Archive for September, 2012

I’ve been thinking further about this knotty problem, which has vexed climatologists and glaciologists for many years. Finally the light has come on. A little while ago the Hockey Schtick site reported a new paper which had found that the Arctic ocean between 50,000 and 11,000 years ago was warmer than it is now by 1-2C to a considerable depth. The authors think it is due to a reduced fresh water flux.

I think it’s due to the glacial period frozen-year-round Arctic ocean surface providing a skull cap of insulation over the bulk of the Arctic ocean preventing it from losing heat to space.

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Posted: September 28, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

 

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Just in case we get a cold winter this year, the Guardian thought it advisable to warn us that this would no doubt be because of global warming.

The record loss of Arcticsea ice this summer may mean a cold winter for the UK and northern Europe. The region has been prone to bad winters after summers with very low sea ice, such as 2011 and 2007, said Jennifer Francis, a researcher at Rutgers University

Well yes, Jennifer. It has also been prone to mild winters recently. It was also prone to cold winters when the Arctic had more summer ice, and also mild winters in other years at the time. It is actually called “weather”.

Jennifer helpfully explains

"The jet stream is clearly weaker," said Francis. That means weather systems, be it rain or dry conditions, are slow to move on…

View original 334 more words

The 1940s hump in SST is Real.

Posted: September 28, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in Analysis, climate, data, Measurement, Ocean dynamics

Several years ago there was much discussion on Climate Audit and elsewhere regarding the anomalous ‘hump’ in sea surface temperatures during the wartime years in the 1940′s. The argument advanced was that various issues around the prevalence in those years of measurements from American warships which had changed over from using the time honoured technique of chucking a bucket on a rope over the side to get a sample, to using temperature sensors attached to the engine cooling intake pipe. It’s thought that heat conducted along the pipe from the engine might have skewed the readings to the warm side, and that this explains the big ‘hump’ in SST  around the last war years.

There is likely some truth in this, but I think there may be a conflation of two effects, and that we shouldn’t be hasty in ‘adjusting’ the 1940′s temperature downwards, for several reasons. Firstly, there is motivation in this. The ‘hump’ is problematic for the AGW theory.  The ‘hump’ forms the tail end of the 1915-1945 warming period which rivals the modern warm period in length, strength and slope. But CO2 hadn’t been rising significantly during the period according to the Antarctic ice cores. They’d rather we didn’t think about it.

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Belfast, Ravenhill Road, Northern Ireland

Posted: September 27, 2012 by tchannon in Analysis, Surfacestation

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Belfast, Ravenhill Road, Northern Ireland

Holds two Northern Ireland highest temperature records.

No WMO ID.

54.58376830736669,-5.909843956695321
Altitude 12 metres.

Estimated Class 5. Fails Class 4 on >50% hardstanding and objects within 10 metres and on shadow.

UHI, heavy local, distance, within Belfast.

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My thanks to Russell Cook for permission to reproduce this article first published on the ‘American Thinker’ website in 2010. This is well timed given Al Gore’s upcoming ‘Dirty Weather’ 24 hour special broadcast. ‘Weather Weirding’, ‘Climate Disruption’, ‘Dirty Weather’, these are all phrases designed to conjure up worry and fear in the minds of ordinary people. They are promulgated by pseudoscientists who want to link ‘carbon emissions’ with disruptive weather events. That they have no scientific basis to do so is demonstrated in a recent editorial in ‘Nature’, as well as by numerous articles over the years by meteorologists such as Ryan Maue. -TB

With thanks to ‘Minnesotans for Global Warming’

The Curious History of ‘Global Climate Disruption’
By Russell Cook
Global warming alarmists are seriously considering rebranding their fear campaign in the face of public skepticism.

September 16 Fox News report analyzed the suggestion by Science Czar John Holdren to rename global warming “global climate disruption,” while also offering this tidbit:

In a 2007 presentation, Holdren suggested a similar phrase change — “global climatic disruption.”

The newest suggestion prompted many satirical alternatives, however, his own 2007 variant actually goes back to 1997, revealing a far more serious association with an eco-advocacy group.

WMO03874, Solent

Posted: September 26, 2012 by tchannon in Analysis, Surfacestation

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Image Copyright 2012 Microsoft Corporation and their suppliers
Bing maps this view

WMO03874, Solent (Lee-on-Solent, coastguard station / hovercraft museum), also known as Solent MRSC

50 48 29N 01 12 39W
Altitude 9 metres.

Estimated Class 5, deep shadow from building.

UHI, strong local including 2 story building shielding north through south-east, distance, variable depends on wind, otherwise coastal.

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The new ‘Green Deal’ logo

My thanks to Ian Laidlaw for drawing my attention to a short ten minute segment on BBC radio 4 which discusses ‘Integrated Assessment Models’. These bring together climate models with social science models such as economic models in order to assist policy makers in decision making. They are designed to enable the effects of decisions to be fed into the model, which then calculate what the feedback to the climate system will be as a result. The model can then provide an outcome which can be compared with the effect of taking a different policy option.

Involved in the discussion, notably, was Sir Brian Hoskins, a very eminent Phd Mathematician with long experience in the field of meteorology and climate modelling. Head of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London for a number of years, he also holds an honorary doctor of science degree from Bristol University. His original PhD thesis was centred around a mathematical description of the formation of warm and cold fronts.

The host of the ‘Material World’ programme didn’t attempt to engage Sir Brian on climate change theory or the physical science, but did point out that  if you put two economists together in a room you’ll get three different economic theories out of it. Sir Brian agreed that this was an important issue and that so far as he is aware, economists don’t test their models against reality in the same way climate scientists do.

What then is the purpose of Integrated Assessment Models? And why would politicians use our money to pay for their development?

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University of Reading, meteorological station

Posted: September 25, 2012 by tchannon in Analysis, Surfacestation

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University of Reading, meteorological station. Included as a special, a university run met site. (page here, page author has moved)

It ought to be good.

51.44139273296255,-0.9380477212365923 (unofficial, after move)

Altitude 62 metres (unofficial)

Estimated Class 1, marginal ((7.6+212.4+3022.3)-325.9) / 31416 = 9.2% hardstanding or buildings within 100 metres. Note: only valid since 2004 (see text)

UHI, local, extending campus, lake (not typical of the area but artificial lakes after gravel extraction from alluvial beds are fairly common, or filled with rubbish), distance, town urbanising and urban sprawl towards London. There have been significant developments in and close to Reading since this station was built.

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Curious OLR anomaly in the Arctic

Posted: September 25, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics

I’ve been investigating the NOAA OLR (Outgoing Long-wave Radiation) data to try to find where things have changed by more than the global average.  I’ve found a ‘step change’ in the high latitudes which occurred between 2002 and 2006.

figure 1: OLR anomaly 60-90N 2000-2012

Curiously, this increase appears to be mainly in winter rather than summer:
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Ian Laidlaw (left) with old colleague Prof Julian Dowdeswell, Head of the Scott Polar Research Institute

Yesterday I was privileged to make a visit to meet Prof. Julian Dowdeswell, the head of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge. This was enabled by one of Julian’s former colleagues at Aberystwyth University, Ian Laidlaw who now lives in my home town of Leeds.  Along with another friend, Susan, we made the four hour journey down in atrocious rain conditions in Ian’s car, battling through near zero visibility as we passed trucks throwing huge spray plumes off the motorway road surface. Julian had an equally difficult drive from his home in Bristol. We laughed it off, when I commented that it wasn’t so bad in comparison to the conditions Scott and his party suffered in the Antarctic.

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