Archive for October, 2012

Here is the final part of the document outlining the way climate change will be taught in our classrooms. In part 1 we saw some extraordinary claims about the rate of ice melt on Greenland – gone in 50 years. In part 2 we saw how the syllabus will be organised in England, Wales and Scotland. Here we move to experimental work, with two demonstrations. Words fail me, so I’ll let you look for yourself and provide some critique in comments on the suitability of these ‘practical science lessons’ for training young minds after making them fearful of ‘man made climate change’ caused by ‘radiation  from greenhouse gases’.

Phase 3 Process
The Greenhouse Principle in a jar

What you need:

• one large glass jar
• two thermometers
• a sun lamp or access to a sunny area
• a stopwatch
• paper and pencil

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Over at Joe Romm’s blog ‘TP’, they’ve been working themselves up into a froth over Tropical Storm Sandy. So I offered some wisdom to pour oil on troubled waters counter their drivel. It was a pretty innocuous comment I thought, but it has been censored anyway. Here are the before and after screenshots.

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My thanks to Nicola Scafetta for pointing out this page of the most downloaded articles at science publishing house Elsevier’s title ‘Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics. Our Solar-Planetary Theory is gaining traction. It asserts that the Sun is a more significant climate driver than human emitted trace gases and aerosols and that the motion of the planets and other solar system phenomena are linked to solar activity levels and climate change, also via effects on Earth’s geomagnetic field, magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Over half of the  papers listed are connected with these areas of interest. Notable by their absence are the words ‘carbon dioxide’ and papers strongly pushing the AGW meme. The great climate paradigm shift is underway at the cutting edge of science demonstrating a marked shift from the situation a few years ago, when the Anthropogenic Global Warming theory ruled the roost, and the journal Nature didn’t publish a single solar paper for five years between 2005-2010.

At number one we have:

1. The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24

May 2012
Jan-Erik Solheim | Kjell Stordahl | Ole Humlum

Discussed at WUWT here.

Abstract: Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.

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Posted: October 29, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics

tallbloke:

Go Team WUWT !! :)

.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  10/29/12

WUWT-TV to debut on November 14th to counter Al Gore’s “Dirty Weather Telethon” on November 14th and 15th starting at 8PM EST (5PM PST)

Al Gore is forming another 24 hour media event on November 14th, focusing on “dirty weather”, which you can read about here. It is yet another example of what has been called “Tabloid Climatology”.

Gore’s program is another transparent attempt to link climate and weather, and to make people fearful of common weather events that we’ve seen all throughout history. WUWT hosted a 24 hour event last year, thanks to the talents of our contributing cartoonist, Josh.  You can review that here.

Last year during his “24 Hours of Climate Reality”, Mr. Gore created a video called “Climate 101” in which he purported to show a laboratory experiment showing the warming effects of CO2. Unfortunately it was discovered that…

View original 677 more words

In Suggestions, Michele has drawn attention to a correlation found by two contributors to the Daltons Minima website in Italy he runs. The following translation is from Google, and is easy to follow. While I think that performing a Pearson correlation between 4th order polynomials is… an interesting technique, ;)  I do think they are onto something here – Note how the Arctic Dipole goes positive at all the solar minima they examine. Bravo Richard and Zambo!

THE NORTH POLE IS MELT AND THE FAULT IS ONLY ……. (PART III)
by Richard and Zambo

In the appointment earlier we learned about this new scheme circulatory, characterized by a dipolar structure and therefore known as pattern Artctic Dipole. This is measured by an index that corresponds to the pressure gradient between the boreal Siberian (centered on the Kara Sea) and the area Canadian-Greenland (DA index.) In short, when there is a strong episode DA +, circulation on the pole (in general on the whole northern hemisphere), undergoes a radical change, with a strong acceleration of the southerly winds of Pacific origin and an increase in northerly winds on the Atlantic-European. This fact leads to a dramatic increase in heat fluxes peaceful directly on the pole, resulting in acceleration of the melting rate of the summer Arctic sea ice. Finally, we have seen the results of experimental studies (PIOMA model in the first place), in which unequivocally demonstrate that the orientation and magnitude of the DA + pattern is the key to understanding and predicting the decline of sea ice in the Arctic basin.

In the third and final part of this paper we try to identify the phenomena that govern the evolution and intensity of the DA pattern, and consequently of Arctic sea ice in summer.
For this purpose, we start by considerations of purely intuitive, based on the following image that shows the progress of the DA index from 1980 to present:

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So having set the stage with scare stories about Greenland melting in 50 years in part 1, our erstwhile educators bring on their proposals for the best way to indoctrinate schoolchildren with their unsupported hypothesis:

Climate change – upper primary
By using a range of materials and activities, we aim to focus on these outcomes and targets:
Pupil Learning Outcomes
• Climate is the synthesis of the weather over a long period of time.
• Climates change over long periods.
• Pollution has an effect on climate change.
• Saving energy will lower the effects of climate change.

Scotland: 5–14 Environmental Studies
People and place: the physical environment
• Level D: describe how extremes of weather and climate can disastrously affect people and places.
• Level E: describe and explain simply the main weather and climate patterns in Britain and the wider
world, including extremes, and explain the effects on ways of life.
• Level F: explain in detail global patterns of weather and climate and describe the effects on economic
activity.

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Over on the Carbon Flame war (which I hope to be contributing to again as soon as Ryan fixes the software), Doom-laden Dan Mchale links to a post on a climate alarmist site calling itself ISIS – the Institute of Science in Society.  ISIS is actually the name of a history of science journal which has been in existence for a very long time.

Since its inception in 1912, Isis has featured scholarly articles, research notes and commentary on the history of science, medicine, and technology, and their cultural influences. Review essays and book reviews on new publications in the field are also included. An official publication of the History of Science Society, this is the oldest (and most widely circulating) English-language journal in the field.

But it seems the acronym has been hijacked by climate alarmists trying to give themselves credibility by using the name of this long established and venerable journal. Here’s a bit of the page Desperate Dan linked to:

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I could hardly believe my eyes as I read this document from a supposedly reputable UK ‘science based’ agency. This is what people in positions of high trust and high public pay want to push into the minds of youngsters in Britain’s schools. The whole thing needs a thorough debunking, which we’ll undertake over a series of posts. When we’ve completed it, with references to scientific papers and the on the record statements of scientists, we’ll deliver this to the agency involved and report their response.  Here’s the opening section.

Climate change – the story for teachers
Questions that you need to be able to answer:

• Is the climate changing?
• What has caused the climate to change?
• How much do we expect the climate to change in future?

Since 1988, more than 3,000 climate scientists, ecologists, technologists and economists from round the
world have formed an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The view of this panel amounts to a
scientific consensus on climate change, its likely impacts and what we can do about it.

In Britain, the key science working group has its headquarters at the British Meteorological Office’s Hadley
Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

Scientific experts from around the world agree that, whatever we do now, significant climate
change is now unavoidable.

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Giant Earthquake causes rise in world seismic action

Posted: October 28, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in Earthquakes, Forecasting

With news just in of the 7.7 quake off Canada, I thought I’d draw attention to this article from earthsky.org

An extraordinary number of earthquakes of M4.5 and greater were triggered worldwide in the six days after the M8.6 East Indian Ocean earthquake in April 2012. These large and potentially damaging quakes, occurring as far away as Mexico and Japan, were triggered within days of the passage of seismic waves from the main shock that generated stresses in Earth’s crust.

The East Indian Ocean event was the largest — by a factor of 10 — strike-slip earthquake ever recorded (the San Andreas is perhaps the most famous strike-slip fault). “Most great earthquakes occur along subduction zones and involve large vertical motions. No other recorded earthquake triggered as many large earthquakes elsewhere around the world as this one,” said Pollitz, “probably because strike-slip faults around the globe were more responsive to the seismic waves produced by a giant strike-slip temblor.”

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My other half texted me at 9.30pm last night from Durham, where she is visiting family, to tell me it was snowing heavily. I noticed the guys at the local railway station had been gritting as I got off my train too. At lunchtime she emailed me one of the pictures she took this morning. Snow at valley level before the clocks go back is fairly unusual for the UK.

This from the independent byMichael McCarthy

The first snow and the end of summer time both mark the onset of winter this weekend.

Scotland and parts of the East Coast had a dusting of snow today and tomorrow more is expected, significantly earlier than last year when the first flakes were not seen until December.

The Local Government Association (LGA) said that hundreds of gritters are on standby to treat roads as required.

The first real cold snap of the season meant that night-time temperatures were expected to be below freezing in many areas last night, although after tonight they may be back to more normal levels. But cloud and rain will remain.

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My Thanks to Bryce Johnson, a U.S. American nuclear physicist, who delivered an in depth talk in May to the N. Cal section of the American Nuclear Society, for sending in a pdf of his accompanying powerpoint presentation. For those who are already familiar with spectral calc and who want to skip the intro sections on radiative curves, I recommend review of slides 31-52 where the fun really begins. Hopefully Bryce may find time to join us in discussion to elucidate his findings, which are based on conservative parameters, to give the co2 warming theory the best possible chance. It’s eye opening stuff, especially on the max warming co2 alone can create and the non-event water vapour feedback. I’ve reproduced a few of the slides below to whet the appetite.

Bryce wrote an article covering some of the ground here:
http://climateclash.com/the-limits-of-carbon-dioxides-influence-on-world-temperature/

Full pdf document of the powerpoint available here:
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/bryce-johnson-co2.pdf 

LIMITS OF CARBON DIOXIDE IN CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING
Northern California Section
American Nuclear Society
Bryce Johnson
May 23, 2012

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Mike Haseler: The Norfolk Police were just making it up

Posted: October 26, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in FOI, Legal, Politics
NORFOLK POLICE WERE JUST MAKING IT UP PDF Print Email
Written by Mike
Wednesday, 19 September 2012 11:17
In the Climategate investigation summary Norfolk police made two specific allegations:

  1. That there were significant “commercial interests” involved.
  2. That sceptics believe:
    1. climate change is not happening
    2. or mankind is not responsible

These two sections show this very clearly:

“The original hypothesis was that the data had been taken by a person or persons unknown ranging from an individual acting alone to an organised group engaged in espionage or offences linked to terrorism and potentially linked to foreign governments and/or organisations with significant commercial interests. Whilst the terrorism element quickly receded the other elements of the hypothesis remained current throughout the investigation.

and

Context
There are significant political and commercial influences surrounding the climate debate, which include oil producing nations such as Saudi Arabia, emerging economies such as China and existing major economies such as the USA and Russia. Alongside the political and commercial intereststhere exists a global network of climate change sceptics who variously believe that climate change is not happening or if it is, that mankind is not responsible

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Gerry Pease: Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

Posted: October 25, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in Solar physics

Solar Cycle 24 Maximum
by Gerry Pease

Because of the long intervals over which the sunspot number data are smoothed, there is a possibility that solar cycle 24 maximum occurred last February, 2012.

Ironically, Feb, 2012 was an unsmoothed monthly minimum, both in SSN and F10.7.  Another possibility is that there will be a second, higher, smoothed peak occurring later in 2012 or in 2013, close to the expected time of solar magnetic pole reversal.

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From Dr Benny Peiser’s weekly energy roundup, consternation amongst greens at the appointment of Peter Lilley MP to the energy and climate change select committee. Lilley recently debunked the Stern Report, and the greens won’t forget that:

Peter Lilley MP has been appointed to the energy and climate change select committee, provoking an angry response from climate change campaigners. “The addition of climate change sceptic and oil company director Peter Lilley to the energy and climate change select committee is part of a growing picture,” said Greenpeace policy director Joss Garman. “With Owen Paterson as environment secretary and anti-wind campaigner John Hayes now energy minister, you’d be forgiven for thinking the Tories are gearing up to assault the Climate Change Act and increase the UK’s reliance on expensive, imported, polluting fossil fuels.” –Charles Maggs, Politics.co.uk, 25 October 2012 (http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2012/10/25/outrage-as-energy-sceptic-appointed-to-climate-change-commit)

Last week, David Cameron chaired a meeting of the Quad — the coalition’s decision-making body — at which senior ministers attempted, and failed, to agree the precise content of the Energy Bill. According to a report in The Times, it could result in a cap on new onshore wind farm developments. –James Murray, GreenBusiness, 24 October 2012 (http://www.thegwpf.org/energy-bill-negotiations-deadlocked/)

When Germany’s power grid operator announced the exact amount of next year’s green energy levy on Monday, it came as a shock to the country.

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Here is an important step forward in the progress of the Solar-Planetary theory.  Some big names in the paleo-proxy field are starting to get behind this now. Beer, McCracken and Steinhilber and Ferriz-Mas are all co-authors on this new paper published in Astronomy and Astrophysics.  The great news is that it is open access so well done AandA! No need for me to spend ages formatting the paper’s relevant plots and text, just click and download for discussion.

H/T Ian Wilson

Is there a planetary influence on solar activity?
J. A Abreu1;2, J. Beer2, A. Ferriz-Mas3;4, K. G. McCracken5, and F. Steinhilber2
1 ETH Zurich Institut fur Geophysik, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. e-mail: jose.abreu@erdw.ethz.ch
2 Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Postfach 611, CH-8600 D¨ubendorf, Switzerland.
3 Departamento the Fisica Aplicada, Universidade de Vigo, Spain.
4 Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (IAA/CSIC), Granada, Spain.
5 University of Maryland, USA.
Received 17 Mai 2011 Accepted 17 Mai 2011

ABSTRACT

Context. Understanding the Sun’s magnetic activity is important because of its impact on the Earth’s environment. Direct observations of the sunspots since 1610 reveal an irregular activity cycle with an average period of about 11 years, which is modulated on longer timescales. Proxies of solar activity such as 14C and 10Be show consistently longer cycles with well-defined periodicities and varying amplitudes. Current models of solar activity assume that the origin and modulation of solar activity lie within the Sun itself; however, correlations between direct solar activity indices and planetary configurations have been reported on many occasions. Since  no successful physical mechanism was suggested to explain these correlations, the possible link between planetary motion and solar activity has been largely ignored.

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Something is rotten in the state of Denmark New Zealand. A judge has disregarded as inadmissible expert evidence from a statistician who showed that the adjustment method NIWA claimed they used only gives a 0.3C/Century rise in temperature and ruled that NIWA (now a limited company) can adjust the temperature record as they see fit without having to demonstrate the use of a method based on any accepted science. here’s the graph:
NIWA are now claiming $118,000 from two named individuals in costs. This looks like a vindictive move.

My thanks to Mike Haseler, head of the Scottish Climate & Energy Forum, and co-participant at the Royal society workshop on Handling Problems With Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction which we attended earlier this month. he has written this paper in response to the event, which he has kindly given permission for publication here.

Climate changes: The importance of supra-national institutions in nurturing the paradigm shifts of scientific development.
BY MIKE HASELER BSC MBA

 Scottish Climate & Energy Forum, 7 Poplar Drive, Lenzie, UK

Those present at the Royal Society meeting in October 2012 were left in little doubt about the importance of climate and weather prediction and its power to save lives. Whilst numerical modelling provides this invaluable information on daily to seasonal/regional forecasts, this meeting revealed a new paradigm emerging regarding longer term forecasts. This paper shows the learning curve suggests current methods could take 24,000 years to reach the maturity needed to be the basis for public policy. We examine whether problems of communication of probabilistic forecasts may indicate a lack of a “mental model” or shared understanding in numerical modelling and that more scientific structure may both improve communication and utility of weather and climate projections. Although climate is uncertain and numerical predictions immature, there is high confidence that climate will continue to vary, that this will have profound impacts and that e.g. doubling CO2 is likely to add to the natural variation. So, the message to policy makers as the Kyoto Commitment comes to an end, should be that whatever the cause of climate changes, we should continue to fund lifesaving climate research.

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This is quote of the week for me. Andy Dessler, who got it wrong with his rebuttal of Roy Spencer and Danny Braswell’s paper on cloud feedback last year, said this in an interview with PBS:

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Over the last four years I have been involved in the climate debate on my erstwhile favourite backpackers website. The thread has grown to 3000 comments. Unfortunately the site owner has decided to end commenting rights for non-paying ‘free’ members, because some spam-bots have been creating accounts and hitting the site. I did have a paid up membership a few years ago but decided the benfits weren’t that important to me. I’ve asked one the moderators by email to post the following comment on my behalf as my final contribution:

Short term natural variability in local/regional climate/weather has always far outstripped long term global variability. So a small increase in global temperature won’t make much difference to the decadal variability in precipitation and temperature where you live. Over the centuries, there have been quieter and wilder weather periods, floods and droughts, all perfectly natural. We are at a climate inflexion point with the major oceanic oscillations and some more variable weather will result as the system settles into the new regime for the next 30 years. It was the same in the 70’s as the 30 year cooling gave way to the 30 year warming as the Atlantic and Pacific multi-decadal oscillations changed sign.

I have put together a simple model which replicates sea surface temperature (which drives global lower troposphere temperature and surface temperatures a few months later). The correlation between my model and the SST is R^2=0.874 from 1876 FOR MONTHLY DATA. This is pretty good although I say so myself. You can see the constituent drivers and their relative contributions, and the resulting model/sst match in the two plots here:

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Yucatan Coral dataset oddity

Posted: October 23, 2012 by tchannon in Analysis, Cycles

Image

Citation: Vásquez-Bedoya, L. F., A. L. Cohen, D. W. Oppo, and P. Blanchon (2012), Corals record persistent multidecadal SST variability in the Atlantic Warm Pool since 1775AD, Paleoceanography, doi:10.1029/2012PA002313, in press.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012PA002313.shtml

[updated post 27th Oct, clarification of plot, see comments, was not intended as a formal work]
Read a little on the net, noticing Rog had posted a link to GWPF giving a link to a dataset
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/10/21/roger-andrews-how-nasa-giss-manufactures-warming-in-the-antarctic/#comment-33579

On looking GWPF, broken link, figured and reported it, pulled the small dataset. Odd moment thing is tell software here to go do a quick look, only takes a few seconds, and see what gives.

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