Archive for March, 2012

Climate sensitivity to the lower stratospheric ozone variations
N.A. Kilifarska
  • National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, BAS, 3 Acad. G. Bonchev, 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria
  • Received 19 August 2011. Revised 5 March 2012. Accepted 8 March 2012. Available online 21 March 2012.


The strong sensitivity of the Earth’s radiation balance to variations in the lower stratospheric ozone—reported previously—is analysed here by the use of non-linear statistical methods. Our non-linear model of the land air temperature (T)—driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ)—explains 75% of total variability of Earth’s T variations during the period 1926–2011. We have analysed also the factors which could influence the TOZ variability and found that the strongest impact belongs to the multi-decadal variations of galactic cosmic rays. Constructing a statistical model of the ozone variability, we have been able to predict the tendency in the land air T evolution till the end of the current decade. Results show that Earth is facing a weak cooling of the surface T by 0.05–0.25 K (depending on the ozone model) until the end of the current solar cycle. A new mechanism for O3 influence on climate is proposed.


Response to “Unified Theory of Climate”

Updated PDF is here

Dr. Daniel M. Sweger National College


During the last two years that I have been teaching Environmental Science and attempting to explain global warming to my students, I have been frustrated at the lack of solid theoretical understanding of the primary processes coupled with actual data. Speaking as a research physicist, I have been saying to others, “Wait until the physicists get into action. They have an entirely different approach to solving physical problems”.

Sure enough, two such physicists have published their analysis of their fundamental understanding of the climate. In October 2011 Nikolov and Zeller presented their analysis in a poster entitled “Unified Theory of Climate” at the World Climate Research Program in Denver. Their analysis was indeed from fundamental physical and mathematical principles. A month or so later their poster was converted into a document and appeared on Tallbloke’s Talkshop. From there it spread to WUWT and many other blogs, and it has generated a tremendous amount of discussion.

I would like to add my two-cents to that discussion.

Calculating the Average Temperature of the Earth

It can be something of a difficult problem to define what is meant by the average temperature of the earth. Some have argued that there is no such thing as the “average” temperature; that temperature is a localized measure. However, temperature is a measure of the energy in a system, and energy can be averaged.


UPDATE 24-10-13: Michele links a post which confirms his observations and predictions: Looks like Europe might be in for another very cold winter.

This article is a copy in English from the Italian blog of Dr Michele Casati, by kind permission. I’ve paraphrased some of the auto-translation but left most of it as giving a better taste of the original writing – Tim.


Map of North Atlantic conditions, click for current version

The original La corrente del golfo oggi from 26th March 2012

The Gulf Stream today


Back in January, hot on the heels of revelations regarding the Moon’s temperature made by Ned Nikolov on the WUWT thread discussing their ‘Unified Theory of Climate’, Willis Eschenbach published an article at WUWT entitled “The Moon is a Cold Mistress”.

He used as his primary data source this NASA publication, in which the authors had developed a model using the old Apollo in situ data collected by thermocouples set in the regolith – the pulverised rock the Moon’s surface is covered in. The author’s did a pretty good job, their average surface T for the  measurement location as stated by Willis is -77C, or 196K, which matches the latest DIVINER data very well for the Moon’s global average, a nice coincidence, partly caused by the choice of a temperate location for the Apollo mission to land in.

The first section of the article Willis raises some issues around understanding the relationship between incident solar irradiance and average surface temperature. Willis stated that various factors come into play which affect this relationship, including day/night swings, albedo, heat retention in the surface regolith, and speed of rotation.


Well, at least I was right about one thing; the empirical data is the most important. I’ve just had an update via email to say the latest empirical estimate of mean temperature for the Moon is 192-197K. This figure pretty much splits the difference between the old 255K and Ned and Karls theoretical figure of 155-157K. Karl says they will be working a regolith heat retention term into their equations.

So this makes it easier to understand the falloff in temperature of around 20K through the lunar night, and the curves at dawn and dusk. It also means the Earth’s ‘greenhouse effect’ is around 91-97K. Which more or less matches a dry adiabatic lapse rate of 9.8K/km in a 10km high troposphere, so at least the numbers are starting to make good sense. I’ll do the necessary corrections to the figures in the article as everyone digests the new information. TB


Ned Nikolov has kindly sent me a plot of the diurnal lunar equatorial temperature profile as determined by MSU observations carried out by the DIVINER instrument carried on board the NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.


UPDATE: A huge thanks to ‘Wayne’ who has fixed the formatting for this article.

Here’s the latest paper from Miles Mathis, which is a great read. Whether or not you are prepared to entertain his theory, this piece will entertain you. I have myself been wondering about the heat of Earth’s core and mantle, and how it can stay hot for 4.5 billion years...

What Causes the Earth’s Heat?
Answer: CHARGE
how to calculate the Earth’s heat
 straight from the fundamental charge
by Miles Mathis

Abstract: I will briefly critique the current theory of Earth’s heat, including core theory and nebular theory. Then I will show you that the Earth’s heat is actually caused by charge, proving it by calculating the total heat content of the Earth straight from the fundamental charge—in about four lines of math. In a recent paper I confirmed for the third time that the charge field should peak in the infrared. Using a new round of equations, I showed that we must look for charge at energies beneath the visible. So I will open this paper by expanding on that a bit.

Posted: March 26, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics


Some news, not a lot, from the thin blue line…

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Bishop Hill Writes: A surprise from Norfolk Constabulary

Norfolk Constabulary have previously released details of their spend on the UEA emails investigation – Operation Cabin. This showed that no money had been spent on the investigation since February 2011, something that strongly suggested that the investigation was in fact closed. Despite this, the Constabulary insisted that the investigation was ongoing.

View original 55 more words

Trying to find the key configurations and cycles which have the strong effects is a bit like doing a cryptic crossword. The clues don’t at first seem to help obtain the answers. They help confirm you got the answer right once you’ve got it. Analogies can be pushed too far, and there is of course no ultimate certainty. Nature doesn’t print the solution to the crossword in the heavens the following Saturday morning.

However, those of us who have been getting on with the job instead of throwing up our hands in despair at the myriad numbers of cycles or loudly proclaiming the impossibility of the planetary effect on the strength of spuriously extrapolated ‘first principles’ have been making some good progress. This article looks at some of the principle harmonics in the solar system. The Jupiter-Saturn-Earth direct relationship to the Solar cycle of around 11 years and solar rotation has been recently dealt with so is left out of this discussion.


Given the uncertainty around datasets, Roger Andrews thinks that Ned Nikolov’s statement that:

The recent warming has been entirely a result of declining cloud cover and related cloud albedo.

Is not well supported by the data. Roger A’s recent investigation leads him to believe that the late C20th warming was more likely caused by oceanic heat release, challenging us to:

show why my competing theory that the recent warming was entirely a result of stored ocean heat releases is wrong, or otherwise show how the heat releases were triggered by cloud albedo changes.


Never a blog to shirk a challenge, here’s a fresh new thread to battle it out on. Will all protagonists please step forward. :)


NEWS RELEASE from Stanford University

Strange ‘spin cycle’ inside the sun may explain sunspots, solar flares and other mysteries
Few things in the universe seem as constant as the sun.

But now scientists have discovered that two parallel layers of gas deep beneath the solar surface are actually speeding up and slowing down in a strange, synchronous pattern.

It turns out that, as the sun rotates on its axis, one gas layer gradually spins faster while the other reduces speed.

Scientists are at a loss to explain the phenomenon, which occurs in regular 12-to-16-month cycles.

“It’s not what we expected at all,” says Stanford research physicist Jesper Schou. “It comes totally out of the blue.”

Schou is part of an international team of researchers using satellite and ground-based observatories to monitor the sun.

Writing in the March 31 issue of the journal Science, Schou and postdoctoral fellow Rasmus Larsen point out that these unusual but predictable changes in rotational speed only occur above and below a section of the sun known as the interface layer or tachocline.

Located about 135,000 miles below the solar surface, the tachocline separates the sun’s two major regions of gas: the radiative zone, which includes the energy-generating core, and the convective zone near the surface.

Solar experts believe that the tachocline may be the source of powerful magnetic fields that produce strong solar flares and solar winds, and create sunspots that mysteriously appear and disappear during an 11-year cycle.

No one knows how the sun’s enormous magnetic fields are generated, or why they reverse polarity from positive to negative every 11 years.