Rapid progress for the Solar-Planetary Theory in 2012: Eclipses AGW at Elsevier

Posted: October 30, 2012 by Rog Tallbloke in Astrophysics, atmosphere, climate, Cycles, Electro-magnetism, Forecasting, Geomagnetism, media, Natural Variation, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

My thanks to Nicola Scafetta for pointing out this page of the most downloaded articles at science publishing house Elsevier’s title ‘Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics. Our Solar-Planetary Theory is gaining traction. It asserts that the Sun is a more significant climate driver than human emitted trace gases and aerosols and that the motion of the planets and other solar system phenomena are linked to solar activity levels and climate change, also via effects on Earth’s geomagnetic field, magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Over half of the  papers listed are connected with these areas of interest. Notable by their absence are the words ‘carbon dioxide’ and papers strongly pushing the AGW meme. The great climate paradigm shift is underway at the cutting edge of science demonstrating a marked shift from the situation a few years ago, when the Anthropogenic Global Warming theory ruled the roost, and the journal Nature didn’t publish a single solar paper for five years between 2005-2010.

At number one we have:

1. The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24

May 2012
Jan-Erik Solheim | Kjell Stordahl | Ole Humlum

Discussed at WUWT here.

Abstract: Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0°C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.

At number three:

3. Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models

May 2012
Nicola Scafetta

Discussed at WUWT here

Shortened Abstract: We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed astronomical empirical climate model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that, in previous works (Scafetta, 2010b, 2011b), have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, which is mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn.

At number four:

4. Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation

June 2012
Nicola Scafetta

Discussed on this blog here, and here.

At number five:

5. Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

May 2012
Nicola Scafetta

Discussed on this blog here. At WUWT here.

Shortened Abstract: The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies.

At number six

6. Climate sensitivity to the lower stratospheric ozone variations

Available online 21 March 2012
N.A. Kilifarska

Abstract: The strong sensitivity of the Earth’s radiation balance to variations in the lower stratospheric ozone—reported previously—is analysed here by the use of non-linear statistical methods. Our non-linear model of the land air temperature (T)—driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ)—explains 75% of total variability of Earth’s T variations during the period 1926–2011. We have analysed also the factors which could influence the TOZ variability and found that the strongest impact belongs to the multi-decadal variations of galactic cosmic rays. Constructing a statistical model of the ozone variability, we have been able to predict the tendency in the land air T evolution till the end of the current decade. Results show that Earth is facing a weak cooling of the surface T by 0.05–0.25K (depending on the ozone model) until the end of the current solar cycle. A new mechanism for O3 influence on climate is proposed.

At number nine:

9. The content and composition of meteoric smoke in mesospheric ice particles from SOFIE observations

August 2012
Mark E. Hervig | Lance E. Deaver | Charles G. Bardeen | James M. Russell III | Scott M. Bailey | Larry L. Gordley

Abstract: This work provides the first observational evidence that ice particles comprising polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) contain small amounts of meteoric smoke (0.01–3% by volume), using measurements from the Solar Occultation For Ice Experiment (SOFIE). PMC observations at wavelengths from the ultraviolet through the infrared are inconsistent with pure ice, but can be explained in terms of the extinction simulated for a mixture of ice and meteoric smoke. Simulations of ice–smoke mixtures considered 25 different smoke compositions. The PMC observations were consistent with smoke composed of carbon (C), wüstite (FeO), or magnesiowüstite (MgxFe1−xO, x=0.1–0.6), and inconsistent with the other compositions. A method was established for simultaneously retrieving PMC particle size and the volume fraction of smoke in ice using SOFIE observations at multiple wavelengths. Compared to assuming pure ice, SOFIE retrievals considering ice–smoke mixtures yield smaller ice radii (24%) and higher concentrations (137%).

At number 10:

10. Aspects of global coherence of magnetospheric behavior

March 2011
George Siscoe

Shortened Abstract: This paper reviews ways in which the magnetosphere manifests coherent behavior on a global scale. Because the magnetosphere is a magnetic object, and is thus deformable under the constraint of total magnetic flux conservation, it can and does exhibit coordinated changes across its whole volume.

12. Analysis of solar EUV and X-ray flux enhancements during intense solar flare events and the concomitant response of equatorial and low latitude upper atmosphere

September 2012
G. Manju | K.G. Simi | S.R. Prabhakaran Nayar

Abstract: We investigate the X ray and UV flux changes during flare events and the corresponding ionospheric response. The study reveals that UV flux enhancement depends on both flare intensity and position on solar disk while X-ray flux enhancement depends only on the former. The study brings out a new result that the E region response to flares directly relates to the X-ray flux enhancement and that it does not exhibit limb effect. Further, the F region response shows limb effect indicating the UV flux control on the same and it also shows seasonal variability due to solar zenith angle variability.

15. The global atmospheric electric circuit, solar activity and climate change

November 2000
M.J Rycroft | S Israelsson | C Price

Abstract: The study of the global atmospheric electric circuit has advanced dramatically in the past 50 years. Large advances have been made in the areas of lightning and thunderstorm research, as related to the global circuit. We now have satellites looking down on the Earth continuously, supplying information on the temporal and spatial variability of lightning and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are electric current generators, which drive electric currents up through the conducting atmosphere. They maintain the ionosphere at a potential of ∼+250 kV with respect to the Earth’s surface. The global electric circuit is completed by currents ∼2pA/m2 flowing through the fair weather atmosphere, remote from thunderstorms, and by transient currents due to negative cloud-to-ground lightning discharges. The time constant of the circuit, ∼>2min, demonstrates that thunderstorms must occur continually to maintain the fair weather electric field. New discoveries have been made in the field of sprites, elves and blue jets, which may have a direct impact on the global circuit. Our knowledge of the global electric circuit modulated by solar effects has improved. Changes to the global circuit are associated with changes of conductivity linked with the time-varying presence of energetic charged particles, and the solar wind may influence the global electric circuit by inferred effects on cloud microphysics, temperature, and dynamics in the troposphere. We now have a better understanding of how the conductivity of the atmosphere is influenced by aerosols, and how this impacts our measurements of the fair-weather global circuit. The global atmospheric electric circuit is also beginning to be recognised by some climate researchers as a useful tool with which to study and monitor the Earth’s changing climate.

18. A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature

January 2012
Nicola Scafetta

Discussed at Pielke Sr here and at WUWT here

Abstract: Herein we show that the historical records of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1966 present oscillations with periods of about 9, 10–11, 20–21, 30 and 60 years. The same frequencies are found in proxy and instrumental global surface temperature records since 1650 and 1850, respectively, and in several planetary and solar records. We argue that the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations. Likely in addition to a Soli-Lunar tidal effect, there exists a planetary modulation of the heliosphere, of the cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth and/or of the electric properties of the ionosphere. The latter, in turn, has the potentiality of modulating the global cloud cover that ultimately drives the climate oscillations through albedo oscillations. In particular, a quasi-60-year large cycle is quite evident since 1650 in all climate and astronomical records herein studied, which also include a historical record of meteorite fall in China from 619 to 1943. These findings support the thesis that climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. We show that a harmonic constituent model based on the major astronomical frequencies revealed in the aurora records and deduced from the natural gravitational oscillations of the solar system is able to forecast with a reasonable accuracy the decadal and multidecadal temperature oscillations from 1950 to 2010 using the temperature data before 1950, and vice versa. The existence of a natural 60-year cyclical modulation of the global surface temperature induced by astronomical mechanisms, by alone, would imply that at least 60–70% of the warming observed since 1970 has been naturally induced. Moreover, the climate may stay approximately stable during the next decades because the 60-year cycle has entered in its cooling phase.

21. In-situ measurements of vertical structure of ozone during the solar eclipse of 15 January 2010

August 2012
R.K. Manchanda | P.R. Sinha | S. Sreenivasan | D.B. Trivedi | B.V.N. Kapardhi | B. Suneel Kumar | P.R. Kumar | U. Satyaprakash | V.N. Rao

Abstract: Sudden blockage of the solar radiation during the eclipse leads to both prompt and delayed effects on both the stratospheric and the tropospheric ozone. In this paper we present the in-situ measurements of vertical distribution of ozone made by ozonesondes during the annular solar eclipse of January 15, 2010 from Thiruvananthapuram (8.53°N, 76.87°E). Concurrent measurement of various atmospheric parameters, columnar ozone and UV radiation were also made from ground. The column ozone showed a large decrease matching well with the maximum phase of the eclipse. A systematic decrease in the ozone concentration observed in the stratosphere. A formation of double mixed layer inversion was also observed at ∼2km on the eclipse day. The eclipse was manifested from the space and captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua satellites.

23. Possible evidence of the resonant influence of solar forcing on the climate system

May 2012
A.A. Gusev | I.M. Martin

Abstract: An assumption of the existence of natural climatic oscillations driven by solar activity enables an explanation of phase differences between variations in solar activity and rainfall level in Fortaleza, Brazil. Decadal and interdecadal variations in rainfall level can be reproduced using a forced oscillation equation with a driving force term that describes the variation in the sunspot number and with the assumption of the existence of 31.7-year interdecadal and 12.96-year decadal natural climatic oscillations. This equation satisfactorily reproduces the periodicity with a length of approximately 22yr in the interdecadal rainfall variation before and up to the middle of the past century as well as the subsequent phase inversion, period and amplitude increase in the variation that followed the corresponding increases in the interdecadal sunspot number variation. The equation accurately reproduces the irregular phase shifts between decadal variations in rainfall level and in sunspot number over the entire 160yr of recorded observations.

25. Relationship of the Van Allen radiation belts to solar wind drivers

March 2008
Mary K. Hudson | Brian T. Kress | Hans-R. Mueller | Jordan A. Zastrow | J. Bernard Blake

Shortened Abstract: Discovery of the Van Allen radiation belts by instrumentation flown on Explorer 1 in 1958 was the first major discovery of the Space Age. A view of the belts as distinct inner and outer zones of energetic particles with different sources was modified by observations made during the Cycle 22 maximum in solar activity in 1989–1991, the first approaching the activity level of the International Geophysical Year of 1957–1958. The dynamic variability of outer zone electrons was measured by the NASA–Air Force Combined Radiation Release and Effects Satellite launched in July 1990. This variability is caused by distinct types of heliospheric structure which vary with the solar cycle.

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Comments
  1. The astro-climate connection is gaining ground, with authors such as Solheim,
    Humlum and Scafetta… The search for natural cycles has the future…..
    We included five astronomical cycles in our paper [I do not dare to mention it],
    pointing to the 60-year-Scafetta cycle as a prominent macro-cycle, which
    deserves additional attention….
    TB, if you doubt just 1 astronomical cycle out of our five, there still remain the
    other four, uncontested. This blog shows that astronomical cycles are a hot topic
    and a few Newtonian energy scribblings are not enough evidence to be a spanner
    to be thrown into the wheels of identifying cosmic cycles.
    Cosmic cycle detection is the right track for climate analysis and correct forecasts.
    The bad guys are the ones that use the Argumentum Ignorantium: “”My person, [the great
    mini-Copernikus, knows nothing about cycles…and therefore.. cycles DO NOT EXIST!!?”
    TB, please greet every cosmic-climate study with open arms….instead of looking
    for rusty spanners lying around….Cheers JSei

    [Reply] Rusty spanners must be cleaned, filed and made ready for the hand of the celestial mechanic. Beware when he reaches for his slide rule and finds your theory wanting. ;)

  2. Ian W says:

    Not sure that this is quite the place for my post – but you can always (re)move it ;-)

    As you may have seen – my querying why it was that extrasolar planets were found by their parent star’s change in velocity (aka ‘wobble’) but that the gathered cognoscenti claim that there is no such thing as the Sun orbiting a barycenter – seemed to raise all sorts of hackles.

    So can I put a simple thought experiment that I believe should settle the issues.

    Imagine a star system orbiting a parent galaxy. It is a binary star system with two identical stars orbiting each other in the same plane as the galactic plane. What path through space does each star follow? a simple orbit around the galaxy or a weaving polygon (see http://www.math.nus.edu.sg/aslaksen/teaching/convex.html ) It cannot be a simple constant velocity path (speed and direction) through space or they would not be orbiting each other.

    If the mass of one star is progressively reduced, at what stage does the larger star cease to ‘wobble’ in orbit as is claimed by the cognoscenti to be true for the Sun and the planets?

    I think a solid answer to and comprehension of these analogies might settle some of the heated discussions.

  3. Gray says:

    You’re meddling with my reading list again tallbloke… :)

  4. Brian H says:

    The atmosphere is very spritely Or is that sprightly? I’se so confuzed!
    ;(

  5. tallbloke says:

    Ian W: As I’ve said before, it depends on the frame of reference you are gauging from. We see the stars at the centre of planetary systems wobble as the masses swing around, against the ‘fixed stars’ beyond. Because the locus of Earth’s orbit moves with the Sun as it swings around the bartcentre, we don’t ‘see the wobble’ from here, although there is no doubt that the Sun is wobbling in its dance around the centre of mass of the system as the big four gas giants meet and depart from each other.

    There is also no doubt that there are correlations between its motion and solar activity levels, and colder/warmer periods in Earth’s climate. The question is why. Whether the star wobbles or not is not the issue. The question is, why would wobbling affect it? There are a number of possible answers to that question which have been investigated on this blog, but no firm conclusions have yet been reached. Equally, these ideas have not been conclusively disproven either.

    Then there is the tidal issue. The forces certainly exist, but how are they ‘amplified’ sufficiently to affect solar activity levels? Or is the Sun so close to boundary conditions that the tides from planets don’t need to be amplified? Again, some ideas are being put forward, notably by Nicola Scafetta and Ian Wilson, and you can read about those (click on scafettas name at the start of this article for the papers).

  6. Rog: Nick Scafetta and Ian Wilson put ideas forward…. but did not we as well
    “put ideas forward”?
    It is high time that more proposals and astro-climatic connections are
    being put on the table, since Warmism is hopelessly stuck in the dead-end-street
    after 20 years……
    Everybody can easily recognize this from the latest AGW-meme: “Its getting
    colder because its getting warmer…!” What a difference back to 2000 or 2007,
    when AGW told us: Its getting warmer, because our computer models say so…..
    Today, they do not even mention the names of those models anymore, they
    dwindle into oblivion….

    We put FIVE astronomical macro-drivers forward in our paper, see the paper name.
    This time, I will mention the paper…

    [snip] [Reply] No you won’t. This is a non-commercial site.

    Rog, OK, we realize you dislike ONE of the forcings .. but there exist the other four,
    standing solid as a rock and have to be discussed….one of it is the 60-year Scafetta
    cycle, which we describe as being one of the remaining 4 climate macro-drivers…..
    …… OK, lets agree, we have to put more details on the table in order to convince
    as well the slowest in mind….you have to give us time….. those who dedicate them
    to the astro-climate connection do NOT receive the million grants, its AGW, which
    pockets all the millions….. therefore, it takes time and its is more then unfair, to moan
    and groan if one or the other little detail is still outstanding concerning 1 driver
    and then trying to debunk
    everything such as the other 4 drivers remaining without reason given…..

    The comment has already gotton somewhat long…. For now cheers JSei

    [Reply] “to convince as well the slowest in mind!” Be careful Joachim, my tolerance is not endless. further discussion on your thread, not here.

  7. tchannon says:

    I would like to know where in data is the 60 year as a driver. (not as a consequence)

    One supposed source (orbital data) involves Nyquist, take that into account and it vanishes.

    Another group is about maths relationships which I do not accept as more than maths.

    The hurdle is finding the start and having the delayed consequence.

  8. Paul Vaughan says:

    Rog, I notice that you skipped Natalya Kilifarska. She does work on solar activity & ozone that would probably interest many who browse here.

    http://bas.academia.edu/NatalyaKilifarska/Papers

    [Reply] Thanks Paul – fixed.

  9. tallbloke says:

    Tim C: I think we need to change our expectation. I think the 60 yr oscillation is the combination of several factors, including terrestrial ones as well as celestial ones. for one thing, it dosn’t pertain in the polar regions, where 45 year and ~74 year fluctuations caused by planets and Moon respectively predominate. Maybe the 60 yr oscillation seen in the temperate and equatorial latitudes over the period of record is due to a combination of those plus resonance factors due to Earth rotation changes (also caused by the planets). According to a presentation I saw a video of (and can’t remember who it was), the 60 yr oscillation varies in strength at longer timescales. This in itself would indicate to me that it is amplified by the beat pattern of other oscillations.

    It’s a ‘wicked’ problem, as Judy Curry would say.

  10. Paul Vaughan says:

    On TB’s note to Tim C: Few of these oscillations are strictly temporal. Pay careful attention to the notes of Bill Illis at WUWT on the role of spatial dimensions. Spatial flow reorganizations can come across in a time series as temporal phase shifts. For some variables physical state changes also introduce nonlinearities. It’s a serious mistake to interpret such observed changes in the temporal domain as being strictly a function of time. We’re lucky that we have special variables like LOD that are constrained by the Law of Conservation of Angular Momentum. The solid Earth conveniently projects the multivariate climate attractor onto a single axis. Very convenient (and chaos doesn’t get a special pass from the Law). Variables like ENSO: They force us out of the comfort zone of a time-dimension-only view. If it was all as simple as stationary temporal beats, Tim’s software would have nailed it precisely on the first try. I know one very bright statistician who claims he could easily solve the whole problem using an approach like Tim’s in 4 dimensions, but I warn everyone that the data resolution he would demand would be way beyond not only our current measurement capabilities, but possibly also way beyond even our wildest dreams about future capabilities. Necessity being the mother of invention, we can resourcefully adapt by working smarter rather than harder. I’m learning from experience that complex wavelets give a way to go the next step using Central Limit Theorem to “see through” (in spatiotemporal aggregate) some of what gets injected into the temporal domain by spatial reconfigurations. There are an infinite number of alternative ways to explore the structure of universal constraints, so we needn’t always reach for the hammer when there are screws to sink.

  11. Tenuc says:

    Paul Vaughan says:
    October 31, 2012 at 11:53 am
    “…Few of these oscillations are strictly temporal. Pay careful attention to the notes of Bill Illis at WUWT on the role of spatial dimensions. Spatial flow reorganizations can come across in a time series as temporal phase shifts…”

    Totally agree – the whole system is a complex collage of a few regular predictable cycles (e.g. night and day) and whole bunch of interdependent quasi-cycles which display spatio-temporal chaos (~22y solar Hale cycle).

    In the short term, I think an holistic real-time overview of total energy flows needs to be developed. Without a basic accurate measure of how much energy is coming in to our climate system (from the sun/rest of solar system and galaxy) and how much is being dissipated/used we will always be looking at symptoms rather than finding root causes. A bottom up approach to understanding complex chaotic systems does not lead to understanding.

  12. To Tchannon: To the 60-year Scafetta cycle: He, unfortunately, took only
    the data 1850-2000, because he needed measurements to be scrutinized
    with statistics….and the CETs and the BESTs were not yet on the market…..
    However there is more data around, which Scafetta did not
    discover: The GISP2 data series, clearly showing 60-year mini-spikes over
    10,000 years, adhering to the 3-synodal Jup/Sat cycle…..The dates of the
    Jup/Sat cycle peaks can be fixed in hindcast and the cycle is clearly in front
    of your eyes…… the Scafetta-cycle is the cause of the quasi-60 year
    AMO-cycle which is a pure effect and not a cause…you can clearly see
    that the AMO is purely superimposed onto the cosmic 5-driver temp evolution,
    compare to my paper,……10,000 years of Scafetta-cycles is sufficient evidence….
    JS

  13. tchannon says:

    GISP2 data is in a poor state.
    Take eg.
    Alley, R.B.. 2004.
    GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data.
    IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology
    Data Contribution Series #2004-013.
    NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

    Now diff the dates and plot.
    It is hacked in unspecified ways. No explanation of how come come many single dates have two data values,

    Seen other data which claim to be high resolution yet somehow many digits of the same value in sequence fills me with dismay.

    What data do you use which demonstrates a coupling?

    I’ve not read the paywalled paper, probably wouldn’t understand it anyway.

  14. To Tchannon: Detecting cycles requires the highest resolution in
    the data series…. Mike Mann dedicated himself to the 60-year cycle
    back in the 90’th and his method showed cycles between 50 and 80 years
    for his limited 330 year time span…..
    GISP2 extends to over 100,000 years with a sampling density of 5 to 17
    years in the Allan 2000 version, and there is the Kobashi version (2011)
    with a one years resolution for 4,000 years.
    Take out the years with double numbers, no problem, certain core sections
    experienced, I read, some, whatever, ice melt and I assume, the double number
    belongs to GRIP, which is a borehole 60 mi. further…..
    Cancel out 2,000 years and check on the remaining 8,000 years..
    Science is working to achieve higher data resolution: Check under
    Christopher Bronk Ramsay on carbon dating combined with the Japanese
    lake Suigetsu layer comparison……time span 11.2-52.8 kyr BP, they claim
    they can even discriminate between the 4 seasons of each annual layer….

    Back to the 60-year Jup/Sat- Scafetta cycle;

    It is a true climate macro-driver, because it is clearly visible in high resolution
    paleo-records, such as GISP2, no matter, if certain ice core sections are blurried.
    For the few blurry sections, we may use other cores instead, such as to Ramsay,
    GRIP or Dye 3…..

    And after detection of this cycle in the ice records, then applies, as the saying
    goes: Where there is smoke, there must be fire….JS

  15. To Rog:
    let me emphasize: You get … [most of the time]….greatest inspirations, such as
    (1) the title of the blog:” RAPID PROGRESS for solar and planetary [cosmic-
    climate connection] …. and second,
    (2) your quote from above: “….MOTION of the PLANETS and solar system
    phenomena are linked to climate change and solar activity levels…..”
    This is the Non plus Ultra, the plain truth, and your blog is years ahead of our times…
    .meanwhile…. the ship of Warmism is mercyless sinking …JS

  16. tchannon says:

    The quoted was literally from the published dataset. It says GRIP2
    The data is processed in unknown ways.

    Turning to the CDROM and GRIP2

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/index.html

    Within Nyquist and a claimed definite year count vs. depth, a reasonably suitable dataset can be computed from about AD640. The result is not convincing of a relationship to temperature, nor a 60y. Maybe I am wrong.

  17. Wayne Job says:

    Being some what mathematically challenged I can see that all your harmonies are based on repeating cycles, finding a sinodic cycle then tying it to things celestial, this I can to a degree understand. My thoughts run to these harmonies out of chaos more in a cycle that imitates a mobius strip, some cycles with more than one twist in the strip, this tends to make my brain hurt trying to make sense of it. The mathematics of a cycle following a mobius strip with multiple twists in it is for people more clever than I. That you have thus far achieved so much in tying cycles into our climate from celestial happenings is a credit to all those that are trying to understand the big picture.

  18. suricat says:

    Wayne Job says: November 2, 2012 at 11:45 am

    There’s nothing ‘mathematical’ about a ‘harmony’ (better to use the descriptor of ‘harmonic’) other than to say that it’s ‘repetitive on a regular time-scale’. It has nothing to do with a “mobius strip”, but is linked to a ‘repetitive occurrence’ on a ‘fixed time-scale’ that can be interpreted as having a wavelength, or frequency, for its observational existence.

    Let’s take the frequency of my ‘oven usage’ as an example.

    I don’t bake cakes because I don’t have a ‘sweet tooth’, so my use of the ‘oven’ is restricted to the baking of ‘savoury recipes’. Every Sunday I use my oven to cook the ‘Sunday Roast’, but I also ‘randomly’ use my oven during the week to cook ‘Chicken Kiev’ (or whatever).

    The ‘random use’ doesn’t show as a ‘harmonic’ because the times that I use the oven for this purpose isn’t at a ‘regular interval’ (frankly, it’s chaotic), but my habitual use of the oven for the ‘ritualistic’ Sunday Roast shows as a 7 day ‘harmonic’.

    I hope this helps your headache. :)

    Best regards, Ray.

  19. tallbloke says:

    “Climate periodicity of about 50-70 years has been detected by various
    authors. Spectral analysis of temperature variability series in North America
    and Europe for the last 1000 years indicated predominance of cyclic temperature
    fluctuations within the range of 60 to 80 years and at 120 years
    [Shabalova, Weber, 1999]. In the work by Schlesinger and Ramankutty
    [Schlesinger, Ramankutty, 1994] predominance of 65-70-year periodicity of
    the global climate was demonstrated. Spectral analysis of the long-period
    dynamics of the ocean surface temperature and atmospheric pressure in
    North Pacific water area [Minobe, 1997, 1999, 2000] during the last century
    demonstrated predominant 50-70-year (and additional 20-30-year) periodicity
    of climatic indices PDO and ALPI. Similar data on the 50-70-year
    periodicity of ocean surface temperature fluctuations (PDO index) were
    obtained by Mantua and Hare [Mantua, Hare, 2002].”

    LB Klyashtorin, AA Lyubushin, Et Al. 2007

  20. To Rog:

    Taking the GISP2 temp series for 10,000 years, you find an exact 61 year
    temp up-spike all along for 10,000 years…. this is established fact and UTMOST
    accurate, for everybody clearly to see…—It is the Scafetta cycle—“stupid” [this
    is American expression, sorry...]
    . Now along come peer/pal -”scientists”.
    …taking blurred, distorted, low resolution data..of a couple 100 years only [2 or
    3 % of the Holocene]..boasting
    now to have “discovered” 50-70, a 55-80, a 60-65, a 55-70 year cycles as great
    “scientific” news. No word about GISP2…..The one with the greatest smoke screen
    is called Mike Mann, he blurres the 61 year cycle to its widest amplitude possible,
    making it a 50 to 85 year cycle,
    thus doubtful to everyone, doubting whether one can speak of a real cycle or not….
    [thats the master plan....] Additionally, Mann loathes to dedicate himself to 10,000
    years but rather selects a speck of 330 years of TRW…… and then he, as the
    others, reckon to be the great “cycle experts”……!!
    This confounding time, finally, has come to its end [''A new quality in climate science''!!]
    because the new 60-year cycle people are of a different, high quality, not of Warmist
    low quality cycle blurrers…
    …….All great news….I am excited, science finally advances with the detection of
    more 60/61 cycles…. progress cannot be stopped… the end of the Mannocene and
    of the Grant-suckocene is near on the horizon…..
    and we all together will witness it…..JS

  21. tallbloke says:

    If only it were this simple. :)

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