Aerology

Roger has been nice enough to provide Aerology a page on Tallbloke’s Talkshop to keep a recent status on the Aerology forecasting method accuracy evaluation and inclusion to ForecastWatch. Roger and I have been discussing our collaborative research for the past two years and I’m excited to share the status of the forecast’s accuracy evaluation as things develop.

The forecasting method behind Aerology is based upon the interlocking cyclic pattern in the inner planet returns, and lunar orbital dynamics cycles, that is also synchronized to the magnetic rotation of the sun. I have been generating forecast maps by this methodology since 1990, but the current evolution of the website has been posted online since December 27, 2008.

Eric Floehr recently contacted me for inclusion into ForecastWatch – a service dedicated to helping weather forecasters evaluate their forecasting methods in relation to other forecast services. I have long wanted to get an independent evaluation of how the analog forecast I generate from past cycles of raw data from 19, 37, and 55 years ago compiled together in regard to actual repeatability to show how the cyclic pattern does compared to the numerical models that always fall apart in 7 to 10 days simply because they do not consider any of the lunar tidal forces as important.

It has been my experience from looking at these patterns since 1990 that they should be at least equal or better than the 5 day out forecast the models generate. IF they can beat that level of accuracy – then it would to me prove that the repeating patterns are the XX% of the drivers behind the weather.

With the basic idea of mine that these forces and their patterns should be incorporated into the numerical models, to take advantage of the increase in length of time they will then be accurate so as to give farmers and construction workers, as well as severe weather warning forecasters more time to change plans or issue watches, warnings, and evacuations, to save many lives, as well as much property damage, and crop loss.

The forecast data he’ll be evaluating was forecast (using the Aerology analog forecasting method) 3 years ago. To have daily forecasts with any kind of accuracy out past two weeks will be a first for the world as far as main stream meteorologists are concerned. From further evaluating the results he gets I will be guided in my upgrade of the forecast method and further generation of longer series of daily maps.

Currently, we’re waiting to hear back on the incorporation of the data into ForecastWatch and the analysis of forecast’s accuracy evaluation – these processes should be completed within a month or so. I’ll continue to post updates to this page as the analysis develops, the evaluation is released and as we explore the possibility of incorporation of these patterns into numerical models.

Thanks again to Roger for giving me the opportunity to share this exciting development on Tallbloke’s Talkshop. Looking forward to posting news as it becomes available.

For more information on Aerology and the analog forecasting method behind it, please visit aerology.com.

New Map format 1 degree contour line 32F is white contour line, the composite first then the four past cycles to compare how repetitive the cycles might be.

new map foremat tmin composite

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20120131_tmin-first2-1-1993.png

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20120131_tmin-second12-26-1974.png

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20120131_tmin-third1-11-1957.png

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20120131_tmin-fourth1-28-1939.png

Maximum temp maps composite first then the cyclic components start below.

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20120131_tmax.png

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20120131_tmax-first2-1-1993.png

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20120131_tmax-second12-26-1974.png

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20120131_tmax-third1-11-1957.png

http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20120131_tmax-fourth1-28-1939.png

Posted these to show how much reparation there is between cycles of daily weather patterns 6558 days apart. Now able to post color scale for temperatures at this time but will update asap.

These maps added January 6th 2012.  by Richard Holle

 

Comments
  1. Heard from Eric today the problems he is having with the data analysis comes from the use of all valid data from all stations on line in the past cycles, due to the moving and great dieing of the thermometers only 869 stations are on his “current list” and re-identification of all past stations relative to the current accepted location closest to the originals it rather time consuming.

    “It also means that the same forecast point isn’t always used, but that likely doesn’t matter too much with your forecasts, so long as they are close. But it would have been easier to process had their been consistent lat/longs across files.”

    “The second, and more difficult lat/long problem, is that in the same file there are often the exact same lat/long but with different forecast values. Take “39.033334,-76.933334″, just north of Washington, DC, for example. It often appears many times in a single file, often with different values. Just as one example, for March 2, 2011, the forecast high could either by 71 or 72, and the forecast low can be either 34, 37, 39, or 41. How should I deal with cases like this?”

    It seems that in the original data sort and consolidation to the tables much of this type of problem was averaged out, but some of the District of Columbia area got missed, along with the whole state of Pennsylvania.

    “The last thing, for now, is that did you know you don’t have any points, in any of the files, that are in Pennsylvania?”

    That’s what QA is supposed to be about, finding errors and correcting them, I have made an appointment to talk to the original programmer, about the inclusion of more standard methods of data processing, and a more complete list of suggestions from Eric, for consideration in the rewriting of the software to remove errors and bugs we have found. I originally wanted to use the densest amount of data possible, by using all of the stations available from the entire data set.

    “Because of the state of the files, it’s going to take a lot of additional processing to generate forecasts for the verification points I have observation data for. Any thoughts you have on making that easier certainly would make the accuracy calculations go easier.”
    “Eric”
    I want to include Canada and Alaska stations in the 2nd generation set of maps, I am much encouraged by the depth of QA help I am going to get out of this evaluation process. Ryan the programmer and I will try to sort out the repairs for the data errors found already and come up with a better process that better represents “Standard best practices” now that we know what they should be from our first attempt four years ago, with out good QA feedback.

  2. Ryan is loading the Canadian data into the tables this weekend and the 0″ precipitation problems is an easy fix. To change “less than or equal to zero = null” just remove the “than or = to” part of the CSV generation code line. I need to find a complete data set for as many stations as possible for the UK to do that forecast and Australia as well.

    The reference frame and required mask to the outline of the additional maps is simple enough, once the raw is tabled in the same format just an edit to the reference frame of the map set in question is all that we need to change. Have a max of 2TB hard drive space as of Friday on the server available for my use.

    Will be changing the contour line temperature resolution to 1 degree F instead of 10 degrees F, Just need to make the new color graduation file to show the new scale, and change the map draw resolution from 10 to 01.

  3. Canadian data is now all extracted and tabled, we will be adding Alaska and Canada as one separate map with its own pages, to augment the USA maps, Australian Data has been found and will be purchased from the BOM as soon as it is updated to include the first quarter of 2011. [first or second week of June it will ship].

    working on adding an additional 6558 day long cycle starting in 1938 as it might better reflect the slower solar cycle we are in. In the process of tweaking out the data sorting/compiling process of making the CSV files for the maps to accommodate the changes needed due to the additional learning I have been doing in the past four years.

    Still working on the number of nearest neighbors used in the griding process to best show the detail in precipitation patterns, as well as the UHI around cities and cooler areas around large lakes and reservoirs in the more detailed temperature maps.

    Things are still slow going because of the massive data base, total of all reporting stations with valid data for each day for all four cycles will be used to generate each daily map, if the next day two stations have no records the maps will reflect a slight loss of resolution in the areas of missing data.

    My opinion is that most of the earths surface is not a prime siting area for a weather station, so reality is that if the readings are with in the +/- 3 degrees of the actual temperatures forecast, then that seems to me to prove that the cycle repeats as well as the data records can provide, and this will be as good as it can get.

    I will be happy if I can average +/- 5 degrees of the actuals for the forecast days, because that is as good as the NWS gets out to 3 days into the future. Waiting for the update from the programmer on next steps to work on….

  4. […] HomeAbout meAerologyBlog rulesHall of fameHall of ShamePredictions!SuggestionsTagline data […]

  5. Had a few problems for Canada, with the conversion of metric to SAE upon proofing the data I found we had forgotten to change the decimal placement to get hundredths of inches instead of whole inches into the existing format so could see almost no Precip was still reduced by 1/100 of the real value, and 1/10 of the real snow values.

    Recalculated the amounts post conversion and we are now finishing up the retabling of the proofed data in the right format. Hoping to get CSV files grids, and Map samples at the new higher resolution to post on here ASAP. (By the weekend)

    Got the Australian data set ordered and shipped yesterday A$776.50 or US$ 831.00 for all three sets Temperatures, Precipitations, and an additional set of dew points, wind data, and surface pressures.

    I think the dew point plotting will carry extra info on the specific heat content of the air masses, I expect to better follow current than just the air temps do. Might take a couple of months to get the Australian data made into maps, but do plan on starting showing of the forecast maps from about June 2010, with the same color scale format actuals from June 2010, until the end of the data set April 2011.

    I want to display the two sets, the composite forecast and the actuals for the same dates, side by side, then switch to just the forecast composites past that date. I will keep expanding the outlook into the future for up to 10 years out, for all three the USA, Canada, and Australia, as I am able to process and post maps into the future.

  6. Sample screen shots of the new map resolution, (for 2-14-2011 Low temps) showing the increased amount of detail available in the data base that was not originally obvious, down to the surface land use and topographical contouring that creates micro climates that mankind has taken advantage of to urbanize and farm.

    I think this will greatly enhance the usability of the forecasts for farmers, ranchers, construction workers moving dirt, forestry services, and mining operations.

    http://research.aerology.com/project-progress/map-detail/

  7. tallbloke says:

    Very nice maps!

  8. Got an update from Eric today, we have both been busy with our own projects and he has supplied me with a quote for the forecast setup services and a years subscription to his service, described;

    Where we stand on the progress;
    “As for delivery, I could do an analysis of the forecast format, etc.
    like I did last time to make sure it’s suitable for import by the end
    of September. Then once any corrections are made, do the full
    setup/import code. If that went well (there were few corrections
    needed, etc.) I could import September 2011 before October 15, which
    would allow you to then see the September aggregations and data in
    mid-October.”

    working with huge data sets makes for slow progress, when I have limited funds available, but slow progress is better than no progress. The programer and I are still working out the details of the masking of the maps, and the rebuilding of the site layout to allow all of the additional maps in the higher resolution format. I am hoping to bring on line all of the additional features and the ongoing validation of the forecast accuracy by the first of the year 2012.

  9. tallbloke says:

    Hi Richard, I watched the demo. It looks like a very powerful tool for checking your hypotheses. Solid progress, well done!

  10. I think the evaluation process will point out the short term shifts in the solar/lunar patterns with the synod conjunctions with the outer planets. I expect the resultant departures to follow the rise in temps to conjunction then fall for about 5 days following. As well as the locations of the shift in precipitation patterns and amounts. It is my hope that the evaluation process will help me build a workable algorithm to incorporate the outer planet patterns of the disruption in the inner planet lunar declinational tidal patterns that will define the other 20% of the temporal disruptions, but more extreme excursions of the natural variability patterns.

  11. Got a look at the output from Eric’s evaluation of the forecast abilities of the repeating patterns of the inner planets, starting yesterday for the month of October. It is clear [from even the state wide scale] of the shift in phase and spatial/temporal relationships that the signal from the interference of the outer planets shows up in the digital data as well as the GOES satellite photos. Most of November 2011 until mid April will be outer planet interference free from conjunctions, which should give me a nice calm period to see how well the cyclic pattern works as a fore cast.

    More details when I get permission to quote the results.

    Hope to have new detailed maps going online for the USA by middle of the next month.

  12. tallbloke says:

    Exciting news indeed Richard! I think you should start making a few specific predictions here and appraising the results after the fact. Success there will definitely start arousing more interest. Correlation-prediction-validation. This process can put your hypothesis on a strong footing without the need to fully explicate mechanism at this stage.

  13. Here is a sample of the data, code still being tweaked into final form.

    Uploaded the csv files for the new maps October 2011, through end of January 2012, for North America to a dropbox file available to all on the internet. Sent these to Eric for processing for accuracy evaluation, will update again when I hear from him.

    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/37184697/CSVFiles.zip

    38 MB zip file in total for download expands to 173MB as 3,049 csv files of the map composite for North America.

    These result are from the days back from today search results I am now using. the numbers are different for the precips than the temperatures, due to the seasonal shift in temperatures is much more sensitive to 27 day shifts in calendar dates from different past patterns than the location and by the amount of precip changes by smaller amounts is due to dew point shifts, even though the air mass movements globally are still much the same flow patterns.

    The look back dates used for Precip are 6,992, 13,550, 20,108, and 26,666 before the present cycle date a forecast is sought for.

    The look back days used for Temperatures are 6,938, 13,496, 20,108, and 26,666 before present date of forecast inquiry.

    These are for the new map format, with the color scale for the new 1 degree increment temperature contours. These new csv files are the latest data I am using to generate the new maps, and have been working out the bugs in the automated process for the new site revision, the process has been ongoing now for 8+ months and we are finally to the point of doing the site layout graphic rework and text up dates for the about page, and new features for the home page and additional Canadian maps pages.

    I made a compressed file for the Jpg maps themselves but the size is 2.65 Gig and too big to use dropbox (max 300Meg files), Rog if you have a ftp site where I could upload the maps (2.7 gig of space needed) I could do that instead.

    Did manage to upload a set of Tmax and Tmin maps for 2012-01-31 forecast with the respective four past cycles of data for visual comparison of the repeatability between cycles. Feel free to clean up any mess I have left on your site Roger and thanks for the page space.

  14. Tornado prediction for spring with mention of heavy snow and ice storms as well, posted on WUWT.

    In response to http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/se-us-severe.html

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/01/tornado-outbreak-tracking/

    Richard Holle says:
    March 1, 2012 at 6:47 pm

    Once again the Lunar declinational tidal effect is responsible but goes unmentioned, The moon was maximum North declination on the 1st of March, the solar declination seasonal tide is incoming from the South adding to the effect and making the resultant tropical air mass surge two days sooner than the usual, peak production on the day of Maximum North lunar declination and three days after.

    I have had daily forecast maps for this expected precipitation posted for 51 months now;

    http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx

    Details on how it works are posted on the site, in the blog/research section.

    You can watch the incoming lunar tidal bulge sweep in from the Southwest in their short movie, and the back side more polar air mass brings in the negative static/ionic charges that gave added power to the temperature front to drive the condensation high enough to generate the tornadoes.

    Over the next three days as the fetch of moisture slides East across Texas into the Gulf states, and the moon starts to head South again, Just as we are having a heliocentric conjunction with Mars on the 3rd, this is very likely to bring on another round of tornadoes.(they got that part right anyway) see my maps for these days as well.

    Last year the big outbreak was enhanced by the heliocentric conjunction with Saturn, on the 3rd of April, which will be occurring on the 15th of April this year, so you can expect more outbreaks to occur from the 4-10-2012 Maximum South lunar declination and four day after window, another much larger 2 or 3 day burst as the moon crosses the equator on 4-17-2012. Then the heavy action through the end of the month of April, ending in last hurrah of big snows into the first week of May. Appalachian Ice storm seems to be on the 3rd through 5th of May, buy your replacement power poles early.

  15. Higher definition global circulation video showing the lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere, three cycles from 10 degrees North of the equator to max North,then back through the cycles to the same point again. Christmas of 2009 through March 8th 2010.

  16. Hans says:

    Richard,

    Your work is very impressive. Just to do cyclic patterns recognition on images as you are doing will lead forward a lot even if you don´t understanding a bit of what is driving the atmospheric motion involved.
    Your emphases on the lunar sidereal period is spot on and a key for investigating tidal energy transfer in the atmosphere (wind and precipitation generation)
    Your 6558 cycle is new to me. What is the reason you don´t use the SAROS cycle?

    Holle cycle
    222 Tmsyn = 6555.79 days
    240 Tmsid = 6557.20
    238 Tmanom = 6557.98
    241 Tmdrac = 6558.14

    SAROS cycle
    223 Tmsyn = 6585.32
    241 Tmsid = 6584.52
    239 Tmanom = 6585.54
    242 Tmdrac = 6585.36

    A question: According to what I have learnt the tide at the South Pole (Weddel Sea I guess) is only once a day. Do you know if it is caused by the sidereal lunar tide or the synodic lunar tide? I would be grateful for your answer. I would also be very interested in what period you consider be the QBO correct average QBO period and how it relates to the celestial bodies you consider vital for its creation?

  17. tchannon says:

    Rhetorical wondering: how does this relate to what Piers Corbyn thinks goes on.

  18. Hans;Your 6558 cycle is new to me. What is the reason you don´t use the SAROS cycle?

    Holle cycle
    222 Tmsyn = 6555.79 days
    240 Tmsid = 6557.20
    238 Tmanom = 6557.98
    241 Tmdrac = 6558.14

    SAROS cycle
    223 Tmsyn = 6585.32
    241 Tmsid = 6584.52
    239 Tmanom = 6585.54
    242 Tmdrac = 6585.36

    There is a four fold symmetry to the Rossby wave and jet stream driven by the “240 Tmsid = 6557.20″ declinational tidal movement, if I use the 241 cycles in the Saros cycle they are out of phase and the interference kills the synchronicity of the weather data, by using the 240 cycle period the signal to noise ratio goes up 14 times, compared to the Saros cycle. This effect is quite visible if you look at the different periods I sorted tornado production numbers by;
    the Metonic, Saros, and my 6558 day cycle

    http://research.aerology.com/lunar-declinational-affects-on-tornado-production/

    The differences in the location in the incoming MPH per each of the four repeating cycles shifts around and the average of the four together is almost useless in forecasting repeating global weather patterns. The movie segment above shows three of the four patterns with every other being more closely the same, (should be a better match between the end ones) than to the successive ones, much like meanders on a stream.

    The shapes and repeatability of the waveforms varies from region to region due to the standing wave influences of the North/South mountain ranges, Andes, Urals, Rockies, and the large block of the Himalayas cause disruptions of the laminar zonal flow down stream East, but the four folded pattern shift is also seen in all zones, most pronounced just East of the blocking mountains of interest.

    I have not heard before of the single daily tide at the poles, I can offer no answer to this question.

    The new article on the Mexico earth quake today the 20th is more in line with planetary studies I was working on 20 years ago before I found a large data base for USA COOP observations and I got totally distracted into looking at the weather effects, as I thought a good long range weather forecast had much more promise for helping all of humanity feed and shelter themselves.

    But what I was finding then is the perigee/apogee cycles and the declinational tides were key to pinpointing latitude of expected quake production, with surges in larger quake production with in 30 degrees of a heliocentric conjunction with one or more of the outer planets. All of that data and results, are locked up in an old Mac, (backed up on a shoe box full of 3.5 inch floppies, some HD, most not) as I haven’t turned it on for 15+ years now.

    QBO period is IMO due to the shift in the interference between the daily solar tides, lunar phase, and declinational tidal patterns acting on the body of the Pacific ocean surface in the lee of the Himalayas, which allows the tidal effects to build cumulative and destructive interactive trade wind and zonal wind flows, resulting in the ENSO effects and the Madden Julian oscillation being just named subsections of the total lunar tidal effects, modulated by the other planets gravitational and electromagnetic effects, that act to hide the clear pattern that would be seen with out their confounding influences.

    [Sorry for the slow response, checking new Austrailan maps I just got the data tabled and CSV files pulled for the four cycles and the composites and am proofing the data base and testing patterns of weather interactions I have not seen before, getting ready for the addition of more forecast areas to test my hypothesis on, not been checking up on other threads much the past week.] Richard

  19. Richard Holle says:
    April 13, 2012 at 1:06 pm

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/01/tornado-outbreak-tracking/#comment-909920

    Seems to still be as valid now as then…
    Richard Holle says:
    March 1, 2012 at 6:47 pm

    Once again the Lunar declinational tidal effect is responsible but goes unmentioned, The moon was maximum North declination on the 1st of March, the solar declination seasonal tide is incoming from the South adding to the effect and making the resultant tropical air mass surge two days sooner than the usual, peak production on the day of Maximum North lunar declination and three days after.

    I have had daily forecast maps for this expected precipitation posted for 51 months now;

    http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx

    Details on how it works are posted on the site, in the blog/research section.

    You can watch the incoming lunar tidal bulge sweep in from the Southwest in their short movie, and the back side more polar air mass brings in the negative static/ionic charges that gave added power to the temperature front to drive the condensation high enough to generate the tornadoes.

    Over the next three days as the fetch of moisture slides East across Texas into the Gulf states, and the moon starts to head South again, Just as we are having a heliocentric conjunction with Mars on the 3rd, this is very likely to bring on another round of tornadoes.(they got that part right anyway) see my maps for these days as well.

    Last year the big outbreak was enhanced by the heliocentric conjunction with Saturn, on the 3rd of April, which will be occurring on the 15th of April this year, so you can expect more outbreaks to occur from the 4-10-2012 Maximum South lunar declination and four day after window, another much larger 2 or 3 day burst as the moon crosses the equator on 4-17-2012. Then the heavy action through the end of the month of April, ending in last hurrah of big snows into the first week of May. Appalachian Ice storm seems to be on the 3rd through 5th of May, buy your replacement power poles early.

  20. CSV files for the composite map data from February through July 2012;

    http://www.aerology.com/Feb2012-Jul31.rar

  21. Over in suggestions;
    Ninderthana says:
    May 12, 2012 at 3:45 pm (Edit)

    “”I think that you might be missing a very important paper here:

    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011JD016598.shtml

    Monthly lunar declination extremes’ influence on tropospheric circulation patterns

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 116, D23121, 5 PP., 2011

    Short-term tidal variations occurring every 27.3 days from southern (negative) to northern (positive) maximum lunar declinations (MLDs), and back to southern declination of the moon have been overlooked in weather studies. These short-term MLD variations’ significance is that when lunar declination is greatest, tidal forces operating on the high latitudes of both hemispheres are maximized. We find that such tidal forces deform the high latitude Rossby longwaves. Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set, we identify that the 27.3 day MLD cycle’s influence on circulation is greatest in the upper troposphere of both hemispheres’ high latitudes. The effect is distinctly regional with high impact over central North America and the British Isles. Through this lunar variation, midlatitude weather forecasting for two-week forecast periods may be significantly improved.””

    I have been in contact with the author of this paper;
    I would be happy to discuss and possible collaborate on lunar declination related climate stimuli.

    If you haven’t been able to obtain the article in its entirety, I have attached a pdf.

    I am currently working on my Ph.D at ASU working with Dr. Cerveny and occasionally with Dr. Balling. My dissertation’s topic is concerned with solar variation and its different avenues of interaction with the climate system.

    The article was a re-imagining of my Master’s research examination, which looked at Lunar declination vs. Phoenix’s climate. Its findings convinced us to look at a larger data-set, the NCEP Reanalysis.

    I am currently teaching a few Labs this semester at ASU. They conclude at the end of the month. I should be around for most of the summer for a meeting.
    Otherwise, please email me with ideas, questions, interesting articles or anything else for that matter. Let me know how I can be of help.

    Dan Krahenbuhl
    School of Geographic Sciences and Urban Planning
    Arizona State University

  22. I have a staging site up for the reviewing of problems before going live with the new site revisions, latest note from developer “BTW, you are generated through 9/1 now, so it is looking like almost 2 months per day in processing. So around 9-10 days to finish out the 2 years of maps. I will spin up a spare laptop tonight to help with some of the later maps that aren’t already queued up on the desktop.”

    http://staging.aerology.com/

    Take a look and any comments on needed improvements will be considered, but is fairly much cast in stone on the basics, detailed local forecasts will be added later when software can be located for postal codes for Canadian and Australian locations. Dual sae and metric scales will be added to the precips when ready.

  23. Web site just went live on the updated maps and expanded areas, there are no local area forecasts yet they will be added as soon as the site gets moved to a better hosting server, that can handle twice the map load than the current server can. In about two weeks or less, the staging site is off line now.

  24. As the discovery process and correction of undetected errors is progressing, there will be improvements to what you see today… The auto griding software chose 20 degree search radii for the nearest neighbor selection process instead of the 5 degree I asked for, as a result the definition is smoothed about three times more than I wanted, losing much of the temperature UHI detail I wanted to show and washing out the precipitation details, spreading lower amounts way out from the area rain or snow fell (especially in Australia) and lost the higher amounts completely, so it looks like they never get any significant amount of rain any where.

    This will all be rectified when I am moved onto a larger server with 16Tbt HD and 96gig of ram, we will rerun the generation of the maps from the same csv data files, and overwrite these maps with the more detailed ones with higher contrast features, in about a week or two.

    At that time we will be returning the local map features currently withheld due to lack of server space.

  25. Forecastwatch service has basically shown that the accuracy is ~50% lower than the 1 to 3 day forecasts by the NWS but closer to their 3 to 5 day out forecasts. For the past 7 months the Aerology.com forecast has been with in 3 degrees ~23% of the time both highs and lows for the days. Compared to the average of other forecasters (1 to 3 day forecast hit rate with in 3 degrees) of ~48% to 58% with them changing leaders almost every month.

    Eric compares ~875 GHCN (city/airport) stations with my data for the same stations to get his results, so is testing 1 out of 19 sites I use (total ~17,080). Most of the sites I use that he does not are rural, ag stations, or coop elevators, farm implement dealers, etc. so the results that my forecasts run on average ~-3.25 degrees F bias off from the current cycle seems to be UHI effects. With the increase in definition (when the corrected maps get posted) you can see areas of heat islands that may be due to natural topography, which the original inhabitants took advantage of, and the incoming settlers found to their liking as well.

    I think it is highly likely that areas that were naturally sheltered had their own HI effects and people settled these areas first, as they expanded into the modern cities (with preference for traffic access, and steady water supply), you will continue to see UHI effects in these same areas. I think there was a predisposition for Heat Island effects in the areas where they are seen today, so man has only enhanced it, not made it from scratch. There are lots of urban areas seen in these maps with lower temps in parts of the outer areas around Midwestern cities, like St. Louis, due to wide scale landscaping of the out lying neighborhoods, compared to current or former farm ground, but still have UHI effects in the downtown areas.

  26. Moved onto the commercially hosted server yesterday DNS transfer to new location still fu*ked up or lagged out at this time only the research.aerology.com blog section is active at this time (did not have it hosted on the old or on the new server).

    When I get access to the new server we will be running tests with 6 degree, 7 degree, and 8 degree nearest neighbor search radii for best fit showing most area coverage with highest resolution. it is a trade off between smearing data clear across 20 degrees or 1200 miles (like GISS does it in the Arctic but infilling all areas), or showing higher resolution clearly demarcated local details of greater density, and loosing (the grid sample areas each 3 miles square) areas not with in X ,6,7,or 8, degrees (which ever I decide to go with that is most useful) of three reporting stations, to get a triangulation plotting of contour that is valid.

    This is almost the same problem the ACORN data set in Australia ends up with homogenizing the nearest 40 stations to get “corrected adjusted data”, which ends up raising the average of the total adjusted stations because all of the cold areas from the Alps in the South East get washed out on the station homo level. Will show the changes in the data base as the process of homogenization of the real data started as soon as I can get the server running on track and start pulling out maps for separate dates over long periods to make into comparison movies.

  27. At this time the new server is on line and for a brief period of time [maybe a couple of days] (until we figure out the optimal search radius and reload the maps with the improved series.) Some sample maps with a 5 degree search radius for North America and a 2 degree search radius for Australia are posted for the dates starting on http://www.aerology.com/Home/Index?location=Australia&mapType=Tmin&date=3/9/2014, they are at 20 degree search radius prior to this date.

    On the 10 and 11th both are shown at 6 degree search radius http://www.aerology.com/Home/Index?location=Australia&mapType=Tmin&date=3/11/2014 . Then they continue on at 2 degrees for Aus and 5 for N A. In case you are interested in how it affects the data smoothing, smearing of the temps, precips etc.

  28. The trials for the search radius for use were completed with the dates for 6 degrees March 10-15 2014,
    7 degrees March 16-20 2014, 8 degrees March 21-25 2014, and 9 degrees March 26-30 2014.

    I will be going with a search radius of 8 degrees, so we will be reloading all the maps on the site overwriting those on line today with the new ones, as they are generated from the same csv files, same data sets, with the new gsb file overlay.

  29. adolfogiurfa says:

    What is it happening in front of NY & Canada?:

  30. There is a calm spot there that is allowing the sea surface to warm by virtue of not being cooled by winds, it has been sluggish in moving as the Jupiter enhancement of the lunar atmospheric tidal bulge has been building up to the 3rd today but will be flushed out of the area as the effect sweeps through this week, can be seen here at this time;

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+50+-update+3600

    You can still see the cold streak from Sandy along the eastern sea board maintained by the Eastern Canadian cold air flow out of the Hudson Bay area passing through.

  31. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Richard: It is good to learn something new. Thanks!

  32. RichardLH says:

    @Richard.

    Do you have a reference for the gravitation field modulation and distribution here on Earth from the Sun and Moon (over time)?

    As a vertical and horizontal change plot. i.e. Tidal forces (in G) both lateral and vertical on a Mollweide projection or a true globe.

    This is, I believe, an important inter body force for which I am unable to find good references.

  33. Now uploading more maps to the website, from the 1st of May 2014 through the end of 2019 when the process is complete, up to November 20th 2014, or so right now.
    Not seeing any up coming mega drought in Australia yet.

  34. Empar Landete says:

    Hola Richard, es interesante lo que cuenta..
    He estado realizando investigaciones entre las declinaciones de la Luna y el ENSO , desde el año 1542 hasta 2013 , y obtenido como resultado que cuando la Luna llega en su ciclo de 18.6 años a Mínima Declinación -18º ,+18º , el ENSO en el Pacífico Central es NEUTRO … y cuando llega a Máxima declinación – 28º , +28 º tenemos NIÑO .

    ¿Como cree usted que la declinación lunar puede influir en el movimiento de estas masas de agua que interactúan con la atmósfera….para producir este patrón climático ??

    un saludo Empar

  35. empar landete says:

    Pregunta de Hans : También estaría muy interesado en qué período se considera ser el período QBO medio correcto QBO y cómo se relaciona los cuerpos celestes que considera vitales para su creación?

    He realizado algunas investigaciones con periodos sinusuales de algunos planetas y no le he hallado correlación con la QBO .

    Pero con los ciclos de las declinaciones Lunares si que he encontrado correlación .. analizando los cambios de vientos estratosféricos de la QBO en fase Oeste y fase Este, he podido comprobar que desde el año 1950 hasta ahora , julio del año 2014 , las máximas declinaciones lunares( -28º ,+28) y los mínimos de declinaciones lunares (-18º y +18º) siempre se producen con la QBO en fase Oeste, menos en el máximo de declinación lunar de septiembre del año 1950 , que el cambio de fase a oeste fue 7 meses después del máximo lunar.

    Veremos que ocurre en el mes de marzo del año 2015 que se produce el siguente mímino de declinación de la Luna, si continuamos en fase QBO del Oeste.

  36. tallbloke says:

    Just posted (In Spanish) on Richard Holle’s page:

    Asked by Hans: I would also be very interested in what period is considered to be the average QBO QBO period correct and how the heavenly bodies it considers vital to its creation is related?

    I have done some research with sinusuales periods of some planets and I have found no correlation with the QBO.

    But with the cycles of the lunar declinations if I found correlation .. analyzing changes in stratospheric winds QBO in west phase and this phase, I have seen that since 1950 until now, July 2014, peak declines moles (-28 º, +28) and minimum lunar declinations (-18 º to +18 º) always occur in the QBO west phase minus the maximum lunar declination September 1950, the phase shift west was 7 months after the lunar maximum.

    We’ll see what happens in March 2015 that the NEXT mimino declination of the Moon occurs, if we continue on the west QBO phase.

  37. In the NH summer of 2000 I spent several months working with an Australian Astro-meteorologist Jennifer Lawson author of a book “Countdown to Cataclysm, Violent Weather Predictions 2000 – 2001″. ISBN 1-56718-414-6

    We looked at the lunar phases and declinational angles in regard to ENSO indices, to see which had the most pronounced effects, what we found was about the same as noted above in levels of el nino activity, mostly neutral at minimum declination angles, more enhanced but shorter spikier, activity associated with drought periods in Australia when the lunar declination was about the same as the apparent solar declination 22 degrees to 24 degrees. With the periods of most active weather, most rapid meridional flow surges, at the time of year when the solar and lunar declination at culmination were acting in tandem.

    This was seen in tornado production and hurricane numbers and intensity increases, most enhanced for tornadoes (three days either side, centered) when there was a concurrent outer planetary heliocentric conjunction. And due to ion charging effects of the outer planetary conjunctions a decrease in Hurricane activity intensity the week before a conjunction and a rapid reactivation about 5 to 7 days after the outer planet heliocentric conjunction.

    There was seen in the historical data increases in drought conditions in Australia, and longer lived EL Nino effects at lunar maximum declination of around 27 to 28 degrees, the symotainious Heliocentric conjunctions of Neptune with Uranus in the NH summer months in 1993 and the slow passing speeds kept them close together through the lunar declination maximum angle culmination in 2005, before it started to decrease.

    I think it was the increased summer NH magnetically driven (as a result of most of the outer planets were being passed by the earth in the NH summers) solar wind ion scavenging of the upper troposphere through the 1982 to 1998 period that let more of the solar output reach the seas to effect the GW that we saw for that period, and the massive hurricane outbreak in 2005 was the result of the lunar declination going past peak, as Neptune and Uranus was shifting into the months of August/September, so the result was an outpouring of the extra heat in the oceans as the ion content of the tropical troposphere was decreasing from its high concentration of cat+ ions into the rest of the atmospheric tidal bulges, with outpouring of the polar air masses (carrying the excess -ions) that made the discharge of the earth’s global circuit through the precipitation of the charge carrying water vapor/clouds.

    The great maximum EL NINO in IIRC 1998 was given additional power and duration by the heliocentric conjunction of earth with Mars on the 17th of March 1997, Jupiter with Uranus on the 27th of March, (setting up the spring tornadoes), then Earth with Neptune on the 21st of July, Uranus on the 29th of July, Earth with Jupiter on the 9th of August, then a resumption of hurricane activity until the earth Saturn helio-conjunction 10th of October 1997. Then in 1998 the well started global oscillation in the atmosphere got another boost with the heliocentric conjunctions of earth with Neptune on 23rd of July, Uranus on the 3rd of August, Jupiter on the 16th of September, and Saturn on the 23rd of October 1998.

    After these big surges in global circulation it has calmed down consistently, but with the major storms introduced from the outer planetary conjunctions moving into the fall and winter months coinciding with the large snow storms in the NE USA, Europe, China, and Mongolia of late, and are directly responsible for the “global pause” the same as they were responsible for the “global warming” and as they continue to spread throughout the year we will see “normal weather across most of the globe with low levels of tornadoes and Hurricanes, until the lunar declination increases up close to 21-22 degrees at culmination, then the tornado activity will resume.

    I had not been aware of the East/West trends in the trades until now and I will watch it with abated breath, thanks for your comments.
    Richard Holle

  38. I had also done some analysis of the production of the famous “Morning Glory Waves” found in Australia in the SH spring, prized by sail plane enthusiasts, for the hundreds of miles they can on the crest of these global circulation lunar/solar tidal waves in the atmosphere. What I found is they form when the lunar and solar declination is close to the same within 2 degrees around NH fall equinox.
    By plotting the past episodes of logged good waves for gliding, I found that the best waves occurred when the solar/lunar declination was the closest to the same, with fair days on either side, or fairly good days on either side if none of the dates were nicely centered.

    http://dropbears.com/m/morning_glory/articles.htm

    http://dropbears.com/m/morning_glory/aerology.htm

  39. tallbloke says:

    This is fascinating Richard, I’ll try to find time to make an article about this.

  40. empar landete says:

    Hello Richard !
    very interesting comments on the conjunctions of Neptune, Uranus, Mars, Jupiter to Earth, but the Earth throughout the year in its orbit around the Sun, performs these heliocentric conjunctions contodos these outer planets and the inner, and climate do not always behave the same.

    And this may be due to the positions of the outer planets from the Sun, ie, the distance east of the Sun, if they are 180 °, 90 °, 120 ° or by the sun, whereupon the sun have to do more or less force balancing on its center of mass. Besides taking into account solar stage that is the sun, if it is under solar maximum, medium or solar solar minimum. This is important for me, as it will give a different hue to the weather, according to the intensity of solar radiation we receive on Earth. According enter more or fewer cosmic rays that are more or less condensation nuclei.

    I have also noticed that you have in mind at the time of year when these conjunctions of major planets with Earth occur, but I do my astrometeorológicas investigations, according to the positions of these planets in the Sun’s entrance in Aries, Cancer, Libra and Capricorn. And of course all the moons that occur throughout the year, and lunar declinations of course, for my weather forecasts in Spain, which is complicated by the topography of the Iberian Peninsula, as our country is quite hilly .

    So I was inclined to look first as we can influence the lunar declines in our atmosphere and our oceans, and this led me to the results I mentioned it in the previous post, when the moon reaches its minimum declination 18 °, in Central Pacific do not have ENSO CHILD, the phase will be next March 2015 will ENSO NEUTRAL (when the Moon will reach its minimum declination, having another low decline in September 2015) and the CHILD so strong who predicted the “scientists” in the spring of this year, it will not be possible for this phase of the Moon, is also a cHILD that starts in summer and ends at the latest in February 2015, just over 6 or 7 months old, it can not be strong, do not have time to mature.

    Besides the QBO phase is now in this, when we reach the minimum declination of the Moon in March 2015, will be changed to stage West before because míminas declines occur in the QBO west phase, according to my research. And the West will stage a strong stratospheric winds change in the Central Pacific.

    It is a great pleasure for me to discuss these issues lunar declinations and their influences on the atmosphere with you.

    I hope you understand the translation, my English is not very good.

    one Empar greeting.

  41. Thank you for your interest in my forecast method, all of my references are for the days past archives data sorted by 6558 day long periods to make four cycles of this pattern. The data I use to assemble the maps found on my site aerology.com is tabled so that there are four grids made and combined to make the composite maps you see.

    I have as yet been unable to make an active program to adjust the patterns of the past cycles combined, to account for the heliocentric conjunctions of the outer planets solar wind induced electromagnetic effects. I am currently working on finding algorithms from past weather induced effects of the heliocentric conjunctions with the outer planets, so I can adjust the basic 6558 day cyclic pattern composite to reflect the usual changes/departures (from the average pattern) in temperature and precipitation regional patterns that are characteristic for the equivalent seasonal occurrence. As well as the four pole 27.3 cyclic patterns that rotate with each 27.3 day period so that they arrive back at the same relative positions on the surface weather patterns generated by the topography, that forms the aerological result in the standing patterns in the meridional flows of the lunar declinational atmospheric tidal waves that are the jet streams, and the large cyclonic weather patterns.

    The link to the basic assumptions I have made and the detailed process I use to generate the forecast maps is; http://research.aerology.com/aerology-analog-weather-forecasting-method/
    browse the other page in this research section (100+ posts) for the details you are seeking to answer the questions you are asking.

    I have put together the research pages section as if it were a PHD thesis rough draft to be later updated, combined with additional ongoing research I am doing, into the effects of the modulation of the basic patterns found in the 6558 day long period with the outer planet interactions.

    There are several post on Tallbloke’s Talkshop here that cover the work of the S S Barycenter modulation of the solar activity and weather influences as well as climate long term effects. By several other authors that have looked at these problems from other angles, and have better answers on the climatic effects than I currently have posted, but in the long fun I will be adding active links to their posts with additional comments by me as to how it all fits together IMHO.

  42. empar landete says:

    Hi Richard, I have some doubts about its calculation as the moon pulls the aerial masses?

    When the moon has north declination, southwesterly winds will attract the Northwestern and North-South over where it culminates Earth?

    And on the left side to the position of the moon will wind component ‘This Northeast and Southeast?

    Is stronger its pull on the atmosphere, the Coriolis force itself?

    I would like to clarify these points …

    one Empar greeting.

  43. The Coriolis force is itself the product of the differential rotational speed (relative to the surface) of the air masses from different latitudes moving either North or South, the deflection of equatorial air masses moving poleward to form a solar, and/or lunar tidal bulge, has a faster rotational speed than the more poleward surface and over shoots the straight poleward line in an Easterly direction.
    The Coriolis “effect” is part and parcel of the declinational tidal bulge process, not separate, nor opposing, but the result of the movement from the production of the bulge itself.

    The polar air masses that form the dryer colder side of the frontal boundaries that form in both North and South hemispheres are deflected from their straight equator ward movement by being slower moving rotationally than the more equatorial terrain they are crossing and apart from aerological forcings of North/South ridges of mountainous terrain (the Andes, Rockies, Urals, and smaller chains of mountains) are deflected West as the surface speeds East ahead of them.

    The patterns of topographic ridges and plains force/allow the cyclonic turbulence that are the major storm fronts to repeat with similar patterns under similar tidal conditions, which is the basis of my forecasting method. Analogs of data from 4 different days of most similar tidal forcings (every 6558 days, from the past four cycles), are combined to form the composite maps, samples of the conditions from an example selected set of four dates and composites can be viewed at the top of this page.

    In the Eastern lee side of N/S mountain chains and alpine E/W aerological blocking areas The Himalayas being the largest, eddy turbulence is enhanced giving rise to regional characteristic weather patterns, the production of tornadoes in the Mid-Western USA “Tornado Alley”, the “North Easters” of the New England coastal areas, the aerobatic heating of the “Chinook winds” known by other names in other locations, are prime examples of these periodic lunar tidal effects, and as such are forecast-able.

    The Gobi Desert on the northern side of the flow around the Himalayas, and the Indian/Asian Monsoon flows on the Southern side are the result of the topographical blocking. The Russian heat waves that occur almost simultaneously, with massive rain falls and severe flooding in Pakistan/India, are the result of solar/lunar declinational angle at culmination standing wave patterns and you will find similar periodicities relative to the effects you see with the Trade winds, and El Nino effects, but I think you MAY find it occurs at a different phase in the 18.6 year cycles. I have not the global data base I would need to look at the relationships out side of the areas I have fine resolution daily data for, (Canada, USA, and Australia).

    I have spent over $40,000.00 of my own money (no grants or subsidies, although I have received a one time gift of $500.00, from a happy user of my site) in the pursuit of detailed data, study of the atmospheric tidal effects, and program development to present the automated generated maps posted on my site. I am retired now and have little saving left to work with, progress is slow, but making progress none the less.

  44. empar landete says:

    Richard thanks for your reply, but my question was whether the moon is in north declination, attract winds south, southwest, southeast toward the Earth, where culminates the moon?

    Because if so defies the theory of fluid dynamics.

    I understand the theory of Coriolis, I meteorologica mechanics works.
    If I am investigating the moon and its influence on the atmosphere, it is because there are many weather patterns, meteorology and the science of climatology occur not know how … and I think that the Moon has much to say about it.

    The moon is the most overlooked.

    one Empar greeting

  45. Because the pressure of the solar wind compresses the height of the ionosphere and that force is felt all the way to the ground when overhead of a point on the surface, the lifting effects of the moons tidal pull is modulated by the daily solar wind pressure. At moon rise the tidal force is almost all of the horizontal component, as it is at sunrise for the solar tidal forces, the dramatic effects of the height of the “E layer” have been studied, in one such study it was found that in the shadow of a total solar eclipse, when the local pressure of the solar wind was blocked by the moon the height of the ionosphere rebounded to the “normal night time height”.

    There for the phase relationships of the sun/moon alter and modulate these effects as well as the declinations of both the sun and moon do. As the earth rotates faster than the moon orbits, and as the declinational cycle is almost as long a period as the phase shifts, the effects seen on the surface in the resultant lifting, when the moon is above, horizontal shifting forces at rise and setting times of both, and the compression of the solar wind onto the atmosphere, makes for a very complex set of balancing forces for a Numerical weather or climate model to simulate.

    As the current knowledge in the field of Meteorological study is now only starting to look at ionic charges on aerosols, with out acknowledging the greater standing static field on the earth, and its interaction with the solar wind, how can they know what is going on in the interactions of the magnetosphere, ionosphere, solar wind surges from flares and CME’S with the resultant modulation of the greater global electrical circuit, that changes dramatically in short time spans?

    They are just now looking at the magnetic interaction of the solar wind and magnetosphere with satellites, Ulysses was the start of the discovery, Themis is now in the second stage of operation with two of the satellites orbiting the moon, looking at the electromagnetic interaction of the solar wind and magnetosphere.

    http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/auroras-collide.html#.U_EucmPYAtU

    http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/main/index.html#.U_EvPmPYAtU

    They are collecting new forms of data and are again very surprised at what they are finding, as it is not what they expected, the results of the streaming input from the satellites is not yet in a form I can utilize, nor available to the general public. I have hope that some day someone will be able to connect all of the dots in the total process of energy transfer from the solar wind into the weather/climate system. But it will not happen as long as all of the major funding amounts are spent trying to con the world into not using fossil fuels, at the expense of the poor and indigenous peoples of the world.

    Some where in the future when the focus of research is for the understanding of the truth of how it all works, will be applied toward the good for all peoples, much progress will be made and the earth will be seen to bloom with fresh life and vitality, as the push for maximizing the photosynthetic potential of green plant cover. As the ratio of photosynthetic energy capture from sunlight to surface area increases, peace and prosperity will come to all. (If the corrupt power hungry governments and Malthusians don’t succeed in stopping it.)

  46. Empar Landete says:

    Thank you Richard, is very interesting your explanation.. .and very good links about the reconnection of solar and magnetospheric and plasmasphera.

    I will continue with my research, about the possible interaction of the Lunar variations and weather patterns. Because wait in the Sun with the Earth magnetic reconnections, and see how they influence climate, it takes time and lots of money… things that I have.

    Now when the Earth’s climate, begins to cool off a bit, and global warming is not expected, we will see where they get rats from scientists of the IPCC, to explain why it does not as much heat as they were saying…

    And Governments will realize the money they have wasted keeping their seats to these scientists not really investigating what was going on in the global climate… and which were only eating silly soup of subsidies.

    Thank you very much to devote part of your time to explain me my doubts.

    For now I hope that the child of the Central Pacific, paralyze in February of the year 2015, because in March we will have minimum lunar declination, 18 degrees, and so will I know if my research about weather patterns go in the right direction.

    a cordial greeting Empar

  47. Empar Landete says:

    The translator is horrible to express some phrases…

    Where it says I have money and time, I want to say: I have no money or time.

    that’s all… a greeting empar

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