Robert Dull: Has ‘Perfect Storms’ solved AD 536 mystery?

From the Chronicle Journal:

Victoria Ahearn, The Canadian PressFriday, April 5, 2013 – 06:00TORONTO – American paleoecologist Dr. Robert Dull believes he’s pretty much solved the mystery behind a catastrophic global climate change event from the sixth century.As the new History series “Perfect Storms” shows, Dull has found solid circumstantial evidence that an eruption at El Salvador’s Lake Ilopango volcano was the cause of the so-called Dust Veil of AD 356, when a thick dust and ash cloud over the Northern Hemisphere cooled parts of the Earth and led to millions of deaths.

Fracking: Is it safe and clean enough? – this NYT opinion piece thinks so.

Apart from a couple of gripes and moans about co2 from gas, this NYT article is a lot better than most of theirs concerning fossil fuels. Here’s the kicker; Susan Brantley is distinguished professor of geosciences and director of the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute – at Pennsylvania State University.

The Facts on Fracking
Susan Brantley and Anna Meyendorff

Some of the local effects of drilling and fracking have gotten a lot of press but caused few problems, while others are more serious. For example, of the tens of thousands of deep injection wells in use by the energy industry across the United States, only about eight locations have experienced injection-induced earthquakes, most too weak to feel and none causing significant damage.

The Pennsylvania experience with water contamination is also instructive. In Pennsylvania, shale gas is accessed at depths of thousands of feet while drinking water is extracted from depths of only hundreds of feet. Nowhere in the state have fracking compounds injected at depth been shown to contaminate drinking water.

Gabfest: Putting down the heretics Soon, Balliunas, Shaviv, Veizer

all.7z 1061565012

cc: ‘The Team’
date: Tue, 12 Aug 2003 11:21:57 -0400
from: Gabi Hegerl
subject: Re: POLL ON SOON-BALIUNAS
to: “Michael E. Mann” <mann@virginia.edu>, Tom Crowley

I have seen Balliunas give a talk quite a long while ago, unfortunately, I

cannot recall what the meeting was, it was some kind of global change meeting,

more than 5 years ago.

I do recall that I was thoroughly unimpressed though. There was not much real

exchange between her and the audience. I remember that Jerry North was there

also, because we exchanged amazement in differences in style of approach between the
detection side of work he and I presented, and her – well lets say

more-qualitative style…

Gabi

At 11:07 AM -0400 8/12/03, Michael E. Mann wrote:

Thanks Tom,
The impact ratings you provided seem to be on a different scale from the ones I’ve seen,
but the relative magnitudes and ordering appear about right (in the ratings I’ve seen,
CR comes in at 0.4!).

E.U. Supernanny will control Britain’s use of its Sovereign shale gas reserves

From the Guardian:

The chancellor, George Osborne, announced last week that the coalition would offer tax breaks to fracking firms, and intended to set up a new regulator for “unconventional gas”.

The energy secretary, Ed Davey, is shortly expected to lift restrictions on fracking at a site in Lancashire.

But Leinan, a member of the German SPD, spoke of the European parliament‘s growing concern over large-scale fracking, adding that it would pass new regulations to “manage, to discipline” the sector. He said: “There are basically only two countries where the government is behind using it. It is Poland and it is Great Britain, and Poland has not gone very fast. Then in Great Britain they give green light for industrial exploitation but they have to know what they are doing.

I don’t know if they can be so sure and clear about what they are doing.

He said.

Nils Axel Morner: Neotectonics and the recent ice ages

My thanks to Hans Jelbring, who has sent me a copy of a paper by Nils Axel Morner. The paper introduces the concept of ‘Neotectonics’ and defines the epoch as beginning around 3M years ago, when we entered the current run of glacial interglacial cycles. Nils proposes the hypothesis that movements of the tectonic plates, especially in the uplift of mountainous plateaux and the closing of the strait between South america and Antarctica, amplified the effects of Milankovitch orbital cycles and resulted in a fall in Earth’s average surface temperature. I’ve provided a few excerpts here, but be sure to download and read the whole paper, it reads easily and isn’t too long.

Neotectonics, the new global tectonic regime during the last 3 ma and the initiation of ice ages
NILS -AXEL MÖRNER

Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract
It recently became evident that the globe experienced a significantly changed tectonic
regiment from about 3.0 Ma onwards. This puts the term “neotectonics” in quite a new
perspective. We are now able to identify the last 3 Ma as characterized by generally
intensified tectonic activity. This period may hence be looked upon as a special
“neotectonic period”. Large areas were rapidly uplifted between 3.0 and 2.5 Ma. This led
to a seemingly more general lowering of the ocean floor due to an adjustment of the
geoid-oceanoid level. The tectonic reorganization 3.0-2.5 Ma ago led to the initiation of
global ice ages, the first one of which occurred at about 2.3 Ma.

UK Shale: could be 17 times bigger than remaining North Sea reserves

From the Times, via GWPF:

IT’S HUMONGOUS: UK SHALE GAS DEPOSIT 50% BIGGER THAN THOUGHT
Tim Webb, The Times
Date: 08/12/12

The shale gas deposit around Blackpool is 50 per cent bigger than previously estimated, The Times has learnt. The news will put more pressure on ministers who are due to lift the ban on extraction as early as next week, to support what could prove to be a gas bonanza for Britain.

Cuadrilla Resources, the exploration company backed by Lord Browne of Madingley, the former boss of BP, hit the headlines after it set off dozens of small earth tremors around Blackpool, resulting in fracking being suspended.

Fracking involves blasting water and sand at high pressure into rock to release gas, a process that environmentalists fear could pollute aquifers used to supply drinking water.

The British Geological Survey (BGS) is carrying out an independent analysis of shale gas reserves which it plans to publish in the new year. It is understood that the BGS will estimate that the 1,000 square kilometres covered by the Bowland Basin to the east of Blackpool contains 300 trillion cubic feet of gas, equivalent to 17 times the remaining known reserves in the North Sea.

Breaking: Osborne gives Amber light for UK fracking

Dec 5 (Reuters)

- Britain on Wednesday launched a government office for shale gas to simplify regulation of the unconventional gas sector more than one year after it temporarily banned shale gas fracking for environmental reasons.

 

Finance minister George Osborne also confirmed his announcement made two month ago to hold public consultations on tax breaks for shale gas exploration.

Brent Walker: Extra Terrestrial Influences on Natures Risks

My thanks to Doug Cotton, who has flagged up this paper offering a good overview of the Earth’s solar system environment, and how it is affected by it. Brent Walker is an actuary who is interested in assessing risk posed by nature. He has pulled together much f the material which interests us here at the talkshop into a single, very readable paper, which I recommend. Here’s one of the key figures from the text, to whet the appetite:

The first graph above shows the global mean thermosphere density at 400 km altitude, obtained from satellite orbital parameters over four solar cycles. Blue: 81-day centered running mean. Black: annual average. Green dotted lines: envelope of expected decrease due to increasing CO2 levels, in the range of 2% to 5% per decade, starting with the 1976 annual average. This effectively rules out changing levels of carbon dioxide as the cause of the decrease in temperature recently witnessed.

The second graph shows the Global mean thermosphere density annual average plotted as a function of the 26-34 nm solar EUV irradiance annual average measured by the SEM for the ascending (red) and descending (blue) phases of solar cycle 23. Both of these graphs were obtained from the paper: Solomon et al “Anomalously low solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance and thermosphere density during solar minimum”. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, 2010

Why is the troposphere 8km higher at the equator than the poles?

This is an important question, because it is thought to be due to temperature, convection and radiative physics. But what about other possible factors? I’ve started gathering a list and some notes for discussion on the excellent and still very active Clive Best lapse rate thread. Regulars know that when a post title contain a question mark, there are going to be demands for help… TB

Dr Tim Ball has a good recent article here, which contains some useful diagrams, such as this one:

 

Tim says:

Tropopause height at the Poles varies between 7 km in winter and 10 km in summer, at the Equator the range is 17 to 18 km. The difference in seasonal range is because of the difference in seasonal temperature range. How do you build even those simple dynamics into a computer model?

Answer: the best way to make a start is to quantify the various effects which contribute to the height difference in the polar and equatorial tropopause, using the clues offered by seasonal variation as a guide.

Steve McIntyre in London Aug 2012

Steve: -

“I’m speaking in London on August 16:

When: Thursday, 16 August 2012, 3pm
Where: Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining, 1 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5DB

The talk is public. It is hosted by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. I’m going to be talking about events over the past year, but will mostly be talking about the increased emphasis by the climate “community” on Climate Extremes, paying particular attention to the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX) published in March, which was the basis of WG2 Co-Chair Christopher Field’s recent testimony to Congress.”

http://climateaudit.org/2012/08/10/london-august-16/