Volcanic cooling, turbidity

Figure 1

Pinatubo produced the 2nd largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century after Mt Katmai decided to vanish in 1912, heard 1500 miles away.

David Whitehouse: Before And After The Temperature Standstill

Reblogged from GWPF

Before And After The Temperature Standstill

• Date: 11/06/2013 Dr David Whitehouse

The absence of any significant change in the global annual average temperature over the past 16 years has become one of the most discussed topics in climate science. It has certainly focused the debate about the relative importance of greenhouse gas forcing of the climate versus natural variability.

In all this discussion what happened to global temperature immediately before the standstill is often neglected. Many assume that since the recent warming period commenced – about 1980 – global temperature rose until 1998 and then the surface temperature at least got stuck. Things are however not that simple, and far more interesting.

As Steve Goddard has interestingly pointed out recently using RSS data going back to 1990 the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 had a very important effect on global temperatures.

Persistence of atmospheric dust, Novarupta, Mt Katmai eruption 1912

Remains of Mt Katmai, Katmai Caldera taken from the air.
Image courtesy Pam McPherson (enhanced TNC)

The most massive volcanic eruption of the 20th century came during June 1912 in Alaska, explosive, heard 1,500 miles away. A good deal of the mountain vanished.

Mt Katmai is one of several peaks making up the Novarupta.

Doug Proctor: The rough and smooth of data as seen from afar

Doug writes he is not a computer man. Well Doug a computer is just a robot, a tool following our instructions, exactly, to err is human, jolly good idea too because Artificial Intelligence is and has been a dead end, damagingly so. The reason is simple enough, it is without what Doug uses, his eyes, and brain, he goes places does and experiences, reacts to changes. It’s actually the noise, the randomness which breaks a precise binary way, always identical to variation and difference, no discovery.

The genetics of reproduction is doubly random, part tried and tested, part variation. Double because a second stage kicks in, won’t go into this here.

Clone. Loved on battlefields, find the weakness, hey look, they are predictable, all the same.

At the same time eg. humans are all the same.

Follow the same path, sheep, guidance and that I am trying to avoid.

Doug writes: -

The smoothing in data seems to be asked only after the compilation is questioned: the spaghetti graphs that arrived after Mann was questioned, remember, showed that what we thought (were shown) as a simple trend was, in fact, a mess with a huge variability that disappeared after statistical fiddling. (Or appeared to disappear for promotional purposes) I don’t know any-more about the ice core data, or the CO2 data.

Callendar, Jaworowski and Beck, who is believable?

According to Jaworowski there was cherry picking by Callendar as above and he gives reference.

Robert Dull: Has ‘Perfect Storms’ solved AD 536 mystery?

From the Chronicle Journal:

Victoria Ahearn, The Canadian PressFriday, April 5, 2013 – 06:00TORONTO – American paleoecologist Dr. Robert Dull believes he’s pretty much solved the mystery behind a catastrophic global climate change event from the sixth century.As the new History series “Perfect Storms” shows, Dull has found solid circumstantial evidence that an eruption at El Salvador’s Lake Ilopango volcano was the cause of the so-called Dust Veil of AD 356, when a thick dust and ash cloud over the Northern Hemisphere cooled parts of the Earth and led to millions of deaths.

Iceland earthquake swarm: 484 earthquakes in less than 48 hours

Many thanks to Alan Bond for sending in details of this seismic activity. Tectonic plates pulling apart off the north Icelandic coast have produced a swarm of earthquakes, including a 5.5 rattler, felt across the north of the country. Monitoring website earthquake report has this:

Update 10:49 UTC : The swarm continues and the most recently listed earthquakes had a Magnitude of M4.3 and M4.2. The number of earthquakes during the last 48 hours has risen to 484 ! The hypocenter depth is mainly varying in 3 layers, one at only a few hundred meter, another at 1.1 km and the last one at 20 km.
Most of the epicenters are located in an area of 15 to 30 km from Grimsey.
There have been earthquakes cycles of a similar nature in 1969, 1974, 1980, 1986, 1994 and 2002. The cycles were all from a few days up to several weeks.

This event follows a recent report that volcano Hekla in the south of Iceland is restless:

Italian elections and papal resignation has upset the underworld.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2282753/Mount-Etna-Psychedelic-satellite-image-volcano-erupting-space.html

Etna Observatory. Etna is in major erruption.

The Forge of Vulcan by Lombardo
-The hermitage, St Petersburg-
(I hope Health and Safety aren’t looking)

Observatory reports are dry. Lot of news content around too.

“On the evening of 23 February 2013, a new episode of lava fountaining occurred at Etna’s New Southeast Crater, two-and-a-half days after the previous episode from the same crater, and 36 hours after the latest eruptive episode in the summit area, which took place at the Bocca Nuova on the morning of 22 February. The 23 Febriary paroxysm was more intense than its predecessors, with lava fountains up to 600-800 m tall, and an eruption cloud charged with ash and scoriae that was blown northeastward by strong wind, whereas the lava volume this time is smaller than that of the previous episodes. The culminating phase of this episode lasted less than one hour. A more detailed report will be posted here shortly.”

http://www.ct.ingv.it/ Some has English translations.

Tatiana Barlyaeva: External forcing on air-surface temperature: Geographical distribution of sensitive climate zones

H/T to Michele Casati who flagged up this paper on suggestions. I don’t have time to read it all through but it looks interesting, and hopefully people with knowledge of wavelet analysis might take a look and report their views. Looks to me like Joanna Haigh might start re-educating herself with papers like this.

Fred Pearce: Has Global Warming Ground to a Halt?

Fred Pearce, the journalist who covered the Lisbon workshop and got into hot water along with me for ‘Gavin-gate’, has a new piece in the New Scientist. He’s still very worried in the end about Trenberth’s mythical ‘missing heat’ coming back out of the ocean, but the first half of the article raises a couple of interesting discussion points. Bold is mine near the end of the excerpt:

The UK’s Met Office has downgraded its forecast for warming at the Earth’s surface over the next five years. Headlines this week announced that global warming is “at a standstill”. Climate sceptics crowed. But the Met Office said the outlook for later in the century remains unchanged. New Scientist looks at the facts.

Has global warming stopped, or hasn’t it?
Atmospheric warming has certainly slowed greatly in the past decade. The Met Office says this appears to be due to natural cycles that are counteracting the warming effect of greenhouse gases. After incorporating new analysis of natural cycles into its latest model of atmospheric and ocean circulation, it has concluded that we are in for a few more years of little change.