Archive for the ‘Forecasting’ Category

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From RT.com

The UK risks sweeping electricity blackouts unless it increases the state’s capacity to balance infrequent supply from renewable energy sources, a prominent engineer who carried out government-funded research has warned.

While British authorities are under legal obligation to source almost a third of their electricity from renewable sources such as solar and wind by 2020, they require immediately deployable gas-fuelled power stations to cater for inevitable lulls in sun and wind energy output.

Hugh Sharman, a British engineering consultant, was commissioned to work on a government-sanctioned report examining how UK authorities could sustain the nation’s energy demands in an era of mandatory renewable energy use.

Tendered to the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) last year, the research went unpublished.

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imageThe Met Office has unveiled their latest update:

Even Newer Dynamics for General atmospheric modelling of the environment (ENDGame)

ENDGame is an evolution of the current dynamical core, the New Dynamics, and is based on a semi-implicit semi-lagrangain discretisation of the governing equations.

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Prolific solar-planetary scientist and long-time talkshop friend Nicola Scafetta has a new paper published in Physica A entitled ‘Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly. A reply to Gil-Alana et al. (2014)’ which comments on Gil-Alana et al 2014; a paper purporting to dismiss any correlation between solar activity and terrestrial surface temperature. Nicola gently points out the limitations of their methods and patiently explains how the astronomical-solar signal can be found in the data. Here is Figure 3 to whet your appetite:

 

scafetta-2014b-fig3

Fig. 3. (A) Annually solved HadCRUT3 global surface temperature record [34] from 1850 to 2013. (B) Power spectrum density functions calculated using the MEM method (using M = N/2 = 82) and the MTM periodogram f (p) [35,36]: the calculations were made with the SSA–MTM Toolkit. Several spectral peaks (e.g.: at about 9.1, 10.4, 20 and 60 yr) are statistically significant above the 95% confidence level, and their solar, lunar and astronomical origin is explained in the literature (e.g.: Scafetta [10,32,33,25]).

Nicola also provides plots of several of the various solar and temperature related indices and techniques for representing them over a wide range of timescales which clearly demonstrate the plain fact of the close coherence between the activity of our host star which supplies all our energy, and the fluctuations of the lovely moderate temperatures we live in on the surface of our planet.

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From the Guardian

Pipes and pylons operator says failure to invest more in local gas production would leave country 90% dependent on imports

The price of electricity could double over the next two decades, according to forecasts published on Thursday by the National Grid, the company responsible for keeping Britain’s lights on.

The current price of wholesale electricity is below £50 per megawatt hour but could soar to over £100 by 2035 under a “high case” example used in the Grid’s UK Future Energy Scenarios report.

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A few years ago, I started a wikipedia page on the Gore Effect; the uncanny phenomenon which unleashes snow, hail, torrential rain, icy winds and sleet on the venues where Al Gore is speaking about global warming. The instances are too numerous to list. My page got deleted within a few months by the usual suspects. But it was reborn when another wiki user put up a much more detailed and better referenced version, and I thought it unassailable. But no, the usual suspects are at it again:

gore-effect

Maybe big Al has been armtwisting Jimmy Wales with the promise of a big donation on condition it goes. Who knows.

Contributor ‘Aussie’ notes this morning that the Gore Effect continues undiminished:

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David Archibald’s prediction for global average temperature 2014-2025

David Archibald’s post at Quadrant.org.au has stirred some interesting debate here at the talkshop. David predicts an imminent and steep drop in regional temperatures as a result of the slowdown in solar activity seen since the descent of solar cycle 23 in 2003. It’s not the first time he has made such predictions. As Nick Stokes pointed out in discussion, Archibald told the Australian senate committee in 2009 that temperature was about to go down at a scary 0.2C per annum. It didn’t happen. But David says it’s different this time, because a decade has passed since solar cycle 23 dropped towards a long minimum, followed by the weak cycle 24 we are currently in. The decadal lag is implied by David Evan’s new hypothesis which identifies a ‘notch filter’ which points to a cycle-long lag between changes in solar activity and the effect becoming visible in the terrestrial response. David goes on to predict that due to Penn and Livingstone’s prediction of a very low sunspot number in cycle 25, we are headed for drastic cooling.

There are several points on which I disagree with David’s analysis, and I’ll cover them below the break.

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David Archibald has some form for making dire predictions of imminent global cooling. His latest, including a forecast he claims uses David Evans’ ‘Notch delay climate model’  has just been published online at Quadrant.org.au and makes scary reading. At one level, you could be forgiven for thinking that his doom laden prognosis is as alarmist as those of Al Gore or James Hansen. However, it behoves us to remember that unlike the global warming alarmist’s fear of frying, history backs up the existence and dire effects of sudden cooling events. Personally, I think the coming cooling is unlikely to be as sudden or deep as David fears, but I’ll leave my reasoning for that opinion for the comments section. Strap in and read on.

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Excerpts from: 

The edge of a cold, deep abyss?
David Archibald 25-6-2014

One of the best predictions of climate ever made (weighted for distance and accuracy) was by two Californian researchers, Leona Libby and Louis Pandolfi.  In 1979, they used tree ring data from redwoods in Kings Canyon to make a remarkably accurate forecast1.  From a Los Angeles Times interview of that year,

When she and Pandolfi project their curves into the future, they show lower average temperatures from now through the mid-1980s.  “Then,” Dr. Libby added, “we see a warming trend (by about a quarter of 1 degree Fahrenheit) globally to around the year 2000.  And then it will get really cold—if we believe our projections.  This has to be tested.” 

How cold? “Easily one or two degrees,” she replied, “and maybe even three or four degrees.”

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While browsing Ian Wilson’s excellent Astro-Climate Connection blog, I found a graphic showing the coincidence of El Nino with the alignment of the Lunar line of nodes (declination cycle) and line of apse (orbital precession), with the Sun. I’ve taken the liberty of adding my Solar – El Nino hypothesis to it: the proposal is that El Nino tends to be initiated as the cycle starts to decline steeply and initiated again at solar minimum as it ‘bottom’s out’. I’ll reproduce Ian’s accompanying text below the break but to get to the point, here’s  the result:

enso-lunisolar

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Storm clouds arriving [image credit: Wikipedia]

Storm clouds arriving
[image credit: Wikipedia]


A line from a GWPF report illustrates one of the many problems faced by the UN IPCC in its efforts to understand the world’s climate(s):
‘Facebook has over fifty times more lines of code than climate models.’

http://www.thegwpf.org/models-behaving-badly/

Having no way of verifying that, we’ll have to take their word for it, but it’s probably not that surprising. Facebook would be out of business if its code consistently failed to work as expected, but no such problem for climate models it seems.
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There is a new open access paper published in Environmental Research Letters by Yannick Peings and Gudrun Magnusdottir entitled ‘Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean’. It’s another blow to the ‘bad winter weather is caused by us wicked humans’ doom mongers such as Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo. 

Click for larger image

Click for larger image

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Guest post from Andrew McKillop

Death Cross Mix for European Energy : No Future
by Andrew McKillop 29-03-2014

EU-sinkingPlay With the Toy Until it Breaks
Commentators have begun to focus on the “moving average” of always-unrealistic energy policy and programs in the European Union, easily finding that they signal a “bearish outlook” for future energy supply in Europe – but certainly not for energy prices.  In fact not only the poster child victim of the EU’s mix and mingle of often-extreme policies – electricity, but also increasingly gas and then oil – faces a supply outlook that almost inevitably has to be down. This is despite, or because of, ever-rising energy prices, led by electricity price rises! Prices are driven up by a death cross convergence of political, economic, financial, technical and even cultural “life style” factors. In the poster child country for European “energy transition”, German household electricity prices are around 25 euro cents per kiloWatthour in early 2014, pricing their power at an oil equivalent (1600 kWh per barrel) of around $540 per barrel equivalent. Can we be surprised that German electricity consumption is falling?

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la-quake

From Buzzfeed

LOS ANGELES — A shallow magnitude-5.1 earthquake struck the Los Angeles area Friday night, causing minor damage and injuries, scattered power outages, and gas leaks.

The earthquake occurred at 9:09 p.m. at a depth of 4.6 miles and was centered near Brea in Orange County — about 20 miles southeast of downtown Los Angeles. It was immediately followed by dozens of aftershocks, including a 3.4 and 3.6 magnitude.

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ENSO: What chance a 2014 El Nino?

Posted: March 23, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in Forecasting, Natural Variation, weather

Here’s the BOM’s sub surface monitor output for the Pacific ocean:
14-02-sub_surf_mon

Here’s the WMO forecast:
Current Situation and Outlook
The tropical Pacific continues to be ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Model forecasts and expert opinion suggest that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the second quarter of 2014. Current model outlooks further suggest an enhanced possibility of the development of a weak El Niño around the middle of 2014, with approximately equal chances for neutral or weak El Niño. However, models tend to have reduced skill when forecasting through the March-May period. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other agencies will continue to monitor the conditions over the Pacific and assess the most likely state of the climate through the first half of 2014.

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Reblogged from Jaime Jessop’s nascent climatecontrarian site:

Climate Wars – CO2 vs. Solar in the Battle to Lay Claim to Jet Stream Anomalies
By Jaime Jessop – 23-2-2014
Mat Collins of Exeter University admitted to the world a week ago that the direct cause of the UK’s wet and windy winter was/is the North Atlantic Jet Stream. It has been directly responsible for the ‘conveyor belt’ of powerful storms which have hit the UK, one after another, in seemingly endless succession, since December 2013 all the way into February of this year. The rain precipitated by those storms has resulted in widespread river flooding.

In addition, a particularly deep depression which coincided with a very high tide on the 5th/6th December also resulted in fairly severe coastal flooding along eastern coastal areas. Nothing as bad as the devastating tidal surge of 1953 but that was more down to massively improved flood defences in the last 50 years. The Dec 2013 tidal surge was probably only a shade less menacing in terms of actual sea level rise than was the 1953 event. Severe gales and storm force winds have also driven huge waves over sea defences in Wales and the West Country, resulting in yet more localised flooding.

All this chaos due to the Jet Stream, due to the run of extreme weather caused by that Jet Stream. But, given the exhaustive news coverage and the opportunity for a propaganda coup, it was inevitable that the proponents of CO2 induced global warming would figure out some way to link in the storms with ‘climate change’ and, right on cue, up stepped Julia Slingo to claim that ‘all the evidence’ pointed to a link between the UK floods and ‘climate change’.

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tallbloke:

Ruth Dixon spots a curiously unreferenced assertion in the MET-O’s new report backing Dame Slingo’s reframing of the weather as climate.

Originally posted on My Garden Pond:

Update 11 Feb 2014: Met Office says Oh, you thought we meant from now? No, from 1990! See comment from Richard Betts, below and the updated Met Office report.

13 Feb: A further comment from Richard confirms that the Met Office projections for UK sea level rise are 5 to 7 cm between now and 2030.

This is an edited version of a comment I made on Bishop Hill on 9 Feb:

In February 2014 the Met Office and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) published a report called “The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK”. (pdf of original version here). The report makes an interesting prediction about sea level rise by 2030 on p.21 (the same figures are also given on p.2):

Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are…

View original 351 more words

Reposted from Notes on a Scandal Excellent analysis on Julia Slingo’s reframing of the relationship between ‘climate change’ and ‘weather’ by guest blogger Jaime Jessop.

floodsIt’s happened. The battle lines have finally been re-drawn. Global surface temperature rises (which have been inconveniently static for 17+ years) have been ditched by the warmists in favour of the new CAGW meme – extreme weather. The opportunities for making unfalsifiable claims are endlessly more expansive and the sheer headline-grabbing power of ‘big weather’ far exceeds that of mere ‘global warming’.

The remarkable UK Cyclonic Winter of 2013/14 – still ongoing as we speak – has afforded the warmist politicos an eagerly awaited unique opportunity to climb firmly aboard the extreme weather bandwagon and claim that it’s all down to CAGW branded ‘climate change’ (patent pending). Hence Dame Slingo of the UK Met Office now claiming definitively that ” “all the evidence” supported the theory that climate change had played a role” in the devastating West Country floods.

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John Christy has been interviewed by ‘Talking about the weather‘:

christyJohn Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama-Huntsville.John Christy is a climate scientist at the University of Alabama-Huntsville. Along with Roy Spencer, he developed the first satellite temperature record of the Earth. Skeptical about catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, he has been invited to speak before Congress several times. He is the director of the Earth System Science Center at UAH.

TATW: What would be the single piece of information that you would convey to people who have strong opinions about climate and little knowledge?

CHRISTY: A fundamental aspect of science is that when we scientifically understand a system, we are able to predict how the system evolves in time. The comparison of model output with observations indicates we have much less understanding than what is needed to predict it with any confidence. I certainly don’t see the predictive skill necessary for policy determination.

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josh-slingoClimate Change is a key factor in the storms that have battered parts of Britain this winter, according to the Met Office’s chief scientist, who also warned that the country should prepare itself for similar events in the future.

 

Dame Julia Slingo said while there was not yet “definitive proof”, “all the evidence” pointed to Climate Change, and suggested that detecting when and how storms develop would become increasingly important.

According to new analysis from the Met Office, persistent rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific triggered a global weather system that included the severe storms that have flooded thousands of homes in Britain, as well as the exceptionally cold weather in North America.

“In a nutshell, while there is no definitive answer for the current weather patterns that we have seen, all the evidence suggests that climate change has a role to play in it,” Dame Julia said.The “clustering and persistence” of storms that have hit the UK was extremely unusual, she added. “We have seen exceptional weather. It is consistent with what we might expect from climate change.”

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Around ten days ago I made an enquiry to Copernicus (the innovative science unpublishers) asking when they would be billing me for the order I made at the end of 2013. It turned out they had forgotten to do so, and they provided an invoice for a fresh order on Jan 27, 10 days after they axed the journal.

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Metdesk: Current weather in UK

Posted: February 5, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in Forecasting, Measurement, weather

Current image from metdesk.com You can follow their twitter feed @metdesk

5-2-14weather
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