UAH TLT, bit of a fuss

Posted: November 9, 2012 by tchannon in Analysis, Cycles, Dataset, Forecasting, methodology

Image

Been a bit of a fuss and since I haven’t looked at UAH data for quite some time I decided to take a quick look.

Correction 10th Nov: I used the gridded data before it had been updated, Oct 2012 is missing. This has no material effect. Currently vortex server at uha is not responding.

I didn’t have current UAH data here. Turned out to be the usual pain of having to handle yet another version (goes into a database here in a common gridded format). TLS is unchanged, TMT and TLT have moved to version 5.5, more difficult than the “silent” dataset changes which do not get version bump but at least it is obvious there is change.

I don’t trust the dataset, keeps on changing. RSS is no more useful. And what shows up next time?

Seems to me that doing your best, at least trying and doing things, is right.

Figure includes 10 year low pass but to get up the nose of folks is end corrected. (about -60dB @ 10y) and much longer than the data.

The figure also shows two simple models, which are data driven (I just showed the data to software set to default apart from need to know and limiting size). This too involves a unique work. In this case it is a Fourier model but do you comprehend when I say it is non-discrete? Can’t do this with DFT or DFFT.

Experience tells me pushing past 4 terms on this data is unwise.

Such a model is time free (time and discrete output are arbitrary Nyquist excepting) hence it can sometimes extrapolate. Result here is moot, who knows, I don’t.

Image

Seems to overlay reasonably… my data is computed from the published gridded version.

That should leave room for the unwary to have a go at me.

Now what does w/h mean? Withhold. This was arbitrary, guessed a sensible figure and used that.  To end 2009.

(I’m very busy on other things, taking a break, so I probably won’t respond much, oddly perhaps I have not read the WUWT post or thread so maybe I am misunderstanding: seems Spencer was doing stats stuff without much warning yet he has done that often enough to make comment superfluous on a casual, I don’t like splines)

Tim

Comments
  1. Doug Proctor says:

    Nice work. Simple patterns, huh? A two-up-one-down of 6.5 years, with the second “up” greater than the first because the overall trend is up. But perhaps the two-up is actually one, with a suppression/oscillation: are we seeing active negative feedback?

    Prior to 1978 global temps were down, which means that the curve on the left goes down, not mathematically correct but the actual trend if that is what you are looking to see.

    In part from my work on Central UK temps and sunshine hours, I see 2010 as the rollover point. As such, temps are going to go down a la Archibald. So I see 2013 as a lower peak, at 0.3C (smoothed), leading to a “down” of -0.5C in 2016, and a progressive decrease to +0.5C in 2017.5. Actually, I think lower by 0.5C, but I haven’t got my stuff in front of me because I am in a bar in Vancouver, BC right now.

    We are on the cusp of very interesting times vis-a-vis CAGW theories. By 2015 I think we will know if Gore is a goat or a hero. (I vote for goat. Suzuki will be one, too. He already has the appropriate beard, so maybe that is his opinion, too.)

    I love science: it appeals to the risk-taker in me, as we get to make predictions and then the Universe rolls the dice.

  2. tallbloke says:

    Good work Tim.

    It’s a nice ENSO model. I hope you don’t mind, but I’ve taken the liberty of scribbling on your plot to illustrate the relationship between ENSO and the solar cycles.

    http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/uah-tsi.png

    I think this also shows that Pinatubo coincided with a natural downswing in the ENSO cycle, which indicates that volcanic forcing is overestimated along with sensitivity studies based on the event.

    By the way, Roy Spencer told us on his blog a couple of months ago that an update was on its way.

  3. J. Seifert says:

    The graph is interesting…. The temp plateau of the 21st cty comes out well…..
    Objection: The great max temp spike of 2013…….derived by curve fitting…..
    …there lies the dog in the grave…..I do not believe in a 2013 temp spike, this
    would go against the literature [not allowed to be mentioned on this site]…
    Let’s dig out this forecast in 6 months time and compare then, whether the 2013
    up-spike is only wishfull thinking or whether the spike really has materialized….
    …next summer is the time, hopefully, Rog remembers…….JS

  4. tallbloke says:

    “The literature” Joachim refers to is his own work, peer reviewed here and at WUWT recently. It can be mentioned and the talkshop thread can be linked, but I won’t allow links to external commercial sites. I already told Joachim that, so I think his comment , implying that his work is being ‘suppressed’, is in bad faith.

    If he looks carefully at Tim’s plot, he will see that the peak of the current oscillation is forecast for the end of this year and January next year, not in summer 2013. Considering the way LT temperature has reached a plateau in the last couple of months, and that the SST’s LT lags started to fall this month, I would say it is possible that LT will fall from here. If so, then Tim’s model slightly overestimates the amplitude and duration of the recent positive cycle phase, but only by a couple of months, and by less than 0.05C.

    I would venture that this may be due to the non-linear effect of the recent strong downturn in solar activity which the model doesn’t capture fully, due to the way it derives best fit combinations of cycles from a data range covering a longer period.

  5. Tenuc says:

    I used to think that the UAH data was the best measure of global temperatures because it had a large geographical spread with lots of ‘measurement’ points. However, as Tim points out, there have been so many different version of the data that I no longer have confidence in it.

    If you compare the previous months old data to the new v5.5 you will see that temps prior to ~1997 have been cooled slightly, but warmed post this date (1997 is like the pivot of a see-saw). If you load the following two graphs and toggle between your browser tabs you can easily see this change…

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_current.gif

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_Oct_2012_v5.5.png

    A few more ‘tweaks’ like this over the next few years will ensure the UAH data is fully ‘on message’ and will make it useless as far as testing Tim’s model for future temperature change goes.

  6. tchannon says:

    I don’t understand ENSO. A reasonable sane dataset seems to be at
    http://www.jisao.washington.edu/data/globalsstenso/

    HIndcasting a model is trivial. (type in the decimal date)

    I’m unconvinced there is either much of a connection in the satellite era, or that any timing holds.

    	jisao enso	model from uah
    1950.041667	-0.204217	0.167222
    1950.125000	-0.340363	0.164404
    1950.208333	-0.248181	0.160588
    1950.291667	-0.287371	0.156109
    1950.375000	-0.375463	0.151255
    1950.458333	-0.387111	0.146253
    1950.541667	-0.407393	0.141258
    1950.625000	-0.407838	0.136356
    1950.708333	-0.381955	0.131557
    1950.791667	-0.333461	0.126803
    1950.875000	-0.371121	0.121980
    1950.958333	-0.442784	0.116925
    1951.041667	-0.360027	0.111448
    1951.125000	-0.346071	0.105343
    1951.208333	-0.316947	0.098411
    1951.291667	-0.228995	0.090476
    1951.375000	-0.104565	0.081405
    1951.458333	-0.187601	0.071118
    1951.541667	0.008455	0.059607
    1951.625000	-0.056295	0.046939
    1951.708333	0.132625	0.033264
    1951.791667	0.228876	0.018814
    1951.875000	0.252077	0.003897
    1951.958333	0.128810	-0.011110
    1952.041667	-0.011254	-0.025777
    1952.125000	-0.028346	-0.039634
    1952.208333	0.020701	-0.052197
    1952.291667	0.056716	-0.062984
    1952.375000	-0.005319	-0.071542
    1952.458333	-0.162863	-0.077471
    1952.541667	-0.252672	-0.080441
    1952.625000	-0.307366	-0.080214
    1952.708333	-0.119768	-0.076664
    1952.791667	-0.204435	-0.069781
    1952.875000	-0.263360	-0.059687
    1952.958333	-0.016241	-0.046632
    1953.041667	0.088184	-0.030993
    1953.125000	0.031458	-0.013264
    1953.208333	0.063770	0.005959
    1953.291667	0.005709	0.025996
    1953.375000	-0.016118	0.046106
    1953.458333	0.107585	0.065516
    1953.541667	0.061462	0.083448
    1953.625000	0.072581	0.099151
    1953.708333	0.007750	0.111928
    1953.791667	-0.060970	0.121164
    1953.875000	0.056125	0.126356
    1953.958333	0.035356	0.127129
    1954.041667	-0.059746	0.123256
    1954.125000	-0.019684	0.114669
    1954.208333	-0.068600	0.101466
    1954.291667	-0.114816	0.083906
    1954.375000	-0.153594	0.062406
    1954.458333	-0.134534	0.037525
    1954.541667	-0.241666	0.009947
    1954.625000	-0.050791	-0.019543
    1954.708333	-0.248333	-0.050089
    1954.791667	-0.241256	-0.080789
    1954.875000	-0.329189	-0.110734
    1954.958333	-0.354190	-0.139033
    1955.041667	-0.149988	-0.164852
    1955.125000	-0.346548	-0.187436
    1955.208333	-0.316132	-0.206139
    1955.291667	-0.424712	-0.220442
    1955.375000	-0.458662	-0.229973
    1955.458333	-0.437822	-0.234516
    1955.541667	-0.288160	-0.234012
    1955.625000	-0.223626	-0.228562
    1955.708333	-0.143858	-0.218415
    1955.791667	-0.297779	-0.203958
    1955.875000	-0.365963	-0.185694
    1955.958333	-0.341325	-0.164223
    1956.041667	-0.280245	-0.140214
    1956.125000	-0.287690	-0.114379
    1956.208333	-0.237864	-0.087446
    1956.291667	-0.265710	-0.060128
    1956.375000	-0.312019	-0.033102
    1956.458333	-0.249469	-0.006981
    1956.541667	-0.324224	0.017700
    1956.625000	-0.180002	0.040503
    1956.708333	-0.235914	0.061097
    1956.791667	-0.323969	0.079260
    1956.875000	-0.219956	0.094882
    1956.958333	-0.108977	0.107957
    1957.041667	-0.182807	0.118575
    1957.125000	-0.079780	0.126907
    1957.208333	0.031031	0.133189
    1957.291667	0.068947	0.137702
    1957.375000	0.229948	0.140752
    1957.458333	0.238219	0.142649
    1957.541667	0.129025	0.143688
    1957.625000	0.126223	0.144130
    1957.708333	0.110587	0.144190
    1957.791667	0.160298	0.144021
    1957.875000	0.175935	0.143711
    1957.958333	0.235210	0.143279
    1958.041667	0.281430	0.142674
    1958.125000	0.463011	0.141784
    1958.208333	0.286712	0.140445
    1958.291667	0.276469	0.138453
    1958.375000	0.183827	0.135580
    1958.458333	0.081630	0.131595
    1958.541667	0.141942	0.126279
    1958.625000	0.073055	0.119447
    1958.708333	0.032270	0.110962
    1958.791667	-0.039271	0.100752
    1958.875000	-0.023108	0.088825
    1958.958333	-0.011353	0.075272
    1959.041667	0.136694	0.060274
    1959.125000	0.136157	0.044106
    1959.208333	0.132639	0.027122
    1959.291667	0.142751	0.009753
    1959.375000	0.096497	-0.007508
    1959.458333	0.042918	-0.024129
    1959.541667	-0.091274	-0.039557
    1959.625000	-0.083198	-0.053239
    1959.708333	-0.084833	-0.064651
    1959.791667	0.004013	-0.073321
    1959.875000	0.045308	-0.078851
    1959.958333	0.021461	-0.080938
    1960.041667	0.056980	-0.079393
    1960.125000	-0.000533	-0.074156
    1960.208333	0.149996	-0.065301
    1960.291667	0.090603	-0.053042
    1960.375000	0.148996	-0.037729
    1960.458333	-0.019770	-0.019841
    1960.541667	-0.048842	0.000029
    1960.625000	-0.056079	0.021193
    1960.708333	-0.005571	0.042890
    1960.791667	-0.048938	0.064313
    1960.875000	-0.047096	0.084643
    1960.958333	0.134430	0.103071
    1961.041667	0.065674	0.118837
    1961.125000	0.121069	0.131256
    1961.208333	-0.058682	0.139745
    1961.291667	-0.036326	0.143846
    1961.375000	-0.140652	0.143246
    1961.458333	-0.151392	0.137792
    1961.541667	-0.292116	0.127493
    1961.625000	-0.264834	0.112529
    1961.708333	-0.247772	0.093240
    1961.791667	-0.266357	0.070116
    1961.875000	-0.178781	0.043782
    1961.958333	-0.099506	0.014971
    1962.041667	-0.148699	-0.015496
    1962.125000	-0.167177	-0.046744
    1962.208333	-0.084709	-0.077873
    1962.291667	-0.139213	-0.107992
    1962.375000	-0.145865	-0.136250
    1962.458333	-0.020606	-0.161863
    1962.541667	-0.065782	-0.184141
    1962.625000	0.033922	-0.202515
    1962.708333	-0.144515	-0.216548
    1962.791667	-0.106967	-0.225949
    1962.875000	-0.022479	-0.230581
    1962.958333	-0.070457	-0.230458
    1963.041667	0.084813	-0.225740
    1963.125000	0.115851	-0.216722
    1963.208333	0.163343	-0.203818
    1963.291667	0.202956	-0.187537
    1963.375000	0.154936	-0.168464
    1963.458333	0.172599	-0.147232
    1963.541667	0.219107	-0.124493
    1963.625000	0.274362	-0.100899
    1963.708333	0.228737	-0.077068
    1963.791667	0.287874	-0.053570
    1963.875000	0.326257	-0.030903
    1963.958333	0.370973	-0.009480
    1964.041667	0.466310	0.010379
    1964.125000	0.363958	0.028457
    1964.208333	0.246851	0.044633
    1964.291667	0.132810	0.058886
    1964.375000	-0.033683	0.071276
    1964.458333	-0.034655	0.081940
    1964.541667	0.104141	0.091067
    1964.625000	0.006656	0.098888
    1964.708333	-0.008973	0.105651
    1964.791667	-0.077836	0.111604
    1964.875000	-0.110160	0.116974
    1964.958333	-0.187885	0.121955
    1965.041667	-0.195657	0.126689
    1965.125000	0.017195	0.131259
    1965.208333	0.071024	0.135681
    1965.291667	0.191984	0.139903
    1965.375000	0.256799	0.143807
    1965.458333	0.171740	0.147216
    1965.541667	0.154932	0.149906
    1965.625000	0.278926	0.151616
    1965.708333	0.317211	0.152070
    1965.791667	0.325800	0.150994
    1965.875000	0.378527	0.148133
    1965.958333	0.408248	0.143273
    1966.041667	0.331488	0.136259
    1966.125000	0.378286	0.127009
    1966.208333	0.343245	0.115528
    1966.291667	0.228168	0.101916
    1966.375000	0.203153	0.086373
    1966.458333	0.230643	0.069198
    1966.541667	0.309112	0.050782
    1966.625000	0.182063	0.031601
    1966.708333	0.166777	0.012198
    1966.791667	0.150299	-0.006835
    1966.875000	0.126207	-0.024880
    1966.958333	0.084698	-0.041317
    1967.041667	0.028017	-0.055547
    1967.125000	-0.082642	-0.067024
    1967.208333	-0.119781	-0.075275
    1967.291667	0.025993	-0.079925
    1967.375000	0.023606	-0.080715
    1967.458333	-0.046398	-0.077519
    1967.541667	-0.180768	-0.070351
    1967.625000	-0.330381	-0.059376
    1967.708333	-0.253717	-0.044901
    1967.791667	-0.280469	-0.027374
    1967.875000	-0.319772	-0.007368
    1967.958333	-0.062095	0.014435
    1968.041667	-0.147282	0.037271
    1968.125000	-0.070809	0.060315
    1968.208333	-0.084018	0.082716
    1968.291667	-0.105332	0.103626
    1968.375000	-0.135825	0.122230
    1968.458333	0.095067	0.137780
    1968.541667	0.170652	0.149621
    1968.625000	0.185656	0.157216
    1968.708333	0.166172	0.160169
    1968.791667	0.269647	0.158238
    1968.875000	0.228972	0.151346
    1968.958333	0.239580	0.139584
    1969.041667	0.342987	0.123208
    1969.125000	0.376221	0.102629
    1969.208333	0.440917	0.078400
    1969.291667	0.496705	0.051191
    1969.375000	0.493126	0.021770
    1969.458333	0.387503	-0.009030
    1969.541667	0.327356	-0.040338
    1969.625000	0.211152	-0.071280
    1969.708333	0.289586	-0.101005
    1969.791667	0.437574	-0.128720
    1969.875000	0.385513	-0.153711
    1969.958333	0.391838	-0.175372
    1970.041667	0.407222	-0.193217
    1970.125000	0.303711	-0.206897
    1970.208333	0.358949	-0.216207
    1970.291667	0.197429	-0.221086
    1970.375000	0.207456	-0.221613
    1970.458333	0.071885	-0.217998
    1970.541667	0.130286	-0.210566
    1970.625000	-0.042502	-0.199739
    1970.708333	-0.048239	-0.186014
    1970.791667	-0.127763	-0.169939
    1970.875000	-0.160082	-0.152089
    1970.958333	-0.247830	-0.133038
    1971.041667	-0.229580	-0.113340
    1971.125000	-0.227581	-0.093503
    1971.208333	-0.234003	-0.073976
    1971.291667	-0.135746	-0.055131
    1971.375000	-0.101031	-0.037255
    1971.458333	-0.177821	-0.020545
    1971.541667	-0.207296	-0.005108
    1971.625000	-0.126444	0.009032
    1971.708333	0.034014	0.021931
    1971.791667	-0.132030	0.033704
    1971.875000	-0.182666	0.044518
    1971.958333	-0.252799	0.054566
    1972.041667	-0.138653	0.064054
    1972.125000	0.045899	0.073182
    1972.208333	-0.108988	0.082122
    1972.291667	0.028491	0.091007
    1972.375000	0.054168	0.099916
    1972.458333	0.169880	0.108864
    1972.541667	0.239564	0.117798
    1972.625000	0.400829	0.126594
    1972.708333	0.413391	0.135066
    1972.791667	0.589675	0.142964
    1972.875000	0.524782	0.149996
    1972.958333	0.485586	0.155838
    1973.041667	0.444728	0.160152
    1973.125000	0.284618	0.162605
    1973.208333	0.187052	0.162895
    1973.291667	0.106503	0.160763
    1973.375000	0.101142	0.156017
    1973.458333	0.092306	0.148548
    1973.541667	0.123965	0.138343
    1973.625000	0.083643	0.125494
    1973.708333	0.093731	0.110199
    1973.791667	-0.004719	0.092770
    1973.875000	-0.109395	0.073621
    1973.958333	-0.191648	0.053256
    1974.041667	-0.468438	0.032260
    1974.125000	-0.396110	0.011273
    1974.208333	-0.332746	-0.009026
    1974.291667	-0.285250	-0.027955
    1974.375000	-0.127806	-0.044845
    1974.458333	-0.062883	-0.059076
    1974.541667	0.050962	-0.070097
    1974.625000	0.055031	-0.077455
    1974.708333	-0.082355	-0.080815
    1974.791667	-0.194048	-0.079976
    1974.875000	-0.143963	-0.074884
    1974.958333	-0.216512	-0.065638
    1975.041667	-0.234725	-0.052492
    1975.125000	-0.197312	-0.035846
    1975.208333	-0.241876	-0.016239
    1975.291667	-0.171263	0.005673
    1975.375000	-0.251557	0.029135
    1975.458333	-0.219222	0.053322
    1975.541667	-0.118488	0.077367
    1975.625000	-0.179713	0.100396
    1975.708333	-0.305849	0.121553
    1975.791667	-0.285848	0.140038
    1975.875000	-0.361344	0.155135
    1975.958333	-0.429366	0.166235
    1976.041667	-0.427121	0.172865
    1976.125000	-0.308206	0.174698
    1976.208333	-0.314707	0.171569
    1976.291667	-0.212871	0.163481
    1976.375000	-0.074645	0.150601
    1976.458333	0.041213	0.133255
    1976.541667	0.063472	0.111912
    1976.625000	0.157265	0.087171
    1976.708333	0.236647	0.059732
    1976.791667	0.336755	0.030373
    1976.875000	0.374808	-0.000083
    1976.958333	0.111341	-0.030793
    1977.041667	0.162658	-0.060927
    1977.125000	0.067914	-0.089700
    1977.208333	-0.012082	-0.116393
    1977.291667	-0.041287	-0.140381
    1977.375000	0.101414	-0.161147
    1977.458333	0.154233	-0.178302
    1977.541667	0.091939	-0.191588
    1977.625000	0.089432	-0.200881
    1977.708333	0.097084	-0.206192
    1977.791667	0.135417	-0.207655
    1977.875000	0.220356	-0.205515
    1977.958333	0.201576	-0.200111
    1978.041667	0.247404	-0.191856
    1978.125000	0.124060	-0.181212
    1978.208333	0.120041	-0.168672
    1978.291667	0.007662	-0.154731
    1978.375000	-0.004860	-0.139867
    1978.458333	0.051915	-0.124520
    1978.541667	0.072596	-0.109075
    1978.625000	0.037497	-0.093848
    1978.708333	-0.111335	-0.079080
    1978.791667	-0.020173	-0.064929
    1978.875000	-0.040321	-0.051473
    1978.958333	-0.003409	-0.038714
    1979.041667	0.093848	-0.026587
    1979.125000	0.069445	-0.014973
    1979.208333	0.163046	-0.003716
    1979.291667	0.188996	0.007363
    1979.375000	0.186595	0.018445
    1979.458333	0.182811	0.029697
    1979.541667	0.119710	0.041250
    1979.625000	0.040776	0.053191
    1979.708333	0.096402	0.065543
    1979.791667	0.120062	0.078265
    1979.875000	0.153887	0.091240
    1979.958333	0.187269	0.104277
    1980.041667	0.156956	0.117118
    1980.125000	0.127724	0.129445
    1980.208333	0.141124	0.140893
    1980.291667	0.186225	0.151065
    1980.375000	0.299059	0.159555
    1980.458333	0.204596	0.165965
    1980.541667	0.166208	0.169926
    1980.625000	0.210172	0.171124
    1980.708333	0.255581	0.169317
    1980.791667	0.275180	0.164351
    1980.875000	0.255985	0.156178
    1980.958333	0.141664	0.144862
    1981.041667	0.044521	0.130590
    1981.125000	-0.023879	0.113664
    1981.208333	0.028652	0.094504
    1981.291667	-0.028163	0.073631
    1981.375000	0.072952	0.051657
    1981.458333	0.007084	0.029261
    1981.541667	0.133299	0.007165
    1981.625000	0.118430	-0.013889
    1981.708333	0.210157	-0.033170
    1981.791667	0.407766	-0.049986
    1981.875000	0.287173	-0.063712
    1981.958333	0.196117	-0.073815
    1982.041667	0.154317	-0.079880
    1982.125000	0.148249	-0.081627
    1982.208333	0.099855	-0.078922
    1982.291667	0.178416	-0.071794
    1982.375000	0.236572	-0.060426
    1982.458333	0.314833	-0.045161
    1982.541667	0.263864	-0.026487
    1982.625000	0.349759	-0.005021
    1982.708333	0.435166	0.018509
    1982.791667	0.472943	0.043294
    1982.875000	0.478449	0.068469
    1982.958333	0.544038	0.093146
    1983.041667	0.444286	0.116447
    1983.125000	0.551939	0.137532
    1983.208333	0.545443	0.155637
    1983.291667	0.461593	0.170093
    1983.375000	0.442642	0.180357
    1983.458333	0.564650	0.186024
    1983.541667	0.505572	0.186849
    1983.625000	0.466711	0.182744
    1983.708333	0.326387	0.173789
    1983.791667	0.190743	0.160221
    1983.875000	0.067288	0.142424
    1983.958333	0.165790	0.120912
    1984.041667	0.138551	0.096310
    1984.125000	0.136034	0.069327
    1984.208333	0.275673	0.040728
    1984.291667	0.149726	0.011306
    1984.375000	0.076849	-0.018147
    1984.458333	-0.011181	-0.046871
    1984.541667	0.133444	-0.074160
    1984.625000	0.096609	-0.099389
    1984.708333	0.239497	-0.122031
    1984.791667	0.146472	-0.141673
    1984.875000	0.067109	-0.158020
    1984.958333	-0.068681	-0.170906
    1985.041667	-0.066039	-0.180286
    1985.125000	0.004907	-0.186232
    1985.208333	-0.084241	-0.188920
    1985.291667	-0.077130	-0.188614
    1985.375000	-0.127936	-0.185651
    1985.458333	-0.130321	-0.180413
    1985.541667	0.072943	-0.173310
    1985.625000	0.151449	-0.164758
    1985.708333	0.075614	-0.155157
    1985.791667	0.013253	-0.144870
    1985.875000	0.136179	-0.134212
    1985.958333	0.095852	-0.123432
    1986.041667	0.003633	-0.112712
    1986.125000	0.120752	-0.102156
    1986.208333	0.015613	-0.091797
    1986.291667	0.058571	-0.081599
    1986.375000	0.108798	-0.071468
    1986.458333	0.159437	-0.061265
    1986.541667	0.311653	-0.050820
    1986.625000	0.210182	-0.039954
    1986.708333	0.221717	-0.028490
    1986.791667	0.263644	-0.016278
    1986.875000	0.360622	-0.003209
    1986.958333	0.249501	0.010772
    1987.041667	0.220202	0.025650
    1987.125000	0.197232	0.041335
    1987.208333	0.364045	0.057656
    1987.291667	0.302096	0.074366
    1987.375000	0.578877	0.091140
    1987.458333	0.593460	0.107593
    1987.541667	0.509884	0.123287
    1987.625000	0.539039	0.137754
    1987.708333	0.537338	0.150511
    1987.791667	0.686068	0.161087
    1987.875000	0.674689	0.169044
    1987.958333	0.489511	0.173997
    1988.041667	0.417090	0.175640
    1988.125000	0.347985	0.173764
    1988.208333	0.373091	0.168267
    1988.291667	0.308992	0.159175
    1988.375000	0.214767	0.146637
    1988.458333	0.065307	0.130937
    1988.541667	0.099464	0.112481
    1988.625000	0.186556	0.091792
    1988.708333	0.203810	0.069491
    1988.791667	0.038322	0.046282
    1988.875000	0.036295	0.022920
    1988.958333	-0.057371	0.000194
    1989.041667	-0.175936	-0.021112
    1989.125000	-0.147914	-0.040242
    1989.208333	-0.199531	-0.056501
    1989.291667	-0.252930	-0.069279
    1989.375000	-0.198976	-0.078080
    1989.458333	-0.206407	-0.082542
    1989.541667	0.020435	-0.082451
    1989.625000	-0.050451	-0.077751
    1989.708333	0.026514	-0.068553
    1989.791667	0.115954	-0.055128
    1989.875000	0.038068	-0.037901
    1989.958333	0.107024	-0.017436
    1990.041667	-0.013530	0.005583
    1990.125000	0.182039	0.030376
    1990.208333	0.047601	0.056097
    1990.291667	0.049227	0.081864
    1990.375000	0.063769	0.106788
    1990.458333	0.063156	0.130010
    1990.541667	0.053718	0.150729
    1990.625000	0.082922	0.168232
    1990.708333	0.074972	0.181915
    1990.791667	0.143769	0.191309
    1990.875000	0.082794	0.196092
    1990.958333	0.097216	0.196097
    1991.041667	0.166109	0.191317
    1991.125000	0.073181	0.181900
    1991.208333	0.071186	0.168144
    1991.291667	-0.020027	0.150476
    1991.375000	0.167838	0.129438
    1991.458333	0.265552	0.105661
    1991.541667	0.252500	0.079840
    1991.625000	0.257892	0.052706
    1991.708333	0.211071	0.024999
    1991.791667	0.210886	-0.002564
    1991.875000	0.219059	-0.029307
    1991.958333	0.272675	-0.054624
    1992.041667	0.189150	-0.077995
    1992.125000	0.194833	-0.099002
    1992.208333	0.103216	-0.117335
    1992.291667	0.234234	-0.132800
    1992.375000	0.336445	-0.145316
    1992.458333	0.229383	-0.154908
    1992.541667	0.308442	-0.161698
    1992.625000	0.272410	-0.165889
    1992.708333	0.290547	-0.167750
    1992.791667	0.288146	-0.167593
    1992.875000	0.129894	-0.165752
    1992.958333	0.023539	-0.162566
    1993.041667	-0.031115	-0.158358
    1993.125000	0.018383	-0.153413
    1993.208333	0.059198	-0.147972
    1993.291667	0.162861	-0.142211
    1993.375000	0.281305	-0.136242
    1993.458333	0.287908	-0.130106
    1993.541667	0.342057	-0.123777
    1993.625000	0.241451	-0.117165
    1993.708333	0.305802	-0.110133
    1993.791667	0.294732	-0.102501
    1993.875000	0.373501	-0.094072
    1993.958333	0.334509	-0.084642
    1994.041667	0.284634	-0.074024
    1994.125000	0.190819	-0.062062
    1994.208333	0.160319	-0.048652
    1994.291667	0.148308	-0.033755
    1994.375000	0.138472	-0.017407
    1994.458333	0.139349	0.000269
    1994.541667	-0.026223	0.019063
    1994.625000	-0.012535	0.038678
    1994.708333	0.045685	0.058737
    1994.791667	0.221774	0.078790
    1994.875000	0.142998	0.098335
    1994.958333	0.169601	0.116829
    1995.041667	0.207607	0.133718
    1995.125000	0.282712	0.148453
    1995.208333	0.214904	0.160518
    1995.291667	0.227204	0.169455
    1995.375000	0.258471	0.174882
    1995.458333	0.322989	0.176520
    1995.541667	0.266037	0.174207
    1995.625000	0.188332	0.167908
    1995.708333	0.190209	0.157727
    1995.791667	0.050995	0.143908
    1995.875000	0.139432	0.126828
    1995.958333	0.136862	0.106994
    1996.041667	0.054836	0.085023
    1996.125000	0.075601	0.061623
    1996.208333	0.115269	0.037573
    1996.291667	0.042600	0.013690
    1996.375000	0.019424	-0.009197
    1996.458333	0.160249	-0.030281
    1996.541667	0.287983	-0.048801
    1996.625000	0.172537	-0.064080
    1996.708333	0.231730	-0.075545
    1996.791667	0.230316	-0.082751
    1996.875000	0.148409	-0.085401
    1996.958333	0.013425	-0.083356
    1997.041667	-0.057136	-0.076644
    1997.125000	-0.173986	-0.065458
    1997.208333	-0.108089	-0.050149
    1997.291667	0.019919	-0.031216
    1997.375000	0.180946	-0.009287
    1997.458333	0.226888	0.014905
    1997.541667	0.360274	0.040546
    1997.625000	0.401260	0.066775
    1997.708333	0.455173	0.092714
    1997.791667	0.570500	0.117498
    1997.875000	0.727286	0.140307
    1997.958333	0.748061	0.160395
    1998.041667	0.663686	0.177119
    1998.125000	0.703280	0.189953
    1998.208333	0.628475	0.198512
    1998.291667	0.376048	0.202556
    1998.375000	0.338983	0.202001
    1998.458333	0.197600	0.196913
    1998.541667	0.121638	0.187501
    1998.625000	0.088135	0.174108
    1998.708333	0.159870	0.157190
    1998.791667	0.009717	0.137294
    1998.875000	-0.128787	0.115039
    1998.958333	-0.127232	0.091083
    1999.041667	-0.266773	0.066101
    1999.125000	-0.264919	0.040756
    1999.208333	-0.221865	0.015676
    1999.291667	-0.276757	-0.008568
    1999.375000	-0.234619	-0.031481
    1999.458333	-0.303565	-0.052659
    1999.541667	-0.008583	-0.071796
    1999.625000	-0.121754	-0.088690
    1999.708333	-0.110637	-0.103240
    1999.791667	-0.147647	-0.115444
    1999.875000	-0.227444	-0.125388
    1999.958333	-0.189929	-0.133228
    2000.041667	-0.205718	-0.139180
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    2000.208333	-0.199006	-0.146447
    2000.291667	-0.236263	-0.148303
    2000.375000	-0.230760	-0.149312
    2000.458333	-0.325694	-0.149689
    2000.541667	-0.178541	-0.149596
    2000.625000	-0.032654	-0.149137
    2000.708333	0.023480	-0.148348
    2000.791667	-0.028724	-0.147201
    2000.875000	-0.009749	-0.145599
    2000.958333	-0.197974	-0.143391
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    2002.208333	0.063819	0.067573
    2002.291667	0.124778	0.089620
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    2002.458333	0.198875	0.128963
    2002.541667	0.173087	0.145040
    2002.625000	0.081523	0.157985
    2002.708333	0.149064	0.167337
    2002.791667	0.205328	0.172740
    2002.875000	0.328355	0.173955
    2002.958333	0.499952	0.170881
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    2003.458333	-0.003081	0.074738
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    2003.791667	0.283459	-0.020460
    2003.875000	0.272214	-0.040888
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    2004.291667	0.056526	-0.088386
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    2004.458333	-0.133411	-0.075760
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    2004.625000	-0.072870	-0.045861
    2004.708333	0.196230	-0.025573
    2004.791667	0.184703	-0.002587
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    2004.958333	0.332372	0.048358
    2005.041667	0.293519	0.074640
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    2005.458333	-0.013512	0.181716
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    2005.791667	-0.033876	0.204216
    2005.875000	-0.096884	0.199239
    2005.958333	-0.029315	0.190342
    2006.041667	-0.023660	0.177895
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    2006.208333	0.008103	0.144284
    2006.291667	-0.010048	0.124235
    2006.375000	0.107568	0.102820
    2006.458333	0.091132	0.080634
    2006.541667	0.035278	0.058248
    2006.625000	0.069056	0.036182
    2006.708333	0.188550	0.014888
    2006.791667	0.230858	-0.005259
    2006.875000	0.307111	-0.023976
    2006.958333	0.360848	-0.041070
    2007.041667	0.284558	-0.056445
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    2007.208333	0.113871	-0.082063
    2007.291667	0.122583	-0.092503
    2007.375000	0.076085	-0.101585
    2007.458333	0.169771	-0.109518
    2007.541667	0.152636	-0.116522
    2007.625000	0.090468	-0.122809
    2007.708333	-0.013933	-0.128566
    2007.791667	-0.113112	-0.133939
    2007.875000	-0.190103	-0.139021
    2007.958333	-0.079173	-0.143843
    2008.041667	-0.122594	-0.148368
    2008.125000	-0.174555	-0.152490
    2008.208333	-0.196065	-0.156043
    2008.291667	-0.162512	-0.158801
    2008.375000	-0.159102	-0.160495
    2008.458333	-0.186288	-0.160832
    2008.541667	-0.111549	-0.159502
    2008.625000	0.055126	-0.156210
    2008.708333	0.154590	-0.150688
    2008.791667	0.123174	-0.142718
    2008.875000	0.104175	-0.132148
    2008.958333	-0.009447	-0.118911
    2009.041667	0.007824	-0.103036
    2009.125000	-0.042424	-0.084655
    2009.208333	0.018223	-0.064011
    2009.291667	-0.015089	-0.041450
    2009.375000	0.135083	-0.017420
    2009.458333	0.107363	0.007541
    2009.541667	0.178546	0.032825
    2009.625000	0.315797	0.057768
    2009.708333	0.376490	0.081681
    2009.791667	0.327133	0.103869
    2009.875000	0.354029	0.123662
    2009.958333	0.408874	0.140442
    2010.041667	0.399379	0.153668
    2010.125000	0.418064	0.162899
    2010.208333	0.462887	0.167816
    2010.291667	0.428680	0.168240
    2010.375000	0.398998	0.164139
    2010.458333	0.220453	0.155636
    2010.541667	0.026063	0.143006
    2010.625000	-0.094817	0.126675
    2010.708333	-0.121690	0.107200
    2010.791667	-0.057840	0.085255
    2010.875000	-0.069618	0.061609
    2010.958333	-0.036793	0.037094
    2011.041667	-0.180515	0.012581
    2011.125000	-0.102173	-0.011054
    2011.208333		-0.032963
    2011.291667		-0.052358
    2011.375000		-0.068534
    2011.458333		-0.080905
    2011.541667		-0.089015
    2011.625000		-0.092562
    2011.708333		-0.091403
    2011.791667		-0.085563
    2011.875000		-0.075230
    2011.958333		-0.060746
    2012.041667		-0.042597
    2012.125000		-0.021388
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    2012.291667		0.027328
    2012.375000		0.053245
    2012.458333		0.079105
    2012.541667		0.104103
    2012.625000		0.127482
    2012.708333		0.148558
    2012.791667		0.166748
    2012.875000		0.181580
    2012.958333		0.192712
    
  7. tallbloke says:

    Hi Tim,
    I think you’d get a better looking fit if you had kept the amplitude of the model curve the same as you had it in the headline post.

    By the way, I love the ‘show source’ trick. :)