the rock turns into a permanent magnet.

    The magnetic field of the earth is posited to be caused by the circulation of the upper core. The core is at high temperature and under great pressure, conditions which do not exist naturally on the surface and are at best very difficult to achieve in the laboratory, ie. we know very little.

    There is of course much more involved including external influences.

    http://www.iscid.org/encyclopedia/Paleomagnetism

  106. vukcevic says:

    At the moment ‘all quiet’ both on the solar and eq front

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm

    (possibly case of a damp oscillation ? )

  107. Vuk: Just read the following on electrical damp oscillation circuit:

    http://www.myoops.org/twocw/nctu/upload/physics/physical_experiment/2-5.pdf

    and realized that your insinuation is …..perverse :-)

  108. Tim Channon says:

    A damped oscillation would mean there an energy storage mechanism.

    A fast transient can excite such an entity and it goes “bong”.

    Do you have any idea on what that might be?

  109. vukcevic says:

    Adolfo
    Electro-magnetic oscillations, (what is that?), mechanical, acoustic and even the South Pacific ones, are all of damped type, since certain amount of energy is released. It is only because additional energy input is available that the oscillations can continue.
    Tim
    As tectonic plates move along a fault, often further movement is halted by shape of the fault, the lithosphere rocs are compressed, result is energy build up in the area affected by compression, i.e. there is storing of potential energy
    Degree of rock deformation is limited, once limit is exceeded there is ruptures along the fault’s face, i.e. eq. The rapture is usually of elastic rebound type, generating seismic waves. We can only guess how these seismic waves reverberate within depths of the globe’s interior by the effects detected at the surface.

  110. Roger Andrews says:

    Pielke Jr. has an interesting plot of 20th century earthquakes > 8 at http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/03/roger-bilham-on-honshu-earthquake-and.html

    There’s no correlation with solar activity that I can see.

  111. Tim Channon says:

    V: That suggests that if there is a constant magnetic field there ought to be a modulation as a result of crustal change. On top of that piezioelectric generation will be huge but massively attenuated before it gets out.

    In that context the solar noise is a pest.

    What I have in mind is distinctly different from solar perturbation as a causal.

    We seem to have a zillion different ways of measuring solar originating noise or it’s effects. A question is whether that is acting as a carrier where crustal change is impressed.

    I think it would be useful to separate the two.

    Switching hats to design engineer, all the datasets seem low grade, possibly because they are outward looking at solar and not bothering with high grade detailed terrestrial. I think most of the instrumentation is ancient with better technology only very recent, I know because I was bringing this in.

    I note that there ought to be a way of distinguishing crustal from solar: propagation speed, the exact timing.

    From this point of view a crustal transient will ping the earth into ringing, with known resonant modes such as relating to ionisphere bounce. If this is tripped from the crust it will precede a solar signal.

  112. Carla says:

    Roger Andrews says:
    March 28, 2011 at 2:45 pm
    Pielke Jr. has an interesting plot of 20th century earthquakes > 8 at http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/03/roger-bilham-on-honshu-earthquake-and.html

    There’s no correlation with solar activity that I can see.
    ~
    20 40 60 then the 80’s (must have been in the 7 magnitude range and didn’t make his graphic), then 100. All hail..roughly..

    But seriously for our more challenged readers like myself.. came across this tutorial available online.

    HIs teaching method encapsulates the magnitude of earth’s telluric current system, through historical discoveries, Oluou text book physics on spaceweather, to the Parkinsons plane and association with Christchurch NZ to the tellurics at arcs such as the Japanese islands. Also includes ionsopheric induced waves and electric currents. Not to mention mankinds conduits overlaid across the planet and its effects on telluric currents.
    The Earth’s Electrical Surface Potential
    A summary of present understanding
    (January 2007)
    by Gaetan Chavalier, PhD,
    Director of Research, California Institute for Human Science,
    Graduate School & Research Center, Encinitas, CA

    http://www.earthinginstitute.net/commentaries/gaetan_electrical_surface.pdf

    In the midst of ongoing searches on this topic.. we come across this one Vuks.

    The Geomagnetic Coast Effect
    W. D. PARKINSON
    Department of Geology, University of Tasmania
    Hobart 7005, Tasmania, Australia
    F. W. JONES
    Department of Physics, Institute of Earth and Planetary Physics, University of Alberta
    Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2J1

    this one had a lef.org on its address, Vuks, ace up his sleeve again, explains Parkinsons plane ..plain and simple as part 2 in the intro..etc..

  113. vukcevic says:

    Carla,
    Thanks, lot of very useful info there.

  114. @Carla says:
    March 28, 2011 at 8:32 pm
    That Earth’s Electrical Surface Potential makes me remember the John Michel books on “ley lines”, etc. about the management on ground currents the people of the neolithic had . (John Michel wrote about these in his “A view over Atlantis” and “A new view over Atlantis”)

    [reply] Also try Guy Underwoods ‘Patterns of the Past

  115. @Carla: More about those electrical facts: Have you wonder why tree trunks look like paper condensers, with concentric rings of conductive sap and dielectric cellulose, and why are there thunderstorms on areas with vegetation?

    http://www.giurfa.com/artrees.html

    BTW: When there is bad weather (cold) those dielectric rings are thinner and the atmosphere (earth´s dielectric),also, as we have seen recently, also diminishes in height. (presumably to keep the energy balance).

  116. Carla says:

    vukcevic says:
    March 28, 2011 at 9:22 pm

    Adolfo Giurfa says:
    March 28, 2011 at 10:41 pm
    @Carla says:
    March 28, 2011 at 8:32 pm
    That Earth’s Electrical Surface Potential..
    ~
    Vuks, “Earth’s Electrical Surface Potential,” is an excellent summary for even a seasoned reader of this kind of material. Would reinforce and expand a persons understanding of the topic. Would recommend to Stephen Wilde and some of the others.

    Thanks Adolfo, remember something about lay lines but not much.

    TB typo on ‘the Docs’ name was an ooops.

    Wish I had more time for this stuff..

  117. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Adolfo Giurfa says:
    March 28, 2011 at 10:41 pm

    I find ley lines and dousing an interesting curiosity. Some people have no ability and others are quite capable. In the hands of a brother-in-law the rods were dead. In my hands they danced like an ants antena. When I placed a hand on his shoulder the rods worked for him and when I removed my hand they stopped working. pg

  118. @Vuk:
    What is your opinion about this?:

    M 4.8, near the coast of Yemen
    Date: Wednesday, March 30, 2011 01:42:50 UTC
    Wednesday, March 30, 2011 04:42:50 AM at epicenter
    Depth: 10.90 km (6.77 mi)

    M 4.4, Gulf of Aden
    Date: Wednesday, March 30, 2011 01:27:52 UTC
    Wednesday, March 30, 2011 04:27:52 AM at epicenter
    Depth: 10.00 km (6.21 mi)

    At both sides of the same fault and……..

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v298/n5870/abs/298149a0.html

  119. Tim Channon says:

    vukcevic @ Assuming you are still here. In another thread you talk about the Parker Spiral and comment about why Mercury.

    Venus and Mars do _not_ have a magnetic field.

  120. vukcevic says:

    Tim
    I am not certain what you referring to. I think Jupiter makes about 75% of the electro-magnetic feedback, the rest is Saturn through the J-S synodic period, as it is clearly demonstrated here:

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm

  121. Tenuc says:

    From Solen Solar Terrestrial Activity Report. 2 April 2011.

    “The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on April 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 290 and 494 km/s. A geomagnetic disturbance has been in progress since 9h UTC. The source of the disturbance is uncertain. While a coronal hole is a possibility, solar wind density has been high since the onset of the disturbance. SOHO/MTOF recorded a quick increase in solar wind speed, density and thermal velocity near 16h UTC.

    Solar flux estimated at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 108.9 (decreasing 25.7 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap – based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.1). Three hour interval K indices: 11123443 (planetary), 11123443 (Boulder).”

    It will be interesting to observe what effect this has on seismic activity.

  122. vukcevic says:

    Tenuc
    Last night’s (20pm-02am UTC) surge in the geomagnetic activity

    http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Last24&site=tro2a&

    looks like (if one is to believe it) equalled to the rise due to the super-moon on 19th

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EQr.htm

  123. Tim Channon says:

    I am stating that two of the planets have no magnetic field and therefore should be excluded from data.

    This might explain why Mercury has some kind of association with flares but Venus does not.

  124. It is my perception that the recent surge in solar wind speed and density is a result of the upcoming Saturn synod conjunction with Earth on the 3rd April 2011. In my hypothesis there is an increase in the magnetic flux felt at these synod conjunctions due to the solar wind is the current carrier of the magnet fields side of the homopolar charging effects that drive the LOD shifts by inductive actions.

    The shift in the pacific plate [being loose from the mantle] should move to the center then drift East as the earth slows down post Saturn conjunction, so quakes should shift to the East side of the ROF after the third.

  125. Ulric Lyons says:

    @Richard Holle says:
    April 2, 2011 at 10:36 pm

    “In my hypothesis there is an increase in the magnetic flux felt at these synod conjunctions due to the solar wind..”

    Often there is a decrease too, it all depends where the other bodies are.

  126. Ulric Lyons says:

    @Tim Channon says:
    April 2, 2011 at 3:20 pm

    “This might explain why Mercury has some kind of association with flares but Venus does not.”

    Venus does, so does Ceres. so time to rethink the mechanisms.

  127. @Ulric Lyons says:

    You are most probably right; perhaps Mercury, as it is the nearest to the Sun, takes a small part of the power from the intergalactic current. If we could put the Sun off for a moment we could see, at the center of it a small solid core which, by now, takes all the power from the galaxy center.

  128. Mercury´s eccentricity:
    Mercury eccentricity=0.21
    Has been explained as a consequence of its high EM field.

  129. Roger Andrews says:

    Vuk:

    If you’re still around:

    I just came across your recent post on WUWT relative to the Courtillot presentation. Discussing anything on WUWT is close to impossible, so I thought I would post a response here.

    Your WUWT post said:

    “Dr. Courtillot has one big problem common to all ‘sun devotees’. Between 1940-1960 there was unprecedented high solar activity ( presumably high UV too) and the global temperatures turned down (no global warming but global cooling !), one might say a case s . d’s law. If you have hypothesis, let alone theory, then you need to explain that global temperature downturn. The CO2 proponents have dismally failed.
    Only credible explanations is in the oceans’ currents, and it is perfectly simple explanation, if one cares to understand how and where ocean circulation and currents are subject to well known physical processes, and how they interact with climate.”

    The temperature downturn in 1940-1970 affected only surface air temperature. It indeed coincides with changes from “warm” to “cold” phases in the PDO and AMO, but it also coincides with the increase in sulfate aerosols after 1945 and with the decrease in solar intensity after about 1950. So probably it had multiple origins.

    There was, however, no downturn in SST, only a decrease in the rate of warming between 1950 and 1975. As discussed in (http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/02/13/roger-andrews-the-solar-sst-relationship/) this flattening can be explained by solar changes only.

    Incidentally, do you know if the text of the Courtillot presentation is available anywhere?

  130. vukcevic says:

    Roger
    Agree with all you said, indeed I did linked to ENSO-PDO-AMO graphs.
    In my next post on WUWT, I made a further reference in relation to the CET.
    What matters for the northern hemisphere’s climate are the excursions of the jet-stream; I think these are directly affected by the high latitude currents in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This is borne out by correlations as shown in:

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PDO-ENSO-AMO.htm

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NAP.htm

    World-wide SST due to oceans thermal capacity and volume is a bit less volatile than the land ST. WUWT got ‘you tube’ links to both Courtillot’s and Shaviv’s presentations.

  131. Tenuc says:

    @ Vuk and Roger – Trouble is global average temperature is a very poor proxy for the amount of energy in Earth systems, and it is the long term level of enrgy which causes change to weather regime/climate. We need to find better methods to directly measure Earth total energy at any delta-t, as current estimates are not fit for purpose regarding this.

    The empirical evidence from history shows us that a quiet sun, as observed during the Maunder/Dalton minimum, leads to a cooling world, while a more energetic sun gives us climate optimums. Other factors alter the rate of change, but solar activity in all its forms is the ultimate driver.

  132. vukcevic says:

    This is what I just posted on WUWT, so you might just as well, read it here.
    a. Occasionally I refer to ‘global temperature’ (it doesn’t exist), since that is current ‘in thing’, however all my graphs (except for one) are referenced to CETs as the longest and the most reliable temperature record available.
    b. Here I am going to consider a specific case of the summer’s versus winter’s CETs for ~ 300 years (1700-1990) period.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETsw.htm

    What do we see?
    – Summer temperatures are relatively constant within range of + – 0. 5 degree C. No temperature rise!
    – Winter temperatures vary a bit more – 0.5 to +1 degree C, but with gradient of. ~ ¼ degree per century, but again winters around 1725 were just as warm as those of 1990.
    What I conclude?
    Summer temperature is mainly controlled by amount of sunshine, with a bit of a stretch one might find some correlation to the solar activity, but ~300 year result is nill.
    Winters depend on the wind direction, south-westerly warm, any of the north directions cold, and these are directly controlled by the jet stream.
    Spring and autumn are a bit in between two. From this graph

    you can see that most of warming happened from 1680-1725 with a second bit 1985- 2010. CETs show that all assumptions about both CO2 and solar activity as driving factors appear to be misplaced.

  133. vukcevic says:

    May I add this to the post above: Jet stream is formed in higher latitudes, where winter insolation is low (at the most only few hours a day), so it is unlikely that it is controlled by solar output. Polar vortex is actually result of the low insolation factor.
    However, the North Atlantic Ocean’s currents (subpolar gyre) with great conflict between the warm waters of the North Atlantic drift current and the cold East Greenland currents. This is place where warm waters surface, releasing accumulated thermal energy into air 24h a day, and in my view the primary cause of jet stream deviations.

    There is a similar location in the Antarctica, controlling the southern polar vortex.

  134. Roger Andrews says:

    Tenuc:

    “global average temperature is a very poor proxy for the amount of energy in Earth systems”. Indeed it is – relative to global surface air temperature. But on the other hand the global surface is where we live, so we have to take some notice of it.

    As for ocean heat content, the problem is a) the record only goes back to 1955 and b) no one seems to be able to agree on how much OHC has increased since then (I’m sure I’ve linked to the Lyman paper before, but here it is again: http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/filesRobust%20warming%20of%20the%20global%20upper%20ocean.pdf)

    Probably the best overall indicator of stored energy is the SST record, which goes back a fair way and which is a proxy for OHC. Changes in SST are correlated with changes in TSI before about 1970, but after that the situation becomes a little more complicated. The only correlation that seems to persist is the detrended solar vs. SST-SAT temperature differential, which shows the sine-wave shape all the way from 1880 to the present. Still don’t know what causes it, though.

    Vuk:

    I’m intrigued by the summer-winter temperature differences on your CET plot, which seem to show at least some correlation with solar activity. I’m going to take a closer look to see if anything shows up – I doubt that it will. but you never know. And if I finish up reinventing the wheel, no harm done.

  135. Ulric Lyons says:

    @vukcevic says:
    April 5, 2011 at 10:00 pm

    The range for July is 13.4C to 19.7C, that is 6.3C.
    Every monthly deviation from normals through the whole series since 1659 is due to solar factors, including all short term latitudinal displacements of the jet stream, and meridional/zonal jet stream flow changes.

  136. vukcevic says:

    Ulric
    Agree, those are smoothed temps (10 year period). Individual years seasonal temps vary more, while single months great deal more.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-D.htm

    I suppose when one goes further down the time scale variation increases.
    Set of data (NAP) I am using

    is only one I know that accurately picks out some of the main points:
    distinct down-up-down 1650-1750 period
    flat-lines next 100 years
    accurately tracks 1900-2010 including contentious 1950-1985 period and possible forthcoming downturn.
    One major exception is 1880-1900 where it goes in the opposite direction. It is not a predictor, since there is no way of knowing or extrapolating the movement further ahead. It also should not be assumed that it accurately reflects any short period of years, but since it is totally solar or climate independent set of data, I think considering its trend it has to be an important if not a major forcing factor.

  137. Tenuc says:

    vukcevic says:
    April 5, 2011 at 10:35 pm
    “May I add this to the post above: Jet stream is formed in higher latitudes, where winter insolation is low (at the most only few hours a day), so it is unlikely that it is controlled by solar output. Polar vortex is actually result of the low insolation factor…

    There are other solar factors at work, regarding polar vortex formation, apart from lack of TSI. The polar stratosphere is strongly ionised and the vortex is driven or effected by the strength of the polar magnetic field. It is no surprise that the Arctic vortex is prone to split into two smaller vortices, as the magnetic north pole is a double pole. This widens the area of the vortex which results in cold air spilling down to lower latitudes and cooling the NH temperate zone.

    When the sun is quiet the atmosphere becomes very compact, with neutral atoms and charged particles more densely packed. When this happens it only takes a small change in the strength of the solar wind to cause massive shifts in cold atmospheric mass from the poles to the temperate zones.

    Variation in the strength of the polar vortices also has a profound effect on atmospheric chemistry. At -80 Celsius and below, the Arctic stratosphere has been especially cold this winter and this has resulted in a record ozone loss of ~40% (previous record over the last few years ~30%).

    There are many big effects from changes in solar activity beyond TSI.

  138. vukcevic says:

    Roger
    Solar cycle influence is not excluded, sometimes it is very obvious, particularly in the summer months, but then makes no or very little difference in the winters when insolation is low, and winters are the ones that defined rising trend.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETsw.htm

    So solar cycle is noticeable but it long term (beyond cycle max-cycle min period) I think it is not significant factor.

    Tenuc
    Sounds familiar, see second part (Stratosphere Influences Winter Weather) of

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC1.htm

    Jet stream gets split up by rise of warm air, which normally is provided by heat release either from ocean currents, or occasionally by volcanic eruptions:

    http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/56/34/77/PDF/SSW.pdf

  139. Ulric Lyons says:

    @vukcevic says:
    April 6, 2011 at 7:09 am
    “…since there is no way of knowing or extrapolating the movement further ahead.”

    Monthly CET deviations from normals can all be correlated to their solar cause, and can be well forecast a very long way ahead. Though more complex, changes in AO and NAO etc are all in response to short term solar variations, and can also be forecast, so NAP should too.
    Take last winter, I forecast negative solar signal and below normals from the last week in November till Xmas, followed by normal temp`s to well into February, which is exactly what happened. Despite the very -ve AO and NAO during December, the solar signal utterly dominated the return to normal land temp`s through Jan/Feb.

  140. Tenuc says:

    @Vuk – Rather than hot air causing the Arctic polar vortex to split, perhaps it is more likely the effect of changes to the polar charge field which allows the vortex to bifurcate and locate on the two positions of maximum geomagnetism??? BTW, bifurcation is a typical behaviour of chaotic systems and an increase in system energy. It would be interesting to see if any of the effects conform to the Feigenbaumc constant (4.6692).

    This chart from the top link you kindly supplied in your previous post is very revealing!

  141. Roger Andrews says:

    Vuk: You were right. My review of summer-winter temperature differences led to no scientific advances whatever. However, I do find it interesting that CET temperatures stayed about the same for about 250 years (temps in 1980 were no higher than they were in 1740) and then abruptly rose by about 1C between 1982 and 2002. Any ideas as to what caused this?

    A couple more questions. First, there’s an obvious relationship between the AO and the NAO and CE weather, but I can’t find any long term relationship with CE climate, nor can I find any relationship between the AO, NAO and solar activity. This seems to contradict what you and Ulric have been saying about solar-based forecasting. What am I missing?

    Second, and at the risk of displaying my ignorance, what is the North Atlantic Precursor, and how do you calculate it?

  142. Tenuc says:

    Chart here…

  143. vukcevic says:

    Tenuc
    I am not absolutely certain why would polar vortex split, but it is apparently important for the N. Hemispheres weather, since the split in the air mass changes the direction of winds in the atmosphere further down. This has an effect on the N. Europe’s temperatures (and the CET). Polar vortex is a winter phenomenon, as a consequence the CET summers are flat but winters contribute to overall long term warming or cooling.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETsw.htm

    I came to the above view by looking at two particular events.
    – observe positive anomaly in the Labrador sea

    it has been hovering between +2 to 4 degree C above long term average. That is an are where deep warm currents surface, releasing heat into the atmosphere.
    – observe polar vortex splitting up, but this time the temperature (right hand side):

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov

    There is some warmth ‘rising’ west of the British isles, but then there is very strong surge from the Labrador sea area, exactly at point in time when the highest velocity is developing over Greenland. By the time temperature rise has spread over largest area vortex is taking S shape form, and it is on its way to final break up.
    Just a ‘reasonable’ guess.

    Roger
    Some questions there; not sure could help much. Actually sudden summer jump is lowest of all four seasons. Reason: no ( worthwhile ) idea, CO2 ?
    What is NAP? Leif Svalgaard and Judith Curry were also keen to know, I am preparing an article, had an offer of a co-authorship for a peer-review paper, but after considering all the hustle involved with p-r , abandoned the idea and now proceeding under my own steam, but it will take time.
    p.s. Just noticed there is another moderate geomagnetic storm in progress:

    http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Last24&site=tro2a&

  144. Tim Channon says:

    CET: the original dataset, published in a book (on the ‘net) was by Manley.

    I’ve been touching that dataset for maybe over 25 years.

    A little later P Jones took this on.
    For reasons I am a little sceptical about the stations used were changed around 1970 and the character of the data changed a little. Relatively recently I discovered at least one of the original sites is as good as anything now used.
    Could be that it was about money, Brits are notiously for low price not low cost.

    There are no edits of historic monthly data I am aware about.

    The daily data, which is incomplete (only given precomputed) is more recent and of course shorter.

    Did this a little while ago when I was testing end correction after some other software changes.

    Temperature records are dubious even into this century.

  145. Roger Andrews says:

    Vuk:

    Don’t think it was CO2. The only thing that matches date-wise is Bob Tisdale’s theory about how the post-1980 warming was caused by El Niños and La Niñas bringing warm water to the surface of the Pacific.

    Tim: Do any of the cycles on your graph match solar cycles?

    BTW, if anyone is interested in looking at long-term temperature records I have about 20 from stations in Europe (annual means only). They’re not quite as long as CET, but most of them go back to the mid-1700s.

  146. vukcevic says:

    Roger Andrews says:
    April 7, 2011 at 1:55 am
    Vuk:
    Don’t think it was CO2

    Neither do I .
    perhaps I should find out how to put one of those smiling faces.

  147. vukcevic says:

    Roger
    I am not certain how much of the ENSO effect gets transferred to the North Atlantic (re CET rise). I think the CETs are predominantly in synchronisation with the AMO

  148. Roger Andrews says:

    Vuk:

    The impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño on SST were worldwide. The sequence was this:

    SSTs peaked first in the tropical Indian Ocean (NOT in the Pacific, as most people think).

    About a month later they peaked in the tropical Pacific

    About a month after that they peaked in the extratropics

    About two months after that peaked in the tropical Atlantic.

    About six months after that, i.e. almost a year after the Indian Ocean peak, there was a strong El Niño-induced peak in the AMO.

    I have some cartoons showing how heat from the 1997-98 El Niño rose into the atmosphere and spread out in the troposphere, like an erupting volcano. This makes me think that a lot of total global sea-air heat transfer occurs in the tropics during El Niño episodes.

    So I don’t think we can write off El Niños as a possible influence on CET.

  149. vukcevic says:

    Roger
    I’ll take what you say as correct. I do not have time to follow short term changes outside the CET hence I concentrate on the long term effects. My most recent post on WUWT outlines my view.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/07/solar-warming-and-ocean-equilibrium-part-3-solanki-and-schuessler-respond/#comment-637547

  150. Tim Channon says:

    RA@

    There is nothing major in CET I’ve noticed. There is a weak ssn effect in most good resolution datasets.

    Some oddities. Looking at CET monthly the annual cycle is slightly confused and on specifically pulling this out seems to comprise two cycles, 0.25% apart. That calculates as maybe a ~400 year variation. I consider this significant because it has rather more effect that might be supposed but quite likely is data errors, not real.

    A second strangeness is on looking at these two annual cycles, in this case telling the software here to use a particular kind of modulation if it wants, produced unexpected results. I wasn’t actually looking at the annual , was about other things, then I noticed it had chosen similar modulation for both… circa sunspot cycle. Not followed this up.

    I have no idea what that means, also assuming it is just junk.

    I’d love to go find the real ssn matches but this is beyond the technology I have available at the moment.

    There are two methods.

    1. So far discovering a way to match the ssn record has eluded me, is an ongoing quest. Without this I cannot find the signal in other data.

    2. Eventually I hope to change the software to allow (1) self referential modulation (2) allow real signals as a modulation source. Both are major software developments, hence I am leaving this pending, thinking about it until an obvious method becomes clear.

  151. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Tim;
    I believe that sunspots are not a cause. Just an effect that results from solar atmosphere circulations and the resultant magnetic fields caused by electrical energies induced by those circulations. When turbulence between levels breaks out electrical shorts ‘sunspots” ( lightning storms) happen and circulations slow down.

    I would suggest looking at a cool star nearby, Jupiter. The banding colors are due to temperature layering. Jupiter is internally heated and transmits many times the energy that it receives from the sun. pg

  152. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Further, The solar cycle is 22+ years more or less. The ssn 11+year pulse is one half of solar magnetic field changes from “north” to “south”and back. It may be that barycentric effects from the planets speed up and slow down the solar circulations. Thereby causing sloppiness in the ssn timing. pg

  153. vukcevic says:

    Spot on PG. This is copy from my original calculations in 2003.

  154. Tenuc says:

    Yes PG, I agree.

    Did you see the link to miles Mathis newish paper I put in suggestions???

    The Hole at the Centre of the Sun.
    “…by this equation we can find the fraction that goes to charge, which is 15%. That leaves 85% of the energy of the Sun produced by fusion. That makes sense, because it explains why all this loss of charge energy doesn’t cause the Earth to freeze over like Neptune…”

    http://milesmathis.com/sunhole.html

    [reply] did you see the new thread I posted. ;)

  155. David says:

    Tim, I left you a link to an earlier question you had on a different thread here…

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/03/22/cosmic-rays-be10-and-ice-cores/#comment-6070

  156. Tim Channon says:

    David, yes that is what I was talking about, didn’t seem I could add anything worthwhile so I didn’t coment, at least for the moment.

  157. Tim Channon says:

    vukcevic, the snag is it doesn’t work just prior to 1800, wish it did. Solving that problem is likely to be a vital piece of the jigsaw.

  158. vukcevic says:

    It is simple Tim.
    Cycle 4 was very long. Some consider there was a missing cycle 4a, there are number of papers on the subject. It was almost of order of 15 years between start of SC4 and SC5, which would make it ½ cycle or phase change of pi/2 (90 degrees). Number authors have written about that particular perturbation.
    Hence pre 1800 it is required to shift by 90 degrees (Cos replaced with Sin).

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC11.htm

    My formula actually does identify 4a (using log form)

    more

    http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/MSCwebEng.pdf

    http://iopscience.iop.org/1538-4357/700/2/L154/pdf/1538-4357_700_2_L154.pdf

  159. vukcevic says:

    Tim second link should be

  160. Tenuc says:

    Thanks for the links, Vuk, which one again illustrate how solar activity varies across even relatively short time scales.

    Another short paper here which demonstrates a doubling in strength of the coronal magnetic field over the last 100y or so…

    http://www.ukssdc.ac.uk/wdcc1/papers/nature.html

  161. Ulric Lyons says:

    @Roger Andrews says:
    April 6, 2011 at 9:25 pm

    “…nor can I find any relationship between the AO, NAO and solar activity. This seems to contradict what you and Ulric have been saying about solar-based forecasting. What am I missing?”

    A fruitful approach would be to first compare monthly or weekly CET with the AO and NAO, to understand how the oscillators respond to temperature forcings at different times of the year, eg an already negative NAO in early Autumn, becomes more negative with a warmer CET November etc.
    So what aspect of solar activity would make one November warm, and another cold ?

  162. Roger Andrews says:

    Ulric: “A fruitful approach would be to first compare monthly or weekly CET with the AO and NAO ….”

    I had already done this using monthly means. Here’s what I found:

    Over the short-term the AO and the NAO are quite well correlated with CET (CET lags the NAO by about a month but shows no lag relative to the AO.)

    Over the long-term the AO and the NAO are weakly correlated, but both are uncorrelated with CET.

    CET, the AO and the NAO are all uncorrelated with the sunspot cycle. (R=<0.1)

    Another consideration is that the NAO index goes back only to 1822 and the AO index only to 1873, and there are at least 28 other temperature records in NW Europe and the E USA that go back to 1822 and maybe a hundred that go back to 1873. So when we compare the NAO and AO only with the CET record we are ignoring maybe 98% of the available data.

  163. Ulric Lyons says:

    @Roger Andrews says:
    April 12, 2011 at 5:20 pm

    It could well be that what you are seeing as lag, I may be seeing as anti-correlation, as in my November example. I do not see lag in CET, AO or NAO, I see pretty immediate response to the solar signal.

  164. Roger Andrews says:

    Ulric

    Could you point me to your November example?

  165. Ulric Lyons says:

    Roger A
    {eg an already negative NAO in early Autumn, becomes more negative with a warmer CET November} ie a stronger solar signal that will produce above normal land surface temperatures in most non maritime locations during the month.

    You said,
    “nor can I find any relationship between the AO, NAO and solar activity”,

    exactly what aspect of solar activity are you referring to ?

  166. Roger Andrews says:

    Ulric:

    Re negative Autumn NAOs becoming even more negative with warmer CET Novembers. Haven’t looked into anything like that closely.

    For solar comparisons I use SSN or TSI.

  167. Tenuc says:

    Roger, this .pdf presentation may be helpful…

    Submission to the UK Select committee enquiry into the extremely cold & snowy December 2010 crisis from Piers Corbyn…

    http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No5a.pdf

  168. @vukcevic says:
    April 9, 2011 at 8:44 am
    “…1770-1810…changed phase by 90°….the next phase change expected SC24-25
    Do we see what is it all about?. Clearer than water!

  169. Roger Andrews says:

    Tenuc

    Yes, I was looking at this over on WUWT the other day. Corbyn’s weather forecasting system seems to be working (at least so far) but IMO his analysis of how the earth’s climate works is not indicative of a deep level of understanding.

    I think a lot of the apparent disagreement between me and Ulric stems from the fact that Ulric is looking at solar impacts on weather, which seem to be real, while I’m looking at solar impacts on long-term climate, which are a lot more subtle.

  170. Tenuc says:

    Yes, Roger, that could well be the cause of misunderstandings between Ulric and yourself.

    My own view is that global climate is a man-made abstraction which does not exist due the the spatio-temporal chaos inherent in the system. However, I also think that weather patterns can have large scale, long period variations, which I think of as regional weather regime.

    To me the only meaningful long-term measure is the total energy content of the Earth system over any period of time and how the movement and translation of this energy effects the biosphere which is mainly the few metres deep boundary between ground/ocean and atmosphere.

    Interesting things always seem to happen at boundary layers, organic life being just one of them!

  171. Roger Andrews says:

    Tenuc

    When it comes to unraveling the mysteries of the earth’s climate I think of myself as being like Dr. Mortimer in the Hound of the Baskervilles – a picker-up of shells on the shore of the great unknown ocean. But every time I pick up a new shell the great unknown ocean becomes greater and more unknown than it was before.

    We certainly won’t figure it out in my lifetime.

  172. Ulric Lyons says:

    @Roger Andrews says:
    April 13, 2011 at 1:52 am

    “For solar comparisons I use SSN or TSI.”

    Can`t be TSI, it doesn`t change enough, SSN is a roller coaster, that makes no sense either, try solar wind parameters.

  173. Ulric Lyons says:

    @Roger Andrews says:
    April 13, 2011 at 4:04 pm

    “I think a lot of the apparent disagreement between me and Ulric stems from the fact that Ulric is looking at solar impacts on weather, which seem to be real, while I’m looking at solar impacts on long-term climate, which are a lot more subtle.”

    The short term deviations dictate any longer term shifts/trends. Changes in weather patterns is about the most honest nomenclature.

  174. Roger Andrews says:

    Ulric

    The geomagnetic AA index is a proxy for solar wind. It tracks SSN and TSI with only a few minor deviations. It also goes back only to 1868. So no luck there. Anything else I might look at?

    “The short term deviations dictate any longer term shifts/trends”. Could you elaborate?

  175. Ulric Lyons says:

    @Roger Andrews says:
    April 14, 2011 at 2:10 am

    “The geomagnetic AA index is a proxy for solar wind. It tracks SSN and TSI with only a few minor deviations.. Anything else I might look at?”

    Sure… http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/tmp/images/ret_10279.gif

  176. Ulric Lyons says:

    @Roger Andrews says:
    April 14, 2011 at 2:10 am

    “Could you elaborate?”

    Yes, climate is the average of weather. What gets perceived as climatic changes, are just shifts in the frequency and severity of solar forced short term +ve and -ve deviations, and most importantly, which month/season they occur in, eg a strong -ve deviation will have the biggest impact on the global mean if it happens in the N. H. winter, and the least impact in N. H. summer (and with completely opposite hydrological results from summer to winter).
    Non maritime land surface temperatures generally follow the solar signal (excluding things like incursions of polar air), while regional SST and pressure oscillators will move in the opposite direction to the short term changes in the solar signal at key times in the year.
    So looking at global averages can be highly misleading as to what is happening with land temperatures alone.
    Proving the above is all about identifying the mechanisms causing the short term solar variations, rather than the means, and how else could one actually forecast such changes in the solar signal.

  177. Roger Andrews says:

    Ulric:

    Thanks for your comments. I’d like to think for a bit about your weather/climate analysis, but in the meantime could you tell me where I can get the data for the OMNI 2 plasma series? I can’t locate it on the web. Thanks. R.

  178. Roger Andrews says:

    Ulric:

    According to the post at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/14/solar-power-without-silicon-solar-cells-new-magnetic-effect-of-light-into-insulators-discovered/, sunlight can generate magnetic fields 100 million times larger than previously supposed under certain conditions. Thought you might care to take a look at it.

  179. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Vukcevic; that suppression of quakes at the dark of the moon and the increase at full moon is most interisting. pg

  180. Gray says:

    http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26773/

    Heat signature prior to Japan quake.

    They say that before the M9 earthquake, the total electron content of the ionosphere increased dramatically over the epicentre, reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck.

  181. P.G. Sharrow says:

    @Gray says:
    May 18, 2011 at 6:10 pm

    Thanks Gray, for the above link. Very informative visual on prequake effects. Soon we may have real quake warnings. Or at least we hope so. :-) pg

  182. @Gray says:
    May 18, 2011 at 6:10 pm
    Thanks for your link. Time ago we saw the Haiti´s earthquake phenomena quoted there.
    …..Or was it CO2 ? :-)

  183. “…..before the M9 earthquake, the total electron content of the ionosphere increased dramatically over the epicentre, reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck…..The thinking is that in the days before an earthquake, the great stresses in a fault as it is about to give cause the releases large amounts of radon.

    The radioactivity from this gas ionises the air on a large scale and this has a number of knock on effects. Since water molecules are attracted to ions in the air, ionisation triggers the large scale condensation of water.”
    …just a “thinking”, but what if it is the other way around?: How do we call a “total electron content”if it happens in a kitchen´s appliance?: Electricity, a big discharge from above. Now, that “large condensation of water”…what is it proton plus oxygen/ozone?, is it not water?, have we forgotten its synthesis in an eudiometer? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eudiometer)

  184. Gray says:

    I would also make the point that the Japanese earthquake occurred at sea. How would this affect Radon emissions…was there a degassing from the ocean or is the process more widespread. Are we looking at a ‘connection’ event from solar activity.

  185. tallbloke says:

    Fracturing of bedrock?

  186. Gray says:

    Hi tallbloke

    Looks like a flurry of eruptive/earthquake activity in Iceland has just broken out. Heads up.

    http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/

  187. Michele says:

    Electric Universe !!!!

    Eruption Grímsfjall volcano (Iceland)

  188. […] the constantly updating graph from M.A. Vukcevic’s seminal guest post a while […]

  189. frank being frank says:

    vukcevic
    FYI;
    GMS and earthquake correlation exists-i can prove it-of course!

    Well, we are all products of the stars.
    As all animals, humans personally get reactions and feelings of desperation, depression and anger as a result of GMS and CME”s. And it is pretty obvious these geomagnetic storms and Coronal magnetic mass eruptions or storms via solar winds do in fact result in volcanos and earthquakes. I have studied this for years.
    Match any recent spaceweather.com alerts of sunspot activity, gms and cme’s be it m class x class; it results in several 5.0 or higher quakes. The solar delay is anywhere from 12 hrs to 7 days later.
    An example is Dec 15 2008 alert Japan quake 12-20-08
    or
    Haiti or Chile or New Zealand or new Madrid in Arkansas or Japan or Hindu kush and now Virginia.

    I can suppy the data or just fact check for fun.

    Below is an interesting study for your eyes!

    http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0305b.pdf

    noaa or spaceweather.com and earthquakes.usgs.gov
    Just ask for a date of quakes above 5.0 after a recent sunspot gms or cme alert.
    Your welcome my friend!

  190. P.G. Sharrow says:

    @ Vukcevic; We had a 6+ quake at Vancouver Island today. Do you see any magnetic hot spots in the area? Such as showed up just before that big Japan quake? This looks to me to be a prequake to a big one that this area is overdue for. pg

  191. frank being frank says:

    Once again-6.0 quake or higher w/in 5 days after a CME and both m and x class earth directed flares as reported by spaceweather.com early this week. Afraid there are more coming as the sun’s solar storms don’t peak until early 2013. So we NOW know the sun’s weather affects our earth, we just don’t know where the volcanic or earthquake action will occur.
    My mayan and truth seeking friends should go to:
    spaceweather.com and earthquakes.usgs.gov

    Every earth directed flare and or CME resulted in a significant quake above 6.0. w/in a 10 day or less period. Data goes back beyond 11 years w/ 100% accuracy.. wow!

    Just look up a date of a significant quake then check spaceweather.com archives.
    Enjoy the truth…its out there!