Archive for the ‘weather’ Category

Met Office woolly forecast for Christmas 2014

Posted: November 25, 2014 by tchannon in Forecasting, humour, weather

Now the dank chill of late autumn gives way to winter frosts

english-winter-dusk

Dusk in winter, England, 1980s. The author.

 

Met Office 16 to 30 day forecast now stretches to Christmas Eve, not that it has changed over the past few days. A sudden weather change without a glimmer of notice for the 25th or 26th, I very much doubt it.

Met Office forecast for period day16to30 issued at 2014-11-25T16:00:00

 

Forecast for All regions (shared forecast) day16to30, from 2014-12-10 16hrs (Wed) to 2014-12-24 16hrs (Wed)

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:
  • There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period.
  • However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather.
  • Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year.
  • There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places – this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

 

“There is no strong signal”. Aerial riggers called out…

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Future low solar activity periods may cause cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia.
Jarl Ahlbeck – Abo Akademi University, Finland

Historically, low solar activity periods like the Dalton and Maunder Minima have been connected to cold winters in Europe. It seems very possible that the low solar activity forced areas of low pressures into a southern route or caused a negative Arctic Oscillation, AO, which in turn allowed cold air from the North Pole to flow across Europe. But can we obtain from real measurements that low solar activity really is able to do that?

temp-turku-AO

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HT to the Hockeyschtick for spotting this essay from Marine Biologist Walter Starck at Quadrant Online. More scientists are coming out to call the alarmist position for what it is.

Walter Starck: The Climate Scam’s Meltdown

uksnowiceThe rent-seekers, opportunists, third-rate academics, carbon-market scam artists and peddlers of catastrophic prophecy can see the alarmist bubble deflating, so they’re trying harder than ever to sustain the scare. Problem is, Mother Nature isn’t cooperating.

This doesn’t mean the climate change “debate” will stop, the news media will cease reporting weather as a dire threat, or that the true believers will no longer be obsessed by it. However, the ultimate arbiter, climate itself, has made clear its decision by ceasing to warm for over 18 years. Despite the ongoing use of fossil fuels, a proclaimed 95% certainty of 97% of scientists and the high-powered projections of the world’s most advanced climate models, the climate has refused to pay the slightest heed.

Contrary to all the confidence and predictions of alleged experts, storms are no more intense nor frequent, while droughts, floods and sea levels have declined to confirm alarmists’ barely concealed hopes of disasters. The simple fact is that the alleged experts and their high-powered models were wrong. The climate has ceased to warm and, with little or no [enhanced] greenhouse warming, the entire theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW), aka Climate Change (CC), aka Global Warming, aka Extreme Weather, is left with no basis.

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Rain: Is this cause for concern?

Posted: November 12, 2014 by tchannon in alarmism, Analysis, methodology, weather

A few days ago Paul Homewood picked up an item where the Met Office seem to make a fuss about UK heat and wet, although Robert Ward seems to be the one fussing. Since I have have the precipitation data on hand what do I make of it?

More Misleading Claims From The Met Office” (7th Nov)

This cites Yahoo News.

I’ll ignore the temperature, here is the precipitious matter ‘since records began in 1910 it has been the second wettest.’ [1]
Presumably more than 194 million tons of water dropped on London according to calculations by the British Rainfall Organisation [3]

The Met Office ploy is add the data January through end October and make that a year by year spot value.

Image

2008 110.07
2014 104.47
1927 103.47

Independently reproduced above. Seems a strange measure so lets look some more.

 

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Last day of October 2014 (31/10/2014) was lovely and warm over much of eastern England, particularly the south east. Mostly weak sunshine and a slight southerly wind. The Gravesend site has in the past been the subject of questioning why it is so warm, estuary, not in town.

There was a south wind too in the Cairngorms where the temperature gradually rose all day, with a twist, the wind was rising from 48 mph to 60+ mph, gusted to 84 before last thing the wind shifted and fell. This suggests a general flow.

Image

This confusing plot shows an unusual situation. The highest temperature was recorded at Gravesend, logged by the Met Office as 23.6C, 0.3C above the hour mean. The oddity is this occurred an hour earlier than the other group of stations, or perhaps is an effect of quantisation.

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I’ve started collecting a few of the Met Office published weather forecasts in addition to the weather station data, building an archive.

The UK Met Office are masters of obfuscation, vague language, handwaving yet for all the money poured in over the years their forecasting prowess is notorious. What follows is backed up by more details left for another time.

We have just had a minor blow in London, enough to cancel flights at the premier UK airport, brought down trees, at least one death. The BBC are going on about it as is the Guardian.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29685066
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/oct/21/uk-storms-woman-dead-trees-fall-london-hurricane-gonzalo

[update: Met Office hourly data for the 21st is now in and plotted PDF here (1.4MB) –Tim]

Note for comprehension, 16 to 30 days means that is how far ahead it is from the publication date.

 

Met Office 16 to 30 day forecast

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Oct 2014 to Thursday 23 Oct 2014:

  • The broadly northwest-southeast split in the weather conditions is showing signs of persisting through mid-October.
  • This pattern would leave southern, central and eastern parts tending to see the best of the weather with conditions often fine and dry.
  • Occasional bouts of rain should still be expected, and mist and fog patches may be a problem during morning rush hours.
  • Under the fine weather it should still feel pleasant with temperatures a little above average for the time of year.
  • Further northwest, conditions are likely to be more unsettled with more frequent outbreaks of rain, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds.
  • Temperatures here should be closer to average or perhaps even just below at times.

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[edit: I have made the serious mistake of not checking the date of the news story, is actually 2013 although the page is (c) 2014, tweet items there mention 2013 and I did spot the 99mph gust which I knew from last year,  ought to have twigged. Sorry folks. Tim.]

The Dungeness B nuclear power station in Kent is using diesel generators to power its site after both reactors shut down automatically due to a power cut

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24700611

Logical, no ‘leccy so you can’t have any.

That’s six UK power stations now offline with unplanned stoppages.

A non story other than a defective infrastructure, presumably power lines were out. Is there no end to silly cockups?

Wrong kind of leaves on the line?

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Not our fault  [image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images]

Not our fault
[image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images]

One in the eye for ‘man-made warming’ blowhards…

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have demolished claims by global warming activists that global warming caused or worsened many extreme weather events last year.

According to NOAA’s new publication, Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, there is no discernible connection between global warming and 2013 extreme weather events such as the California drought, Colorado floods, the UK’s exceptionally cold spring, a South Dakota blizzard, Central Europe floods, a northwestern Europe cyclone, and exceptional snowfall in Europe’s Pyrenees Mountains.

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Disagree with the Met Office, moi? 

30 September 2014 – Early Met Office figures show this is set to be the driest September across the UK since records began in 1910, with exceptionally low rainfall for many parts of the country.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/early-september-stats

Using Met Office published data 1910 onwards where I am specifically looking for abnormality taking into account variation through the year and the natural asymmetry of wet and dry. This is a non-trivial task.

 

Region Sept 2014 Z score
East Anglia 85th -1.5
England 21st -2.1
England and Wales 20th -2.1
England E and NE 36th -1.9
England N 17th -2.2
England NW and N Wales 14th -2.4
Engalnd S 42nd -1.9
England SE and Central S 66th -1.6
England SW and S Wales 45th -1.9
Midlands 26th -2.0
Northern Ireland 6th -2.6
Scotland 27th -2.0
Scotland E 54th -1.8
Scotland N 62nd -1.7
Scotland W 16th -2.3
UK 14th -2.3
Wales 28th -2.1

Oh well, my software or method must be defective. Or perhaps it rained a lot between 30th September and 1st October. An age old British tradition of sogg’in in Autumn on the 31st.

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Paul Vaughan has suggested we hold a discussion on bi-decadal climatic variation, which exhibits quasi-cyclic patterns in various datasets. To get the ball rolling, Paul has kindly given some time to producing some very interesting plots which he has introduced across a few recent threads. This posts puts these in one place and acts as an invitation to those interested in a focussed discussion on the topic.

The Bidecadal Oscillation

Is it caused by the solar Hale Cycle as suggested by Tim Channon or is it caused by the velocity of the sun with respect to the solar system barycenter as suggested by Nicola Scafetta?

http://s18.postimg.org/74uty1eix/Bidecadal_SST_Sun_Velocity_Hale_Cycle.png

Bidecadal_SST_Sun_Velocity_Hale_Cycle
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The snowfall of 1956

Posted: September 16, 2014 by tchannon in weather

This article has merit in interest but is a precursor to a following article containing the results from a large new work about Met Office gridded data CRUTEM3, HadSST3 and HadCRUT3. Links to the event of 1956 as a validation mark.

In looking for evidence of a major cold snap in France the following personal account article appeared, it has sunspots SSW and lots of falling snow.

The winter of 1956 in the Southern Hemisphere

That year ended with a terribly cold wave in the Southern Hemisphere, with snow mixed with rain at Geraldton in Western Australia, at a latitude 28.48 ° South, which was the snowfall at lowest latitude ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. Usually, cold waves affecting Europe and North America are a consequence of stratwarming, which is an unusual heating of the stratosphere above the North Pole, which in turn leads to tropospheric arctic anticyclones, with consequent descent of cold air to lower latitudes.

But not so in 1955-1956, the longest and geographically widest cold wave in the 20th century.

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This article is cross posted from Tim’s blog as of interest to some Talkshop readers with a few extra sentences likely to raise discussion. 

August 2014 there was a meteorological gift of both exceptional conditions and good data. What can be learnt?

Three Met Office sites showed a signature of exponential cooling. This requires clear sky and a calm. Given somewhat limited parameter hourly data the following shows the commonality. The computed terminal conditions are shown later in this article.

Image

Benson and Santon Downham data has been normalised to Katesbridge[3], which has the least noisy data or the three.

Achieving a close overlay requires taking earth rotation into account, dusk and dawn move relatively both by geographic location and the peculiar movement throughout the year as night length changes, these do not move together [1]. Fractional delay (less that the sample period) was used to equalize diurnal time. (see the two blog articles here)

Dusk appears to be the important factor, a surprising finding, I assume cooling is time from dusk, dawn terminates cooling.

General information, under essentially calm conditions wind drops for a period during the night then reappears just after dawn. (not shown here)

Temperature normalisation defined is for the cold period, not as accurate for Benson where the better site exposure (more open) led to more wind at times.

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August 25, 1814

The clouds began to swirl and the winds kicked up. A tornado formed in the center of the city and headed straight for the British on Capitol Hill. The twister ripped buildings from their foundations and trees up by the roots. British cannons were tossed around by the winds. Several British troops were killed by falling structures and flying debris.

 

The rain continued for two hours, dousing the flames. The British decided it was time to leave.

The lady answered, “No, Sir, this is a special interposition of Providence to drive our enemies from our city.”

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-tornado-that-saved-washington-33901211

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Has Joe done what Uncle Sam couldn’t?

Posted: August 25, 2014 by tchannon in climate, ENSO, sea ice, weather

Some say money can buy brains, brains are cheap. Duffers think that, make the mistake of confusing rote with The Spark. As a wit said ‘the most intelligent person in the room is the room’… to which I add, buying others to inside still leaves the room. Self selection is recursive.

There again for here, an oscillation does not explain itself. Small step first.

Joe Bastardi is writing sense, Gosselin runs with it.

Image

A Single Meteorologist Explains What $165 Billion In Government-Funded Climate Science Couldn’t

By P Gosselin on 24. August 2014

Large scale oceanic oscillations responsible for most of the post 1980 “warming”

By Joe Bastardi

I think global warming is a misnomer.

There is a distortion of the temperature pattern on the globe, brought about by the natural cyclical warming events of the warm PDO and warm AMO together. I spoke about this at Heartland a couple of years ago – how the sea ice increase in the south and the decrease in the north were the hidden message that here is no “warming” just a distortion.

http://notrickszone.com/2014/08/24/a-single-meteorologist-explains-what-165-billion-in-government-funded-climate-science-couldnt/

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We have an August frost, 0.0C mean at 3am BST

Posted: August 24, 2014 by tchannon in weather

Quick post by Tim

Image

Katesbridge is fascinating, edge of marsh in Northern Ireland (see surfacestations, top menu), it can be very cold. Benson, south of England is down to 4C, a cool night with I suspect a touch of ground frost widely. Hopefully not enough to damage sensitive garden plants. (I have the numeric data here)

For me this is a fascinating moment, been working on an evolution of capturing and presenting UK Met Office data. First usage was literally a few minutes ago, manually grabbed the data, get get and then typed regen, it figured out what needed doing, worked.

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Igloo time [image credit: Ansgar Walk / Wikipedia]

Igloo time
[image credit: Ansgar Walk / Wikipedia]


This is worth a look just for the last paragraph, which undermines most of the rest of it. Under the optimistic sub-heading ‘Warming to recommence’ we find:

‘Despite the warming hiatus, Knutti is convinced there is no reason to doubt either the existing calculations for the climate activity of greenhouse gases or the latest climate models.’

“Short-term climate fluctuations can easily be explained. They do not alter the fact that the climate will become considerably warmer in the long term as a result of greenhouse gas emissions,” says Knutti.

‘He believes that global warming will recommence as soon as solar activity, aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and weather phenomena such as El Niño naturally start returning to the values of previous decades.’ [bold added]

Translation: as soon as the sun, the weather and volcanoes – all natural factors – allow, the world will start warming again. Who knew?

Farsnews report: Why Global Warming Is Taking a Break

Good to hear a warmist trashing his own theory in order to explain the lack of temperature rise this century – without realising it.

2014 will be a SCORCHER!

Posted: August 19, 2014 by tchannon in alarmism, weather

Long-range weather forecast for UK reveals 2014 will be a SCORCHER!
BRITAIN is set to roast in a THREE-MONTH heatwave that could smash ALL summer weather records, forecasters claimed tonight.

Published: Wed, April 9, 2014
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/469361/Long-range-summer-weather-forecast-for-UK-predicts-100-days-of-sun-and-record-temperatures

That was not the Met Office, wise. Couple of days ago (maybe 17th August) there was muttering about a ground frost in a few places if the wind falls light. Wind has been pulling in Artic air for some days now.

Night 17th/18th Exeter Airport dropped to 5.8C, far south west of England. Previous night Breamar Scotland 8.8C, traditionally the coldest place.

Central heating here wanted to trip on first thing in the morning over the past few days, mean temperature outside well below setpoint.

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There is an unfolding disaster in the poor regions of central America from sustained drought.

I am reluctant to make much of a story involving people in trouble, it is however a good news matter if a needless focus on the daft has gone, focusing instead on where it matters. Put the effort there.

El Nino, which can last more than a year, significantly raises surface temperatures in the central and eastern areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon linked to major climate fluctuations around the world.

“Central America braces for drought-linked food crisis”

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/14/uk-latam-drought-idUKKBN0GE1VD20140814

Are we seeing a change in the media, I hope so.

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hh-p3Image from NOAA press release

NOAA operate a number of hurricane hunter aircraft including three venerable P3-Orion turboprops for low level long duration surveillance.

Taking two out of service for maintenance work as the peak of the hurricane season approaches looks remiss.

I suppose that depends on the true role in 2014 in an era of satellites, radar and alternate aircraft. However according to wikipedia there is also the USAF 53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron  flying into tropical storms, perhaps that is sufficient.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/53rd_Weather_Reconnaissance_Squadron

There again perhaps NOAA believe the season will be quiet… NOAA superstitious? That’s more like it, remove resource, the gods respond.

The story comes from Reuters

Retrofit leaves one plane to fly into U.S. East Coast storms

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Image

On 5th August 2014 I archived the US Navy graphic of the track of hurricane Bertha into just a storm. Today is the 10th August 2014 where a storm is about to arrive in the UK with forecast fairly strong winds and rain. [update] Forget to mention, the timing is correct, dot over England was for 18hrs 10th.

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