In the document backing up Dame Slingo of Somerset’s reframing of weather as climate we find this gem:
Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030. This equates to 23-27cm (9-10½ inches) of total sea level
rise since 1900.
(c)Crown Copyright 2014, Met Office, NERC
NOTE THAT MET-O has changed their wording a little: SEE UPDATE HERE:
Tim Channon has plotted this so we can take a look at what the MET Office is telling us:
See figure 1. Note units, 11-16cm is 110 to 160 mm.
The International Hydrographic Organization defines the limits of the English Channel as follows:
On the West. A line joining Isle Vierge (48°38’23?N 4°34’13?W) to Lands End (50°04′N 5°43′W).
On the East. The Southwestern limit of the North Sea.
Areas of falling land and rising sea levels:
Somerset, Cornwall and Devon
Dorset, Hampshire and Sussex
Kent and Essex
No excuse there of rising land.
Brest is almost abreast the English Channel but this a very long record, if unlikely to be correct. So what is that rough eyeball, 200 millimetre since 1900, 20 centimetres? Is ballpark “This equates to 23-27cm (9-10½ inches) of total sea level rise since 1900.”
Newlyn data? I usually avoid annual.
There is a circa 20 year wave but no sign of more than a linear or very long term curve which did not show. Fast movement shows signs of impossible periodicy, such as much too close to 3 and 6 years which if combined seem to fingerprint a linearity problem somewhere or Nyquist at work. I don’t think this substantially affects the outcome.
h/t to http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/02/09/met-office-report-says-sea-levels-likely-to-rise-11-16-cm-by-2030/
Posted by Tim