Britain’s Press Buzzes About Wintry Weather: Meanwhile In Norway…

Posted: January 18, 2013 by Rog Tallbloke in Forecasting, humour, weather

norway-snow

Piers Corbyn over at weather action is very pleased with the success of his forecast made back in December for snow to arrive as a result of a sudden stratospheric warming around mid January. Well done Piers. The rest of the forecasting community was late to this.

Piers says:

What to Do
- To help cope with the dangerous very cold and snowy/blizzardy weather in UK, Eire, and Europe and USA**, and also Asia or anywhere in the world.
(i) DOUBLE OR TREBLE all snow amount forecasts on TV from 24/12 hr ahead.
(ii) EXPAND ALL THE WARNING REGIONS GIVEN on TV
(iii) INCREASE ALL WINDS (fronts will become more active and isobars tighter)
NOTE for Europe /Britain & Ireland Greenland and / or Scandinavian Highs are likely to strengthen – encouraging colder blasts and impeding less cold air from the West.
(iv) HELP others at risk
** For USA information see http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news

What Will Happen
Expected Events around the WeatherAction forecast Sudden (Increased) Polar Stratospheric Warming (SSW) ~17-18 Jan and associated R5+ (17-20) & QV5+ (16-19) Periods

1. Around 16/17/18/19th we expect the red region of the warmed stratosphere in the monitor/ standard projection link below to expand / darken (warm) rapidly.
Standard dynamic moving model smoothed record and projections of 30mb temps
This shows temp of Stratosphere: http://twitpic.com/bsk4gb/full There are various measures around. WeatherAction forecast was issued Jan3, before model forecasts for the dates of WeatherAction SSWs.
OBSERVED: The flic (which includes short time ahead projections) shows a ‘step like’ expansion and darkening over Asia around 16-18th FORECAST EXCELLENTLY CONFIRMED.
Other measures of SSWs confirm this rapid growth. This SSW is a record breaker in observed stratospheric warming terms already.

2. Shortly after – eg 18-19-20-21 we expect rapid expansion southward of the Greenland High. The Scandinavian High might also / instead expand but our main expectation is the Greenland High (see eg GFS maps link below). These changes will surprise standard meteorology.
GFS monitor / forecast: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=0&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
OBSERVED: There is some evidence of this already but we need to wait.

3. Excited polar-type lows in the associated airflow from the North over Norway Sea / North of North sea will bring snow/blizzards to N/E Britain while other activity in West/SW brings snow/blizzards to West parts.

4. During this time the reliability horizon of standard Met will reduce to 24-48hrs TOPS

5. Major Solar Active regions forecast to appear and be ~earth facing in this period. CONFIRMED.
AR1656 to AR1654 Earth facing 15th. AR1654 is a very large significant area visible to the naked eye under the right circumstances – see link; http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?month=01&day=15&year=2013&view=view

6. Major Earthquake(s) M6.5+ in the QV5+ (16-19th) period
See http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
There has been an M6.1 on 15th 16.09gmt in the Antarctic within our standard half a day of 16-19th in line with SH prob preferred in this period – see http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=33

Earlier Observations – Jan 14.
The standard projections of Jan 14 show a rapid increase in Stratospheric temperature 17-21st (especially 17-18th so the timing of the WeatherAction SSW forecast is CONFIRMED) with the red area in two halves spreading to roughly the whole of Asia and to the whole of Canada plus the northern half of USA.
We are monitoring the polar stratospheric Temperature as well as Pressures especially Greenland High and Scandinavian High.

Piers Corbyn 16/17 Jan 2012 +447958713320

What to Look out for in coming events
The Brit+Ire 30day forecast carries key dates of WeatherAction predicted SUDDEN polar stratospheric warmings and expected key surface pressure and weather events.
Further detail is in Eu pressure forecasts & commentary and RTQ (Red Warning, Thunder/tornado and Quake (trial) (Extreme Events Rest Of world) Forecasts
=> These are available as part of the Eu 30day service and B+I 45d service on

http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp

Note subscriptions NOW to B+I 45d service get these December pdfs AND on 15th Jan also get the B+I 45d forecast for Feb. Seize the time!

CO2 warmists in double whammy retreat
· UKMetO bends towards WeatherAction cold forecast! Standard Met can’t cope with new reality of coming new LittleIceAge Superb graph from Joe Bastardi: http://bit.ly/Vf8Vtr
· Campaign message of the week : LEARN, UNDERSTAND AND PASS ON!
FACT: Met Office data is still fraud THE WORLD IS COOLING http://bit.ly/UkErVX
Almost Right! UKMetO DOWNGRADE ‘Global Warming’!! http://bit.ly/11cTHv5
For the facts of CO2 warmist fraud by MetO-BBC-CRU (Uni of East Anglia) see http://twitpic.com/bu5bw1/full

2. Recent News / Regular WeatherActionTV reports:
● Jan Forecast news B+I, Eu, USA, Quakes/thunder – Extreme Events world NEWS REPORTS IN news sections of WeatherAction 30day JAN 2013 forecast pdfs
Europe WeatherAction Dec forecast won through – Report http://twitpic.com/brwxlq/full
Brit+Ire WeatherAction Dec forecast wins battle of Britain – Report http://twitpic.com/brx0hw/full
USA WeatherAction Dec Extremes forecast ‘brilliant’ Report twitpic.com/brx1gi/full

Comments
  1. colliemum says:

    Snow has been coming down overnight and is steadily falling (Cardiff). In the early morning, there were gusty winds from the E, and there were icy grains mixed with the snow – not nice to be out in that, but a dog has to do what a dog has to do …
    No cars, no mail, a few intrepid dog walkers: that’s all.
    Situation unchanged this p.m., the worry is that the slushy snow on the roads and pavements will turn icy overnight.
    I hope you’ve been prepared, what with groceries etc.
    Keep safe – and when the sun shines, enjoy!

  2. tallbloke says:

    We did a big grocery shop on the way home last night. Now relaxing by our big Morsø woodburner with hearty stew cooking on top, looking out of the window at the snow.. :)

  3. jazznick says:

    Piers’ success seems to have led to the crash of his website (3.15).
    Hopefully not another cyber attack – just happy customers.

  4. J Martin says:

    LittleIceAge Superb graph from Joe Bastardi: http://bit.ly/Vf8Vtr

    I would like to see that superb graph, but the link doesn’t work.

  5. vukcevic says:

    ‘Independent’ in 2000 and 2013: brief reminder
    Then : snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past
    Now: : snow-chaos-flights-and-trains-cancelled-schools-and-roads-closed
    Then:
    Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
    Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
    It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years.
    Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
    “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
    But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change – into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.
    Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.
    David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately,
    British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes – or eventually “feel” virtual cold.
    The chances are certainly now stacked against the sort of heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in “London Snow” of it, “stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying”.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

    Now:
    Snow chaos: Flights and trains cancelled, schools and roads closed, 36 hours of blizzards and 10,000 without electricity. Flights have been cancelled, train companies have axed rail services and roads across the country have been closed as Britain’s transport system struggles to cope with heavy snowfall.
    Drivers were warned to avoid all but essential journeys in south Wales amid strong winds, plunging temperatures and the looming threat of blizzards.
    Forecasts also forced hundreds of schools to shut their doors, meaning some sixth-form and college students saw their A-level exams postponed.
    The adverse weather has already sparked panic-buying and left more than 10,000 people without electricity. Amber alerts were in place for the Midlands, London and the South, the east of England, the South West, the North West and Northern Ireland.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/snow-chaos-flights-and-trains-cancelled-schools-and-roads-closed-36-hours-of-blizzards-and-10000-without-electricity-8453159.html

  6. tchannon says:

    I suppose every generation has to learn the hard way except the lesson is longer than a generation.

    Nothing so far I’ve not seen before far more extreme in England.

    And had described by older relatives.

    It’s called weather, changes, comes and goes.

  7. Roger Andrews says:

    We’re having a cold snap at latitude 20N in Mexico too. Midday temperature is only 57F and everyone’s freezing their buns off.

  8. tchannon says:

    Should most places turn to slush Weds night and cold rain sweeps the country.

    As ever, things can change before then.

  9. vukcevic says:

    I was watching the news with a single snow plough clearing the motorway, then came across this showing how it is done:

  10. tchannon says:

    Oh yes, that is how to do it.

  11. vukcevic says:

    Gray, I am inclined to think that the SSW is triggered by the Kamchatka’s volcanic eruptions in late December
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSW2012-13.htm
    btw. there was only one case of SSW in the Antarctic during last 30 years, and it can be linked to Mount Erebus volcano.

  12. tallbloke says:

    Vuk, this paper links SSW’s with solar proton storms:
    http://www.shao.az/SG/v3n1/SG_v3_No1_2008-p-10.pdf

    Will you come to the september conference I’m organising?

  13. vukcevic says:

    Hi Tb
    I usually go to Monte Negro for 10-14 days in mid-September, all the best with the conference. Will follow if there is a recording of the event.

  14. tallbloke says:

    Our provisional date is the 5-6th Sept if that helps. It would be a good opportunity for poster presentation of your work and networking with people who make the data you use.

  15. vukcevic says:

    Rog,
    I have not made any arrangements as yet, but as an alternative, I could make one or two graphs (of your choice and specifications) with some facts, to stick somewhere in a dark corner, if that would be okay.

  16. Gray says:

    vukcevic

    Interesting point. No less than seven of the Kamchatkan volcanoes are showing signs of activity currently with four on orange alert.

    http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/avoreport.php?view=kaminfo

    Maybe were going to get some Russian snow here in the UK then:

    http://rt.com/news/winter-snow-russia-weather-275/

  17. tallbloke says:

    Vuk: Sounds good, I’ll do my best to draw attention to the dark corner by putting a spotlight in it. ;)

    Gray: You coming?

  18. Gray says:

    tallbloke, I’d love to if circumstances permit.