Posted: November 17, 2012 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

tallbloke:

“The science does not exist to make detailed forecasts for temperature and snowfall for the end of this month, let alone for December or even the winter as a whole”

Originally posted on Met Office News Blog:

We wrote only last week that it seems that it is the time of year again for colourful headlines about an impending big freeze.

We had them at this time last year, which prompted our Chief Executive to write an opinion piece in The Times. Now we have very similar stories again, with the front page of the Daily Express declaring last week ‘Coldest winter freeze on way’ and warning that temperatures are set to plunge as low as -15C and again a week on we have another front page from the Daily Express which declares ‘Coldest winter for 100 years on way‘. with the UK expected to grind to a halt within weeks.

These longer range forecasts for December and January have not come from the Met Office and a look at our current 30 day forecast provides perhaps a more measured assessment of our weather prospects…

View original 303 more words

Comments
  1. Gray says:

    A round-up of web based weather sites for your information and/or amusement…

    Netweather

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

    December
    Currently the forecast model is suggesting that northern blocking (high pressure to the north of the UK) will play quite a major role during December with pressure forecast to be higher than average right across from Greenland, through into Scandinavia and east. On the ground, the current outlook is for rainfall to be below average across the northern half of the UK, but closer to or even wetter than average further south. Temperatures are forecast to be close to or colder than average.

    January
    Confidence really begins to tumble at this stage but at the time of writing, January is forecast to be a similar month to December with ‘northern blocking’ again a strong player, with a colder than average month indicated at the current time.

    Exacta Weather

    http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

    December/January/February Long Range Forecast pdf at £6…

    November

    November is likely to feature below-average temperatures as a whole. It is likely to become progressively colder as we progress throughout the month and into the start of winter, with the development of some quite severe frosts in places. These cooler periods of weather will be accompanied by further falls of snow across higher ground, and these are also likely to develop across some lower levels of the country at times too. It is also likely to be a relatively drier month overall in terms of rainfall amounts. However, some further periods of wet and windy weather are still probable to develop at times too.

    Result = Pending…

    UK Weather @ WordPress

    http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-201213/

    Excellent and highly detailed look at a variety of factors involved in UK weather forecasting.

    The Weather Outlook

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1873

    Winter Forecast due end of November…

    UK Weather Forecast TV

    http://www.ukweatherforecast.tv/winter-2012-2013-predictions-long-term-weather-forecast/

    November and December forecast (nice photos)

  2. tallbloke says:

    Thanks Gray, nice roundup.

  3. Gray says:

    Interesting Jet Stream forecast here giving a 16 day animation. Looks like things will get significantly colder from the 27th onward…Gray’s 9 day ahead forecast :)

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=

  4. Green Sand says:

    “The science does not exist to make detailed forecasts for temperature and snowfall for the end of this month, let alone for December or even the winter as a whole”

    I wonder if that is why the embedded link in the MO article purporting to take “a look at our current 30 day forecast” for “a more measured assessment of our weather prospects to the middle of December”

    Actually leads you to:-

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=fiveDay&locId=354046

    Which appears to be their 5 day forecast? Maybe I have to go there 6 times?

  5. tallbloke says:

    “Maybe I have to go there 6 times?”

    Lolz :)

  6. Ulric Lyons says:

    “The science does not exist to make detailed forecasts for temperature and snowfall for the end of this month, let alone for December or even the winter as a whole”

    It does exist, and it did particularly well in forecasting the last two winters with much detail. As the core of my forecast is based on predicting the solar signal astronomically, the length of look ahead is largely immaterial. I would be interested to see the response of the MetO to such a radical shift of forecast abilities.

  7. Ulric Lyons says:

    Have a look at David King’s December forecast, pdf in the forecast section here:

    http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/