Archive for the ‘weather’ Category

From the Mail online. H/T Maurizio ‘Omnologos’ Morabito for the improved title:

Green ‘smear campaign’ against professor who dared to disown ‘sexed up’ UN climate dossier
By David Rose 6-4-14

apocalypse

The professor who refused to sign last week’s high-profile UN climate report because it was too ‘alarmist’, has told The Mail on Sunday he has become the victim of a smear campaign.
Richard Tol claims he is fighting a sustained attack on his reputation by [Bob Ward, director of the Grantham Institute], a leading institution that researches the impact of global warming .
Prof Tol said:

This has all the characteristics of a smear campaign. It’s all about taking away my credibility as an expert.

Prof Tol, from Sussex University, is a highly respected climate economist and one of two ‘co-ordinating lead authors’ of an important chapter in the 2,600-page report published last week by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5 WGII).
He has been widely criticised by green campaigners after he claimed that the much shorter ‘summary for policymakers’ [SPM] – hammered out in all-night sessions between scientists and government officials over a week-long meeting in Yokohama, Japan – was overly alarmist.
In his view, the summary focused on ‘scare stories’ and suggestions the world faced ‘the four horsemen of the apocalypse’.

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There is a new open access paper published in Environmental Research Letters by Yannick Peings and Gudrun Magnusdottir entitled ‘Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean’. It’s another blow to the ‘bad winter weather is caused by us wicked humans’ doom mongers such as Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo. 

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This is first art from access to the Chilbolton Observatory datasets.



Note: autoscaling has been allowed.

Data source Chilbolton Observatory and BADC archive [Ref1]

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ENSO: What chance a 2014 El Nino?

Posted: March 23, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in Forecasting, Natural Variation, weather

Here’s the BOM’s sub surface monitor output for the Pacific ocean:
14-02-sub_surf_mon

Here’s the WMO forecast:
Current Situation and Outlook
The tropical Pacific continues to be ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Model forecasts and expert opinion suggest that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the second quarter of 2014. Current model outlooks further suggest an enhanced possibility of the development of a weak El Niño around the middle of 2014, with approximately equal chances for neutral or weak El Niño. However, models tend to have reduced skill when forecasting through the March-May period. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other agencies will continue to monitor the conditions over the Pacific and assess the most likely state of the climate through the first half of 2014.

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Tim Ball has a new book out. ‘The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science’ is a hard hitting critique of the development of the co2 scare covering the whole sorry saga from the inception of the IPCC up to present. I’m reproducing the preface here with his permission in order to promote this great read to as wide an audience as possible. Tim is still in the throes of dealing with the moribund lawsuit Mickey Mann launched against him after he quipped that Mann should be in the state pen rather than at Penn State. Please consider buying his book in order to support his effort to defend himself against the  combined resourses of Mann and his financial backers.

The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science
by Dr Tim Ball – Stairway Press January 21, 2014

PREFACE

Then up and spent the evening walking with my wife, talking; and it thundering and lightening mightily all the evening—and this year have had the most thunder and lightening, they say, of any in man’s memory.

—Diary of Samuel Pepys, entry for July 3, 1664

I’ve  studied  climate  both scientifically and academically for over forty years after spending eight years studying meteorology and observing the weather as an aircrew and operations officer in the Canadian Air Force. When I began the academic portion of my career, global cooling was the concern, but it was not a major social theme. During the 1980s the concern switched to global warming which became a major political, social and economic issue.

I watched my chosen discipline—climatology—get hijacked and exploited in service of a political agenda, watched people who knew little or nothing enter the fray and watched scientists become involved for political or funding reasons—willing to corrupt the science, or, at least, ignore what was really going on. The tale is more than a sad story because it set climatology back thirty years and damaged the credibility of science in general.

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josh-slingoGuest post from Adrian Kerton:

The BBC Horizon programme on ‘Global Weirding’
Horizon say: “Something weird seems to be happening to our weather – it appears to be getting more extreme.

The BBC reports:
Dame Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist, said the variable UK climate meant there was “no definitive answer” to what caused the storms. “But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change,” she added. “There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly rain events.”

“We have records going back to 1766 and we have nothing like this,” she said. “We have seen some exceptional weather. We can’t say it is unprecedented but it is exceptional.”

So what constitutes exceptional weather?

Paul Homewood has analysed the figures extensively and those suggest that for the UK, the weather is doing pretty much what it has always done.

As a manufacturing engineer I was introduced to the wonderful world of control charts so I have constructed these to see if our current winter UK rainfall was exceptional.
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The E.U’s climate supremo, Christina Figueres believes she has identified the reason the public aren’t buying into the alarmist narrative: She thinks it’s a communications problem. She’s well insulated from the truth by a commissariat that airbrushes out all contrarian scientific points of view and presents reports for her to read which gloss over the fact that very little in the way of global warming has been happening for the last 17 years [1], and that observations no longer fall within the range of model outputs. The public are better informed than she is. That’s the real reason for the steady decline in the public’s belief in patched-up and threadbare climate theory. A recent E.U. survey shows that the percentage of people in western Europe (Sweden and Denmark excepted) who regard ‘climate change’ as a major issue has in fact slumped over the last two years. Some quotes from her latest speechifying, as reported by The Independent:

Chapter-9-Cartoon-Caption“communication is our major challenge”.

“It is extremely difficult for scientists to speak in a way that policymakers can understand them. Just like it is extremely difficult for delegates of the UNFCCC to speak in a language that anybody on the street understands,” said Ms Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

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Lisa Goddard of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, New York has a commentary article in Nature Climate Change today entitled Heat hide and seek’ which caught my eye. In part it says this:

Natural variability seems to be capable of accounting for changes in ocean heat uptake of the magnitude experienced. Many recent studies point to the role of PDO in this recent hiatus. What is particularly compelling is that this period has also been one of negative PDO. Further suggestive evidence is that the last period with decade-scale trends in global mean temperature as weak as that experienced since the turn of the century occurred through the 1950s and early 1960s, which was another period dominated by very negative PDO conditions. This shows that hiatus periods are unusual but not unprecedented.

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Mark Steyn: Amphibious Albion

Posted: February 24, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in alarmism, Carbon cycle, Idiots, Incompetence, Legal, weather, wind

Reblogged from Mark Steyn’s website, an article on the UK floods. Buy one of his gift certificates if you would like to help give him a sporting chance of successfully countersuing the odious Michael Mann:

Amphibious Albion
by Mark Steyn

josh-crockey_stick_scrAs non-British TV viewers may have discerned, the whole of the United Kingdom is presently underwater. Something to do with that rising of the oceans that Barack Obama promised to reverse?

Why, yes!

Mr Miliband says: “This winter is a one-in-250-year event” (yet it’s nothing like as wet as 1929-30 if you count the whole of England and Wales, let alone Britain) and that “the science is clear”. The chief scientist of the Met Office, Dame Julia Slingo, tells us “all the evidence” suggests that climate change is contributing to this winter’s wetness. (Why, then, did she allow the Met Office to forecast in November that a dry winter was almost twice as likely as a wet winter?) Lord Stern, an economist, claimed that the recent weather is evidence “we are already experiencing the impact of climate change”.

In fact, before the prophets of doom drowned out everyone else, the “consensus” was that flooding was nothing to do with “climate change”:

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Reblogged from Jaime Jessop’s nascent climatecontrarian site:

Climate Wars – CO2 vs. Solar in the Battle to Lay Claim to Jet Stream Anomalies
By Jaime Jessop – 23-2-2014
Mat Collins of Exeter University admitted to the world a week ago that the direct cause of the UK’s wet and windy winter was/is the North Atlantic Jet Stream. It has been directly responsible for the ‘conveyor belt’ of powerful storms which have hit the UK, one after another, in seemingly endless succession, since December 2013 all the way into February of this year. The rain precipitated by those storms has resulted in widespread river flooding.

In addition, a particularly deep depression which coincided with a very high tide on the 5th/6th December also resulted in fairly severe coastal flooding along eastern coastal areas. Nothing as bad as the devastating tidal surge of 1953 but that was more down to massively improved flood defences in the last 50 years. The Dec 2013 tidal surge was probably only a shade less menacing in terms of actual sea level rise than was the 1953 event. Severe gales and storm force winds have also driven huge waves over sea defences in Wales and the West Country, resulting in yet more localised flooding.

All this chaos due to the Jet Stream, due to the run of extreme weather caused by that Jet Stream. But, given the exhaustive news coverage and the opportunity for a propaganda coup, it was inevitable that the proponents of CO2 induced global warming would figure out some way to link in the storms with ‘climate change’ and, right on cue, up stepped Julia Slingo to claim that ‘all the evidence’ pointed to a link between the UK floods and ‘climate change’.

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