Archive for the ‘solar system dynamics’ Category

saturn2From New Scientist:

Earth’s comfortable temperatures may be thanks to Saturn’s good behaviour. If the ringed giant’s orbit had been slightly different, Earth’s orbit could have been wildly elongated, like that of a long-period comet.

Our solar system is a tidy sort of place: planetary orbits here tend to be circular and lie in the same plane, unlike the highly eccentric orbits of many exoplanets. Elke Pilat-Lohinger of the University of Vienna, Austria, was interested in the idea that the combined influence of Jupiter and Saturn – the solar system’s heavyweights – could have shaped other planets’ orbits. She used computer models to study how changing the orbits of these two giant planets might affect the Earth.


Jupiter and Uranus [image credit: Jimmy Eubanks / NBC News]

Jupiter and Uranus (as seen from Earth)
[image credit: Jimmy Eubanks / NBC News]

This brief look at Jupiter-Uranus synodic patterns follows the style of the Saturn-Uranus model post, where details of the method are given.

Here we’ll run through the relevant model details then compare with planetary data, as in the other post. It should be straightforward as it’s mostly based on just two Fibonacci numbers: 13 and 21.

For Uranus the notional orbit period will be 84 years (JPL value: 84.016846y).
13 Uranus orbits @ 84y x 13 = 1092 years (84 = 21 x 4).
This will be the full period of the model.


European thoughts on the Euro

Originally posted on Quartz:

The new 10 euro note.

The European Central Bank recently released a new version of the €10 banknote. (It’s nowhere near as nice as Norway’s new notes, but hey, what is?) The central bank for the 18 countries that use the euro decided to promote the release of the currency with a selfie competition:

Though the end of the month, Twitter and Instagram users who take a selfie with the new note and tag it with the hashtag #mynew10 will be entered into a competition to win a new iPad. But not all entries are eligible for the prize—”Selfies must not under any circumstances show the new €10 banknote in a situation that may adversely affect the reputation and honour of the ECB,” the bank says…

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Cassini probe at Saturn [credit: NASA]

Cassini probe at Saturn
[credit: NASA]

Let’s say first of all: readers who don’t want to see the fine details will be offered a shortcut to the main points instead.

For this look at Saturn-Uranus conjunction patterns a model will be proposed, then the planetary data compared to it to see how good a match it is – or not. This post follows on from two recent posts which can be found here and here.

The model will be based on the orbit period of Uranus and the Saturn-Uranus conjunction period.


Germany To Drop 2020 Climate Targets

Posted: November 17, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics


Paul Homewood picks up the story on new German energy policy realism. Meanwhile the UK govt. Conti ues to apply the madcap carbon floor price and jeopardize our energy supply.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood


Since the Federal elections in Germany, earlier this year, there has been a running battle between Sigmar Gabriel, minister for economic affairs and energy, and Barbara Hendricks, the environmental minister.

Gabriel has been keen to drop CO2 targets, because of the damage they have been doing to the economy, while his colleague takes the opposite view. According to Der Spiegel, it is Gabriel who has won the battle.

Breitbart report:

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The greenhouse effect that wasn’t (Part 2)

Posted: November 16, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics


Interesting read. Reblogged for discussion at the talkshop.

Originally posted on Okulær:





First, what is the rGHE supposed to do?

It is supposed to make the surface below a radiatively active atmosphere warmer than if this particular kind of atmosphere weren’t there. By extension, one could claim – and this is after all what the ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming hypothesis’ is all about – that the stronger the rGHE, the stronger its warming effect.

Now, as far as I’m concerned, this is a prediction that should be possible to test. Or else, what good is it?

Again, what is the strictest definition of the rGHE? What is its ‘surface warming mechanism’ supposed to be, in the simplest of terms? We went through this in Part 1, where what was defined as the “greenhouse effect” of clouds was overwhelmed by their opposing “albedo effect”, leading to an overall…

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Writing from Australia Ian Wilson will be familiar to Talkshop regulars expounding his interest in astronomical connections with earth. He has three related recent articles and now a summary binding them together. Tim adds, the subject has a long history including false accusations of astrology by detractors; in this linked 1999 paper by a veteran scientist some of the origins and history is briefly mentioned and also that as data and computing power becomes available progress is being made. It mentions El Nino [paper see ref 1].  Strangers may need to get a conceptual understanding of the regular alignment of the earth moon and sun, where self evident effect on earth is the cyclic variation is ocean tidal height.

Over to Ian


If you are unfamiliar with this topic you may wish to read the following three post in order to understand this current covering post.

Observations of the Earth rate of spin (i.e. LOD) show that there are abrupt decreases in the Earth’s rotation rate of the order of a millisecond that take place roughly once every 13.7 days. These slow downs in spin occur whenever the oceanic (and atmospheric) tidal bulge is dragged across the Earth’s equator by the Moon. They are produced by the conservation of total angular momentum of the Earth, its oceans and its atmosphere.


Nicola Scafetta has emailed me to let us know he has a new paper in press which adresses critiques of our solar-planetary theory. I can’t do justice to presenting this work by illustrating this post with figures from the paper using my cellphone, but this a seriously impressive piece of work which Nicola generously shares with Talkshop readers via a link below the break. Nicola writes:

I just would like to share my latest paper
Nicola Scafetta, 2014. Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate  oscillations: a reply to some critiques.

Astrophysics and Space Science in press.

For those who followed this research, the paper strongly rebuts some interesting critiques of the planetary theory of solar and climate variation made by Holm andCauquoin et al. that emerged in the literature during the first months of the 2014. (It also rebuts the very improper and unprofessional criticism made by Anthony Watts)



Excellent short post on uncertainty in global temperature error ranges.

Originally posted on Diagram Monkey:

Estimating uncertainty in historical climate data sets is not easy. Occasionally the methods and results are criticised, often by people from an engineering background. In engineering, you have to get things right. If you don’t propagate your measurement uncertainties correctly things don’t work. You also get a lot of feedback from the real world which will let you know when you’ve screwed up. It’s not uncommon for someone with such a background to look at a global average temperature quoted with a 0.1K uncertainty and snort.

They point out that the basic measurements with which we work can’t possibly be measuring temperature with an uncertainty much less than 1K therefore, the uncertainty in the global average sea-surface temperature must be around 1K. At best, probably worse. If pressed they point out that given these are measurements of uncertain provenance, we should treat them with deep suspicion. I agree. Deep suspicion…

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Exceptionally detailed image of a young star 450 light years away reveals detail of proto-planetary disc with gaps. :

This image compares the size of the Solar System with HL Tauri and its surrounding protoplanetary disc. Although the star is much smaller than the Sun, the disc around HL Tauri stretches out to almost three times as far from the star as Neptune is from the Sun.

This image compares the size of the Solar System with HL Tauri and its surrounding protoplanetary disc. Although the star is much smaller than the Sun, the disc around HL Tauri stretches out to almost three times as far from the star as Neptune is from the Sun.

HL Tauri — a young star, about 450 light-years away, which is surrounded by a dusty disc [1]. The resulting image exceeds all expectations and reveals unexpectedly fine detail in the disc of material left over from star birth. It shows a series of concentric bright rings, separated by gaps [2].

“These features are almost certainly the result of young planet-like bodies that are being formed in the disc. This is surprising since such young stars are not expected to have large planetary bodies capable of producing the structures we see in this image,” said Stuartt Corder, ALMA Deputy Director.

When we first saw this image we were astounded at the spectacular level of detail. HL Tauri is no more than a million years old, yet already its disc appears to be full of forming planets. This one image alone will revolutionise theories of planet formation,” explained Catherine Vlahakis, ALMA Deputy Program Scientist and Lead Program Scientist for the ALMA Long Baseline Campaign.


Solar system planets [image credit: BBC]

Solar system planets by size
[image credit: BBC]

Using a simple formula we’re now able to see the link between Jupiter and Saturn orbits. As in the original giant planets update post the numbers are quite large but easily connected to the ‘Why Phi’ concept.

Using the orbit period of each planet we derive the synodic period, i.e. the time taken for the path of faster planet Jupiter to ‘catch up’ with slower planet Saturn. If we call the orbit periods J and S and the synodic period J-S we can make two calculations:
(360 / S) x J-S and (360 / J) x J-S.
The difference between the two results should be 360.


Why Phi: giant planets update

Posted: October 26, 2014 by oldbrew in Maths, solar system dynamics

Solar system planets [image credit: BBC]

Solar system planets by size
[image credit: BBC]

The Why Phi series started with a discussion around ‘Relations between the Fibonacci Series and Solar System Orbits’ (link below)

Now NASA has updated its planetary data as of 20th October 2014. With the revised numbers (see below for source) we have to re-calculate the orbital relationships of the giant planets.

Amending the original numbers we find:
89 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions = almost 1768 years
In Fibonacci numbers: 1768 = 34 x 13 x 2²

And there’s more…


UK rainfall cycles

Posted: October 23, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics


Great post on UK rainfall data

Originally posted on xmetman:

With all this talk in the media about our recent record wet winters in the UK, I thought I would take a look at the recent daily regional precipitation figures that are available for the UK and see if I could find any cycles or periodicity in them. By the way, the regional data extends back to 1931 and is free to download from the Met Office.

Because rainfall at the daily level produces far too much information to visualise by just looking at a moving average overlaid on the top of a bar chart of daily values, I though I would display the daily totals as a 365 running total in an effort to try to identify any trends or cycles that may be lurking in the unseen data, and lo and behold there they are!

England & Wales Rainfall 365 day Running Totals 1 January 1932 - 30 September 2014 England & Wales Rainfall 365 day Running Totals 1 January 1932 – 30…

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Michele left a comment on suggestions but the surprise came later

Big Ar 2192 and flare X1.1 + CME


Note the Solex date: 14th October 2014, today is the 19th.

I looked at the Spaceweather archive for the 14th and of course the authors did not know what was about to happen

SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: High-latitude auroras are possible on Oct. 14th when Earth crosses through a fold in the heliospheric current sheet. This is called a “solar sector boundary crossing,” and NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when it occurs.



.It’s all coming undone – just as climate realists have been predicting for years.

Originally posted on STOP THESE THINGS:

angry german kid

The Germans went into wind power harder and faster than anyone else – and the cost of doing so is catching up with a vengeance. The subsidies have been colossal, the impacts on the electricity market chaotic and – contrary to the purpose of the policy – CO2 emissions are rising fast (see our post here).

Some 800,000 German homes have been disconnected from the grid – victims of what is euphemistically called “fuel poverty”. In response, Germans have picked up their axes and have headed to their forests in order to improve their sense of energy security – although foresters apparently take the view that this self-help measure is nothing more than blatant timber theft (see our post here).

One justification put up by the wind industry for the social and economic chaos caused by spiralling power costs was the claim that investment in wind power would…

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.OK, This is interesting. Allowing for the questionable use of the two stream approximation, what does this plot tell us?

Originally posted on Real Science:

Contrary to all the BS being spewed by top climate scientists, their own models shows that CO2 has almost no impact on climate. The graph below shows the greenhouse effect during mid-latitude summer for three scenarios, calculated using RRTM – the model used by NCAR in their climate and weather models

  1. Current atmosphere
  2. No CO2
  3. Double CO2

ScreenHunter_3765 Oct. 17 01.45

(Note the mid-troposphere hot spot)

At the surface, the amount of downwelling longwave radiation due to CO2 is less than 3%. Doubling CO2 would only increase the greenhouse effect by one third of one percent.

We constantly hear BS from people like Gavin claiming  that the CO2 contributes 20-30% to the greenhouse effect, but their own models show this is complete nonsense.

Call this scam off – there is no science behind it.

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Originally posted on Quixotes Last Stand:

We’ve all seen the article this week about the haulout of 35,000 walruses that congregated at Point Lay, Alaska, but in case you missed it, click here.  This is normal behaviour for walruses.  In fact the first recorded sighting of this sort of behaviour was made by an English expedition in 1604. They happen all over the world.  Nothing unusual about this at all.

Walrus haulout in Russia

Walrus haulout in Russia

Walrus haulout -- Icy Cape, Alaska

Walrus haulout — Icy Cape, Alaska

Cape Pierce, Alaska -- 2010

Cape Pierce, Alaska — 2010

In usual climate alarmist fashion, though, we must regularly wail and gnash our teeth over everything these days.  There is no such thing as natural or normal in the Land of Global Warming.  It’s all become one giant cluster …. well you know … in the typical alarmist mind.

This normal behaviour was twisted around to be a terrible event, of course caused by evil man.  The story recycles every…

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Paper confirming what we’ve been saying at the talkshop for a number of years – and the author Bob Irvine acknowledges our contribution too.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by Bob Irvine

A common refrain from the “settled science” community is that there is no known low sensitivity model that can produce either the total temperature rise or the general temperature profile of the last century.

This, however, is only the case if we assume that the efficacy of a GHG forcing is substantially the same as or slightly higher than the efficacy of a similar solar forcing. The lack of a successful low sensitivity model, then, should not come as too much of a surprise, as this is the position taken by all the IPCC reports, including the AR5.

There is, however, a strong physical case to be made for GHG efficacy being a lot lower than solar efficacy. The following paper published by the Wessex Institute of Technology outlines this case.

The abstract can be found at ;

A Comparison Of The Efficacy Of…

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Wind power: not worth a tinkers fart…

Originally posted on STOP THESE THINGS:

down wind

Canada’s Sun News was among the first news outfits worldwide to grasp the scale and scope of the great wind power fraud; and the associated harm inflicted on hard-working rural people. Exposing the wind industry for what it is, Sun has produced a truly ground-breaking documentary on how wind power outfits have fleeced power consumers for $billions, while happily destroying the lives hundreds of farming families across Ontario (see our post here).

The documentary, “Down Wind” went to air on 4 June and has sent the wind industry and its parasites into a panic stricken tail spin. Not used to an “untamed” media challenging their lies, treachery and deceit, the industry’s chief spin doctors have launched a bitter defence, replete with all the usual guilt-soaked waffle about giant fans “saving the planet from cataclysmic climate change”. Never mind that the wind industry has yet to produce a shred…

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Steyn versus Mann: norms of behavior

Posted: October 1, 2014 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics


This one will generate a lot of comments over at Climate Etc. Judy Curry has attracted Greg Laden’s displeasure for ‘liking’ a Mark Steyn tweet. He wants her to apologise. :)

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:

by Judith Curry

Mark Steyn’s latest blog post, and the ensuing tweets, prompts some reflections on norms of behavior for scientists versus political commentators.

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