Suspect GRL Letter on claimed polar shift, a hockey stick again

Figure from preprint

From

Chen, J.L., C.R. Wilson, J.C. Ries, B.D. Tapley, Rapid ice melting drives Earth’s pole to the east, Geophys. Res. Lett., DOI: 10.1029/2013GL056164, 2013
GRL Letters site

A Letter in GRL makes a fuss about about earth polar shift, where of course some new toy is involved, GRACE in this case. Unfortunately for the authors they also deal in a dataset where I know far more than most, polar wobble.

UK Domestic energy prices skyrocket at five times the rate of the RPI since year 2000

A shocking statistic, when you consider wage increases for many low income families have been below inflation for most of this time. The Government report on fuel poverty needs to be read with this graph in mind. H/T the Carbon Brief.

Kevin Trenberth: ” the science is just beginning”

From Nature.com blogs, indications that Keven Trenberth is returning to the scientific method. Hopefully, he’ll get real about the toa energy balance uncertainty too.

Predictions of climate
Kevin Trenberth

I have often seen references to predictions of future climate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), presumably through the IPCC assessments (the various chapters in the recently completedWorking Group I Fourth Assessment report ican be accessed through this listing). In fact, since the last report it is also often stated that the science is settled or done and now is the time for action.

In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been. The IPCC instead proffers “what if” projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios. There are a number of assumptions that go into these emissions scenarios. They are intended to cover a range of possible self consistent “story lines” that then provide decision makers with information about which paths might be more desirable. But they do not consider many things like the recovery of the ozone layer, for instance, or observed trends in forcing agents. There is no estimate, even probabilistically, as to the likelihood of any emissions scenario and no best guess.

Even if there were, the projections are based on model results that provide differences of the future climate relative to that today. None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate.

Callendar, Jaworowski and Beck, who is believable?

According to Jaworowski there was cherry picking by Callendar as above and he gives reference.

A high resolution look at a sunny day

What follows shows nothing new but is food for thought given the matter of pyrgeometers on the Talkshop.

Figure 1

1st May was a particularly sunny day in southern England but cool, with a continuing wind from Norway via the North Sea.

The Earth Is Hotter Than We Thought

I think there are probably quite a lot of ramifications to this news for climateers to consider which I’m too tired to think of. Over to the talkshop massive:

The core of the Earth is nearly 1,000 degrees hotter than previously thought, making it as fiery as the surface of the sun.

Following new experiments, scientists have established that the core temperature is 6,000 C, much higher than the previous estimate of 5,000.

Using X-rays to probe into the behaviour of iron crystals, putting samples of iron under extreme pressure, researchers were able to examine how iron crystals melt and form.

The new tests, using one of the world’s most intense sources of X-rays located at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility, the research team were able to re-create the same pressure at the core.

[co-mod:
Here is much better copy, the original press release PDF here  http://www2.cnrs.fr/en/2209.htm
--Tim]

Pyrgeometers untangled

This drawing shows the basic internals of a simple passive pyrgeometer.

Heat flows from roughly earth ground temperature into the body, finds it’s way through the body to the underside of the thermoelectric generator, then through that and for a clear sky then radiates from the top side to space, unless there are heavy clouds or it is raining.

I repeat, heat flow is from the ground upwards. (under very rare meteorological conditions a minor reverse flow happens, the former is overwhelmingly dominant)

This is far from the whole convoluted story, which I will now try and explain. In reality it is very simple.

Discussions on pyrgeometers (IR measurement), Part 2

Courtesy Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos
Radiation instrument with cover removed

Since I have just made available numeric data which will add meat to talk about pyrgeometers and how heat behaves and travels in the atmosphere, a continuation of a long Talkshop thread can take place here. If you want to comment on what the Chilbolton data means, then this is the thread.

Original thread is here.

Chilbolton Observatory unofficial dataset, numeric and plots

Example data. Lidar is useful in identifying cloud layers, clear sky, it cannot though see multiple layers, where radar images if available are more useful. Click to open full size.

[UPDATE 2013/05/05,  archive release with corrections] An unofficial high resolution dataset has been derived from web published graphs running from 16th February 2013 to 20th April 2013 (less 23rd Feb), just over 60 days of data at about 2.3 minutes resolution for about 23 hours a day. The data includes atmospheric water parameters and thermal radiation parameters, all measured from surface level. Archive period includes the exceptionally cold March 2013. The weather hereabouts was cold but unlike most of the rest of the UK there was little snow, nor was the temperature very low.

A new way to calculate the value of Pi?

Barbury Crop Circle represents Pi

Update: I made a dumb algebra mis-step – back to the drawing board.

I believe I’ve found a new way to calculate the value of Pi. Before anyone starts shouting at me, the value I’ve arrived at is Pi, not some new number I’m claiming to be the circumference of a circle divided by its diameter.

So, what is the equation I’ve come up with which can calculate the value of Pi?

Here it is: