Earlier today, I spotted the wailing and gnashing of teeth beginning over the fact that the airborne fraction of co2 is about to pass 400 parts per million – 0.04% of the atmosphere. Peter Gleick was one of the protagonists.
So I tweeted this response:
As the northern melt and polar bear worrying season gets underway, a timely reminder of the repetitive nature of ‘unprecedented’ climate happenings. H/T ‘IluvCO2′
NORTH POLE MELTING. CHANGE OF CLIMATE. MANY GLACIERS VANISHED.
Northern Star (Lismore, NSW : 1876 – 1954) Thursday 5 April 1923
Is the North Pole going to melt entirely? Are the Arctic regions warming up with prospect of a great climatic change in that part of the world? Science is asking these questions (says “Popular Science Siftings”). Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas around Spitsbergen and the Eastern Arctic all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, with hitherto unheard-of high temperatures on that part of the earth’s surface. Observations to that effect have covered the last five years during which the warmth has been steadily increasing. In August the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitsbergen and Bear Island under the leadership of Dr. Adolf Hoel, professor of geology in the University of Christiania, the object in view being to survey and chart areas productive of coal and other minerals.
Following a long period of reflection, or brooding, or something, Post-Normal-Times blogger and environment consultant Sylvia Tognetti has a new year’s resolution to go on the offensive against Post-Normal-Science originator and veteran philosopher of science Jerry Ravetz. Sylvia seems to have come to a judgement that Jerry has abandoned the principles of PNS and ‘gone over to the wrong side’ as a result of being ‘turned’ by the arguments of ‘cranks’, including Judy Curry, and me. :)
Jerry wrote a letter to Sylvia attempting to mark out his position, but this seems not to have gone down too well. At least she’s stopped calling us ‘deniers’ after the quiet word I had on her site two years ago this coming week. But she obviously feels that the right way to balance her ‘concession’ on the ‘denier’ labelling issue is by using the ‘crank’ label 10 times in a few paragraphs, while berating Jerry for pointing out the negative consequences of alarmist claims made 12 years ago. It’s a bit of a rant, but not bad as spectator sport. The assembled warmista are trying to damn Ravetz by linking to one of his WUWT articles. For the wider world, the article he co-wrote with Mike Hulme post-climategate is far more important:
‘Show Your Working’: What ‘ClimateGate’ means
(more…)
Excerpt from an article by London Mayor Boris Johnson on the Telegraph website:
It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age
Something is up with our winter weather. Could it be the Sun is having a slow patch?
Boris Johnson 20-1-2013
I remember snow that used to come and settle for just long enough for a single decent snowball fight before turning to slush; I don’t remember winters like this. Two days ago I was cycling through Trafalgar Square and saw icicles on the traffic lights; and though I am sure plenty of readers will say I am just unobservant, I don’t think I have seen that before. I am all for theories about climate change, and would not for a moment dispute the wisdom or good intentions of the vast majority of scientists.
But I am also an empiricist; and I observe that something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it “warming” is obviously to strain the language. I see from the BBC website that there are scientists who say that “global warming” is indeed the cause of the cold and snowy winters we seem to be having. A team of Americans and Chinese experts have postulated that the melting of the Arctic ice means that the whole North Atlantic is being chilled as the floes start to break off — like a Martini refrigerated by ice cubes.
The Rt. Hon. David Cameron MP
Prime Minister
10 Downing Street
London SW1A 2AA
18th January 2013
AN OPEN LETTER TO THE PRIME MINISTER ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY POLICIES
Dear Prime Minister,
Like you I read PPE at Oxford and I was lucky enough to be taught Economics by Professor Wilfred Beckerman. He has an interest in the economics of environmentalism, having worked in that field with the World Bank in the 1960s, advised the Labour Party on it and he was a member of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution from 1970 to 1973. He wrote an excellent book in 1974 called “In Defence of Economic Growth” which was a rebuttal of the famous Club of Rome 1972 book “The Limits to Growth”.
In 2002, Prof. Beckerman published a book called “A Poverty of Reason: Economic Growth and Sustainable Development”. If you or your advisers on environmental policies haven’t read it before, I thoroughly recommend it as a succinct and massively sensible analysis of many environmentalists’ arguments by a brilliant economist and excellent teacher. He is still going strong at 87; he’s still teaching at UCL, mainly on ethical issues in Economics which he touches on in this book when addressing the mistakes made by many environmentalists about intergenerational ethics, rights and basic economics when considering issues like resource depletion, climate change and the precautionary principle.
This is a re-blog of an article first published on Teresa Nielson-Hayden’s website last year:
Medieval storms and changing coastlines
by Teresa Nielson-Hayden
I’ve visited Rye in Sussex. It’s a charming little town that used to be one of the Cinque Ports, and overlooks what used to be Romney Marsh. At any rate, that’s what I was told when I was there; and when I climbed up on top of Rye’s church tower, I could see green fields stretching off in all directions. It is therefore a bit unnerving to discover how violently all that happened.
From the Guardian, on the great storms of 1287:
There were two “great storms” in 1287. One was on the east coast: it killed hundreds of people in England and drowned thousands on the other side of the North Sea. This disaster was similar to the 1953 flood, when an extreme low pressure coinciding with a high tide caused a storm surge.The other storm, on England’s south coast, must have been ferocious, because in a single night it fundamentally changed the geography. The harbour at Hastings was destroyed, the old town of Winchelsea, which was already under attack from the sea, was abandoned, and the coastline realigned.
Perhaps the most remarkable feature of the damage was that the thriving port of New Romney was turned into a landlocked town. Massive quantities of shingle from Dungeness, along with mud and soil, inundated the town, completely filled the harbour, and left New Romney nearly a mile from the sea.
The river Rother, which ran through the town, was stopped up by the storm and found a new outlet to the sea at Rye, 15 miles away, a course that the river still takes. In New Romney (a Saxon name, so not very new) there is still visible evidence of this extreme event. It is a draw for archaeologists, because the silt and gravel covered and preserved the town.
Visitors to the parish church of St Nicholas, the only surviving building from the period, have to step down into the church. There are still stains on the pillars marking the level of the flood.
My thanks to Hans Jelbring, who has sent me a copy of a paper by Nils Axel Morner. The paper introduces the concept of ‘Neotectonics’ and defines the epoch as beginning around 3M years ago, when we entered the current run of glacial interglacial cycles. Nils proposes the hypothesis that movements of the tectonic plates, especially in the uplift of mountainous plateaux and the closing of the strait between South america and Antarctica, amplified the effects of Milankovitch orbital cycles and resulted in a fall in Earth’s average surface temperature. I’ve provided a few excerpts here, but be sure to download and read the whole paper, it reads easily and isn’t too long.
Neotectonics, the new global tectonic regime during the last 3 ma and the initiation of ice ages
NILS -AXEL MÖRNER
Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Abstract
It recently became evident that the globe experienced a significantly changed tectonic
regiment from about 3.0 Ma onwards. This puts the term “neotectonics” in quite a new
perspective. We are now able to identify the last 3 Ma as characterized by generally
intensified tectonic activity. This period may hence be looked upon as a special
“neotectonic period”. Large areas were rapidly uplifted between 3.0 and 2.5 Ma. This led
to a seemingly more general lowering of the ocean floor due to an adjustment of the
geoid-oceanoid level. The tectonic reorganization 3.0-2.5 Ma ago led to the initiation of
global ice ages, the first one of which occurred at about 2.3 Ma.
From the Times of India. H/T the GWPF
Good snowfall gives new life to glaciers
MANALI: With high-altitude mountains in Himachal Pradesh experiencing up to 100 cm fresh snowfall in November month after 10 years, the abundance of snow on mountains has rejuvenated nearly one thousand glaciers and has ensured uninterrupted supply of water for drinking, irrigation and hydel projects.
Even after years of research on glaciers and climate of Himalayas, scientists have failed to learn the pattern of the weather here. While scanty snowfall and rising temperature in last decade had sparked the possibilities of fast shrinking of glaciers, good spells of snowfall in last three years have changed the trend with glaciers almost growing to their original size. Some scientists say that despite heavy snowfall in winters, the extreme heat in summers is causing the melting of the glaciers with abnormal speed and others say extreme cold in winters is neutralizing the minor effect of risen temperature in summer. Overall, speed of melting of glaciers has reduced over the past few years due to good snowfall in winter months.
The new open peer review system on clim-past.net seems to be off to a good start with responses to this discussion paper by Michael Asten of Monash University:
Estimate of climate sensitivity from
carbonate microfossils dated near the
Eocene-Oligocene global cooling
M. W. Asten
School of Geosciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia
Received: 9 September 2012 – Accepted: 17 September 2012 – Published: 5 October 2012
Correspondence to: M. W. Asten (michael.asten(at)monash.edu)
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
Abstract
Climate sensitivity is a crucial parameter in global temperature modelling. An estimate
is made at the time 33.4Ma using published high-resolution deep-sea temperature
proxy obtained from foraminiferal 18O records from DSDP site 744, combined with
published 5 data for atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) from carbonate microfossils,
where 11B provides a proxy for pCO2. The pCO2 data shows a pCO2 decrease
accompanying the major cooling event of about 4 C from greenhouse conditions to icecap
conditions following the Eocene-Oligocene boundary (33.7 My). During the cooling
pCO2 fell from 1150 to 770 ppmv. The cooling event was followed by a rapid and huge
10 increase in pCO2 back to 1130 ppmv in the space of 50 000 yr. The large pCO2 increase
was accompanied by a small deep-ocean temperature increase estimated as
0.59±0.063 C. Climate sensitivity estimated from the latter is 1.1±0.4 C (66% confidence)
compared with the IPCC central value of 3 C.
Here’s an interesting article which was published in ‘Punch’ in 1976. My thanks to Ian Laidlaw for providing copy. It provides some historical context to the climate debate, and shows not much has changed in terms of uncertainty. It’s also a fun, well written piece. Following that, some more very british humour from Marriot Edgar, for the amusement of those hit by flooding this weekend.
