Ian Wilson: Cause of Length of day (LOD) variation and the climate link

Are Changes in the Earth’s Rotation Rate Externally Driven and Do
They Affect Climate?
Ian R. G. Wilson

ABSTRACT

Evidence is presented to show that the phases of two of the Earth’s major climate systems, the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are related to changes in the
Earth’s rotation rate. We find that the winter NAO index depends upon the time rate of change of the
Earth’s length of day (LOD). In addition, we find that there is a remarkable correlation between the years
where the phase of the PDO is most positive and the years where the deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its
long-term trend is greatest.

In order to prove that the variations in the NAO and PDO indices are caused by changes in the Earth’s
rotation rate, and not the other way around, we show that there is a strong correlation between the times of
maximum deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend and the times where there are abrupt
asymmetries in the motion of the Sun about the CM of the Solar System.

Sun wakes volcanoes up: Jupiter makes them sleep

Reposted from http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/15-06-2011/118207-volcanoes-0/

Credit: Pravda.Ru

Mass awakening of volcanoes in the recent years has made scientists wreck their brains over the possible causes of such increased activity. Many geophysicists believe that such activity may increase because of the interaction of the Earth with other celestial bodies, such as the Sun or the giant planets Saturn and Jupiter.

Even the skeptics do not doubt that our planet is going through a peak of volcanic activity. Indeed, for the second consecutive year, these fire-breathing monsters are being felt in different regions of the planet. Even seemingly forever dormant volcanoes are coming to life. In addition, scientists expect the emergence of new volcanoes in places where they did not exist before.

The peak of volcanic activity also coincided with the activation of other processes in Earth’s crust that resulted in the succession of powerful earthquakes. Although they happened in places with the increased seismic activity, this is not very comforting. Since volcanoes and earthquakes are usually associated with one another, it becomes clear that something is happening to the planet.

Roy Martin: Milankovitch cycles and Ice Age timings

Is this the real connection
between Milankovitch cycles and ice ages timing?
Guest post from Roy Martin

This informal study was prompted by the post entitled: “Ice ages driven by earth orientation changes not CO2” and the subsequent comments. A partial review of the literature shows that, in spite of the very extensive research done in the decades since Milankovitch first proposed the idea, there is still no clear understanding about just how the predicted variations in solar input can actually change the climate. The following is a back to basics attempt to clarify some of the issues, without recourse to sophisticated statistics or modelling, which arrives at a conclusion somewhat different from the common perceptions.

Figure 1.) This shows the composite of the variations in 650 N insolation, Benthic δ18O (location unknown), and global temperature inferred from the Vostock ice core data. Yes, the curves are a bit fuzzy because I got lazy and lifted them from an illustration in Wikipedia, but nicer looking plots would not change the conclusions drawn from them.

Doug Biesecker critiques the AAS solar announcement’s ‘three lines of evidence’

Andy Revkin over at dotearth, his more than lukewarm blog on the New York Times, has posted a critique of the announcement of a likely grand minimum in solar activity, written by NOAA solar scientist Douglas Biesecker. This page links the google doc and also a powerpoint slideshow.

Revkin says:

I’ll alert the group that came out with the prediction of a new minimum. This debate will need to play out in the peer-reviewed literature, of course.

And the Sun, in the end, will determine who’s right.

Well of course Andy, empirical data is the final arbiter.  And naturally, the issue can now be kicked into the long grass while we wait for the journals to get around to publishing the resulting to and fro.

The thrust of Biesecker’s argument is the uncertainty inherent in the extrapolation of trends from short datasets. Something his colleagues at NOAA who draw conclusions about other aspects of climate change should take careful note of.

Past prophesies of future solar inactivity and cooler climate

Thunderbolts contributor ‘Persian Paladin’ offers this compendium of :

Researchers who have predicted a long term solar minimum or ‘solar hibernation’ and/or a new climate change to a period of long lasting cold weather based upon solar activity.

1. Dr. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: Russian Academy of Scientists. Head of space research at the Pulkova Observatory, St. Petersburg.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: “Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060….He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today….”

2. David Archibald. Summa Development Limited. (Australia).
From his paper: Archibald, D.C., (2006), Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response, Energy and Environment, Vol.17, No.1.
Comment from paper: “Based on a solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5C is predicted to 2020 equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum.”

3. Dr. O.G.Badalyan, and Dr.V.N. Obridko, Institute of Terrestrial Magnestism. Russia, Dr.J.Sykora. Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovak Republic.
From their paper: Balalyan, O.G., V.N. Obridko, and J. Sykora, (2000), Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23 and 24, Solar Physics, 199: pp.421-435.
Comment from paper: “ A slow increase in (intensity of coronal green line) in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number (number of sunspots) cycle 24 with the maximum W~50 at 2010-2011.” (Note: a 50 sunspot level is a Dalton class minimum)

4. Dr. B. P. Bonev, Dr. Kaloyan M. Penev, Dr. Stefano Sello.
From their paper: Bonev, B.P., et. al., (2004), Long term solar variability and the solar cycle in the 21st century, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 605, pp.L81-L84.
Comment from their paper: “…we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in long term solar variability.”

5. John L. Casey, Director, Space and Science Research Center. Orlando, Florida
From the center’s research report: Casey, John L. (2008), The existence of ‘relational cycles’ of solar activity on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, as significant models of climate change on earth. SSRC Research Report 1-2008 – The RC Theory, http://www.spaceandscience.net.
Comments from the research report:
“ As a result of the theory, it can be predicted that the next solar minimum may start within the next 3-14 years, and last 2-3 solar cycles or approximately 22-33 years. …It is estimated that there will be a global temperature drop on average between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C, if not lower, at least on the scale of the Dalton Minimum. …This forecast next solar minimum will likely be accompanied by the coldest period globally for the past 200 years and as such, has the potential to result in world wide, agricultural, social, and economic disruption.”

Solar Physicists finally get the message: Landscheidt was right after all

After years of pooh poohing Theodor Landscheidt’s methods, work and predictions, mainstream solar physics has made an announcement of the strong possibility of a protracted solar minimum with consequences for Earth’s climate.

At a workshop in New Mexico today, the AAS brought the work of Livingstone and Penn into the spotlight and said the following, as reported by space.com and posted on WUWT:

Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years.

The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated.

The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.

…

Currently, the sun is in the midst of the period designated as Cycle 24 and is ramping up toward the cycle’s period of maximum activity. However, the recent findings indicate that the activity in the next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle 25, could be greatly reduced. In fact, some scientists are questioning whether this drop in activity could lead to a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 when the sun showed virtually no sunspots.

…

“We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now, but we see no sign of it,” Hill said. “This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.”

…

If the models prove accurate and the trends continue, the implications could be far-reaching.

“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill said. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”

The implications are enormous, but don’t come as a big surprise to readers of this blog or WUWT’s solar threads, where a group of planetary theorists, including Geoff Sharp M.A. Vukcevic, Patrick Geryl and myself have been trying to tell all who will listen that far from the big solar cycle 24 predicted by the mainstream physicists, the sun was likely going to quieten down for a long spell. Leif Svalgaard’s predictions for a solar cycle 25 bigger than the current low cycle, made as recently as a fortnight ago, now seem to be in doubt.

More detail on the proceedings at the New Mexico workshop here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/14/all-three-of-these-lines-of-research-to-point-to-the-familiar-sunspot-cycle-shutting-down-for-a-while/

More Earthquakes and volcanoes as Sun goes blank again at Lunar perigee.

If there were any doubts about the link between low sunspot count, big isolated solar flares, Lunar perigee/apogee and heightened earthquake and volcano activity, events of the last months should have dispelled them. Magnitude 6.0 and 5.5 quakes near Christchurch NZ in the last 24 hours, plus the quakes and eruptions in Ethiopia, Chile, Kamchatka and Iceland are a reminder of the global aspect of the upsurge in seismic activity since the start of low solar cycle 24. Our sympathy goes out to all those affected by these frightening and destructively powerful natural events.

Some links to relevant posts on this blog:

The timing of El Nino in relation to the solar cycle

I’ve been challenged a couple of times by Bob Tisdale to substantiate my claim that ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is related to the solar cycle. I have said that El Nino tends to start occurring on the declining side of the cycle, the big ones at or just after solar minimum.

I’ve prepared a couple of graphs to see if anyone else agrees with me. First the longerterm view, using the reconstruction of ENSO back to 1860:

More about the CERN CLOUD experiment from Jasper Kirkby

From http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/article/445/cern-cloud-experiment-studies-cosmic-climate-connection

 

While ALPHA and antimatter have been hitting the headlines, Kirkby’s experiment – Cosmic Leaving Outdoor Droplets, or CLOUD – is no less intriguing. It is very different, focused on explaining not our existence but our climate. “We are trying to understand what the connection is – if any – between a cosmic ray going through the atmosphere and a change in clouds,” Kirkby explains. A cosmic ray is a sub-atomic particle created by supernovae explosions somewhere in the Milky Way. He adds, perhaps stating the obvious, that “it is clearly not as simple as that”. There is no doubt that CLOUD could have important ramifications. If some of the theories Kirkby and his team are testing are proven, they could suggest that the natural, rather than man-made, component of current climate change is greater than previously thought.

Michele Casati: Graphics showing Solar-Planetary links to Earthquakes and Volcanos

Regular contributor Michele Casati has produced some superb graphics showing possible links between Solar-Planetary indices and terrestrial events such as earthquakes and volcanos. There is a wealth of information on these beautifully produced graphics, be sure to click for the high resolution versions, which will be updated in the future.

Grazia Michele!

Click for full size version