Archive for the ‘Uncertainty’ Category

Reblogged from Euan’s excellent site, Energy Matters.

“The Scottish Government’s targets are for renewable sources to generate the equivalent of 100 per cent of Scotland’s gross annual electricity consumption by 2020.” What will the consequences be for the Scottish People?

This post models Scottish electricity production and consumption in 2020 and compares this with 2012. It is assumed that Scotland’s two nuclear power stations remain operational in 2020. The reader is asked to always recall that the numbers are based on models and the conclusions therefore carry uncertainty. The consequences of this energy policy may be:

  • A large electricity surplus of about 15 TWh may be produced in 2020, worth about £2.5 billion at 17p / KWh.
  • There are currently many ideas but no certainty about where this surplus might go. It seems possible that a large part may simply be wasted.
  • Assuming that marine renewables remain negligible and hydro output remains unchanged in 2020 then the bulk of the expansion in renewables to meet the target will most likely be met by wind that will require a 5 fold increase relative to 2012.
  • In an independent Scotland the subsidy payments currently made to renewables companies by 63 million UK citizens would fall pro rata on the shoulders of 5.3 million Scottish citizens. This, combined with the 5 fold increase in wind capacity may mean a 25 fold increase in the level of renewable subsidy born by Scottish electricity consumers. Electricity bills may double.

In summary, the Scottish Government energy plan may result in a large electricity surplus that at present has nowhere to go, the number of wind turbines may increase 5 fold and electricity bills may double.

(more…)

Image

Image US Air Force

Under heading I didn’t know that there is a curious lack of sanctions so far on the stockpile of cold war era high thrust RD-180 and NK-33 rocket engines

Actually this is funny, Obama, Camaroon and the band pile onto Putin, in my view all damn silly, stop making trouble yet there we are US spy satellites, Mars stuff and goodness knows what else using Russian main engines.

“The Curiosity Rover, for example, departed for Mars atop an Atlas V for its …” madeinalabama site

And guess what there are long faces, talk of ‘we can design a new engine in 4 years given enough money’. Yeah right given only Soviet era perfected for that particular fuel combination.

Russian news site

Russia to Continue Space Rocket Engines Deliveries to US Despite Sanctions

(more…)

Whoa, what is going on?

GWPF have an amusing new story based on a Fox News article dated 20th July

In the run-up to the U.N. climate conference (COP20) in Lima in December, Peru’s government just rolled back environmental regulations in an effort to boost mining.

http://www.thegwpf.org/ahead-of-u-n-climate-talks-peru-slashes-environmental-regulations/

Reuters have a new story dated 23rd July

Peru’s Humala replaces prime minister amid political scandal

(Reuters) – Peru’s President Ollanta Humala said on Tuesday he is replacing his prime minister following an embarrassing political scandal that marks the start of his sixth cabinet and his third year in office.

(more…)

H/T to ‘intrepid Wanders‘ for this repost from the Uni of Reading meteorology section. No settled science here, and lab model derived from far IR wavebands used in climate models and energy budget diagrams rests on a bunch of assumptions. Who knew? Obviously not Trenberth, who has no error bounds on his energy budget. So along with cloud microphysics getting the predicted absorption of energy by clouds wrong by a large margin, we have big uncertainty in the spectral absorption lines of water vapour. Ho hum. Business-as-usual in climate science land.

Water vapour continuum

  In addition to the spectral lines, it has long been recognized that water vapour possesses a continuum absorption which varies relatively slowly with wavelength and pervades the entire IR and microwave spectral region. This has a marked impact on the Earth’s radiation balance with consequences for understanding present day weather and climate and predicting climate change. It is also important for remote sensing of the Earth and its atmosphere.

  Discovered by Hettner (1918) as a low-frequency component of water vapour absorption in atmospheric transparency window 8-14 mcr, this phenomenon remained unexplained for 20 years, until Elsasser (1938) suggested that the continuum is an accumulated far-wingcontribution of strong water vapour spectral lines from neighbour bands. This hypothesis was generally accepted until the end of 70th years when the strong quadratic pressure dependence of the continuum absorption (which could not be explained by Lorentz (1906) line profile) as well as the strong negative temperature dependence have been detected (Bignell et al.,1963;Penner and Varanasi,1967). In this connection Penner and Varanasi (1967) and Varanasi et al. (1968) suggested that the main contribution to the self-continuum could be caused not by far wings of water monomer lines but rather by water dimers. Similar assumption was made also by Viktorova and Zhevakin (1967) for microwave spectral region.

(more…)

image

From the Guardian

Pipes and pylons operator says failure to invest more in local gas production would leave country 90% dependent on imports

The price of electricity could double over the next two decades, according to forecasts published on Thursday by the National Grid, the company responsible for keeping Britain’s lights on.

The current price of wholesale electricity is below £50 per megawatt hour but could soar to over £100 by 2035 under a “high case” example used in the Grid’s UK Future Energy Scenarios report.

(more…)

From the LA Times:

Yellowstone National Park road melts into ‘soupy mess’
by MAYA SRIKRISHNAN 11-7-14

Extreme heat from surrounding thermal areas has created a hot spot in Yellowstone National Park, melting a portion of a road and causing temporary closures in the park during the peak summer tourist season.

yellowstone-melted-road

The more than 3-mile-long Firehole Lake Drive, an offshoot of the park’s Grand Loop Road located between the Old Faithful geyser and Madison Junction, is closed because melting asphalt has turned it into a “soupy mess,” said park spokesman Dan Hottle.

(more…)

teacup-stormReuters news  geophysics-data agency:

(Reuters) – Coastal flooding along the densely populated Eastern Seaboard of the United States has surged in recent years, a Reuters analysis has found.

The analysis was undertaken as part of a broader examination of rising sea levels Reuters plans to publish later this year.

For its analysis, Reuters collected more than 25 million hourly tide-gauge readings from nearly 70 sites on the Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts and compared them to NOAA flood thresholds.

As many Americans question the causes and even the reality of climate change, increased flooding is already posing a major challenge for local governments in much of the United States.
[sure will in landlocked States!]

And goes on about climate change and sea level rise and probably being wound up by vested interests.

(more…)

H/T to talkshop contributor Wayne for this short piece from the physics of sailing blog which tells us that near surface windspeeds have fallen over the last 30 years. However, the evidence in a presentation by Hartwig Volz on seawater emissivity I came across yesterday apparently contradicts this. I’ve becalmed-yachtadded a couple of the relevant plot’s from that below the short article, but do take a look at the whole pdf slideshow. The discussion of wind speed is highly relevant to the whole climate debate, including the fundamentals of ocean-atmosphere interaction, energy balance and surface warming. Recall that Hans Jelbring’s thesis was entitled ‘Wind Controlled Climate‘ . 

The Wind is Dying

Wind speed has significantly decreased in the 29 years from 1979 to 2008. In extreme cases, the wind decrease was a significant 15%. More specifically, the wind decreased at 73% of measuring stations which were 10 meters above the surface (about mast height for many smaller sailboats). The measurements were mostly from Europe, but also from the United States, China and Russia.

(more…)

letour

Image courtesy of Printers Inc. They have prints on sale. Click for more info

 

I love the Nora Batty style wrinkled stockings on the demure waitress. :)

I got the snap below the break in Otley. It was a reet grand day out, marred only by the local favourite crashing 500m short of the finish line in Harrogate, or ‘Arrergut’ as it’s pronounced round ‘ere.

 

(more…)

From Benny Peiser by email:

Europe’s Energy Security At Risk From Green & Russian Lobbies

Russian-bear-cartoonHow far will Russian President Vladimir Putin go to stop fracking in Europe? Tint his thinning hair an eco-friendly color? According to NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen, Russia’s myriad intelligence agencies are working directly with European environmental groups to fund anti-fracking campaigns. Putin is doing this to slow the spread of the U.S. shale revolution across the Atlantic so Russia can hold on to its monopoly of the European natural gas market. Europe’s energy insecurity – its dependence on Russian gas – has proven to be Putin’s favorite tool of geopolitical blackmail. Putin can continue to funnel rubles to Europe’s environmental activist groups and hope to slow the spread of the shale revolution. But Russian dominance of the European gas market is on borrowed time. –William F. Shughart II, Forbes, 4 July 2014

(more…)

Excerpts from David Rose’s Mail on Sunday article, plus a couple of tweets from Richard Betts:

BBC spends £500k to ask 33,000 Asians 5,000 miles from UK what they think of climate change: Corporation savaged for ‘astonishing’ campaign survey on global warming
David Rose – Sun 29th June 2014

bbc-greenpeace-medThe BBC has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds of taxpayers’ money asking 33,000 people in Asian countries how climate change is affecting them.

The £519,000 campaigning survey by little-known BBC Media Action is designed to persuade the world to adopt more hard-line policies to combat global warming.

It was immediately condemned yesterday as a flagrant abuse of the Corporation’s rules on impartiality and ‘a spectacular waste of money’ by a top academic expert.

Every year, BBC Media Action gets £22.2 million from the taxpayer via the Foreign Office and Department for International Development.

BBC Media Action has a £40 million annual budget, and the proportion not funded by the taxpayer is paid  by the European Union, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US government.

(more…)

Andromeda galaxy [credit: Wikipedia]

Andromeda galaxy
[credit: Wikipedia]

Once again observation clashes with theory. This time it’s dwarf galaxies putting a spanner in the works of the ‘standard model’, says an international team of researchers.

“When we compared simulations … to what is observed by astronomers, we found a very substantial mismatch,” the lead author said.

(more…)

oldbrew:

.
.
Climate science – calling it wrong since 19??


.
 

Originally posted on Real Science:

Ten climate forecasts which demonstrate that the world’s leading government climate experts have absolutely no clue what they are talking about.

NASA’s top experts said that burning fossil fuels would trigger an ice age.

ScreenHunter_390 Jun. 08 22.44

U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming

Snow is a thing of the past.

ScreenHunter_391 Jun. 08 22.46

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – Environment – The Independent

Arctic ice free by 2000

ScreenHunter_392 Jun. 08 22.49

The Changing Face of the Arctic – Article – NYTimes.com

New ice age coming

ScreenHunter_05 May. 07 09.01ScreenHunter_06 May. 07 09.01The Windsor Star – Google News Archive Search

Manhattan underwater by 2008

ScreenHunter_393 Jun. 08 22.54Stormy weather – Salon.com

Arctic ice free by 2013

ScreenHunter_394 Jun. 08 22.57

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′

Antarctica will soon be the only place to live.

ScreenHunter_395 Jun. 08 22.59

Why Antarctica will soon be the only place to live – literally – Environment – The Independent

Skiing is doomed

ScreenHunter_396 Jun. 08 23.01

Skiing is ‘doomed’ … so enjoy it while it lasts…

View original 55 more words

Big Bang [image credit: wikipedia]

Big Bang [image credit: wikipedia]

More ‘settled science’ on the ropes.

Quote: ‘These results are consistent with what would be expected from ordinary geometry if the Universe was not expanding, and are in contradiction with the drastic dimming of surface brightness predicted by the expanding Universe hypothesis.’

But Wikipedia says : ‘The Big Bang theory is the prevailing cosmological model for the early development of the universe. The key idea is that the universe is expanding.

(more…)

From the Telegraph:

woodfire-cavemanTaxing issue for king coal
Drax has fallen victim to the Government’s efforts to clean up the way we generate energy in this country. The majority of electricity in the UK still comes from our fleet of coal-fired power stations, of which Drax is one of the biggest in Europe. However, that is all set to change as the Government steadily increases the amount of tax it charges from this year on power generated by burning coal. The Government is trying to shift to cleaner and more modern gas-fired power stations. In order to survive, Drax has drawn up plans to convert its coal-fired generators to run on vast amounts of wood chip, or biomass.

(more…)

Clouds [image credit: Wikipedia / Reprise records]

Clouds [image credit: Wikipedia / Reprise records]

In the late Sixties Joni Mitchell wrote the Grammy Award winning song ‘Both Sides Now’ that included the line:
‘I’ve looked at clouds from both sides now’.

[ Lyrics and link to the Judy Collins version that won the Grammy here ]

Nowadays the climate controversy is closely linked to the question of cloud feedbacks: are they net positive or net negative, i.e. does the reflection of incoming sunlight play a bigger part than the alleged ‘heat-trapping’ effect of water vapour – or vice versa?

The Hockeyshtick reports the latest findings here

(more…)

oldbrew:

.
.
‘The ocean…is by far the dominant reservoir of climate system heat changes’.

An exclusive from Climate Etc.

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:

by Roger A. Pielke Sr., Richard T. McNider, and John Christy

The thing we’ve all forgotten is the heat storage of the ocean – it’s a thousand times greater than the atmosphere and the surface.  – James Lovelock

View original 1,636 more words

CO2 chart [image credit: Wikipedia]

CO2 chart
[image credit: Wikipedia]

Well-known climate expert and global warming sceptic (apologies for the cliche) Dr Roy Spencer has by his own admission stirred up a hornet’s nest here.

It’s a list of ‘skeptical arguments’ (US spelling) that he considers to be erroneous. Without further ado: enjoy (?).

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/skeptical-arguments-that-dont-hold-water/

Update: some Talkshop commenters seriously question nos. 6 and 7 on the list.

oldbrew:

.
.
Where next for sunspots? These magnetic phenomena may be dancing to a tune, but we’re still not sure what it is.

Originally posted on Inform The Pundits!:

NASA: April 16th, 2012 prominence

Another new solar sunspot record peak of 73.2 was set for Cycle 24 last month. It smashed the old 68.9 record peak set the previous month.

In a big surprise, it’s over six spots higher than the first sunspot peak set in early 2012 and will probably go up. A secondary peak that much above the first is almost unheard of.

The new sunspot peak is unusual for two conflicting reasons:

  1. The secondary peak is higher than the first
  2. Current physics suggests the solar cycle should be weakening

Conflicting signals coming from the sun muddles how it might affect earth’s future climate. A more active sun will have a warming effect. A less active sun, predicted by most solar physicists, will have a cooling effect.

The sun hasn’t decided what it wants to do yet.

The Royal Observatory of Belgium’s Solar Information Data Center (SIDC)…

View original 548 more words

Satellite view of the Great Lakes [image credit: Wikipedia]

Satellite view of the Great Lakes
[image credit: Wikipedia]

There’s never been a winter quite like it on the Great Lakes, but unlike lurid headlines about melting ice in the Arctic (remember those?) this story gets only modest matter-of-fact coverage in the international media.
No prizes for guessing why.

‘An extremely cold winter left most of Lake Superior frozen over’

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/shipping-season-begins-today-marking-latest-start-ever-1.2616792

Any amount of convoluted excuses and upside down logic may be put forward as a smokescreen by ‘warmists’ but the fact is, it was a historically cold winter in that region.

(more…)