This abstract has been posted in suggestions. I don’t give links to commercial sites generally, but if you want to see their take on the same forcings we’ve been studying here, and sharing our results for free, I’m sure you’ll find them through google. Frank tells me in email that the paper will be available to Talkshop regulars at a spectacular discount so let us know in comments if you are interested in finding out more about this theory.
UPDATE 12-10: Frank and Joachim have made their paper available for free for the purpose of open peer review. It can be downloaded at this page. Steve McIntyre has also posted Frank and Joachim’s announcement here for those who want to visit Climate Audit.
Five climate-forcing mechanisms govern 20,000 years of climate change
By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published on: October 8, 2012
We identify five macro-climatic mechanisms in our study that govern a long time span of 20,000 years. The state of the art in climate-forcing mechanism analysis is that presently available General Circulation Models (GCMs) underperform substantially in terms of predictive power. It is evaluated in the literature that all GCMs perform well for the first 500 years backwards from the present, but then lack skill for the previous 9,500 Holocene years. It is critical for climate models, however, that they also show their validity on time frames of more than 1,000 years.
The presented climate-forcing study proceeds with the selection of 10,000 years of the entire Holocene interglacial and, for comparison, of another 10,000 years of a purely glacial time span (37,000-27,000 BP) from the GISP2 data. It considers the effects of Milankovitch cycles, atmospheric CO2-concentrations, Solar Inertial Motions (SIM), the retrograde tri-synodic Jupiter/Saturn cycle, and of two major mechanisms, the Earth Orbit Oscillation (EOO) and the Cosmic Impact Oscillation (CIO). Detailed mechanisms for both oscillations are provided; their calculation methods are pointed out.
Concluding the study, we zoom in onto EOO and CIO forcing of the past 3,000 years and provide an outlook onto forcing mechanisms, which are expected to act within the future 500 years. The GISP2 proxy temperature curve and macro-forcing mechanisms are compared to the Hockey Stick temperature evolution pattern.
Details of demonstrated astro-climatic relations are as of today, 2012, new and original climate change knowledge. The IPCC has not been able to provide supplementary data on cycle mechanics. The identification of 5 macro-climatic drivers, missing in current GCMs, unmistakably proves that climate science is not settled yet. One missing driver may be excused, but not five. The notion of “The science is settled”, upheld since the days of Galileo, is a spiritual relict of the past. All GCMs will be rectified soon.