Piers Corbyn: Severe Winter Weather Imminent for UK

Posted: January 10, 2013 by tallbloke in Analysis, solar system dynamics, weather

Express-2013-01-10

Just in from Piers Corbyn at Weather Action:

1. WeatherAction News Release and Public  10 Jan 2013Warning
– SUMMARY PUBLIC FORECAST issued because of the importance of what lies ahead for the UK and Ireland – part carried on Daily Express front page 10 Jan:

Full detailed forecast available via http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp

Extreme cold, blizzards and snow drifts “many feet deep” to bring chaos to England and Wales for at least three weeks – into early Feb
· WeatherAction forecast issued ahead of all others
This catastrophic forecast scenario was first issued in detail in mid-December by WeatherAction long range forecasters and is now starting to come true. “Other forecasters are just starting to agree with us three weeks late but they don’t realize how severe this is going to be”, said Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeratherAction.com


“Our solar-lunar based forecast predicted generally increasingly cold and very cold weather from around Sat 12th Jan for Britain and Ireland. Next, waves of major Arctic blasts and blizzards with many feet of drifting snow are likely in places from around 20th with another major blizzardy blast around the begining of February.
“England and Wales including the South are likely to get the deepest snow, while Scotland and Northern parts of Ireland will probably be very cold rather than very snowy. Some of the SouthWest of Britain and Ireland will probably get rain rather than snow at times.
· Sudden stratospheric warmings forecast breakthrough
“There will be fluctuations in the severity of this weather but our confidence in this general forecast is increased by our new breakthrough in predicting major sudden warmings of the polar stratosphere, which in a contradictory way drive blasts of very cold air south.
“Although there is something of a ‘stratospheric warming’ developing now 10 Jan”, said Piers, “we expect more intense ‘sudden stratospheric warmings’ and related cold blasts around quite well defined dates to come. We are 85% sure of this general picture and further details of the weather and stratosphere forecasts can be found via our website http://www.weatheraction.com “.
WeatherAction expect snow amounts to be as bad or worse than the record-breaking December 2010 – which they also predicted.
“Dr Stephen Wild, snow-expert at Weathernet advises that previous significant snow blasts in the last 10 years before Dec 2010 in England and Wales were: begining Jan 2010, 8-9 Feb 2007, Feb 1996 and Jan 1993″, said Piers.
“These extreme events are entirely driven by solar activity and lunar factors and nothing to do with changes in CO2 which have no effect whatsoever on weather or climate”, he added.

Comments
  1. Stephen Wilde says:

    Who is Dr Stephen Wild ???

  2. Stephen Wilde says:

    Piers got mixed up. This is from the Weathernet site:

    Dr Richard Wild
    Online home of Dr Richard Wild. Website includes history and news of heavy snowfalls and blizzards on a UK and global basis.

  3. tallbloke says:

    Lol. You are there in Piers’ mind

  4. Hans Jelbring says:

    “These extreme events are entirely driven by solar activity and lunar factors and nothing to do with changes in CO2 which have no effect whatsoever on weather or climate”, he (Piers corbyn) added.

    I certainly agree and wish Piers Corbyn good luck with this prediction since he has identified the important factor number one causing dispalcement of atmospheric mass, namely our earth-moon- sun system. This has been known for about 100 years and was extensively described in an article titled “On the occurance of lunar periods in solar activity and the climate of the earth”, 1914. The author was the swedish professor Otto Pettersson also dean of Stockholm University for a period of time. Pettersson was also extensively discussing climate issues with the more famous professor Ahrrenius who got a noble prize in chemistry and was the creator of the unproven “greenhouse” gas hypothesis.

    Planetary dynamics is causing both sunspots on the sun and mechanical motion of the atmosphere of earth. What NASA and other have missed is that gravity is not fully understood. There is a dynaical part besides the static one that Newton described. This will be shown in a proper way not to far in the future.

    Hans Jelbring

  5. Scute says:

    Right, I’m off to Waitrose to do some panic buying.

  6. tallbloke says:

    Scute, IME, the panic sets in at Waitrose when *paying* :)

  7. vukcevic says:

    I hope this is going to be seen on WUWT soon.

    Roger and Tim congratulation for often providing the lead.

    Well done Tallbloke’s Talkshop.

  8. Bloke down the pub says:

    It’s about time I got some more use out of my toboggan.

  9. tallbloke says:

    Thanks Vuk, it’s often our contributors who provide us with early knowledge on the suggestions page, so thanks to all of you too.

  10. oldbrew says:

    Hans Jelbring says:
    ‘What NASA and other have missed is that gravity is not fully understood. There is a dynaical part besides the static one that Newton described. This will be shown in a proper way not to far in the future.’

    Not wishing to go O/T but as you may know Miles Mathis insists he has solved this question with his ‘charge field’ theory. His analysis of standard moon/tide orthodoxy is amusing e.g. he calls it ‘garbage’ and explains why.

  11. Doug Proctor says:

    It was suggested to me that Piers is no more right than wrong, and that he gets away with his predictions because we remember the hits and forget the strikes. And weasel our way into agreement with ambiguity, as we find correlations in our lives with astrological charts.

    Is this the opinion of the grand Tallbloke and Not-Richard Wilde? That PC is no better than the Met Office, but has a higher level of self-promotion?

  12. Stephen Wilde says:

    Piers gives himself such a wide margin as regards variables such as timing, intensity and location that it is actually quite difficult to be completely wrong as long as his predictions bear in mind the current season and the normal range of climate characteristics for the region concerned.

    He might have pushed his luck a bit on this prediction but there is plenty of room for manoevre in the terms used and if we do get a severe spell he would gain credibility in some eyes.

    In principle, SSW events could be used as a predictive tool especially in winter for the northern hemisphere but even so their effects at the surface can be highly variable so I wouldn’t try such short term predicting myself.

    The best I have been able to do is guess reasonably well at the general characteristics of one season at a time but I try to avoid attempting it.

    However, I can tell you whether the globe is in overall warming or cooling mode from jet stream behaviour.

  13. oldbrew says:

    Remember also that Piers Corbyn issues his forecasts for the period 15-45 days ahead, unlike ‘mainstream’ meteorology.

  14. Bob Tisdale says:

    Piers, best of luck with your forecast, and for the rest you, best of luck if his forecast comes true. Brr.

    BTW, if you don’t like the winter weather that’s normal for this side of the Atlantic, please send it back. I miss shoveling snow…on second thought, cancel that. We could use some of your rain, though.

    Regards

  15. adolfogiurfa says:

    As we use to say: Buy more popcorn!

  16. Stephen Richards says:

    Stephen Wilde says:

    January 10, 2013 at 4:54 pm

    Piers gives himself such a wide margin as regards variables such as timing, intensity and location that it is actually quite difficult to be completely wrong as long as his predictions bear in mind the current season and the normal range of climate characteristics for the region concerned

    I’m not sure that you are entirely correct. Piers has forecast extreme cold when the MO has forecast average or above. That seems to me to be an opportunity to be wrong. He has always stated that his ‘extreme periods’ are +- 1 day which is not unreasonable a month ahead. I guess the real question is whether he get the weather type correct. The ‘official’ forecasters are happy if the cyclones and anti-cyclone are roughly in the ‘right’ relative positions after a week (7days).

    I haven’t bought one of his forecasts yet so am reluctant to critique them but you can use his archive to test him.

    I have in past criticised his website and his language as unprofessional and still do but that to be opinion and therefore taste.

  17. Craig M says:

    The mentions of further ssw events is showing up in current strat model forecasts. The standard forecasts for ecmwf/ukmo/gfs are showing v cold weather centered on 14/15th [1]. To say the models have struggled is an understatement! Ian Ferguson commented that the Shannon entropy for this weekend was the highest ever.

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75501-why-record-breaking-shannon-entropy/

    This cold spell hitting three weeks after solstice chimes with my thoughts (viz. 1883/1947) on the winter lasting till equinox tho with a degree of waxing and waning.

    “The strangest thing about 1947, was the first part of the winter was very mild, with only 2 failed cold spells…The weather in fact, turned unseasonably mild for a time.”

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=famous-winters;sess=

    Piers comments were interesting
    “1947, yes I ‘know’ I was born on the day of the thaw 10th March. It is true 2013 – 3×22 =1947 and that is important and does matter. However without commenting on the forecast the 22 yr connection is ‘fuzzy’. Take last summer which one might compare with 1946. For England and Wales rain the dryness order was Jun46 193/247. Jul46 117/247 = mean position 155/247 so yes on the wet side of normal but not catastrophically so as was 2012.”

    http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=511&c=5

    1. When I say centered on 14/15th I mean that’s when things step up a gear.

  18. THANKS FOR POSTING! Richard Wild and Stephen Wilde, my apologies for the mix-up especially since Richard had gone to the trouble to give us some facts, Just as well the Express didnt use that bit. It is now corrected in the full statement on Weatheraction.com Thanks

  19. Stephen Wilde says:

    Hi Piers.

    Thanks for arranging the correction.

    I appreciate your attempts to refine and improve new forecasting techniques and would be pleased if you could establish an incontrovertible improvement over the Met. Office product.

    Jet stream behaviour and SSW events are clearly relevant in broad terms but it remains incredibly difficult to move from that to specific short term weather phenomena.

    Good luck anyway.

  20. Joe's World {Progressive Evolution} says:

    TB,

    There is so much bias reporting in the US and Canada that I do not hear any cold predictions. Always hear about hot conditions and global warming.
    Currently a 24 hour swift moving weather system from the deep south will be giving us “record breaking” temperatures for a few hours as it blows through.

  21. James P says:

    “an incontrovertible improvement over the Met. Office product”

    I thought the MO had given up on long-range forecasting, which is Piers’s bread and butter – almost literally, as people have to buy his forecasts. He does hype things a bit (I could do with fewer tweets) but I can understand his frustration at establishment behaviour. You’d think DECC could afford £15/month, if only to get a broader picture…

  22. tchannon says:

    I was going to comment about 10 days ago on the event 19/20/21st but thought better of it.

    A fight is starting which is very difficult for modelling. Either the Atlantic flow will win or longer term blocking will win.

    Condition are cold ground over most of the country with a strong front trying to push in from the west. Initially this was projected to start 18th but has now slipped a little.

    If it does succeed snow turning to rain is likely but more easterly and northerly staying as snow is possible.

    It now looks like it fails, some snow followed by more and then 23rd rain from north west and less cold from a large Icelandic low.

  23. Frazer Irwin says:

    Born in 47 – It snowed. Started work in 62/3 – It snowed. Retired 13 – It’s on it’s way.
    I go by Mother’s birthday – 12th Janurary. Bad weather always followed.

    Well done Piers.

  24. Antony Guats says:

    “In principle, SSW events could be used as a predictive tool especially in winter for the northern hemisphere but even so their effects at the surface can be highly variable so I wouldn’t try such short term predicting myself.”

    On SSW:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/16/1179397/-Sudden-Stratospheric-Warming-Split-the-Polar-Vortex-in-Two

    All kicked off in mid December so not hard to guess what would happen next… even for someone like yourself ;)

  25. The MET Office explain how they discovered this latest SSW:

    http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/News/Features/827337?l=en

  26. julie says:

    Wow am quite suprised at our weather in Sw Ireland last couple of days since Sunday Jan 20th we have had15cms of snow in kerry very unusual which has frozen making conditions treacherous! Is this likely to happen again into February?

  27. tallbloke says:

    Julie: Welcome. It’s very hard to call at the moment. Freezing point is the boundary condition between usual Irish winter wetness and treacherous ice. Forecasts rarely get the temperature right within a couple of degrees, and it’s only just below freezing now. (-12.5C in Cambridge last night though).

    My guess, for what it’s worth, (which isn’t much at the moment) Is that winter sunshine today and tomorrow will clear a lot of areas of ice and snow, but cold nights will mean patchy ice continuing to be a hazard on roads, particularly in shaded sections.

    Stay safe, stay warm.

  28. Brian H says:

    Hans;
    The Nobel Prize is hardly ever a noble prize these days.

    Hint: it’s a name. Of a famous person. Who was a dynamite inventor. Of dynamite, e.g.

  29. Ulric Lyons says:

    I didn’t think that the cold would continue till the end of January. I forecast cold starting from the 8/9th Jan, and warming up again from the 18/19th. As it turned out, there was an uplift in the solar signal from the 18th, but the increased Atlantic flow was blocked till the 26th, and the battle of the air masses resulted in the snowy outcome. After a week of bashing, the westerlies did eventually break through.

  30. Angel Wynton says:

    A Large Cold Reservoir of air is coming to Europe end of march..this could be the start of a ice age.
    This map is not normal for the end of march, this High Pressure we never seen before.