Beware: Trees are on the move!

Posted: March 17, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in climate, Ocean dynamics, Politics, weather

This event taking place in half an hour from now at Cambridge University’s science festival sounds a bit alarming. Are the Ents going to get us??

However, it turns out things are not as alarming as they seem:

“To generalize our results, the tree line is definitely moving north on average but we do not see any evidence for rates as big as 2 KILOMETERS per year anywhere along the Arctic rim,” he said in a release. “Where we have the most detailed information, our results suggest that a rate of around 100 METERS per year is more realistic. In some places, the tree line is actually moving south. The predictions of a loss of 40 percent of the tundra by the end of the century is probably far too alarming.”

H/T WUWT contributor ‘Pat’

Full article here:

http://www.thearcticsounder.com/article/1211trees_not_invading_as_fast_as_earlier

Comments
  1. Michael Hart says:

    From the article: “The predictions of a loss of 40 percent of the tundra by the end of the century is probably far too alarming.”
    Well I certainly agree with that. Presumably if the Sahara turned into the Garden of Eden overnight we would be reading headlines about “100 Percent Loss of Desert”?

    On a technical note, I’d be interested to learn how the “tree line” is actually defined. Is it based on temperature, or permafrost, or trees? Does a seedling have to grow to a certain height before it actually counts as a tree? That must be quite a slow, yet erratic, change to observe and quantify. Plenty of room for obfuscation.

    [In the book, the one thing the Ents didn't do was reproduce. There were no "Entings" because they had lost the "Entwives"]

  2. Tenuc says:

    Quotes from the article…
    “What we are saying is that when you take the step from a climate model to a vegetation model, we may be doing that in a way that exaggerates what is actually happening. Furthermore, the response around the Arctic rim is by no means uniform.”

    Oh dear, models getting it wrong again – sound familiar???

    “In addition to temperature, other conditions must be considered, the study said. Suitable soil, for example, as well as the absence of animals that destroy saplings, and the ability of trees to produce viable seeds, must be considered.”

    These factors and a couple of dozen others not mentioned above.

    “We understand a bit about what’s going on, but definitely not enough,”

    Good quote which applies to most things in the real physical universe.

  3. Dung says:

    Point of order!

    Maurizio Maurabito is a false name, this post is actually by Phil Jones’s mom!

  4. archonix says:

    “Well I certainly agree with that. Presumably if the Sahara turned into the Garden of Eden overnight we would be reading headlines about “100 Percent Loss of Desert”?”

  5. adolfogiurfa says:

    Where could we find, now, Briffa´s lonely tree?

  6. Stephen Richards says:

    I would like to know how one measures tree-line movement in one year and then manage to get 100m. That’s ludicrous.

  7. Not sure Stephen…perhaps they should be speaking of sapling-line movements?

  8. Minto says:

    Really shows how stupid these people are that make ridiculous statements.
    I think I first pointed out how they said the stupidity of saying that the “trees in the arctic are freezing” when by definition, the arctic does not have any trees at all.

    I have been there and they do have shrubs…

    And evidently, the arctic / tree line area must be very fertile to allow trees to grow in ONE YEAR….

    More evidence of how stupid they – and the media are….

  9. Anything is possible says:

    Money quote for me :

    “The study says the relationship between climate change and tree growth is more complicated than initially thought.”

    =======================================================

    Or, to put it another way :

    “Hey Mike, those nasty deniers are trashing your science, again”

  10. tchannon says:

    A profile signature, various stats techniques.

    However, it’s unsafe to claim to know why even if it really is true.

    Some fascinating revelations have appeared on climateaudit about tree behaviour at growth limit, such as the change in habit, form. Perhaps multistem to upright single stem, yet what decides on this for real?

    Wierdness, tropical
    http://waynesword.palomar.edu/ploct99.htm

    Siberian larch, what it looks like there
    http://fotki.yandex.ru/users/voshchepkov/view/2336/?page=0


    Yamal aerial photo, and climate audit item

    Anyone a bit sensitive or with young kids, do not visit this site, advertisements, promotion but here is the real hard north. The treeline is?Try the second photo.
    http://englishrussia.com/2010/03/25/yamal-peninsula/