Archive for the ‘sea ice’ Category

Tim Ball: An arctic tale

Posted: October 17, 2014 by tchannon in History, Incompetence, sea ice

Dr Tim Ball has written a wonderful piece using his knowledge of Arctic history, what really went on with the Franklin expedition. There are echos today.

Weather, Climate, Arctic Ice And The Franklin Expedition

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper proudly announced discovery of one of Captain John Franklin’s ships, either the Erebus or Terror. Identification, of which ship will be relatively easy, based on the known dimensions of the vessels

The article concludes with

The fiasco was summarized when John Rae wrote his final report to the British Admiralty. He recommended that in future any Admiralty expedition should study the survival techniques of the native people. The Admiralty response said, the Royal Navy would never resort to the subterfuge of going native. No wonder the Erebus and Terror sank, with only one ship being discovered 170 years later, and everybody perishing. Government, using incompetent people to advance political agendas at the expense of ordinary people, many of them with remarkable skills and talents, is nothing new in the Arctic.

http://drtimball.com/2014/weather-climate-arctic-ice-and-the-franklin-expedition/

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Emperor penguins, Antarctica [image credit: USAF / Wikipedia]

Emperor penguins, Antarctica [image credit: USAF / Wikipedia]

We’ll highlight some points from the official reaction later but first the opening details from a press report. Note the eagerness to talk down the relevance of Antarctic sea ice.

‘Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.’

‘The new Antarctic sea ice record reflects the diversity and complexity of Earth’s environments, said NASA researchers. Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has referred to changes in sea ice coverage as a microcosm of global climate change.’

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The UK Met Office forecast for things they choose, such as Arctic sea ice extent but seem completely silent on Antarctica or even handedly dealing with both of pairs of extremes.

Ah well, wait a month or two… forecasting is better after the event IYSWIM

Image

Annotated extract from Met Office Arctic sea ice forecast page
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/arctic-sea-ice

It is possible the file dates do not reflect change in the documents.

NSIDC announcement for 2014 page here (where NSIDC also acknowledge the Antarctica extreme)

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oldbrew:

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Deafening silence in most of the mass media about this. Why is that?

Originally posted on sunshine hours:

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Sep 25 2014 – 1,362,000 sq km above the 1981-2010 mean. Data for Day 267. Data here.

13th Day Above the 2013 Record. 184th Daily Record.


antarctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_Zoomed_2014_Day_267_1981-2010


antarctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_2014_Day_267_1981-2010

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Spot the polar vortex [image credit: BBC]

Spot the polar vortex
[image credit: BBC]


Before the usual media suspects get too worked up at yet another ‘study’ proclaiming something or other about humans and climate effects, let’s note what this well-known IPCC author thinks of it:

‘Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, … said he doesn’t agree with Yoon’s study.’

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Myth Of Arctic meltdown exposed again

Posted: August 31, 2014 by oldbrew in propaganda, sea ice, Uncertainty

Arctic ice [image credit: NASA]

Arctic ice [image credit: NASA]


This one runs and runs, but as it’s featured in a story in the UK national press (Daily Mail Online) quoting leading climate science figures like professor Judith Curry, we’ll give it another airing.

There does seem to be a good deal of suspect logic being thrown at the inconvenient fact that Arctic sea ice is refusing to go away as predicted by the UN IPCC and assorted like-minded pundits peddling their biases. Claims that ‘natural variability’ is just a confounding factor interfering with the supposed real story – i.e. significant man-made effects – have the appearance of wishful thinking, as no actual data is offered in support.

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Has Joe done what Uncle Sam couldn’t?

Posted: August 25, 2014 by tchannon in climate, ENSO, sea ice, weather

Some say money can buy brains, brains are cheap. Duffers think that, make the mistake of confusing rote with The Spark. As a wit said ‘the most intelligent person in the room is the room’… to which I add, buying others to inside still leaves the room. Self selection is recursive.

There again for here, an oscillation does not explain itself. Small step first.

Joe Bastardi is writing sense, Gosselin runs with it.

Image

A Single Meteorologist Explains What $165 Billion In Government-Funded Climate Science Couldn’t

By P Gosselin on 24. August 2014

Large scale oceanic oscillations responsible for most of the post 1980 “warming”

By Joe Bastardi

I think global warming is a misnomer.

There is a distortion of the temperature pattern on the globe, brought about by the natural cyclical warming events of the warm PDO and warm AMO together. I spoke about this at Heartland a couple of years ago – how the sea ice increase in the south and the decrease in the north were the hidden message that here is no “warming” just a distortion.

http://notrickszone.com/2014/08/24/a-single-meteorologist-explains-what-165-billion-in-government-funded-climate-science-couldnt/

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Time for a forecast [credit: Wikipedia]

Time for a forecast
[credit: Wikipedia]

The Alaska Dispatch News reported:

Predictions of Arctic summer ice melt come with lots of uncertainty

http://www.adn.com/article/20140801/predictions-arctic-summer-ice-melt-come-lots-uncertainty

(H/T GWPF Reports)

A few highlights:

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I’m of the opinion that before getting into the complexity of numerical modelling, it’s wise to put considerable effort into trying to understand the physical processes at work in the climate system, and the origins of the energy flows that drive them. David Evans’ recent series of posts over at Jo Nova’s site have generated a lot of interesting discussion (despite being roundly ignored by Anthony Watts at WUWT), and I think we can shed some light on the ‘mysterious 11yr lag’ between solar input and climate response.

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There is a new cross party committee on the Arctic, to report in March 2015

Ron Oxburgh is a member of this new House of Lords committee in the Arctic.

Yes, that Ron Oxburgh.

 

His interests declaration makes interesting reading.

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thwaitesPhys.org finds a nice way of saying the doomsters have completely misunderstood the reason why the West Antarctic Ice Sheet outlet has been thinning. New research finds hotter than previously thought geothermal activity underneath the glacier. This means the animated model showing massive WAIS recession by 2350 Cabot Institute director Prof. Rich Pancost was scaring the punters with down at SPRI last week is junk science:

Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly changing outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is not only being eroded by the ocean, it’s being melted from below by geothermal heat, researchers at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin (UTIG) report in the current edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The findings significantly change the understanding of conditions beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where accurate information has previously been unobtainable.

The Thwaites Glacier has been the focus of considerable attention in recent weeks as other groups of researchers found the glacier is on the way to collapse, but more data and computer modeling are needed to determine when the collapse will begin in earnest and at what rate the sea level will increase as it proceeds. The new observations by UTIG will greatly inform these ice sheet modeling efforts.

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oldbrew:

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A very important topic indeed, thanks to Judith Curry for raising it.

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:

by Judith Curry

 . . . suggesting that Dansgaard-Oeschger events resulted from a combination of the effects of sea ice and ice shelves—structures that help define the margins of ice sheets—to account for both the rapid and the slower parts of the cycle.

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Arctic sea ice [image credit: BBC/Getty Images]

Arctic sea ice [image credit: BBC/Getty Images]

The dynamics of ocean waves in polar regions give us important clues about the behaviour of sea ice in those areas, according to researchers.

“The ice floes bend with the waves, and over time you can imagine that this creates fatigue and eventually the ice will fracture. Interestingly, the fractures tend to be perpendicular to the direction of the waves, and to be of even widths.”

Re the Arctic, a related BBC report notes ‘that wave heights are going to change with increasing distance from the ice edge to the land, and that could have more of an impact on ice break-up.’

Could that suggest a ‘feedback effect': greater distance to land = more ice break-up etc.?

BBC report: Ocean waves influence polar ice extent

Research letter:
Storm-induced sea-ice breakup and the implications for ice extent

On Saturday My lady and I travelled with friends Ian and Susan down the Scott Polar Research Institute to a talk given by Rich Pancost, the professor at the head of the Cabot Institute at the University of Bristol. This outfit is comprised of a small team which co-ordinates cross disciplinary effort from other faculties at the University to help address the university’s ‘two big themes’ of environment and health.

cabot

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Pierre L. Gosselin reports on a Spiegel Online article

Models Wrong Again…Sea Ice Break-Up Caused In Large Part By Storm-Generated Oceanic Wave And Wind Dynamics!

By P Gosselin on 31. Mai 2014

Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski has a fascinating piece on what likely causes most of the sea ice to break up. The Spiegel introduction:

Sea ice is disappearing in the Arctic, around the Antarctic it is growing – today’s conventional climate models are unable to explain this contradiction. One effect has just been measured by sensors: wave motion is able to crack ice, hundreds of kilometers away.”

Link to NoTricksZone article Follow his link to the Spiegel photos, magnificent.

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Adélie penguin in Antarctica [Wikipedia]

Adélie penguin in Antarctica [Wikipedia]

If we believe that we’ll believe anything. Jo Nova satirises doom-mongers who try to claim the apparently inexorable seasonal advances in Antarctic sea ice extent must be somebody’s fault and, well, Australians are the nearest so QED – it’s them.

Is there a contest to find the most absurd explanations of climate phenomena? Somebody must think so if this is anything to go by.

Discover the astounding truth – or not – here:
Antarctica stealing Australian rain

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oldbrew:

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Sounds like a ‘tipping point’ :-)

Originally posted on Real Science:

In 2007, leading experts said that the Arctic will be ice-free by 2013, and that it will all melt away quite suddenly.

ScreenHunter_67 Apr. 29 00.32

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′

The green circle below shows the date of that prediction. Since then, the average Arctic sea ice area has grown by more than two million km². There has been no trend for 10 years

ScreenHunter_68 Apr. 29 00.34

iphone.anomaly.arctic.png (512×412)

These climate experts talk very confidently about things they understand nothing about, it gets repeated by useful idiots in the press, and then they both get paid to drag civilization back to the dark ages..

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Alaskan ice too thick for polar bears

Posted: April 28, 2014 by oldbrew in climate, sea ice

Fancy a fish supper?

Fancy a fish supper?


Another twist in the ‘climate change’ saga.

‘Polar Bears Face Threats to Survival Thanks to Too Much Ice’

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2014/04/28/polar-bears-face-problems-thanks-to-too-much-ice-n1830450

Balancing act

Balancing act

A 2010 paper by University College London (UCL) reported:
‘Evidence from ice-core and marine records for the last glacial period and climate models has supported this bipolar seesaw process, but the extent to which its operation is affected by climate conditions and the hydrological cycle remains unclear. This new study, published in February’s Nature Geoscience, shows that the bipolar see-saw was a feature of the penultimate glacial period, but that its operation was also modified by the background climate state.’

http://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/about-the-department/news/news-archive-2010/february-2010/the-hydrological-cycle-and-the-bi-polar-climate-see-saw

Now a new paper on this topic has appeared.
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Satellite view of the Great Lakes [image credit: Wikipedia]

Satellite view of the Great Lakes
[image credit: Wikipedia]

There’s never been a winter quite like it on the Great Lakes, but unlike lurid headlines about melting ice in the Arctic (remember those?) this story gets only modest matter-of-fact coverage in the international media.
No prizes for guessing why.

‘An extremely cold winter left most of Lake Superior frozen over’

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/shipping-season-begins-today-marking-latest-start-ever-1.2616792

Any amount of convoluted excuses and upside down logic may be put forward as a smokescreen by ‘warmists’ but the fact is, it was a historically cold winter in that region.

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