Met Office, do I see a prediction?

Prof Sutton said: “Blocking episodes can persist for several weeks, leading to extended cold periods in winter.

“As well as such natural processes, we know that weather across the UK and Europe is being affected by higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. For example, rainfall events have become more intense and this is quite likely linked to a warmer climate. There is also some evidence linking the record low amounts of Arctic sea ice to UK weather, but this evidence is not yet conclusive either way.”

– The Scotsman “Stand by for 10 years of rain-soaked summers”

IS?

The much talked about Met Office one day ramble through the brambles was yesterday, media are bleeding little scratchings.

Well Mr Sutton, blocking can occur any time and that is not your field.

Volcanic cooling, turbidity

Figure 1

Pinatubo produced the 2nd largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century after Mt Katmai decided to vanish in 1912, heard 1500 miles away.

David Whitehouse: Before And After The Temperature Standstill

Reblogged from GWPF

Before And After The Temperature Standstill

• Date: 11/06/2013 Dr David Whitehouse

The absence of any significant change in the global annual average temperature over the past 16 years has become one of the most discussed topics in climate science. It has certainly focused the debate about the relative importance of greenhouse gas forcing of the climate versus natural variability.

In all this discussion what happened to global temperature immediately before the standstill is often neglected. Many assume that since the recent warming period commenced – about 1980 – global temperature rose until 1998 and then the surface temperature at least got stuck. Things are however not that simple, and far more interesting.

As Steve Goddard has interestingly pointed out recently using RSS data going back to 1990 the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 had a very important effect on global temperatures.

Paul Hudson: Summer forecast based on Hubert Lamb’s climatology

Our favourite weatherman has something to tell us:

An expected return to more changeable weather through this week reminded me of the work of one of our best known and most respected climatologists Professor Hubert Lamb.

Professor Lamb is credited with discovering an empirical relationship between low solar activity and an increased probability of higher pressure in winter across more northern latitudes – which leads to colder winters across the UK and Europe.

Another part of his work was to analyse weather patterns over 100 years to try and see if any repeat themselves across the UK, with some success.

Roy Spencer: the parting of ways

Roy Spencer has been criticised for using a poor representation of a devastating indictment of earth temperature models. In response he has come up with a visually more satisfactory version, as above.

Yep, it’s a travesty, all that money and still the heat has run away, it’s hiding.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/still-epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-measurements-running-5-year-means/

Ed Davey plays the 97% consensus trick on BBC R4 in front of Lawson

At about 22:30 BST, 4th June 2013 on BBC Radio 4, Davey and Lawson were together with the subject, well, you can guess.

US Atlantic seaboard tropical storms and solar activity

Plot of ACE from the personal web site of Ryan N. Maue, PhD

Talkshop contributor E Hughes has raised an old subject, whether there is a connection between solar activity and severe storms or other terrestrial events. Things are a bit quiet on the Talkshop, I’m working toward articles, Tallbloke is having a life, so lets provide a place for discussion, see whether anything new has turned up.

French ski resorts open June 2013

Some news doing the rounds is the state of snow in the Pyrenees where there have been very heavy falls over the winter and continued cold. Some French and apparently Spanish resorts are opening this weekend and for the first time ever in June.

I’ve altered their map to better show the location for this resort, near Andorra.

[update, late 2nd June]  Their two webcams showed mountains doing what they do, cloud/fog and I see no human activity. Maybe there was elsewhere. I’m amused.
[/update]

Breaking news: major tornado approaching Oklahoma City

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Reuters “Tornado touches down near Oklahoma City, emergency declared

“(Reuters) – A “large and extremely dangerous” tornado that touched down west of Oklahoma City on Friday, causing some damage, was headed toward the city, and a tornado emergency has been declared in the area, the National Weather Service said.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/01/us-usa-tornadoes-idUSBRE94T10N20130601

Sure hope this is just one. Nope, 3 now reported. Deaths reported.

60 Years ago Today: Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay Summited Everest

It was a remarkable feat of organisation, courage and endurance. These two adventurers captured the imaginations of a generation.

In 1953, a ninth British expedition, led by John Hunt, returned to Nepal. Hunt selected two climbing pairs to attempt to reach the summit. The first pair (Tom Bourdillon and Charles Evans) came within 100 m (330 ft) of the summit on 26 May 1953, but turned back after running into oxygen problems. As planned, their work in route finding and breaking trail and their caches of extra oxygen were of great aid to the following pair. Two days later, the expedition made its second and final assault on the summit with its second climbing pair, the New Zealander Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay, a Nepali sherpa climber from Darjeeling, India. They reached the summit at 11:30 am local time on 29 May 1953 via the South Col Route. At the time, both acknowledged it as a team effort by the whole expedition, but Tenzing revealed a few years later that Hillary had put his foot on the summit first.^[26] They paused at the summit to take photographs and buried a few sweets and a small cross in the snow before descending.

News of the expedition’s success reached London on the morning of Queen Elizabeth II’s coronation, 2 June. Returning to Kathmandu a few days later, Hunt (a Briton) and Hillary (a New Zealander) discovered that they had been promptly knighted in the Order of the British Empire, a KBE, for the ascent. Tenzing, a Nepali sherpa who was a citizen of India, was granted the George Medal by the UK. Hunt was ultimately made a life peer in Britain, while Hillary became a founding member of the Order of New Zealand. Hillary and Tenzing are also nationally recognized in Nepal, where annual ceremonies in schools and offices celebrate their accomplishment.^[27]