I hope Wetterzentrale will accept a link in return for showing a chart here. Click image for access to the whole series.
500 hPa level for 23rd Feb 2013
Wejkoff bridge as mention by Michele Casati recently in a Talkshop comment here, where this winter these conditions repeatedly threaten, so maybe it is a matter of when.
The UK has been under cool conditions for some time, with a brief warming at the end of the past week, at the weekend it is settling into little wind under high pressure.
We seem to have solid blocking conditions keeping an Atlantic flow at bay, bouncing off to the south and north.
The longer conventional forecasts are showing a sustained separation through almost to March but that is too far ahead given these kinds of condition are notoriously difficult to model.
Winds are from the east, cold winds, moderated a little by the North Sea.
Out a moderate way ahead Nautica show the separation of pressure quite clearly http://www.eurometeo.com/english/chart/id_mslp4029, explore the dates (controls to the left).
netweather agree out to 27th Feb, you’ll have to select content
GFS model is showing snow over Germany, Scandinavia far out and suggests some scattered snow east coast of UK, typical of winter blocking, although this is getting late in the season for really cold.
metview produced by a New Zealander gives a useful overview of how things are forecast to develop
Foregoing is my personal view, paraphrasing Murray Walker ‘… anything can go wrong. And probably will.”
Having endured a lousy last year, water wings and no light, now we get chilly. We want some sunshine and warm, but that will just feed the hotheads.
Post by Tim Channon