Archive for the ‘volcanos’ Category

Bardarbunga volcano alert in Iceland

Posted: August 20, 2014 by oldbrew in Earthquakes, Forecasting, volcanos

A previous Icelandic volcano  [image credit: BBC]

A previous Icelandic volcano
[image credit: BBC]

BBC reports:

“Intense seismic activity” began at the volcano on 16 August, and there was a strong earthquake in the region early on Monday, the met office said.

“This is the strongest earthquake measured in the region since 1996.

“Presently there are no signs of eruption, but it cannot be excluded that the current activity will result in an explosive subglacial eruption, leading to an outburst flood and ash emission,” the met office said, adding that the situation was being monitored.

BBC News – Iceland raises Bardarbunga volcano alert to orange.

The risk level to the aviation industry has been raised to orange, the second-highest level, the met office said.

Update 23rd August : Volcano alert level raised to red

*** Update 24th August: Alert level reduced to orange. ***

Update 29 August** Warning A fissure eruption has started north of Dynjujökull.** (Richard Holle)

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LATEST NEWS: http://icelandreview.com/news/bardarbunga

From the LA Times:

Yellowstone National Park road melts into ‘soupy mess’
by MAYA SRIKRISHNAN 11-7-14

Extreme heat from surrounding thermal areas has created a hot spot in Yellowstone National Park, melting a portion of a road and causing temporary closures in the park during the peak summer tourist season.

yellowstone-melted-road

The more than 3-mile-long Firehole Lake Drive, an offshoot of the park’s Grand Loop Road located between the Old Faithful geyser and Madison Junction, is closed because melting asphalt has turned it into a “soupy mess,” said park spokesman Dan Hottle.

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Physorg has a story on a new reconstruction of volcanic activity from ice cores in Antarctica. It’s fairly strong on boilerplate but there is an interesting kicker near the end of the article:

A team of scientists led by Michael Sigl and Joe McConnell of Nevada’s Desert Research Institute (DRI) has completed the most accurate and precise reconstruction to date of historic volcanic sulfate emissions in the Southern Hemisphere.

“Both observations and model results show that not all eruptions lead to the same spatial pattern of sulfate deposition,” said Matthew Toohey from the German institute GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. He added, “Spatial variability in sulfate deposition means that the accuracy of volcanic sulfate reconstructions depends strongly on having a sufficient number of ice core records from as many different regions of Antarctica as possible.”
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From 16th May 2014 CERN newswire, I missed it

CERN Experiment Sheds New Light on Cloud Formation

Geneva, 16 May 2014 – In a paper published in the journal Science today, CERN’s* CLOUD** experiment has shown that biogenic vapours emitted by trees and oxidised in the atmosphere have a significant impact on the formation of clouds, thus helping to cool the planet. These biogenic aerosols are what give forests seen from afar their characteristic blue haze. The CLOUD study shows that the oxidised biogenic vapours bind with sulphuric acid to form embryonic particles which can then grow to become the seeds on which cloud droplets can form. This result follows previous measurements from CLOUD showing that sulphuric acid alone could not form new particles in the atmosphere as had been previously assumed.

“This is a very important result,” said CLOUD spokesperson Jasper Kirkby,…

http://www.interactions.org/cms/?pid=1033860

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Influence of Geothermal Heat on past and present climate

Image

Ben Wouters
Zuid Scharwoude, februari 2014, V 1.4
Introduction.

Current climate science asserts that the sun does not provide enough energy to explain our current pleasant surface temperatures. The Effective temperature for a planet at our distance from the sun without atmosphere is calculated as ~255K, and the atmosphere is supposedly adding ~33K to arrive at the average surface temperature of ~288K for planet Earth. (1)

Interestingly our Moon is such a planet. It reflects less solar radiation than Earth, but its average surface temperature is a mere 197K, as measured by the Diviner Project. (2)

So the assertion that solar energy is not able to explain our surface temperatures is correct, but the temperature difference to explain is at least ~90K. (3)

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Nature playing hardball

Posted: February 2, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in Tides, volcanos

Cornwall UK today

image

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Slide from Shariv lecture

Slide from Shariv lecture

Prof. Nir J. Shaviv, who is a member of the Racah Institute of Physics in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. According to PhysicaPlus: “…his research interests cover a wide range of topics in astrophysics, most are related to the application of fluid dynamics, radiation transfer or high energy physics to a wide range of objects – from stars and compact objects to galaxies and the early universe. His studies on the possible relationships between cosmic rays intensity and the Earth’s climate, and the Milky Way’s Spiral Arms and Ice Age Epochs on Earth were widely echoed in the scientific literature, as well as in the general press.” — From Nir’s blog [1]

Nir gave a lecture at EIKE (Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie [2]) January 2013. In the lecture at EIKE he flows through some of what is wrong with IPCC assertions and models, then drops in extraterrestrial, solar wind, galactic cosmic rays, showing some neat plots. Asserts that solar accounts for a major proportion of whatever temperature change has gone on and how IPCC omit critical factors. Models are over-sensitive.

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uksnowice

From the Talkshop’s favourite weatherman at the BBC Paul Hudson comes news of a possible run of colder weather and climate for the UK. This will be no surprise for talkshop regulars, where we have been predicting a solar slowdown for a few 11y cycles since the blog started in 2009. Nice to get some confirming support from Paul and good to see him sticking his neck out on a 20+ year weather prediction.

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906.

Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810.

Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s.

Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers.

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Last night I attended a lecture at the university’s chemistry dept. by Susan Solomon, IPCC lead author and architect of the Montreal Protocol on CFC’s. The subject was:

Surprises in Radiative Forcing: What Chemicals Are Changing Our Recent Climate?

solomon

In it she outlined an explanation for the ‘hiatus’ or ‘standstill’ in global warming since around the turn of the millennium. I’ll give only a brief synopsis here, since the vid I made of the whole lecture is uploading on youtube and will be added to the post soon. Basically, Prof Soloman says the hiatus is due to a combination of two factors: A reduction in stratospheric water vapour concentrations, and the effect of volcanic SO2 based aerosols getting into the stratosphere from smaller than expected volcanoes.

I think the second of these is pretty dubious myself, but hey, she’s supposed to be the expert.

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Figure 1

Pinatubo produced the 2nd largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century after Mt Katmai decided to vanish in 1912, heard 1500 miles away.

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Reblogged from GWPF

Before And After The Temperature Standstill

  • Date: 11/06/2013 Dr David Whitehouse

The absence of any significant change in the global annual average temperature over the past 16 years has become one of the most discussed topics in climate science. It has certainly focused the debate about the relative importance of greenhouse gas forcing of the climate versus natural variability.

In all this discussion what happened to global temperature immediately before the standstill is often neglected. Many assume that since the recent warming period commenced – about 1980 – global temperature rose until 1998 and then the surface temperature at least got stuck. Things are however not that simple, and far more interesting.

As Steve Goddard has interestingly pointed out recently using RSS data going back to 1990 the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 had a very important effect on global temperatures.

screenhunter_131-jun-09-06-19

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Remains of Mt Katmai, Katmai Caldera taken from the air.
Image courtesy Pam McPherson (enhanced TNC)

The most massive volcanic eruption of the 20th century came during June 1912 in Alaska, explosive, heard 1,500 miles away. A good deal of the mountain vanished.

Mt Katmai is one of several peaks making up the Novarupta.

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Doug writes he is not a computer man. Well Doug a computer is just a robot, a tool following our instructions, exactly, to err is human, jolly good idea too because Artificial Intelligence is and has been a dead end, damagingly so. The reason is simple enough, it is without what Doug uses, his eyes, and brain, he goes places does and experiences, reacts to changes. It’s actually the noise, the randomness which breaks a precise binary way, always identical to variation and difference, no discovery.

The genetics of reproduction is doubly random, part tried and tested, part variation. Double because a second stage kicks in, won’t go into this here.

Clone. Loved on battlefields, find the weakness, hey look, they are predictable, all the same.

At the same time eg. humans are all the same.

Follow the same path, sheep, guidance and that I am trying to avoid.

Doug writes: -

The smoothing in data seems to be asked only after the compilation is questioned: the spaghetti graphs that arrived after Mann was questioned, remember, showed that what we thought (were shown) as a simple trend was, in fact, a mess with a huge variability that disappeared after statistical fiddling. (Or appeared to disappear for promotional purposes) I don’t know any-more about the ice core data, or the CO2 data.

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According to Jaworowski there was cherry picking by Callendar as above and he gives reference.

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From the Chronicle Journal:

cloudVictoria Ahearn, The Canadian PressFriday, April 5, 2013 – 06:00TORONTO – American paleoecologist Dr. Robert Dull believes he’s pretty much solved the mystery behind a catastrophic global climate change event from the sixth century.As the new History series “Perfect Storms” shows, Dull has found solid circumstantial evidence that an eruption at El Salvador’s Lake Ilopango volcano was the cause of the so-called Dust Veil of AD 356, when a thick dust and ash cloud over the Northern Hemisphere cooled parts of the Earth and led to millions of deaths.

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Many thanks to Alan Bond for sending in details of this seismic activity. Tectonic plates pulling apart off the north Icelandic coast have produced a swarm of earthquakes, including a 5.5 rattler, felt across the north of the country. Monitoring website earthquake report has this:

Update 10:49 UTC : The swarm continues and the most recently listed earthquakes had a Magnitude of M4.3 and M4.2. The number of earthquakes during the last 48 hours has risen to 484 ! The hypocenter depth is mainly varying in 3 layers, one at only a few hundred meter, another at 1.1 km and the last one at 20 km.
Most of the epicenters are located in an area of 15 to 30 km from Grimsey.
There have been earthquakes cycles of a similar nature in 1969, 1974, 1980, 1986, 1994 and 2002. The cycles were all from a few days up to several weeks.

grimsey-quakes

This event follows a recent report that volcano Hekla in the south of Iceland is restless:

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2282753/Mount-Etna-Psychedelic-satellite-image-volcano-erupting-space.html

Etna Observatory. Etna is in major erruption.

The Forge of Vulcan by Lombardo -The hermitage, St Petersburg- (I hope health and safety aren't looking)

The Forge of Vulcan by Lombardo
-The hermitage, St Petersburg-
(I hope Health and Safety aren’t looking)

Observatory reports are dry. Lot of news content around too.

“On the evening of 23 February 2013, a new episode of lava fountaining occurred at Etna’s New Southeast Crater, two-and-a-half days after the previous episode from the same crater, and 36 hours after the latest eruptive episode in the summit area, which took place at the Bocca Nuova on the morning of 22 February. The 23 Febriary paroxysm was more intense than its predecessors, with lava fountains up to 600-800 m tall, and an eruption cloud charged with ash and scoriae that was blown northeastward by strong wind, whereas the lava volume this time is smaller than that of the previous episodes. The culminating phase of this episode lasted less than one hour. A more detailed report will be posted here shortly.”

http://www.ct.ingv.it/ Some has English translations.

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H/T to Michele Casati who flagged up this paper on suggestions. I don’t have time to read it all through but it looks interesting, and hopefully people with knowledge of wavelet analysis might take a look and report their views. Looks to me like Joanna Haigh might start re-educating herself with papers like this.

ssn-wavelet

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Fred Pearce, the journalist who covered the Lisbon workshop and got into hot water along with me for ‘Gavin-gate’, has a new piece in the New Scientist. He’s still very worried in the end about Trenberth’s mythical ‘missing heat’ coming back out of the ocean, but the first half of the article raises a couple of interesting discussion points. Bold is mine near the end of the excerpt:

The UK’s Met Office has downgraded its forecast for warming at the Earth’s surface over the next five years. Headlines this week announced that global warming is “at a standstill”. Climate sceptics crowed. But the Met Office said the outlook for later in the century remains unchanged. New Scientist looks at the facts.

Has global warming stopped, or hasn’t it?
Atmospheric warming has certainly slowed greatly in the past decade. The Met Office says this appears to be due to natural cycles that are counteracting the warming effect of greenhouse gases. After incorporating new analysis of natural cycles into its latest model of atmospheric and ocean circulation, it has concluded that we are in for a few more years of little change.

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My thanks to Ned Nikolov, who has alerted me to a new paper by Ben Santer et al entitled ‘Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature’. The co-author list reads like a who’s who of the senior echelon of the IPCC warmers: Susan Solomon, Tom Wigley, Julie Arblaster and Peter Stott, to name a few among them.

So what do the climate Cluesos have to tell us this time? Have they now successfully identified a human influence on the climate system? The Fun thing about the title is that it is immediately contradicted by the abstract, in which we find this telling passage:

clueso

Inspector Clueso on the trail

We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the finger- print) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise.

Watch the pea, very, very carefully. (more…)