Archive for the ‘sea ice’ Category

A new paper in the Royal Meteorological Soc quarterly a review paper finds that stratosperic ozone recovery in the southern hemisphere will have a strong effect on surface temperatures.

Review Article

Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery

Michael Previdi1,*, Lorenzo M. Polvani1,2

Abstract

We review what is presently known about the climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and its projected recovery, focusing on the responses of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Compared to well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), the radiative forcing of climate due to observed stratospheric ozone loss is very small: in spite of this, recent trends in stratospheric ozone have caused profound changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate system, primarily by altering the tropospheric midlatitude jet, which is commonly described as a change in the Southern Annular Mode. Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed poleward shift of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes.

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Clive has published an interesting series of articles on his blog. Here is food for thought.

Does the Moon trigger interglacials?
Posted on January 10, 2014 by Clive Best

Why did the last 8 glacial periods only end when the earth’s orbit around the sun reached maximum eccentricity ? This is the real unsolved mystery of the Ice Ages as discussed in previous posts and recently on scienceofdoom.

  1. Phenomenology of Ice Ages
  2. What causes interglacials – part 1
  3. Part 2: The real cause of interglacials – Resonant dust clouds

With the last of these posts I finally thought there could be a solution to this mystery based on resonant interplanetary dust, but alas I could find no evidence whatsoever in TSI data and dismissed the idea. However I now realise that perhaps there is another solution which may have been looking us in the face all the time.

Link to “Does the Moon trigger interglacials?”

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Nature takes its Turney excuse pill

Posted: January 6, 2014 by tchannon in humour, Incompetence, sea ice

I wasn’t going to post anything else today… had me chuckling.

Wonder how deep a hole can be dug?

Complete with transmogrifying,

the Russian icebreaker MV Akademik Shokalskiy

http://www.nature.com/news/this-was-no-antarctic-pleasure-cruise-1.14466

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I’m amused to see Global Warmist Professor Chris Turney’s expedition to Antarctica to retrace polar explorer Douglas Mawson’s route and replicate measurements has run into a spot of bother.
image

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Here’s another guest post to get the thought processes working at the weekend. This question, posed by Bob FJ is a good one. The IPCC and the cryosphere experts seem to be telling us that ‘global warming’ is responsible for the downtrend in Arctic sea ice over the last few decades, during the warm phase of the ocean oscillations since we’ve had satellite measurements of total ice area. 

Why does Arctic sea ice loss start in March at ~300C below freezing?

Guest post by Bob Fernley-Jones

Not only is it sub-freezing for several months, (see fig 2) but fig 1 shows the sun very low in the sky:

image1

Figure 1 and the data are derived from this calculation tool.

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Talkshop commenter ‘Caleb’ has alerted me to an unusual event; Joe Romm approved one of my comments on his blog at Think Progress. Intrigued, I went to see, and found that not only had Joe approved my comment, but replied to it with the offer of some free money. I’ll gladly take up the offer of a wager Joe, subject to the agreement of terms. Since Joe has been kind enough to offer the wager, I’ll let him have first shot at defining what he means by “the last throes of the death spiral.” So far as the size of the wager is concerned, I’m not a rich man, so the limit for me is $3000. How about it Joe?

deathspiral_Tong_Jian_and_Pang_Qing

Tong Jian and Pang Qing perform the ‘Death Spiral’ at the 2010 Ice Skating Championship

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This is a repost of an adaptation from Jim Steele’s book  Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism. New talkshop contributor ‘docrichard’ should read it.

seaice.recent.antarctic23-8-13

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University posted at WUWT on July 22nd 2013

Global warming theory predicts that rising levels of CO2 will gradually warm the air and cause an increasing loss of sea ice. As temperatures rise, ice nearer the equator was predicted to be the first to disappear and over the coming decades ice closer to the poles would be the last to melt. However that is not the reality we are now observing. Antarctic sea ice is mostly located outside the Antarctic Circle (Figure 1) and should be the first to melt due to global warming theory. Yet Antarctic sea ice has been increasing and expanding towards the equator contradicting all the models. As Dr. Laura Landrum from the National Center for Atmospheric Research wrote, “Antarctic sea ice area exhibits significant decreasing annual trends in all six [model] ensemble members from 1950 to 2005, in apparent contrast to observations that suggest a modest ice area increase since 1979.”10 (see Figure 2)

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It’s the late melt season and speculation about the Arctic reaches fever itch over the next few weeks. or maybe not, since the alarmists seem rather muted this year. perhaps it’s because the ice extent is higher and temperatures lower than last year. NoTrickZone contributor Jimbo has put together a number of prognostications from previous years:

polar-bearsXinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim - Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
__________________

Canada.com – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.

“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
[Professor Louis Fortier - Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
__________________

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From the HockeyShctick, via GWPF:

A paper published by the Danish Meteorological Institute finds a remarkable correlation of Arctic sea ice observations over the past 500 years to “the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity. A close correlation (R=0.67) of high significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence) is found between the two patterns, suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate.”

The paper adds to several others demonstrating that Arctic sea ice extent and climate is controlled by natural variations in solar activity, ocean & atmospheric oscillations, winds & storm activity, not man-made CO2.

ice-vs-solar
Solar Cycle Length [SCL] shown by dotted line, Koch sea ice extent index from observations in the Greenland Sea shown by solid line.

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In 1969 an icebreaking oil tanker broke through the North West passage but only with assistance.

A prominent program during this time was CRREL ’s participation in the two test voyages of the icebreaking oil tanker Manhattan. Five CRREL researchers journeyed aboard the Manhattan for the “Arctic Tanker Project,” which was financed mainly by Humble Oil, with some assistance from Atlantic Richfield and British Petroleum. The expedition began in September 1969 with two Canadian icebreakers and one U.S. icebreaker trailing the Manhattan. The arrangements were for the icebreakers to carry out search and rescue operations if needed, but the main icebreaking effort was the task of the supertanker. The objective was to have the Manhattan, the largest U.S. commercial vessel then in service, ram itself into the thickest ice that could be found.

The Manhattan eventually succumbed to the ice of McClure Strait, where ice ridges at that time towered up to 40 ft above the water.

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