Archive for July, 2011

Leif Svalgaard says:
July 9, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Bob Barker says:
July 9, 2011 at 4:14 pm
SORCE TSI has not been updated since 2 June due to technical problems. Is there any more information about that situation?

Their website says: Weekly Status reports have been removed to comply with ITAR restrictions.
In case you wonder what ITAR is:
In short: the information is classified [for 'non-US persons']. Now speculate why that would be so…

Click image to view original webpage


Proxy fixup, solar 10BE and 14C

Posted: July 12, 2011 by tchannon in Astrophysics, Solar physics

Figure 1


Figure 2

There are many serious problems with paleo proxy datasets. (more…)

LIA and MWP correlations

Posted: July 10, 2011 by tchannon in climate


Fig 14 from

Rehfeld, K., Marwan, N., Heitzig, J., and Kurths, J.: Comparison of correlation analysis techniques for irregularly sampled time series, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 389-404, doi:10.5194/npg-18-389-2011, 2011. full paper in PDF available.

This recent paper looks at the difficult problem of correlating data where each data has a different X axis, that is, each Y point is at a different X, something is irregular about the timescale.


Quote of the week: Adrian Scaife of the UK Met Office

Posted: July 10, 2011 by Rog Tallbloke in climate, weather

We now believe that [the solar cycle] accounts for 50 per cent of the variability from year to year

Source of the Earth’s Magnetic Field
C Johnson, Physicist

This concept was conceived and Engineered by March 1996. This presentation was first placed on the Internet in June 1997.

A rather simple and possibly even obvious explanation seems available to explain essentially everything about the immensely complex and peculiar magnetic field of the Earth. The traditional Dynamo Theory which has enormous masses of ionized iron atoms ROTATING WITH THE EARTH is shown to be clearly incorrect, but close. Instead, it is believed that PAIRS of COUNTER-ROTATING convective circulations inside the Core, where the net effect of the pair of iron circulations tends to cancel out at a large distance such as at the surface of the Earth. When slight variations occur in EITHER of the two convection circulations, the measured magnetic field at the surface of the Earth could rapidly become North-directed or South-directed, explaining the many Magnetic-Pole-Reversals that have been detected in volcanic rocks around the world.

Given the fact that two much stronger, opposed magnetic fields are then the source, there would then also be quadrupole and octopole components of the measured magnetic field, as well as the famous dipole, and they all can then vary in complex and even rapid ways. Such quadrupole and octopole components of the Earth’s magnetic field are well confirmed.

No measured magnetic field and standard magnetic field

Left: No measured magnetic field; Right: Normal measured magnetic field

The discussion below will clarify these animations, where the outer circle represents the surface of the Earth and all the activity occurs within the Earth’s Core. Instead of a single circulation as in the popular Dynamo Theory, it seems certain that there are actually pairs or quads of counter-rotating convective circulations as shown here (both driven by the [red] hot-spot that is slightly off-center).

The Luxembourg effect

Posted: July 7, 2011 by tchannon in climate, Uncategorized


The infamous Luxembourg effect harks back to the time after WW2 when the British government refused to break the BBC monopoly and allow popular radio.



Figure 1

How well do radionuclides 10BE and 14C agree as a proxy for solar activity?


This is another guest post from Ray Tomes, head of the Cycles Research Institute. This site is a great resource for those of us interested in cyclic phenomena.

Cycles in Sunspot Number Reconstruction for 11,000 Years

This analysis is based on a Sunspot number reconstruction from Radiocarbon C14 in Tree Rings by Solanki, S.K., et al. 2005, and the data was obtained from NOAA. C14 is generally accepted as being a proxy for solar activity, possibly because of affects in cosmic rays. It will be seen that there are similar cycles in C14 to what are found in climate reconstructions.


Richard Holle, who has his own section on this blog, and runs the aerolgy website, makes an incisive comment on WUWT, concerning cycles affecting weather patterns. It looks like Paul Vaughan has picked up on the work of Marcel Laroux as well, as highlighted here recently by contributor Thierry.

Richard Holle says:
July 3, 2011 at 3:05 am

Paul Vaughan says:
July 2, 2011 at 10:35 am
Dave Springer wrote (July 2, 2011 at 6:59 am)
“There is a chicken-egg paradox that remains controversial. The controversy is whether weather drives rotation rate changes or rotation rate change drives the weather. Either way there is strong correlation between changing winds and changing rotation rate. Winds are definitely a big factor in SST oscillations. [...] heretofore I was unaware of a connection between earth rotation rate and wind patterns. Rotation rate changes are so small I thought it could be ignored for all practical matters. I’m still not convinced it shouldn’t be ignored.”

There’s no controversy here Dave. It has been known for decades that pole-equator contrasts induced by the seasons drive the westerlies and hence atmospheric angular momentum and changes in length of day. If your objective is to know what time it is, go ahead and ignore the changes, but if your objective is to understand terrestrial climate, see the following:
Leroux, Marcel (1993). The Mobile Polar High: a new concept explaining present mechanisms of meridional air-mass and energy exchanges and global propagation of palaeoclimatic changes. Global and Planetary Change 7, 69-93.
Please take however much time is necessary to understand. The discussion cannot advance until people make the effort to understand the basics.

My reply;

I think Vukcevic will like this one:

The flow of seawater across Earth’s surface could be responsible for small fluctuations in the planet’s magnetic field, a controversial new study says.

If so, the research would challenge the widely accepted theory that Earth’s magnetic field is generated by a churning molten core, or dynamo, in the planet’s interior.

“If I am correct, then the dynamo theory is in bad shape, and all kinds of things about core dynamics also fall apart,” said study author Gregory Ryskin