Archive for October, 2012

Here is the final part of the document outlining the way climate change will be taught in our classrooms. In part 1 we saw some extraordinary claims about the rate of ice melt on Greenland – gone in 50 years. In part 2 we saw how the syllabus will be organised in England, Wales and Scotland. Here we move to experimental work, with two demonstrations. Words fail me, so I’ll let you look for yourself and provide some critique in comments on the suitability of these ‘practical science lessons’ for training young minds after making them fearful of ‘man made climate change’ caused by ‘radiation  from greenhouse gases’.

Phase 3 Process
The Greenhouse Principle in a jar

What you need:

• one large glass jar
• two thermometers
• a sun lamp or access to a sunny area
• a stopwatch
• paper and pencil


Over at Joe Romm’s blog ‘TP’, they’ve been working themselves up into a froth over Tropical Storm Sandy. So I offered some wisdom to pour oil on troubled waters counter their drivel. It was a pretty innocuous comment I thought, but it has been censored anyway. Here are the before and after screenshots.


My thanks to Nicola Scafetta for pointing out this page of the most downloaded articles at science publishing house Elsevier’s title ‘Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics. Our Solar-Planetary Theory is gaining traction. It asserts that the Sun is a more significant climate driver than human emitted trace gases and aerosols and that the motion of the planets and other solar system phenomena are linked to solar activity levels and climate change, also via effects on Earth’s geomagnetic field, magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Over half of the  papers listed are connected with these areas of interest. Notable by their absence are the words ‘carbon dioxide’ and papers strongly pushing the AGW meme. The great climate paradigm shift is underway at the cutting edge of science demonstrating a marked shift from the situation a few years ago, when the Anthropogenic Global Warming theory ruled the roost, and the journal Nature didn’t publish a single solar paper for five years between 2005-2010.

At number one we have:

1. The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24

May 2012
Jan-Erik Solheim | Kjell Stordahl | Ole Humlum

Discussed at WUWT here.

Abstract: Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.


Posted: October 29, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics


Go Team WUWT !! :)


Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:


WUWT-TV to debut on November 14th to counter Al Gore’s “Dirty Weather Telethon” on November 14th and 15th starting at 8PM EST (5PM PST)

Al Gore is forming another 24 hour media event on November 14th, focusing on “dirty weather”, which you can read about here. It is yet another example of what has been called “Tabloid Climatology”.

Gore’s program is another transparent attempt to link climate and weather, and to make people fearful of common weather events that we’ve seen all throughout history. WUWT hosted a 24 hour event last year, thanks to the talents of our contributing cartoonist, Josh.  You can review that here.

Last year during his “24 Hours of Climate Reality”, Mr. Gore created a video called “Climate 101” in which he purported to show a laboratory experiment showing the warming effects of CO2. Unfortunately it was discovered that…

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In Suggestions, Michele has drawn attention to a correlation found by two contributors to the Daltons Minima website in Italy he runs. The following translation is from Google, and is easy to follow. While I think that performing a Pearson correlation between 4th order polynomials is… an interesting technique, ;)  I do think they are onto something here – Note how the Arctic Dipole goes positive at all the solar minima they examine. Bravo Richard and Zambo!

by Richard and Zambo

In the appointment earlier we learned about this new scheme circulatory, characterized by a dipolar structure and therefore known as pattern Artctic Dipole. This is measured by an index that corresponds to the pressure gradient between the boreal Siberian (centered on the Kara Sea) and the area Canadian-Greenland (DA index.) In short, when there is a strong episode DA +, circulation on the pole (in general on the whole northern hemisphere), undergoes a radical change, with a strong acceleration of the southerly winds of Pacific origin and an increase in northerly winds on the Atlantic-European. This fact leads to a dramatic increase in heat fluxes peaceful directly on the pole, resulting in acceleration of the melting rate of the summer Arctic sea ice. Finally, we have seen the results of experimental studies (PIOMA model in the first place), in which unequivocally demonstrate that the orientation and magnitude of the DA + pattern is the key to understanding and predicting the decline of sea ice in the Arctic basin.

In the third and final part of this paper we try to identify the phenomena that govern the evolution and intensity of the DA pattern, and consequently of Arctic sea ice in summer.
For this purpose, we start by considerations of purely intuitive, based on the following image that shows the progress of the DA index from 1980 to present:


So having set the stage with scare stories about Greenland melting in 50 years in part 1, our erstwhile educators bring on their proposals for the best way to indoctrinate schoolchildren with their unsupported hypothesis:

Climate change – upper primary
By using a range of materials and activities, we aim to focus on these outcomes and targets:
Pupil Learning Outcomes
• Climate is the synthesis of the weather over a long period of time.
• Climates change over long periods.
• Pollution has an effect on climate change.
• Saving energy will lower the effects of climate change.

Scotland: 5–14 Environmental Studies
People and place: the physical environment
• Level D: describe how extremes of weather and climate can disastrously affect people and places.
• Level E: describe and explain simply the main weather and climate patterns in Britain and the wider
world, including extremes, and explain the effects on ways of life.
• Level F: explain in detail global patterns of weather and climate and describe the effects on economic


Over on the Carbon Flame war (which I hope to be contributing to again as soon as Ryan fixes the software), Doom-laden Dan Mchale links to a post on a climate alarmist site calling itself ISIS – the Institute of Science in Society.  ISIS is actually the name of a history of science journal which has been in existence for a very long time.

Since its inception in 1912, Isis has featured scholarly articles, research notes and commentary on the history of science, medicine, and technology, and their cultural influences. Review essays and book reviews on new publications in the field are also included. An official publication of the History of Science Society, this is the oldest (and most widely circulating) English-language journal in the field.

But it seems the acronym has been hijacked by climate alarmists trying to give themselves credibility by using the name of this long established and venerable journal. Here’s a bit of the page Desperate Dan linked to:


I could hardly believe my eyes as I read this document from a supposedly reputable UK ‘science based’ agency. This is what people in positions of high trust and high public pay want to push into the minds of youngsters in Britain’s schools. The whole thing needs a thorough debunking, which we’ll undertake over a series of posts. When we’ve completed it, with references to scientific papers and the on the record statements of scientists, we’ll deliver this to the agency involved and report their response.  Here’s the opening section.

Climate change – the story for teachers
Questions that you need to be able to answer:

• Is the climate changing?
• What has caused the climate to change?
• How much do we expect the climate to change in future?

Since 1988, more than 3,000 climate scientists, ecologists, technologists and economists from round the
world have formed an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The view of this panel amounts to a
scientific consensus on climate change, its likely impacts and what we can do about it.

In Britain, the key science working group has its headquarters at the British Meteorological Office’s Hadley
Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

Scientific experts from around the world agree that, whatever we do now, significant climate
change is now unavoidable.


Giant Earthquake causes rise in world seismic action

Posted: October 28, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in Earthquakes, Forecasting

With news just in of the 7.7 quake off Canada, I thought I’d draw attention to this article from

An extraordinary number of earthquakes of M4.5 and greater were triggered worldwide in the six days after the M8.6 East Indian Ocean earthquake in April 2012. These large and potentially damaging quakes, occurring as far away as Mexico and Japan, were triggered within days of the passage of seismic waves from the main shock that generated stresses in Earth’s crust.

The East Indian Ocean event was the largest — by a factor of 10 — strike-slip earthquake ever recorded (the San Andreas is perhaps the most famous strike-slip fault). “Most great earthquakes occur along subduction zones and involve large vertical motions. No other recorded earthquake triggered as many large earthquakes elsewhere around the world as this one,” said Pollitz, “probably because strike-slip faults around the globe were more responsive to the seismic waves produced by a giant strike-slip temblor.”


My other half texted me at 9.30pm last night from Durham, where she is visiting family, to tell me it was snowing heavily. I noticed the guys at the local railway station had been gritting as I got off my train too. At lunchtime she emailed me one of the pictures she took this morning. Snow at valley level before the clocks go back is fairly unusual for the UK.

This from the independent byMichael McCarthy

The first snow and the end of summer time both mark the onset of winter this weekend.

Scotland and parts of the East Coast had a dusting of snow today and tomorrow more is expected, significantly earlier than last year when the first flakes were not seen until December.

The Local Government Association (LGA) said that hundreds of gritters are on standby to treat roads as required.

The first real cold snap of the season meant that night-time temperatures were expected to be below freezing in many areas last night, although after tonight they may be back to more normal levels. But cloud and rain will remain.