There is a new open access paper published in Environmental Research Letters by Yannick Peings and Gudrun Magnusdottir entitled ‘Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean’. It’s another blow to the ‘bad winter weather is caused by us wicked humans’ doom mongers such as Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo.
Archive for the ‘Ocean dynamics’ Category
Here we have two fine scientists who have written an excellent and easily readable paper, well supported by the evidence they cite.
2400-year cycle in atmospheric radiocarbon concentration: bispectrum of 14C data over the last 8000 years
S. S. Vasiliev and V. A. Dergachev
Received: 5 September 2000 – Revised: 6 August 2001 – Accepted: 21 August 2001
From the ‘you couldn’t make this sh1t up… oh, they did’ dept. via Reuters:
Sea level rise has been one of the clearest signs of climate change – water expands as it warms and parts of Greenland and Antarctica are thawing, along with glaciers from the Himalayas to the Alps.
But in a puzzle to climate scientists, the rate slowed to 2.4 millimeters (0.09 inch) a year from 2003 to 2011 from 3.4 mm from 1994-2002, heartening skeptics who doubt that deep cuts are needed in mankind’s rising greenhouse gas emissions.
Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change on Sunday, experts said the rate from 2003-2011 would have been 3.3 mm a year when excluding natural shifts led by an unusually high number of La Nina weather events that cool the surface of the Pacific Ocean and cause more rain over land.
“There is no slowing in the rate of sea level rise” after accounting for the natural variations, lead author Anny Cazenave of the Laboratory for Studies in Geophysics and Spatial Oceanography in Toulouse, France, told Reuters.
In La Nina years, more rain fell away from oceans, including over the Amazon, the Congo basin and Australia, she said. It is unclear if climate change itself affects the frequency of La Ninas.
Rainfall over land only temporarily brakes sea level rise.
“Eventually water that falls as rain on land comes back into the sea,” said Anders Levermann, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who was not involved in the study. “Some of it goes into ground water but most of it will drain into rivers, or evaporate.”
HIATUS IN WARMING
The apparent slowing of sea level rise coincided with what the U.N. panel of climate experts calls a hiatus in global warming at the Earth’s surface, when temperatures have risen less sharply despite record emissions of greenhouse gases.
“The slowdown in sea level rise … is due to natural variability in the climate and is not indicative of a slowdown in the effects of global warming,” Nature Climate Change said.
Many scientists suspect that the “missing heat” from a build-up greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is going into the deep oceans as part of natural variations in the climate.
But, because water expands as it warms, that theory had been hard to reconcile with the apparent slowdown in sea level rise.
Read the full story
While giggling about the botched “Death blow” dealt by Anthony Watts and other members of team wassup to our solar-planetary theory yesterday, it occurred to me that the rather thin rolled-up paper they tried to bludgeon Nicola Scafetta with only considered the all too brief thermometer record. No wonder Sverre Holm found his windows too narrow to see the big picture through, as Nicola Scafetta pointed out in a comment deleted by Anthony Watts. When considering climate swings on the timescale of interest, in this case, around 60 years, we need to look at longer records.
A paper we discussed a few days ago used a paleoproxy to compare millennial scale changes in terrestrial climatic indicators with Steinhilber et al’s 2009 10Be proxy reconstruction of TSI (Total Solar Irradiance). Their work is sufficiently detailed to be able to discern sub-centennial swings in these climatic and solar indicators. Here’s panel ‘d’ of their figure 2, which I’ve annotated with vertical lines marking peaks in the curves.
H/T to Dr Michele Casati for alerting us to a new paper in Nature Geoscience which finds that low solar activity is the likely cause of blocking highs bringing polar air into northern Europe during the little ice age. According to the Sciencedaily post about the paper, it also notes that solar activity is predicted to be low for the coming decades. Looking at the references isn’t obvious where this prediction comes from. I’ll look at the full paper later today and update the post.
There were several centennial-scale fluctuations in the climate and oceanography of the North Atlantic region over the past 1,000 years, including a period of relative cooling from about AD 1450 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age1. These variations may be linked to changes in solar irradiance, amplified through feedbacks including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation2. Changes in the return limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are reflected in water properties at the base of the mixed layer south of Iceland.
Influence of Geothermal Heat on past and present climate
Zuid Scharwoude, februari 2014, V 1.4
Current climate science asserts that the sun does not provide enough energy to explain our current pleasant surface temperatures. The Effective temperature for a planet at our distance from the sun without atmosphere is calculated as ~255K, and the atmosphere is supposedly adding ~33K to arrive at the average surface temperature of ~288K for planet Earth. (1)
Interestingly our Moon is such a planet. It reflects less solar radiation than Earth, but its average surface temperature is a mere 197K, as measured by the Diviner Project. (2)
So the assertion that solar energy is not able to explain our surface temperatures is correct, but the temperature difference to explain is at least ~90K. (3)
The Royal Society, in collaboration with the NAS has published a long document about the evidence and causes of climate change. Section’s 4 & 5 deal with the Sun. Count the misleading statements and omissions:
4. What role has the Sun played in climate change in recent decades?
The Sun provides the primary source of energy driving Earth’s climate system, but its variations have played very little role in the climate changes observed in recent decades. Direct satellite measurements since the late 1970s show no net increase in the Sun’s output, while at the same time global surface temperatures have increased (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Measurements of the Sun’s energy incident on Earth show no net increase in solar forcing during the past 30 years, and therefore this cannot be responsible for warming during that period. The data show only small periodic amplitude variations associated with the Sun’s 11-year cycle. Figure by Keith Shine. Source: TSI data from Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, Switzerland, adjusted down by 4.46 W m-2 to agree with the 2008 solar minimum data from Kopp and Lean, 2011; temperature data from the HadCRUT4 dataset, UK Met Office, Hadley Centre (larger version)
The images show the remarkable changes that have occurred in the Nadikdik Atoll, in the southern Marshall Islands, between 1945 and 2010. (Credit: NZ Herald)
New research has shown the remarkable rebirth of a Pacific atoll devastated by a typhoon over a century ago.
The University of Auckland study, published in the journal Geomorphology, highlights the dynamism of island systems of the Pacific over relatively short periods of time.
Lisa Goddard of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, New York has a commentary article in Nature Climate Change today entitled ‘Heat hide and seek’ which caught my eye. In part it says this:
Natural variability seems to be capable of accounting for changes in ocean heat uptake of the magnitude experienced. Many recent studies point to the role of PDO in this recent hiatus. What is particularly compelling is that this period has also been one of negative PDO. Further suggestive evidence is that the last period with decade-scale trends in global mean temperature as weak as that experienced since the turn of the century occurred through the 1950s and early 1960s, which was another period dominated by very negative PDO conditions. This shows that hiatus periods are unusual but not unprecedented.
Reblogged from Jaime Jessop’s nascent climatecontrarian site:
Climate Wars – CO2 vs. Solar in the Battle to Lay Claim to Jet Stream Anomalies
By Jaime Jessop – 23-2-2014
Mat Collins of Exeter University admitted to the world a week ago that the direct cause of the UK’s wet and windy winter was/is the North Atlantic Jet Stream. It has been directly responsible for the ‘conveyor belt’ of powerful storms which have hit the UK, one after another, in seemingly endless succession, since December 2013 all the way into February of this year. The rain precipitated by those storms has resulted in widespread river flooding.
In addition, a particularly deep depression which coincided with a very high tide on the 5th/6th December also resulted in fairly severe coastal flooding along eastern coastal areas. Nothing as bad as the devastating tidal surge of 1953 but that was more down to massively improved flood defences in the last 50 years. The Dec 2013 tidal surge was probably only a shade less menacing in terms of actual sea level rise than was the 1953 event. Severe gales and storm force winds have also driven huge waves over sea defences in Wales and the West Country, resulting in yet more localised flooding.
All this chaos due to the Jet Stream, due to the run of extreme weather caused by that Jet Stream. But, given the exhaustive news coverage and the opportunity for a propaganda coup, it was inevitable that the proponents of CO2 induced global warming would figure out some way to link in the storms with ‘climate change’ and, right on cue, up stepped Julia Slingo to claim that ‘all the evidence’ pointed to a link between the UK floods and ‘climate change’.