Archive for June, 2011

Tim C alerted me to page 252 of  the
Encyclopedia of world climatology
By John E. Oliver


The temperature range of the 20th century spans about 0.74 C. Of this, about 40% or 0.3 C
has excellent correlation with the sunspot time-integral. An equation has been derived
that calculates average global temperature based on the physical phenomena involved.
With inputs of accepted measurements (source web links are given) from government
agencies, it calculates the average global temperatures (agt) since 1895 with 88.4%
accuracy (87.9% if CO2 is assumed to have no influence). This research is presented at
Reference 1 and links given there.

Clouds radiate energy from the planet. Cloud elevation determines cloud temperature and
thus the energy rate. The analysis presented here determines that an increase in average
cloud altitude of only about 72 meters results in an increase of steady-state average global
temperature of 0.3 Celsius degrees. Svensmark2 has shown that more sunspots correlate
with fewer low-level (below 3 km) clouds. If there are fewer low-level clouds then
average cloud altitude must be higher, average cloud temperature lower, less energy
radiated from the planet and thus the planet warms.


Science in a free society

Posted: June 28, 2011 by Rog Tallbloke in climate, flames, Philosophy, Politics

Steve "Show us the data" McIntyre

Not long before climategate broke at the end of 2009, Steve McIntyre requested some assistance from readers at his blog Climate Audit. In the long running battle with the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia over access to the CRUTem dataset, attempts to obtain the information under the Freedom of Information Act had been thwarted by the CRU’s use of various exemption clauses. One of these was it’s claim that binding written agreements with other countries prevented them from disclosing it to non-academics. Steve asked readers to make FOIA requests for copies of these agreements.

I picked three countries, including Cuba, and duly sent off my request, which was refused some weeks later on the grounds that the agreements were themselves confidential. However, despite not wanting to share their confidential information with me, the CRU’s FOIA officer had no compunction in sharing my confidential information with the Norfolk Constabulary in the wake of the release of emails and data which became known as climategate. In the course of their investigation of the alleged ‘hacking’ the police contacted me and requested an interview, so they could ascertain if I may have been the ‘Hacker’ who obtained the emails and data.

Today, the Office of the Information Commissioner has ordered the CRU to release the requested CRUtem data to Jonathan Jones, a notable victory for common sense and open science. Steve McIntyre has the details here: (more…)

Reposted from the Cycles Research Institute’s Blog

A guest post from Ray Tomes

Over very long periods of time as ice ages come and go, it has been found that temperature leads atmospheric CO2 content by about 800 years. This seems to contradict the IPCC and other views that CO2 causes change in temperature. But we are looking at very different time scales with present changes, so perhaps things happen differently. I decided to examine this question.

The temperature data used is monthly global land-ocean temperature or GHCN, which is available from NOAA. The atmospheric CO2 data used is from Mauna Loa in Hawaii, the longest continuous record of CO2 also available monthly.

When wanting to find the causation when two series are both increasing over time, it is best to look at the rate of change of the variables as this will show clearly which one precedes the other. This first graph shows the rate of change of these two variables monthly over the period 1958 to 2009.

Rate of change of atmospheric CO2 content and land-ocean temperature

Rate of change of atmospheric CO2 content and land-ocean temperature


EU Carbon Credits via Bloomberg -BLUENEXT - BNS EUA 08-12 (phase 2) (PNXCSPT2:IND) - click graph for report

Here’s one to keep an eye on. The value of carbon credits on the European exchange has fallen 20% in ten days. Hopefully the graph to the right will update. WUWT contributor Ecotratas has blogged this at

This might be a good time for those who live in the E.U. to ask their pension fund managers how much exposure they have to this market. We know the BBC pension fund is heavily invested in green tech and carbon mitigation. I wonder how much they have in carbon credits.

The recent fall is partly due to the Greek government attempting to auction a million creds, of which only 6000 sold. Not a big confidence booster. How much more E.U. money will be frittered on propping up this failing market?

Update 28-6: The graph doesn’t update. The price rallied a dollar yesterday. Is this the dead cat bounce?

P.P. Kronberg R.V.E. Lovelace G. Lapenta S.A. Colgate
Draft version June 8, 2011
We present radio emission, polarization, and Faraday rotation maps of the radio jet of the galaxy
3C303. From this data we derive the magnetoplasma and electrodynamic parameters of this 50 kpc long
jet. For one component of this jet we obtain for the first time a direct determination of a galactic-scale
electric current (∼ 10e18 A) , and its direction − positive away from the AGN. Our analysis strongly
supports a model where the jet energy flow is mainly electromagnetic.

I’ve seen this page mentioned a couple of times recently and took a read. It presents a convincing case for the cause of the Younger Dryas cooling event and the extinction of megafauna around 11,000 years ago.
Don’t be too daunted by the length of the page, the post is repeated from halfway down. It’s a gripping read, and I learned stuff about pyroclastic geology I didn’t know.


secular sunspot

Figure 1

(see text)

Solar energy emission varies on all timescales right out to the change into a red dwarf, or so that particular theory goes.


Solar physicist and full time blog contributor Leif Svalgaard has for years had solar data on his ironing board. Now he has gone a step further than usual with the following statement.

Leif Svalgaard says:
June 18, 2011 at 6:51 am
The Far Ultraviolet [between EUV and UV] creates and maintains the ionosphere and solar tides move the ions during the day and night cycle giving rise to an varying electric current whose effect we can easily measure on the ground [it was discovered in 1722]. This effect is a very good measure of the FUV flux and follows the solar cycle very closely, e.g. slide 9 of , and shows no long-term drift of change.
Claus Froehlich notes: “The Ca II K index from Mt. Wilson observatory shows no secular trend of the minima since the start of these observations (Foukal et al., 2009; Bertello et al., 2010). This confirms also the result of a recent study of the long-term behaviour of solar like stars by Judge & Saar (2007), which shows that non-cycling stars have a HK index similar to the one observed on the sun during recent minima.” So, there is good evidence that the UV and TSI was not significantly lower during the Maunder Minimum.


On the very busy and interesting El Nino in relation to solar cycles thread Erl Happ made a comment about volcanos and El Nino which reminded me about a graph I did of the similarity between late C19th and late C20th solar slowdowns and the El Nino events occurring at those epochs. I ‘ve made a new pair of graphs to improve clarity and to include the timing of the two biggest volcanic events of the last 120 years.

Comparison of SST SSN and volcanic effects around 1883 and 1991

Here’s what Erl said: