Archive for the ‘solar system dynamics’ Category

Physorg has a story on a new reconstruction of volcanic activity from ice cores in Antarctica. It’s fairly strong on boilerplate but there is an interesting kicker near the end of the article:

A team of scientists led by Michael Sigl and Joe McConnell of Nevada’s Desert Research Institute (DRI) has completed the most accurate and precise reconstruction to date of historic volcanic sulfate emissions in the Southern Hemisphere.

“Both observations and model results show that not all eruptions lead to the same spatial pattern of sulfate deposition,” said Matthew Toohey from the German institute GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. He added, “Spatial variability in sulfate deposition means that the accuracy of volcanic sulfate reconstructions depends strongly on having a sufficient number of ice core records from as many different regions of Antarctica as possible.”
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tallbloke:

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OK, Have at it. :)

Originally posted on ScottishSceptic:

Greenhouse gases, are not so much “trapping” heat, as acting by “tapping” heat. They are acting as a vector (tap) enabling the flow of energy between the adiabatic controlled atmosphere and the IR radiation that eventually leaves the atmosphere. And it is because the adiabatic cooling reduces the temperature, that the apparent temperature of earth from space is cooled. This may reconcile the “Dragon slayers” with mainstream skeptic views.

Introduction: why colder means warmer

The warmer windows are warmer because to lose more heat.

The warmer windows are warmer because to lose more heat.

Talking through my post yesterday with a physicist (The CO2 Greenhouse effect is real (sometimes), it was clear I needed to spend a bit more time explaining what may appear counter intuitive. That is why when the apparent temperature of the earth from space decreases, that this must mean the planet is warmer.

This is easiest to explain using the analogy of a house. To…

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tallbloke:

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Too funny. Nice one Harold

Originally posted on Talking About the Weather:

A graph of the latest all-time record of Southern Hemisphere sea ice area, expressed as an anomaly, courtesy of The Cryosphere Today.

A graph of the latest all-time record of Southern Hemisphere sea ice area, expressed as an anomaly, courtesy of The Cryosphere Today.

Antarctic sea ice has hit its second all-time record maximum this week. The new record is 2.112 million square kilometers above normal. Until the weekend just past, the previous record had been 1.840 million square kilometers above normal, a mark hit on December 20, 2007, as I reported here, and also covered in my book.

Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, responded to e-mail questions and also spoke by telephone about the new record sea ice growth in the Southern Hemisphere, indicating that, somewhat counter-intuitively, the sea ice growth was specifically due to global warming.

Serreze

Serreze

“The primary reason for this is the nature of the circulation of the Southern Ocean  – water heated in high southern latitudes is carried equatorward, to be replaced…

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tallbloke:

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‘Steve Goddard’ defends his approach to checking the temperature data.

Originally posted on Real Science:

Every method has its advantages and disadvantages.

The USHCN database has more than 81,000,000 daily temperature readings going to 1895. It is a scientific obscenity to attempt to “adjust” that many records. Adjustments open the door to confirmation bias or outright fraud, and will invariably make the data less meaningful. I call this “tampering.”

There is no need to “adjust” the data. With a database that large, the distribution of error will be uniformly distributed between “too low” and “too high” and average out to zero. Many fields of science and engineering depend on this principle.

Use of anomalies completely hides baseline shifts, as NOAA has done.

Infilling is exactly the wrong thing to do, when station loss is biased towards loss of colder rural stations. It simply corrupts the temperature record further.

Gridding is just barely above the noise level in the US, because the USHCN stations are relatively…

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tallbloke:

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Judy Curry blogs about the official response from NOAA NCDC
“Nothing to see here, move along…”

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:

Our algorithm is working as designed. – NOAA NCDC

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More News On USHCN Temperature Adjustments

Posted: June 30, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics

tallbloke:

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Paul Homewood now finds that even the adjustments have been adjusted over the last couple of years. The temperature record is in a mess.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

1) First I have had a comment accusing me of lying. Will the accuser, who cowardly goes under the name “anonymous”, note that further accusations of lying will be earn him a ban.

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ScreenHunter_739 Jun. 29 15.03

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ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2.5/

The top line highlighted is USHCN Station Code 415429, which, as can be confirmed here, is Luling, Texas.

Such moronic comments, not to mention inclusion of the mandatory “cherry picking” and “denier”, rather sum up just weak some alarmist arguments have become.

2) Kansas

Returning to yesterday’s topic of adjustments in Kansas, I have plotted the annual adjustments for TOBS (Time of Observation Bias) at one of the stations there, Ashland.

They are downloaded from USHCN’s website here.

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Currently, 0.3F is being added to actual temperatures, whilst back in 1934, for instance, 1.1F was deducted. This makes a net adjustment of 1.4F.

This figure is way above NOAA’s previously published figure…

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Just How Bad Is The USHCN Data Tampering?

Posted: June 30, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics

tallbloke:

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Ohhh dear. Steve Goddard has found a big divergence between real and ‘estimated’ data in USHCN temperature ‘dataset’.

Originally posted on Real Science:

According to the USHCN V1 docs, they were done adjusting after 1990.

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ts.ushcn_anom25_diffs_urb-raw_pg.gif (650×502)

According to the V2 specs, they use the same TOBS algorithm as in V1. So it seems safe to assume that stations with no missing data after 1990 need no adjustments.

1990 was also the year when they started exponentially losing station data, and started doing a lot of infilling.

So I did an experiment. I calculated the post-1990 measured temperatures for all stations with no missing data, and the post 1990 temperatures for all of the fabricated data. The fake data is diverging from the real station data at a phenomenal 5.3 degrees per century.

ScreenHunter_693 Jun. 28 20.18

That huge spike in temperatures after 1990 which NCDC shows (and  I asked you to bookmark last night) is almost entirely due to fake data. Unbelievable.

ScreenHunter_680 Jun. 27 21.17

I’ve been talking about the discontinuity after 1990 for a long time, and there you…

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tallbloke:

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Here’s an interesting post originally published at Verity Jones’ excellent blog ‘Digging in the Clay’, from Peter Morecambe, AKA Galloping Camel. He has found a model which reproduces atmospheric profiles well, rather than just surface temperature and an approximate profile to the 100mb level.

Originally posted on Digging in the Clay:

Posted by Peter Morcombe, April 2014

“Climate Science” is a strange discipline that makes all kinds of claims that lack any valid mathematical basis. For example, the Arrhenius hypothesis:

“The selective absorption of the atmosphere is……………..not exerted by the chief mass of the air, but in a high degree by aqueous vapor and carbonic acid, which are present in the air in small quantities.”

I write about “Climate Science” because it is used to justify a political agenda that aims to “mitigate” CO2 regardless of negative impacts on billions of people. Even though most “Climate Scientists” get their pay checks from governments they are reluctant to engage with members of the public who express doubt about the need to reduce the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide.

Before making a post I reach out to experts in the field. For example, Tom Peterson (GHCN), Albert Klein Tank (KNMI), Richard Alley (Penn…

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I came across this paper today while searching for the heat capacity of Venus near surface atmosphere, which is actually an ocean-like (in thermodynamic terms) supercritical fluid. It presages Harry Dale Huffman’s ‘rediscovery’ of the lapse rate calculation by four decades. Another paper, much more recent, (Bolmatov et al 2013) contains some theory which raises yet more questions about the reasons for Venus’ high surface temperature. So, greenhouse due to radiative proerties of co2 as Sagan claimed, lapse rate due to gravity and pressure as Nikolov and Zeller maintain, or the thermal properties of supercritical fluids and geothermal energy having a hard time escaping the lower atmosphere? Let the debate recommence!

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Vulcão Russo: Klyuchevskaya Sopka

Posted: June 28, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics

tallbloke:

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Great images! H/T to Pam Sutherland

Originally posted on Cansei de Procurar:

Acho vulcões lindos e apavorantes!

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Achei esse especialmente interessante

Ee ainda está ativo! Última erupção foi em 2010, mas deu sinal de vida também em 2012 e 2013.

klyuchevskaya

Parece tão solitário em meio ao terreno.

Klyuchevskaya Sopka

Ključevskaja_za_východu_slunce

E olha a formação das nuvens ao redor dele!

Klyuchevskaya Sopka_nuvem

Enfim, perigoso mas lindo! Para quem gosta é um lugar bem inusitado para se visitar e não parece ser comum nos guias…rs

Obs: Interessante que nome de vulcões parecem sempre impossíveis de serem ditos… deve ser para parecerem mais grandiosos! Ou pq os que acho mais bonitos não estão aqui no Brasil… pq será?…rs

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tallbloke:

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Ohhh. Dear. Paul homewood finds the same sort of Shenanigans going on in Texas as Roger Andrews found in Australia. Several degrees added to temperature records…

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

As most will be aware, Steve Goddard has been running a series of posts about the large and unexplained adjustments being made to the US temperature record by NOAA.

For instance, his latest post is here.

So, I thought it might be worth looking in more detail at a few stations, to see what is going on. In Steve’s post, mentioned above, he links to the USHCN Final dataset for monthly temperatures, making the point that approx 40% of these monthly readings are “estimated”, as there is no raw data.

From this dataset, I picked the one at the top of the list, (which appears to be totally random), Station number 415429, which is Luling, Texas.

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http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ushcn_v2.5_monthly/monthly

(The file can be opened by Zip File).

Taking last year as an example, we can see that ten of the twelve months are tagged as “E”, i.e estimated…

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tallbloke:

Paul Homewood reviews Brian Fagan’s book on the LIA – Part 1

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

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It is widely accepted that the planet has warmed up by a degree or so since the end of the Little Ice Age about 150 years ago. We are regularly told that this increase in temperature has already caused widespread damage to the global environment, from dead polar bears and rising sea levels to extreme weather and famine. The implication is clear – the world was a much better place 200 years ago. But what was it like back then? Were conditions then really better than now?

There is an interesting book out called “The Little Ice Age” which describes life during those times. The author, Brian Fagan, is a Professor of Archaeology and I should add that it is clear from his book that he is a firm believer in AGW. It contains a good deal of useful information. (Everything that follows is based on the book).

A look…

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Thanks to commenter ‘psc3113′ for finding the concluding part of HC Russells’ paper on a lunar 19 year cycle in drought records, taken from The Queenslander (Brisbane, Qld. : 1866 – 1939)  Saturday 4 July 1896. At the conclusion of the article, the probably cause of the 19 year cycle identified is elucidated.

Periodicity of Good and Bad Seasons
MR. H. C. RUSSELL’S THEORY.
(Continued from last Week.)

Hurricanes Come in Droughts.
I should like it to be clearly understood that I do not mean ordinary hurricanes, which are as much parts of ordinary weather conditions in some parts of the world as our southerly winds are here. What I mean are extraordinary hurricanes, those that come at long intervals to terrify mankind by their power for destruction. These are connected with droughts, and, therefore should be discussed here. I had long since observed that the connection between the two was obvious enough sometimes, and during the past year I was reminded of it very often by the frequent reports of heavy gales met with by ships coming to this port, indicating great atmospheric energy. Then on the 3rd January, 1803, came the hurricane over the Tongan group of islands, and not one of the vessels in the harbour rode out the storm; every one of them was wrecked in the harbour before morning, and the wind was of such exceptional violence that after it was over the islands looked as if they had been bombarded.

Then I turned to storms on this coast, some of which were of terrible violence. And as I write, the 28th ‘May, we have the report of a terrible cyclone in America, by which three of the States, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana were damaged and the city of St. Louis wrecked. and 1300 people killed by falling buildings, and damage to property caused to the extent, estimated, of twenty million dollars; another fragment of the present D drought.

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‘Anders’, the proprietor of popular warmist blog ‘and then there’s physics’ issued me with a challenge when I commented on his post about the ‘little ice age recovery‘.

anders1

 

“Try doing some actual physics” he said. So I responded:

 

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While browsing Ian Wilson’s excellent Astro-Climate Connection blog, I found a graphic showing the coincidence of El Nino with the alignment of the Lunar line of nodes (declination cycle) and line of apse (orbital precession), with the Sun. I’ve taken the liberty of adding my Solar – El Nino hypothesis to it: the proposal is that El Nino tends to be initiated as the cycle starts to decline steeply and initiated again at solar minimum as it ‘bottom’s out’. I’ll reproduce Ian’s accompanying text below the break but to get to the point, here’s  the result:

enso-lunisolar

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tallbloke:

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Paul Homewood pulls together scattered media reports concerning the European Alps; putting the lie to claims of ‘unprecedented’ temperatures put about by the climate alarmists. Pierre Gosselin also reported on Schleuchter’s interview a couple of days ago.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

As many sources, including HH Lamb, have pointed out, back in the Bronze Age around 2000BC, the climate in the Alps was much warmer than now.

It is therefore no surprise to find direct evidence of this from geologist Dr. Christian Schlüchter, Professor emeritus at the University of Bern in Switzerland.

Larry Bell at Newsmax has the story:

Dr. Christian Schlüchter’s discovery of 4,000-year-old chunks of wood at the leading edge of a Swiss glacier was clearly not cheered by many members of the global warming doom-and-gloom science orthodoxy.

This finding indicated that the Alps were pretty nearly glacier-free at that time, disproving accepted theories that they only began retreating after the end of the little ice age in the mid-19th century. As he concluded, the region had once been much warmer than today, with “a wild landscape and wide flowing river.”

Dr. Schlüchter’s report might…

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I’m of the opinion that before getting into the complexity of numerical modelling, it’s wise to put considerable effort into trying to understand the physical processes at work in the climate system, and the origins of the energy flows that drive them. David Evans’ recent series of posts over at Jo Nova’s site have generated a lot of interesting discussion (despite being roundly ignored by Anthony Watts at WUWT), and I think we can shed some light on the ‘mysterious 11yr lag’ between solar input and climate response.

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An interesting series of posts has appeared at Jo Nova’s site. Jo’s husband, David Evans has done some competent analysis work to unravel the observed ~11 yr ‘delay’ in terrestrial climatic response to solar input. Of interest is the obervation that the solar polar magnetic fields are in the process of weakeneing and changing sign near solar maximum. It is suspected that this is connected with the delay. Head on over to read the posts and comment there as well as here.

Figure 6: The amplitudes of the empirical transfer function when the data is restricted in the ways marked (that is, using a subset of the data used to find Figure 5). The black line and the gray zone are as in Figure 5.

BIG NEWS Part I: Historic development — New Solar climate model coming
BIG NEWS Part II: For the first time – a mysterious notch filter found in the climate
BIG NEWS Part III: The notch means a delay
BIG NEWS part IV: A huge leap understanding the mysterious 11 year solar delay

I have made a comment, reproduced below the break.

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The Magna Carta – Clauses As Tweets

Posted: June 16, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in solar system dynamics

tallbloke:

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I joined in with a few of John’s tweets earlier today. Nice work mate.

Originally posted on Homo economicus' Weblog:

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One year from today will be the 800th anniversary of the Magna Carta. But what was this “Great Charter”, what did it say, and what meaning could this historical document have for us now? How well would a document written in 1215, to settle a dispute between a King and his Barons in a feudal Britain, weather the centuries to modern readers?

Beyond people talking about it, I had never read all 63 clauses of the Magna Carta. Reading a tweet by Tom Holland that everyone interpreted it to their own political biases I decided to not only read, to but tweet each clause as I did. Adding humour where 140 characters would allow.

Hours later I finished. Enjoy!

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If you are looking for the full text with a handy side historical context, recommend checking out this site here.

Article written by John Sargeant on Homo economicus’ Weblog

Follow

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A newly discovered planet pair orbiting a red dwarf a mere 13 light years from our solar system is in a near 2:5 orbital resonance. From National Geographic:

An international team of astronomers reports the discovery of two new planets orbiting Kapteyn’s star, a nearby red dwarf with a long history. One of its newly discovered worlds, dubbed Kapteyn b, circles the star at the right distance to allow seas to survive on its surface, where water is seen as a key ingredient of life as we know it.

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