I’m of the opinion that before getting into the complexity of numerical modelling, it’s wise to put considerable effort into trying to understand the physical processes at work in the climate system, and the origins of the energy flows that drive them. David Evans’ recent series of posts over at Jo Nova’s site have generated a lot of interesting discussion (despite being roundly ignored by Anthony Watts at WUWT), and I think we can shed some light on the ‘mysterious 11yr lag’ between solar input and climate response.
Archive for the ‘sea ice’ Category
Phys.org finds a nice way of saying the doomsters have completely misunderstood the reason why the West Antarctic Ice Sheet outlet has been thinning. New research finds hotter than previously thought geothermal activity underneath the glacier. This means the animated model showing massive WAIS recession by 2350 Cabot Institute director Prof. Rich Pancost was scaring the punters with down at SPRI last week is junk science:
Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly changing outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is not only being eroded by the ocean, it’s being melted from below by geothermal heat, researchers at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin (UTIG) report in the current edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The findings significantly change the understanding of conditions beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where accurate information has previously been unobtainable.
The Thwaites Glacier has been the focus of considerable attention in recent weeks as other groups of researchers found the glacier is on the way to collapse, but more data and computer modeling are needed to determine when the collapse will begin in earnest and at what rate the sea level will increase as it proceeds. The new observations by UTIG will greatly inform these ice sheet modeling efforts.
A very important topic indeed, thanks to Judith Curry for raising it.
Originally posted on Climate Etc.:
by Judith Curry
. . . suggesting that Dansgaard-Oeschger events resulted from a combination of the effects of sea ice and ice shelves—structures that help define the margins of ice sheets—to account for both the rapid and the slower parts of the cycle.
View original 1,221 more words
The dynamics of ocean waves in polar regions give us important clues about the behaviour of sea ice in those areas, according to researchers.
“The ice floes bend with the waves, and over time you can imagine that this creates fatigue and eventually the ice will fracture. Interestingly, the fractures tend to be perpendicular to the direction of the waves, and to be of even widths.”
Re the Arctic, a related BBC report notes ‘that wave heights are going to change with increasing distance from the ice edge to the land, and that could have more of an impact on ice break-up.’
Could that suggest a ‘feedback effect’: greater distance to land = more ice break-up etc.?
BBC report: Ocean waves influence polar ice extent
Storm-induced sea-ice breakup and the implications for ice extent
On Saturday My lady and I travelled with friends Ian and Susan down the Scott Polar Research Institute to a talk given by Rich Pancost, the professor at the head of the Cabot Institute at the University of Bristol. This outfit is comprised of a small team which co-ordinates cross disciplinary effort from other faculties at the University to help address the university’s ‘two big themes’ of environment and health.
Pierre L. Gosselin reports on a Spiegel Online article
Models Wrong Again…Sea Ice Break-Up Caused In Large Part By Storm-Generated Oceanic Wave And Wind Dynamics!
By P Gosselin on 31. Mai 2014
Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski has a fascinating piece on what likely causes most of the sea ice to break up. The Spiegel introduction:
Sea ice is disappearing in the Arctic, around the Antarctic it is growing – today’s conventional climate models are unable to explain this contradiction. One effect has just been measured by sensors: wave motion is able to crack ice, hundreds of kilometers away.”
Link to NoTricksZone article Follow his link to the Spiegel photos, magnificent.
If we believe that we’ll believe anything. Jo Nova satirises doom-mongers who try to claim the apparently inexorable seasonal advances in Antarctic sea ice extent must be somebody’s fault and, well, Australians are the nearest so QED – it’s them.
Is there a contest to find the most absurd explanations of climate phenomena? Somebody must think so if this is anything to go by.
Discover the astounding truth – or not – here:
Antarctica stealing Australian rain
Sounds like a ‘tipping point’ :-)
Originally posted on Real Science:
In 2007, leading experts said that the Arctic will be ice-free by 2013, and that it will all melt away quite suddenly.
The green circle below shows the date of that prediction. Since then, the average Arctic sea ice area has grown by more than two million km². There has been no trend for 10 years
These climate experts talk very confidently about things they understand nothing about, it gets repeated by useful idiots in the press, and then they both get paid to drag civilization back to the dark ages..
Another twist in the ‘climate change’ saga.
‘Polar Bears Face Threats to Survival Thanks to Too Much Ice’
A 2010 paper by University College London (UCL) reported:
‘Evidence from ice-core and marine records for the last glacial period and climate models has supported this bipolar seesaw process, but the extent to which its operation is affected by climate conditions and the hydrological cycle remains unclear. This new study, published in February’s Nature Geoscience, shows that the bipolar see-saw was a feature of the penultimate glacial period, but that its operation was also modified by the background climate state.’
Now a new paper on this topic has appeared.
No prizes for guessing why.
‘An extremely cold winter left most of Lake Superior frozen over’
Any amount of convoluted excuses and upside down logic may be put forward as a smokescreen by ‘warmists’ but the fact is, it was a historically cold winter in that region.
A new paper in the Royal Meteorological Soc quarterly a review paper finds that stratosperic ozone recovery in the southern hemisphere will have a strong effect on surface temperatures.
Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery
Michael Previdi1,*, Lorenzo M. Polvani1,2
We review what is presently known about the climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and its projected recovery, focusing on the responses of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Compared to well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), the radiative forcing of climate due to observed stratospheric ozone loss is very small: in spite of this, recent trends in stratospheric ozone have caused profound changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate system, primarily by altering the tropospheric midlatitude jet, which is commonly described as a change in the Southern Annular Mode. Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed poleward shift of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes.
Clive has published an interesting series of articles on his blog. Here is food for thought.
Does the Moon trigger interglacials?
Posted on January 10, 2014 by Clive Best
Why did the last 8 glacial periods only end when the earth’s orbit around the sun reached maximum eccentricity ? This is the real unsolved mystery of the Ice Ages as discussed in previous posts and recently on scienceofdoom.
- Phenomenology of Ice Ages
- What causes interglacials – part 1
- Part 2: The real cause of interglacials – Resonant dust clouds
With the last of these posts I finally thought there could be a solution to this mystery based on resonant interplanetary dust, but alas I could find no evidence whatsoever in TSI data and dismissed the idea. However I now realise that perhaps there is another solution which may have been looking us in the face all the time.
I wasn’t going to post anything else today… had me chuckling.
Wonder how deep a hole can be dug?
Complete with transmogrifying,
the Russian icebreaker MV Akademik Shokalskiy
Here’s another guest post to get the thought processes working at the weekend. This question, posed by Bob FJ is a good one. The IPCC and the cryosphere experts seem to be telling us that ‘global warming’ is responsible for the downtrend in Arctic sea ice over the last few decades, during the warm phase of the ocean oscillations since we’ve had satellite measurements of total ice area.
Why does Arctic sea ice loss start in March at ~300C below freezing?
Guest post by Bob Fernley-Jones
Not only is it sub-freezing for several months, (see fig 2) but fig 1 shows the sun very low in the sky:
Figure 1 and the data are derived from this calculation tool.
Talkshop commenter ‘Caleb’ has alerted me to an unusual event; Joe Romm approved one of my comments on his blog at Think Progress. Intrigued, I went to see, and found that not only had Joe approved my comment, but replied to it with the offer of some free money. I’ll gladly take up the offer of a wager Joe, subject to the agreement of terms. Since Joe has been kind enough to offer the wager, I’ll let him have first shot at defining what he means by “the last throes of the death spiral.” So far as the size of the wager is concerned, I’m not a rich man, so the limit for me is $3000. How about it Joe?
This is a repost of an adaptation from Jim Steele’s book Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism. New talkshop contributor ‘docrichard’ should read it.
Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University posted at WUWT on July 22nd 2013
Global warming theory predicts that rising levels of CO2 will gradually warm the air and cause an increasing loss of sea ice. As temperatures rise, ice nearer the equator was predicted to be the first to disappear and over the coming decades ice closer to the poles would be the last to melt. However that is not the reality we are now observing. Antarctic sea ice is mostly located outside the Antarctic Circle (Figure 1) and should be the first to melt due to global warming theory. Yet Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and expanding towards the equator contradicting all the models. As Dr. Laura Landrum from the National Center for Atmospheric Research wrote, “Antarctic sea ice area exhibits significant decreasing annual trends in all six [model] ensemble members from 1950 to 2005, in apparent contrast to observations that suggest a modest ice area increase since 1979.”10 (see Figure 2)
It’s the late melt season and speculation about the Arctic reaches fever itch over the next few weeks. or maybe not, since the alarmists seem rather muted this year. perhaps it’s because the ice extent is higher and temperatures lower than last year. NoTrickZone contributor Jimbo has put together a number of prognostications from previous years:
Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim - Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
Canada.com – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
[Professor Louis Fortier - Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]