Archive for the ‘weather’ Category

Not our fault  [image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images]

Not our fault
[image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images]

One in the eye for ‘man-made warming’ blowhards…

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have demolished claims by global warming activists that global warming caused or worsened many extreme weather events last year.

According to NOAA’s new publication, Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, there is no discernible connection between global warming and 2013 extreme weather events such as the California drought, Colorado floods, the UK’s exceptionally cold spring, a South Dakota blizzard, Central Europe floods, a northwestern Europe cyclone, and exceptional snowfall in Europe’s Pyrenees Mountains.

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Disagree with the Met Office, moi? 

30 September 2014 – Early Met Office figures show this is set to be the driest September across the UK since records began in 1910, with exceptionally low rainfall for many parts of the country.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/early-september-stats

Using Met Office published data 1910 onwards where I am specifically looking for abnormality taking into account variation through the year and the natural asymmetry of wet and dry. This is a non-trivial task.

 

Region Sept 2014 Z score
East Anglia 85th -1.5
England 21st -2.1
England and Wales 20th -2.1
England E and NE 36th -1.9
England N 17th -2.2
England NW and N Wales 14th -2.4
Engalnd S 42nd -1.9
England SE and Central S 66th -1.6
England SW and S Wales 45th -1.9
Midlands 26th -2.0
Northern Ireland 6th -2.6
Scotland 27th -2.0
Scotland E 54th -1.8
Scotland N 62nd -1.7
Scotland W 16th -2.3
UK 14th -2.3
Wales 28th -2.1

Oh well, my software or method must be defective. Or perhaps it rained a lot between 30th September and 1st October. An age old British tradition of sogg’in in Autumn on the 31st.

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Paul Vaughan has suggested we hold a discussion on bi-decadal climatic variation, which exhibits quasi-cyclic patterns in various datasets. To get the ball rolling, Paul has kindly given some time to producing some very interesting plots which he has introduced across a few recent threads. This posts puts these in one place and acts as an invitation to those interested in a focussed discussion on the topic.

The Bidecadal Oscillation

Is it caused by the solar Hale Cycle as suggested by Tim Channon or is it caused by the velocity of the sun with respect to the solar system barycenter as suggested by Nicola Scafetta?

http://s18.postimg.org/74uty1eix/Bidecadal_SST_Sun_Velocity_Hale_Cycle.png

Bidecadal_SST_Sun_Velocity_Hale_Cycle
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The snowfall of 1956

Posted: September 16, 2014 by tchannon in weather

This article has merit in interest but is a precursor to a following article containing the results from a large new work about Met Office gridded data CRUTEM3, HadSST3 and HadCRUT3. Links to the event of 1956 as a validation mark.

In looking for evidence of a major cold snap in France the following personal account article appeared, it has sunspots SSW and lots of falling snow.

The winter of 1956 in the Southern Hemisphere

That year ended with a terribly cold wave in the Southern Hemisphere, with snow mixed with rain at Geraldton in Western Australia, at a latitude 28.48 ° South, which was the snowfall at lowest latitude ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. Usually, cold waves affecting Europe and North America are a consequence of stratwarming, which is an unusual heating of the stratosphere above the North Pole, which in turn leads to tropospheric arctic anticyclones, with consequent descent of cold air to lower latitudes.

But not so in 1955-1956, the longest and geographically widest cold wave in the 20th century.

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This article is cross posted from Tim’s blog as of interest to some Talkshop readers with a few extra sentences likely to raise discussion. 

August 2014 there was a meteorological gift of both exceptional conditions and good data. What can be learnt?

Three Met Office sites showed a signature of exponential cooling. This requires clear sky and a calm. Given somewhat limited parameter hourly data the following shows the commonality. The computed terminal conditions are shown later in this article.

Image

Benson and Santon Downham data has been normalised to Katesbridge[3], which has the least noisy data or the three.

Achieving a close overlay requires taking earth rotation into account, dusk and dawn move relatively both by geographic location and the peculiar movement throughout the year as night length changes, these do not move together [1]. Fractional delay (less that the sample period) was used to equalize diurnal time. (see the two blog articles here)

Dusk appears to be the important factor, a surprising finding, I assume cooling is time from dusk, dawn terminates cooling.

General information, under essentially calm conditions wind drops for a period during the night then reappears just after dawn. (not shown here)

Temperature normalisation defined is for the cold period, not as accurate for Benson where the better site exposure (more open) led to more wind at times.

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August 25, 1814

The clouds began to swirl and the winds kicked up. A tornado formed in the center of the city and headed straight for the British on Capitol Hill. The twister ripped buildings from their foundations and trees up by the roots. British cannons were tossed around by the winds. Several British troops were killed by falling structures and flying debris.

 

The rain continued for two hours, dousing the flames. The British decided it was time to leave.

The lady answered, “No, Sir, this is a special interposition of Providence to drive our enemies from our city.”

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-tornado-that-saved-washington-33901211

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Has Joe done what Uncle Sam couldn’t?

Posted: August 25, 2014 by tchannon in climate, ENSO, sea ice, weather

Some say money can buy brains, brains are cheap. Duffers think that, make the mistake of confusing rote with The Spark. As a wit said ‘the most intelligent person in the room is the room’… to which I add, buying others to inside still leaves the room. Self selection is recursive.

There again for here, an oscillation does not explain itself. Small step first.

Joe Bastardi is writing sense, Gosselin runs with it.

Image

A Single Meteorologist Explains What $165 Billion In Government-Funded Climate Science Couldn’t

By P Gosselin on 24. August 2014

Large scale oceanic oscillations responsible for most of the post 1980 “warming”

By Joe Bastardi

I think global warming is a misnomer.

There is a distortion of the temperature pattern on the globe, brought about by the natural cyclical warming events of the warm PDO and warm AMO together. I spoke about this at Heartland a couple of years ago – how the sea ice increase in the south and the decrease in the north were the hidden message that here is no “warming” just a distortion.

http://notrickszone.com/2014/08/24/a-single-meteorologist-explains-what-165-billion-in-government-funded-climate-science-couldnt/

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We have an August frost, 0.0C mean at 3am BST

Posted: August 24, 2014 by tchannon in weather

Quick post by Tim

Image

Katesbridge is fascinating, edge of marsh in Northern Ireland (see surfacestations, top menu), it can be very cold. Benson, south of England is down to 4C, a cool night with I suspect a touch of ground frost widely. Hopefully not enough to damage sensitive garden plants. (I have the numeric data here)

For me this is a fascinating moment, been working on an evolution of capturing and presenting UK Met Office data. First usage was literally a few minutes ago, manually grabbed the data, get get and then typed regen, it figured out what needed doing, worked.

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Igloo time [image credit: Ansgar Walk / Wikipedia]

Igloo time
[image credit: Ansgar Walk / Wikipedia]


This is worth a look just for the last paragraph, which undermines most of the rest of it. Under the optimistic sub-heading ‘Warming to recommence’ we find:

‘Despite the warming hiatus, Knutti is convinced there is no reason to doubt either the existing calculations for the climate activity of greenhouse gases or the latest climate models.’

“Short-term climate fluctuations can easily be explained. They do not alter the fact that the climate will become considerably warmer in the long term as a result of greenhouse gas emissions,” says Knutti.

‘He believes that global warming will recommence as soon as solar activity, aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and weather phenomena such as El Niño naturally start returning to the values of previous decades.’ [bold added]

Translation: as soon as the sun, the weather and volcanoes – all natural factors – allow, the world will start warming again. Who knew?

Farsnews report: Why Global Warming Is Taking a Break

Good to hear a warmist trashing his own theory in order to explain the lack of temperature rise this century – without realising it.

2014 will be a SCORCHER!

Posted: August 19, 2014 by tchannon in alarmism, weather

Long-range weather forecast for UK reveals 2014 will be a SCORCHER!
BRITAIN is set to roast in a THREE-MONTH heatwave that could smash ALL summer weather records, forecasters claimed tonight.

Published: Wed, April 9, 2014
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/469361/Long-range-summer-weather-forecast-for-UK-predicts-100-days-of-sun-and-record-temperatures

That was not the Met Office, wise. Couple of days ago (maybe 17th August) there was muttering about a ground frost in a few places if the wind falls light. Wind has been pulling in Artic air for some days now.

Night 17th/18th Exeter Airport dropped to 5.8C, far south west of England. Previous night Breamar Scotland 8.8C, traditionally the coldest place.

Central heating here wanted to trip on first thing in the morning over the past few days, mean temperature outside well below setpoint.

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There is an unfolding disaster in the poor regions of central America from sustained drought.

I am reluctant to make much of a story involving people in trouble, it is however a good news matter if a needless focus on the daft has gone, focusing instead on where it matters. Put the effort there.

El Nino, which can last more than a year, significantly raises surface temperatures in the central and eastern areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon linked to major climate fluctuations around the world.

“Central America braces for drought-linked food crisis”

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/14/uk-latam-drought-idUKKBN0GE1VD20140814

Are we seeing a change in the media, I hope so.

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hh-p3Image from NOAA press release

NOAA operate a number of hurricane hunter aircraft including three venerable P3-Orion turboprops for low level long duration surveillance.

Taking two out of service for maintenance work as the peak of the hurricane season approaches looks remiss.

I suppose that depends on the true role in 2014 in an era of satellites, radar and alternate aircraft. However according to wikipedia there is also the USAF 53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron  flying into tropical storms, perhaps that is sufficient.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/53rd_Weather_Reconnaissance_Squadron

There again perhaps NOAA believe the season will be quiet… NOAA superstitious? That’s more like it, remove resource, the gods respond.

The story comes from Reuters

Retrofit leaves one plane to fly into U.S. East Coast storms

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Image

On 5th August 2014 I archived the US Navy graphic of the track of hurricane Bertha into just a storm. Today is the 10th August 2014 where a storm is about to arrive in the UK with forecast fairly strong winds and rain. [update] Forget to mention, the timing is correct, dot over England was for 18hrs 10th.

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Heatwave time [image credit: BBC]

Heatwave time [image credit: BBC]


Piers Corbyn has made a weather forecast. Nothing new there, that’s his line of work. But this one has caught the attention of at least one organ of the UK national press [warning: loud headline ahead]…
Daily Express report

Reading the forecast, it clearly states the behaviour of the jet stream is the key factor. So what are the chances of showing any significant link between the behaviour of jet streams and small variations in atmospheric trace gases? They appear to be remote at present.

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Blackout_britain

Visit Cartoons by Josh and buy something

From RT.com

The UK risks sweeping electricity blackouts unless it increases the state’s capacity to balance infrequent supply from renewable energy sources, a prominent engineer who carried out government-funded research has warned.

While British authorities are under legal obligation to source almost a third of their electricity from renewable sources such as solar and wind by 2020, they require immediately deployable gas-fuelled power stations to cater for inevitable lulls in sun and wind energy output.

Hugh Sharman, a British engineering consultant, was commissioned to work on a government-sanctioned report examining how UK authorities could sustain the nation’s energy demands in an era of mandatory renewable energy use.

Tendered to the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) last year, the research went unpublished.

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Gravesend 32.3C, why so hot?

Posted: July 19, 2014 by tchannon in weather

The Met office Gravesend weather station is a little notorious as runs hot in what is the hottest part of the UK where there is a lot of history over dubious temperature measurement. (some findings yet to be revealed)

Image

This Gravesend station is one of the few which regularly tops daily readings. I was prepared so I ran a capture of the Met Office web site hourly data for England, numbers are then plotted here. No better information is published, nor is this a full weather station, a subset.

What happened turns out to be interesting.

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Furka closed by snow

Posted: July 12, 2014 by tchannon in weather

Image

Image Cooper.ch

July snow has closed several Swiss passes, as Gosselin puts it

German meteorologists point out that snow at such elevations at this time of year are not unusual. Well, if the “usual” is happening, then the climate can’t be changing that much.

20 inches of snow.

http://notrickszone.com/2014/07/11/in-switzerland-thing-of-the-past-becomes-a-thing-of-july-more-weather-that-isnt-supposed-to-happen/

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Greenhouse effectsFollowing on from our recent debate on the likely extent of the greenhouse effect on Earth, this post will broaden the scope of discussion by allowing consideration of planetary surface temperatures on imaginary worlds. Tim Folkerts proposes a world at the distance from the Sun of our moon (i.e. the same average distance as Earth), with a twist on surface composition:

Konrad,

Just out of curiosity, if I put a ball of water — say a few km in diameter — in some sort of clear plastic baggie to keep it together and prevent evaporation in orbit around the sun @ 1 AU, are you claiming the water inside the baggie will be at least 80 C everywhere?

Or if I put a series of such plastic baggies on the moon to cover the entire surface with water 1 km deep that cannot evaporate, that the surface of the moon would be at or above 80 C everywhere (lets even limit the question to the “tropics” out to ~ 30 degrees N & S to avoid question about what happens at the poles)?

(We could even make the baggie slightly elastic to apply 1 Atm of pressure inward on the ball of water).

____________________________

Tim appears to have misunderstood what Konrad and I are telling him about the atmosphere being a cooling agent rather than a warming agent, and how pressure acts to slow the loss of energy from the oceans via the atmospheric suppression of evaporation and the increased density of a near surface atmosphere, which is not present on his toy planet.

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Excerpts from David Rose’s Mail on Sunday article, plus a couple of tweets from Richard Betts:

BBC spends £500k to ask 33,000 Asians 5,000 miles from UK what they think of climate change: Corporation savaged for ‘astonishing’ campaign survey on global warming
David Rose – Sun 29th June 2014

bbc-greenpeace-medThe BBC has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds of taxpayers’ money asking 33,000 people in Asian countries how climate change is affecting them.

The £519,000 campaigning survey by little-known BBC Media Action is designed to persuade the world to adopt more hard-line policies to combat global warming.

It was immediately condemned yesterday as a flagrant abuse of the Corporation’s rules on impartiality and ‘a spectacular waste of money’ by a top academic expert.

Every year, BBC Media Action gets £22.2 million from the taxpayer via the Foreign Office and Department for International Development.

BBC Media Action has a £40 million annual budget, and the proportion not funded by the taxpayer is paid  by the European Union, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US government.

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Pierre L. Gosselin provides an English overview of a video presentation in German given by Dr. Sebastian Lüning, a geologist and co-author of the book “The Neglected Sun

This is a geological context that unfortunately is lost on many people like physicists who believe their formulae more than they believe the true facts.

Pierre mentions “All graphics cropped from Lüning’s presentation with permission.” so I won’t copy them here.

http://notrickszone.com/2014/06/29/german-geologist-ipcc-models-a-failure-have-no-chance-of-success-sees-possible-0-2c-of-cooling-by-2020

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