Magnitude 7.2, Van, Turkey, depth 45km, fatal and damaging over a wide area

Posted: October 23, 2011 by tchannon in Earthquakes
quake-van

Figure 1

Figure 1 is trace from Seismic Monitoring & Research Unit, University of Malta. Link is numeric and might vanish, here

I’m having trouble reaching some montoring sites, with many servers down, presumably overloaded. There were two quakes, magnitude still being finalised. For first and main event 7.2 and a large aftershock at 6.0 News as I edit this says around 150 dead, estimate is 500 to 700 and I wouldn’t be surprised if the final toll is 1000. Turkey is highly seismically active so they are used to ‘quakes and as well organised as is reasonable. The weather is a problem, it is currently well below freezing and many many people are sleeping outside without shelter. Electricity and water is lost.

[update 5th Nov, Earthquake report headline is now “Earthquake Van – Ercis, Turkey – Death toll now at 601+, with 4152 injured, at least 8321 households long-term homeless”, which is right in the middle of the estimate figure — Tim]

Figure 2

Map from European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre

Figure 3, fault and historic quake map to 2009, Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, Earthquake Department Ankara, Turkey

Site for the above image with more maps and some information about the current situation is here in Turkish unless you can get English to work. Van province is in the far east of the country. Detailed report which might be upseting are being carried by the excellent Earthquake-Report web site. Please return here later.

Comments
  1. tchannon says:

    Given the sun is active, CME hits earth but not so far as I can see co-incident with the quake, any comments?

    http://sidc.oma.be/news/141/welcome.html

  2. tchannon says:

    Update official report @14:00
    Dead: 279, injured: 1,300, collapsed buildings : 2,262

  3. Michele says:

    Hi Tim,

    I’m sorry I’m late…. :smile:

    In summary,

    Input new moon and lunar perigee.
    Moon no perfect alignment.
    2/3 hours before, the moon up the earthquake epicenter.

    But the significant trigger is ….
    very low solar wind ….
    270Km/s.

    Do you remember my previous article:

    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=15781

    Virginia,Colorado etc…

    Look :

    23 Oct 2011

  4. Michele says:

    2 ° perigee most influential current year.
    Distance from the earth =
    357.054 km.

  5. tchannon says:

    The official number of fatalities has increased to 459

    I fear it is far worse because time is running out for any survivors in low temperatures and there a many collapsed buildings.

    “The only sound loss estimate currently available is provided by KOERI with 700 to 1000 fatalities, with PAGER reanalysing their data to bring the value from 10,000 fatalities to just over 1000 fatalities. We estimate the direct economic loss to be in the order of 500-1000 million USD given past Turkish earthquakes, damage and intensities seen and the current economic status of the region.” eqr

  6. Michele says:

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00ltshuy.php

    Magnitude 6.9 – NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU

    I tribute…Gray Stevens

    Jupiter dance

    http://www.jupitersdance.com/

  7. Michele says:

    http://www.ncgt.org/newsletter.php?action=download&id=98

    SUN, MOON AND EARTHQUAKES
    V. G. Kolvankar
    Abstract
    During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun’s position in terms of universal time (GMT) shows links to the earthquake-lunar distance together with Sun-Earth-Moon angle. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that nearly 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun’s position and the earthquake-moon distance together with the Sun-Earth-Moon angle. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the sum of the earthquake-moon distance and the Sun-Earth-Moon angle changes through 360 0 , and plotting these two variables for different earthquakes reveals a simple 45 0 straight-line relationship between them.

    New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter
    Issue: 60 – September 2011 – Page:50

  8. P.G. Sharrow says:

    An old miner tails,( as “old wives tails”) was that, one should stay out of underground workings around 01:00 am local time, as that was the time of greatest rock falls and wall blow outs inside mines.

    Don’t know if there is any scientific bases. Just was a warning to me from an old miner when he learned I was evaluating some old workings in Alaska. He told me miners tried to stay out of the workings from 10:00pm to 4:00am. pg

  9. adolfogiurfa says:

    @P.G. Sharrow : And worst if the Moon is at the zenith.

  10. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Guess there are “old miners” in Chile as well as in Alaska. 8-) pg

  11. Michele says:

    http://fedgeno.com/documents/on-the-relation-between-solar-activity-and-seismicity.pdf

    “This means that the daj. of arrival of high speed solar
    wind and the day following right after it are “special”
    concerning the earthqu,ake appearance, they are
    significantly different from all other days. On the other
    hand, the day before the arrival of high speed solar wind
    does not differ in any way liom all other days.”

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0006w6e.php

    Magnitude 6.6 – BENI, BOLIVIA
    2011 November 22 18:48:17 UTC

    Bye

    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/

  12. Michele says:

    Hi, Rog

    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=17600

    USGS say :

    http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3029

    “Large earthquakes, in statistical terms, do not happen very often, even though they are noteworthy for their enormous consequences. In events that do not happen very often, random processes are highly variable and may appear clustered even if they are not,” said Dr. Michael. “While the probability of future large mainshocks has not increased, neither has it decreased.”

    http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terremoti_in_Italia

    http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1205-01-&volpage=var#bgvn_3102

    December, January, February, March ….

    Only climategate…
    no..no….
    also
    Geology-gate
    :smile:

    Bye
    michele

  13. tallbloke says:

    Grazie Michele,
    It looks like there is a 2-4 anno lag between heliosphere and siesmic activity.

  14. Michele says:

    Rog ..

    lower value field nanoTesla —–> greater magnitude earthquake

    What is gravitation and electromagnetism….??
    if IMF nanoTesla = 0 ?


    look….
    10325BP

  15. Michele says:

    Solar wind 230 Km/s.

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0007dax.php

    Magnitude 6.6 – SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
    2011 December 27 15:21:56 UTC

  16. Michele says:

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0007fbh.php

    Magnitude 6.8 – IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
    2012 January 01 05:27:54 UTC

  17. Michele says:

    Forecasting….big earthquake 12-13 January ?

    Probability…..Interplanetry magnetic field low.
    small sunspots

    http://www.solarham.com/stereobehind.htm

    Earth-Venus-Neptune alignment.

    Big question ?
    I study the continent…

  18. […] techniques built on the work of Rafaele Bendandi, Talkshop contributor Michele Casati warned yesterday of possible earthquake action in the near future. Share […]

  19. P.G. Sharrow says:

    @Michele says:
    January 10, 2012 at 7:39 pm
    Michele! you have 2 more days. Where is the track of greatest distortion? ;-) pg

  20. Michele says:

    Hi,
    P.G.
    There is not “only” moon !

    A football team has 11 players.
    The solar system consists of 9 planets and reserves.

    We have to analyze entire team or single player ?
    You think example Raffaele Bendandi parallelograms..
    but…is not..
    I have a question in the my mind !

    Analysis of this event…

    The first hypothesis :

    Today Only 1 planet, the moon.
    a) Stress Input in the new moon ..trend…07-08 and 09-01-2012
    Look:
    Ring of Fire Stress , previous days.

    The second hypothesis :
    12,13 January…. NEW EARTHQUAKE !
    b) Earth-Venus-Neptune alignment and other planets

    The next 12,13 solution to the question.

  21. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Michele: “Luna, luna, porta fortuna” ,”moon, moon, give us fortune” says an old italian pledge made to the moon, raising a silver coin with a hand and presenting it to the moon; however this moon does not give anything but takes from the earth. :-)
    It seems there is a connection between Sun-Earth-Moon…

  22. Tenuc says:

    adolfogiurfa says:
    January 11, 2012 at 2:15 am
    “…however this moon does not give anything but takes from the earth. :-)
    It seems there is a connection between Sun-Earth-Moon…

    I think that’s a bit harsh, Adolfo… :-)

    Without the stirring effect of lunar gravity we would have not tides, which are a vital part of our nice stable long-term climate system which lets our biosphere thrive. Also read somewhere that the moon acts as a governor and help stabilise axial recession. So all in all our planet just wouldn’t be the same place to live without our beautiful neighbour.

  23. Michele says:

    Other data ..

    previous earthquake :
    Magnitude 7.3 – OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
    2012 January 10 18:37:01 UTC

    Not only moon..but…

    http://fedgeno.com/documents/on-the-relation-between-solar-activity-and-seismicity.pdf

    “This means that the daj. of arrival of high speed solar
    wind and the day following right after it are “special”
    concerning the earthqu,ake appearance, they are
    significantly different from all other days. On the other
    hand, the day before the arrival of high speed solar wind
    does not differ in any way liom all other days.”

    Look : 18/19 UTC.

    Synchrony lunar & solar.

  24. Michele says:

    I say…

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/10/23/magnitude-7-2-van-turkey-depth-45km-fatal-and-damaging-over-a-wide-area/#comment-12532

    “Forecasting….big earthquake 12-13 January ?”

    10/01/12
    Magnitude 7.3 – OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
    2012 January 10 18:37:01 UTC

    and

    Today 15/01/12

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00lxudza.php

    Magnitude 6.5 – SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
    2012 January 15 13:40:17 UTC

    Jump …Solar wind 350 Km/s.


    :smile:

  25. P.G. Sharrow says:

    @ Michele; I don’t think you should celebrate to much on your prognostication. You missed your window by two days in each direction and just hit the latitudes. We have had a lot of activity in the south hemisphere of late, very active for some time. Makes the little twinkles we are having here in North America pale in contrast. The changes in the earth’s magnetic fields are causing warpage and movements in the continental plates. Both in place and in elevation. Your alignments must have something to do with it, as the field changes are caused by material flows in the earth’s mantel and core. pg

  26. Michele says:

    @ P.G.

    say:

    “I don’t think you should celebrate to much on your prognostication.”

    My comment is short and not interpreted correctly. My error because I spake baby english,
    sorry
    It is not primarily a prediction but a study
    Studies are ongoing and long.

    ” The changes in the earth’s magnetic fields are causing warpage and movements in the continental plates. Both in place and in elevation. Your alignments must have something to do with it, as the field changes are caused by material flows in the earth’s mantel and core.”

    Quote, sun & planets
    energy synchronous movements

    My co-worker realized preliminary geocentric Analysis Software,

    Look :

  27. P.G. Sharrow says:

    @Michele: your English is as entertaining as is your observations.

    Keep up the good work and we both will learn.

    “My co-worker realized preliminary geocentric Analysis Software,”

    Does this mean your co-worker created this software or discovered another’s creation? pg

  28. Michele says:

    @ P.G.
    Base software bendandi works.
    user “ab2010″ section Volcano&earthquakes my blog Daltonsminima

    Last tree forecasting —-> Bingo ….yeahhh ! :smile:
    Siberia, Sumatra and south america

    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?page_id=9506

    Translate post with google

    bye

  29. Michele says:

    Protons records!
    Danger geological event

    Earthquake 11-03-2011 Japan
    2011 03 08 1.5e+07
    2011 03 09 1.8e+07
    2011 03 10 4.5e+07
    2011 03 11 1.4e+07
    2011 03 12 1.6e+06

    ……
    ……..

    2012 01 22 1.5e+07
    2012 01 23 2.7e+08

    Ionosphere – lithosphere interaction
    2011:
    Look volcanoes

  30. Michele says:

    Swiss watch !

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00m0b698.php

    Magnitude 6.9 – SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
    2012 March 03 12:19:57 UTC

    Sun-Earth-Mars 03-03-2012

  31. Michele says:

    Magnitude 6.9 – OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
    2012 March 14 09:08:37 UTC

    Earth-Venus-Jupiter alignment 14/03/2012

  32. Planetary configuration dangerous

    Low value of the heliosphere.
    High probability….
    No coronal hole, no sunspots, no CME.
    New moon and alignament Sun-Mercury-moon-earth

    I hope not exceeding magnitude M7
    Now …. solar maximum approach.

  33. tallbloke says:

    Bravo Michele! I will post the result.

  34. New Post for tallbloke….