Archive for April, 2012

Please read these posts if you are not familiar with the V-E-J Tidal Torquing model:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/planetary-spin-orbit-coupling-model-for.html
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/short-comings-of-planetary-spin-orbit.html
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/why-does-solar-cycle-keep-re.html
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/v-e-j-tidal-torquing-model-maunder.html

 Figures 1a and 1b show cumulative acceleration that would
occur tangentially to the surface of the Sun, if the gravitational

force of Jupiter were to tug upon the combined tidal bulge
that is induced in the convective layer of the Sun by the
periodic alignments of Venus and the Earth (every 1.599
years). In essence, whenever the cumulative acceleration
is increasing (i.e its slope is positive), the tugging gravitational
force of Jupiter increase the rotation rate of a layer of plasma
in the Sun’s convective layer [assumed to be a dynamically
decoupled layer ~ 0.02 % of the mass of the Sun]. Similarly,
whenever the cumulative acceleration is decreasing (i.e its
slope is negative), the tugging gravitational force of Jupiter
decrease the rotation rate of a layer of plasma in the Sun’s
convective layer.
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Here is a rather poor image of part of Emile Sevin’s 1946 paper I have dug up off the net:

Comptes rendus de l’ Academie des Sciences 1946 tome 222 p220.

Translation:

Astronomy:- On the structure of the solar system (Prevision of a new planet)
Note of M. Emile Sevin presented by M.Ernest Esclangon

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I was very interested to read the latest post over on Bob Tisdale’s blog on the abject failure of the IPCC’s models in relation to sea surface temperatures. His point is well made, so I won’t belabour it here. My purpose with this post is to spark a discussion about that most contentious of issues: the question of whether or not most of the warming of the late C20th was due not to rising co2 levels, but to a reduction in cloud cover, letting more solar radiation warm the upper ocean.

Here is Bob’s Figure 4 from his post:

Bob says of this plot:

“I used the data through the KNMI Climate Explorer so that I could change the base years for anomalies to 1995-2011. This helped to reduce the strong seasonal signal that appears in the data of some ocean basins. The North Pacific (0-65N, 100E-90W) sea surface temperature anomaly data from NOAA [which uses a 1971-2000 baseline climatology], for example, has a very strong seasonal component, as shown in Figure 4. Using the base years of 1995-2011, also illustrated, the seasonal component is drastically reduced.”

The question I want to explore here is why the strong seasonal signal is drastically reduced by shifting the baseline climatology.This is a question Bob doesn’t explore in his post, but I think it is an important question.

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This is our second guest post by Tim Cullen, and it is a superb piece of work presented in a professionally produced document, which builds on his first post. There are 32 stunning images in this piece, and I cannot do them all justice with wordpress’ limited formatting capabilities. Please download the full article and feast your eyes and feed your mind with Tim’s intriguing and thought provoking work. Here’s the intro and the first few  images as a tempter-taster:

The Mystery of the Missing Magnetosphere
Tim Cullen. Malaga April 2012

Like many a whoduniti drama this investigation is presented in three acts, contains a sting in the tailii and is conducted by an eccentric amateur who leaves the audience to decide whether the story should be filed under fact or fiction.

The mystery began when it was noted that settled scienceiii believes that the Mooniv only has a mini-magnetospherev lurking on the far side of the Moon that is 360 kilometres across and is surrounded by a 300 kilometre thick region of enhanced plasmavi fluxvii caused by the solar windviii.

The diminutive size of the Moon’s magnetosphereix is apparently associated with the Moon’s very weakx external magnetic field which is described as being less than one-hundredthxi that of the Earthxii.

The plot thickens when comparisons are made with other terrestrial planets.

Mercury is described as having a strong magnetospherexiii and a significantxiv magnetic field which is also [contradictorily] weakxv because it is only about 1.1% as strong as the Earth’sxvi i.e. very close to the Moon’s less than one-hundredthxvii that of the Earth.

Mercury’s magnetotailxviii is estimated to vary from 10s Mercury radii to 100s Mercury radiixix and even up to 1.5 million milesxx. Using values from Wikipedia the magnetosphere of Mercury may extend up to a maximum of 100 RM (Mercury radii)xxi i.e. 243,970 kilometres.

Mercury’s magnetosphere Image Credit:Science/AAAS i

Venus lacks an intrinsic magnetic field but a weak external magnetic field is induced by an interaction between the ionosphere and the solar wind that supports an induced magnetosphereii that stretches for some 45,000,000 kilometres into spaceiii.

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I think that the work of Valery Kotov and his co-authors is fascinating and important. This work in progress is pulling together a list of his more recent publications and who has been citing them. I’ll add links to full papers as I build the library. See the recent threads here and here.

An absolute clock of the cosmos?

V. A. Kotov, V. M. Lyuty
Journal: Bulletin of The Crimean Astrophysical Observatory , vol. 106, no. 1, pp. 127-136, 2010
  • In 1968–2005 different observers (mainly, one of the authors—V.M. Lyuty) performed numerous measurements of luminosity of the nucleus of the Seyfert galaxy NGC 4151. It is shown that (a) luminosity of the object pulsated over 38 years with a period of 160.0106(7) min coinciding, within the error limits, with the well-known period P 0 = 160.0101(2) min of the enigmatic “solar” pulsations, and (b) when registering oscillations of luminosity of NGC 4151 nucleus with the P 0 period, time moments of observations must be reduced to the earth instead of the sun, i.e., to the reference frame of the observer. The coherent P 0 oscillation is characterized, therefore, by invariability of both frequency and phase with respect to redshift z and the earth’s orbital motion, respectively. From these results it, thus, follows that the coherent P 0 oscillation seems to be of a true cosmological origin. The P 0 period itself might represent a course of the “cosmic clock” related to the existence of an absolute time of the Universe in Newton’s comprehension.
    Journal: Bulletin of The Crimean Astrophysical Observatory , vol. 106, no. 1, pp. 127-136, 2010
  • V. A. Kotov
    Journal: Bulletin of The Crimean Astrophysical Observatory , vol. 106, no. 1, pp. 137-151, 2010
  • The prolonged 2007–2009 minimum is a big surprise for solar physics. In order to reveal the causes, we analyze the variability of the general magnetic field (GMF) of the Sun as a star measured by CrAO and five other observatories since 1968 (more than 19000 daily field strengths B were obtained in 41 years). Sharp yearly mean extrema of the negative (S) field took place in 1969, 1990, and 2008, with the third extremum, in contrast to the two previous ones, having coincided with the sunspot minimum. This explains both the long duration of the minimum and the record (over the last 100 years) increase in the length of the Wolf cycle (no. 23) to 12 or more years. The S-field extrema followed with a period of 19.5 ± 1.1 yr—some mean between the 22.1 ± 0.3-yr sunspot cycle, the 18.6-yr saros, and the 19.9-yr Jupiter-Saturn conjunction period. It is pointed out that, for some unclear reason, the negative polarity dominated on the Sun in 1968–2008: the overall mean B = −0.021 ± 0.015 G. The existence of a second Sun that obeys the laws of quantum mechanics is hypothesized. The “quantum” model of the Sun-2 explains many properties of the “classical” Sun-1, including the coronal heating, cyclic activity, periodic variations in GMF, and its sector structure.
    Journal: Bulletin of The Crimean Astrophysical Observatory , vol. 106, no. 1, pp. 137-151, 2010

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Politics weekend open thread

Posted: April 27, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in flames, Philosophy, Politics

Something has started over on the suggestions page with a comment by Doug  Proctor. Seem like a good opportunity for a grouse about the state of things, since the UK local elections are just around the corner, so come ye all. :)

Doug Proctorsays:

Martin Cohen says:
April 27, 2012 at 4:06 pm

Martin,

The concept of power used to be, “I can force you to do this, so you must do it.” The concept is now, “I know, while you do not, so you must do it.”

In the Western democracies of the 1st century, authority rides on the assumption of superior knowledge in those at the top, not their ability to use brute force. General education and the internet have eroded this and with it, the claim to power by our “leaders”. This applies to Greenpeace and the WWF as much as to Hansen, the IPCC, Obama in the US, and Gillard in Australia.

If we can stop the ability of the IPCC and its supporters from instituting their economic, social and political agendas, we will have set a precedent for all further attempts at governmental regulation based on orchestrating our agreement. When Tony Blair said that bringing in FOI legislation was the biggest mistake in his career, and said that it hindered “good government”, he meant the ability to act in the determined “best” manner when the electorate would, the facts be known, not agree it was a good, manner, not just the best. The public disapproval would then block whatever the governors wanted to do. If the IPCC, with all its money and political investment, cannot give the politicians the support they need to do what they want, what are they going to do about all the other, smaller things that they want to do but they know we will not agree to if given a voice?

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Tallbloke’s Talkshop Help facility.

Posted: April 27, 2012 by tchannon in Blog

Over the past few weeks I have created and added a new facility for the Talkshop. There is now a Help page and also a jumping off page for fixed pages and information. This has had to be done within the crude resources available with blog software.

The top of page Menu now contains two new entries.

  • Help
  • Entrance

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CLOUD Collaboration

1 FIRST RESULTS
The first physics results from CLOUD [1] were published in Nature, August 2011 [2]. The measurements
represent the most rigorous laboratory evaluation yet accomplished of binary, ternary and ion-induced
nucleation of sulphuric acid/ammonia aerosol particles under atmospheric conditions. Several new findings
were reported. Firstly, CLOUD has shown that the most likely nucleating vapours, sulphuric acid
and ammonia, cannot account for nucleation in the lower atmosphere. The nucleation observed in the
chamber occurs at only one-tenth to one-thousandth of the rate observed in the lower atmosphere (Fig. 1).
In view of the CLOUD results, the treatment of aerosol formation in climate models will need to be substantially
revised since all models assume that nucleation is caused by these vapours and water alone.
Secondly, CLOUD has found that cosmic ray ionisation can substantially enhance nucleation of sulphuric
acid/ammonia particles—by up to a factor of 10. Ion-enhancement is particularly pronounced in
the cool temperatures of the mid-troposphere and above, where CLOUD has found that sulphuric acid
and water vapour can nucleate without the need for additional vapours.

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ImageUPDATE: Local copy of paper added.

Earth has been bombarded with radiation from stellar events as the solar system travels through the Milky Way. This is linked to Earth’s paleo history.

“Research by a Danish physicist suggests that the explosion of massive stars – supernovae – near the Solar System has strongly influenced the development of life. Prof. Henrik Svensmark of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) sets out his novel work in a paper in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.”
From Royal Astronomical Society press release

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As I started writing this book review, this item popped up on Benny Pieser’s ‘Newsbytes’ at the GWPF:

The only British company in the running to build a new generation of atomic power plants has threatened to pull out due to uncertainty over the government’s energy policy – a move that could imperil the country’s nuclear renaissance. Executives at Centrica, which is planning to build a new nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point in Somerset in a joint venture with EDF Energy, have warned Whitehall officials that the plan hangs by a thread and could be scrapped if the company does not receive assurances about the future price of nuclear-generated electricity. –Guy Chazan and Jim Pickard, Financial Times, 22 April 2012

Which got me thinking about climate sceptics who are quick to condemn subsidy paid to the wind and solar industries, but prefer to talk about (future) improvements to nuclear reactor design rather than sordid financial details. This bedazzlement with technology and unconcern with cost one of the themes in this new book by Martin Cohen and Andrew McKillop.

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