Is the North Pole Going to Melt entirely? asks Newspaper in 1923

As the northern melt and polar bear worrying season gets underway, a timely reminder of the repetitive nature of ‘unprecedented’ climate happenings. H/T ‘IluvCO2′

NORTH POLE MELTING. CHANGE OF CLIMATE. MANY GLACIERS VANISHED.
Northern Star (Lismore, NSW : 1876 – 1954) Thursday 5 April 1923

Is the North Pole going to melt entirely? Are the Arctic regions warming up with prospect of a great climatic change in that part of the world? Science is asking these questions (says “Popular Science Siftings”). Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas around Spitsbergen and the Eastern Arctic all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, with hitherto unheard-of high temperatures on that part of the earth’s surface. Observations to that effect have covered the last five years during which the warmth has been steadily increasing. In August the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitsbergen and Bear Island under the leadership of Dr. Adolf Hoel, professor of geology in the University of Christiania, the object in view being to survey and chart areas productive of coal and other minerals.

Possible conclusion on Arctic ice

In response to an article yesterday about a possible amplitude variation in annual Arctic sea ice Roger Andrews wrote “Seems to me you could conclude a lot from a model like that.”

Figure 1

Yes I was sitting on a wall not wanting to join what-might-be with the methodology.

It’s easier for me to compose a new article with many images than put them together graphically. Taking some of the items shown yesterday here I put the sea ice back together again before I get accused of vandalism. I wonder what R² result there will be?

Arctic sea ice, experimental decode of modulation

This article involves novel methodology so please act sensibly, I am risking ridicule by showing experimental analysis results.

Figure 1

Maybe non-technical folks should skip this article, which offers no conclusion on sea ice.

Posit: for many earth datasets the dynamics of earth act as a modulator encoding analogue change as modulation spectra. Modulation arises from earth spin and orbit.

Tim Cullen: What a Wonderful Water World

While I was over in Spain I spent some time in the company of Tim ‘MalagaBay’ Cullen whose generous help and hospitality made my transport and accommodation arrangements a pleasure rather than a chore. We also got to spend a good amount of time brainstorming climate ideas and discussing this post, which I found very interesting and, as always with Tim’s work, thought provoking.

What a Wonderful Water World
Tim Cullen : December 2012

 

Having survived the End of the World [on Friday] and having started a new Mayan Long Count [on Saturday] it seems appropriate to celebrate our Wonderful Water World [on Sunday] by splashing a few ideas around for consideration [on Monday].

Brent Walker: Extra Terrestrial Influences on Natures Risks

My thanks to Doug Cotton, who has flagged up this paper offering a good overview of the Earth’s solar system environment, and how it is affected by it. Brent Walker is an actuary who is interested in assessing risk posed by nature. He has pulled together much f the material which interests us here at the talkshop into a single, very readable paper, which I recommend. Here’s one of the key figures from the text, to whet the appetite:

The first graph above shows the global mean thermosphere density at 400 km altitude, obtained from satellite orbital parameters over four solar cycles. Blue: 81-day centered running mean. Black: annual average. Green dotted lines: envelope of expected decrease due to increasing CO2 levels, in the range of 2% to 5% per decade, starting with the 1976 annual average. This effectively rules out changing levels of carbon dioxide as the cause of the decrease in temperature recently witnessed.

The second graph shows the Global mean thermosphere density annual average plotted as a function of the 26-34 nm solar EUV irradiance annual average measured by the SEM for the ascending (red) and descending (blue) phases of solar cycle 23. Both of these graphs were obtained from the paper: Solomon et al “Anomalously low solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance and thermosphere density during solar minimum”. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, 2010

Jonathan Porrit: Repositioning the Climate Change Debate

Last night the Leeds Sceptical Climateers (Ian, Susan and myself) attended a panel discussion given by the Earth Sciences department at Leeds University’s beautiful Clothworkers Centenary Hall.

Topping the bill was Jonathan Porrit, the veteran alternative energy and environmental campaigner. Also speaking were “the two Andy’s”, as Porrit referred to them, Professor Andrew Gouldson, and Professor Andrew Shepherd. Their three topics were:   ‘innovation in a low carbon future’, ‘should climate change really be a priority in an age of austerity?’ and ‘is global sea level rise the threat we imagine it to be?’.

Extraordinary Alarmist Propaganda Destined for Our Classrooms – Part 3

Here is the final part of the document outlining the way climate change will be taught in our classrooms. In part 1 we saw some extraordinary claims about the rate of ice melt on Greenland – gone in 50 years. In part 2 we saw how the syllabus will be organised in England, Wales and Scotland. Here we move to experimental work, with two demonstrations. Words fail me, so I’ll let you look for yourself and provide some critique in comments on the suitability of these ‘practical science lessons’ for training young minds after making them fearful of ‘man made climate change’ caused by ‘radiation  from greenhouse gases’.

Phase 3 Process
The Greenhouse Principle in a jar

What you need:

• one large glass jar
• two thermometers
• a sun lamp or access to a sunny area
• a stopwatch
• paper and pencil

Michele Casati: Correlation between solar activity and Arctic ice extent

In Suggestions, Michele has drawn attention to a correlation found by two contributors to the Daltons Minima website in Italy he runs. The following translation is from Google, and is easy to follow. While I think that performing a Pearson correlation between 4th order polynomials is… an interesting technique,  I do think they are onto something here – Note how the Arctic Dipole goes positive at all the solar minima they examine. Bravo Richard and Zambo!

THE NORTH POLE IS MELT AND THE FAULT IS ONLY ……. (PART III)
by Richard and Zambo

In the appointment earlier we learned about this new scheme circulatory, characterized by a dipolar structure and therefore known as pattern Artctic Dipole. This is measured by an index that corresponds to the pressure gradient between the boreal Siberian (centered on the Kara Sea) and the area Canadian-Greenland (DA index.) In short, when there is a strong episode DA +, circulation on the pole (in general on the whole northern hemisphere), undergoes a radical change, with a strong acceleration of the southerly winds of Pacific origin and an increase in northerly winds on the Atlantic-European. This fact leads to a dramatic increase in heat fluxes peaceful directly on the pole, resulting in acceleration of the melting rate of the summer Arctic sea ice. Finally, we have seen the results of experimental studies (PIOMA model in the first place), in which unequivocally demonstrate that the orientation and magnitude of the DA + pattern is the key to understanding and predicting the decline of sea ice in the Arctic basin.

In the third and final part of this paper we try to identify the phenomena that govern the evolution and intensity of the DA pattern, and consequently of Arctic sea ice in summer.
For this purpose, we start by considerations of purely intuitive, based on the following image that shows the progress of the DA index from 1980 to present:

J Martin: Is the Arctic displaying the Mpemba effect?

From the Suggestions page, contributor J. Martin writes: 

I wonder if other people have any views on the idea that the Mpemba effect might also come into play in Arctic Antarctic behaviour ? I would welcome a discussion on this subject.

Mpemba effect ?

The increased ice melt which is largely driven by warmer Arctic currents, then re-freezes at a faster rate. Are we seeing the Mpemba effect in action here ?

Whilst we have figures for Arctic air temperature and graphs for sea ice extent and area, we seem to lack data for Arctic water temperatures to allow a fuller discussion of future Arctic behaviour.

With warmer Arctic currents set against a background of solar cooling we may see wider oscillation between record low ice extent in summer and increasing (perhaps record) ice extent in winter.

A better explanation for the end of ice ages

I’ve been thinking further about this knotty problem, which has vexed climatologists and glaciologists for many years. Finally the light has come on. A little while ago the Hockey Schtick site reported a new paper which had found that the Arctic ocean between 50,000 and 11,000 years ago was warmer than it is now by 1-2C to a considerable depth. The authors think it is due to a reduced fresh water flux.

I think it’s due to the glacial period frozen-year-round Arctic ocean surface providing a skull cap of insulation over the bulk of the Arctic ocean preventing it from losing heat to space.