I’ve been watching the model forecasts, some good news for a change.
This Wednesday 21st May looks like the single first day of summer 2012, most of the country above 20C from mid morning through 10 at night. Following days not as good.
Don’t know about cloud though, lets look
Cloud forecast from http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/avnpanel3.html
Reason for fine weather is primarily no wind.
Funny how weather tends to the mean, get one you get the other.
There has been some kind of a spring heat wave over much of eastern Europe for weeks now. If this is a continuing blocking of normal northern circulation I wouldn’t be surprised if things cog around one and we get a blocking high too. The cool and wet weather has come from a kind of wall over Europe with either Atlantic weather sliding past, over us, have some falling drought, or Arctic air.
[UPDATE 21st 23hrs BST]
Forecast image on 21st
Difference. Surprisingly little, weather is stable as I suspected.
Ireland is slightly warmer as is part of France, northern Scandinavia more-so. Pressure change shows a growing high, even less wind.
GCM do work well sometimes. I think it would be interesting to see the various diagnostics on forecast stability, perhaps something which ought to be available to the public so we can make up our own mind. Occasionally public forecasters do let out ‘we are unsure what is going to happen’, or they only give a very short forecast.
[UPDATE] Finally this is the same forecast mid morning of the 21st May