The moon is linked to long term Atlantic changes.

Posted: November 30, 2009 by tallbloke in climate
Tags: , , ,

For some time I’ve been wondering how the longer term cyclicities of the moon might affect the Earth’s climate.

I just came across this very interesting 2008 paper:

Lunar nodal tide effects on variability of sea level, temperature, and salinity in the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea
Yndestad Harald; Turrell, William R and Ozhigin, Vladimir:
Link to full paper (paywalled)


The Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Kola Section hydrographic time-series cover a time period of more than 100 years and represent two of the longest oceanographic time-series in the world. Relationships between the temperature and salinity of Atlantic water from these two areas are examined in this paper, which also presents for the first time comparisons between them and annual mean sea levels in the region. The investigation was based on a wavelet spectrum analysis used to identify the dominant cycle periods and cycle phases in all time-series. The water-property time-series show mean variability correlated to a sub-harmonic cycle of the nodal tide of about 74 years, with an advective delay between the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea of about 2 years. In addition, correlations better than R=0.7 were found between dominant Atlantic water temperature cycles and the 18.6-year lunar nodal tide, and better than R=0.4 for the 18.6/2=9.3-year lunar nodal phase tide. The correlation between the lunar nodal tides and the ocean temperature variability suggests that deterministic lunar nodal tides are important regional climate indicators that should be included when future regional climate variability is considered. The present analysis suggests that Atlantic water temperature and salinity fluctuations in the Nordic Seas are influenced by forced tidal mixing modulated by harmonics of the nodal tide and influencing the water mass characteristics at some point “down stream” from the Faroe-Shetland Channel. The effects of the modulated oceanic mixing are subsequently distributed as complex coupled lunar nodal sub-harmonic spectra in the thermohaline circulation.

Lunar nodal tides against Atlantic temperature 1900-2005

Lunar nodal tides against Atlantic temperature 1900-2005 Harald Yndestad

Harald has a page on climate here:

He says:

In this analysis we may understand the forced gravitation oscillation between the earth, sun and the moon as a forced coupled oscillation system to the earth. The tide and the earth rotation responds as a non-linear coupled oscillation to the forced gravity periods from the moon and the sun. This is a complex oscillation in periods between hours and thousands of years. The forced gravitation introduces a tidal mixing in the Atlantic Ocean. This tidal mixing introduces temperature and salinity fluctuations that influences climate and the eco system.”

It looks to me like the coincidence of these lunar cycles with the planetary cycles in my previous post may go some way to explaining the peak temperatures Earth experienced recently. These longer term cycles cause tidal mixing and overturning in the ocean which will affect the absorption and release of oceanic heat energy. This will be the subject of my next post.

  1. Ulric Lyons says:

    I don`t buy it, the Moon`s nodal cycle cannot be responsible for decadal changes in global temperature, only the Sun can do that. I see no mechanism for the nodal cycle to change phase to produce the 74.4yr cycle.
    I have plotted theoretical solar cycles at 18.03yrs, 71.95yrs and 76.74yrs, the latter two average at 74.35yrs, and harmonize (ratio of 16:15) at around 1150yrs, the length of the dominant cycle marking major warm and cold periods.

    Thanks Ulric, I’ve emailed you for clarification on this.

  2. Cold Lynx says:

    I belive that is quite simple.
    The earth axial tilt plus the moon inclination make the tidal force to have an angle not pure ecliptic.

    In short when the moon and the sun is high up on the NH as in the NH summer and with spring tide will the tidal force have an maximum angle of 23.44 + 5.14 = 28.58 degrees from the ecliptic.
    That force induce a movement of ocean water AND the atmosphere to move towards north-east with that angle.
    That will move heat from the south to the north.
    By wind and tide

    In the worst winter case will the force made wind and water come from the north-west with the same angle. Chilly.

    The solar induced diurnal tide will, simplified, start the wind in the sunrise and stop it in the sunset. With the direction of the earth axial tilt depending on season.
    The moon tide will override this with the moons inclination and position. Sometime increase the angle sometimes reduce the angle.
    That is the 18.6 year cycle.
    The atmosphere will probably have a larger tide respons than the oceans but more difficult to measure since it is transformed to wind speed rather than ocean hight.

    Thanks for your observations, they certainly make sense on the 18.6 year cycle, as the maximum declination of the moon changes.

  3. I have quietly undertaken the study of the relationships between the interactions of the Sun’s magnetic fields borne on the solar wind, and it’s interactions with the Earth’s weather patterns to the point I have found the cyclic patterns of the shorter decadeal durations, that show up as the natural background variances in the climate RAW data sets. Starting with the history of research into planetary motions and the Lunar declination,(the Earth / Moon system’s response to the rotation of the magnetic poles of the sun. In order to find a natural analog to the patterns in the weather there were several things I had to consider.

    The results of the analog cyclic pattern I discovered repeat with in a complex pattern of Inner planet harmonics, and outer planet longer term interferences that come round to the 172 year pattern Landscheidt discovered, so this is just the shorter period set of variables, that further define the limits, of the natural variables needed to be considered, along side the CO2 hypothesis, as the longer term/period parents (Milankivich and Landscheidt cycles) of these driving forces are valid. It would be in error if they were not considered and calculated into the filtering of the swings in the climate data, for forecasting longer terms into the future.

    A sample of the cyclic pattern found in the meteorological database is presented as a composite of the past three cycles composited together and plotted onto maps for a 5 year period starting in 2008, and running to January of 2014, on a rough draft website I use to further define the shifts in the pattern from the past three to the current cycle, to continue learning about the details of the interactions.

    The building of Stonehenge at the end of the last ice age, was done as the weather in the area was changing from tundra, to grasses and shrubs, in waves from the El nino effects at the time.

    They began a study of the relationship between the Solar and Lunar declinational movement timing, found the lunar 18.6 year Mn minimum/maximum declinational cycle, the 19 year Metonic cycle where the moon is at the same phase and maximum declination on the same date every 19 years, and the 6585 day Saris cycle of eclipses.

    From combining the annual seasonal effects of apparent solar declination, and the short term effects of the Lunar declinational movement. The Incas and Mayans understood repeating weather patterns well enough to build a thriving culture, that supported a much larger population, than the area currently barely supports in poverty.

    Then along came the Conquistadors, that were assumed to be the gods foretold in prophecy, who took over and killed off the high priests and the learned class (because the Catholic priests with them were convinced, they were idolaters and heretics.) so all were lost that understood how the “Pagan religion” was able to grow that much food with little problems, by the timing of celebrations and festivals that the people partook of, in a joyous and productive mood.

    The Mayan stone masons who were busy carving out the next stone block to carve another 300 years of calendar upon, were put to work mining gold to export back to Spain. So with the next stone block unfinished, and in the rough, still in the quarry the Mayan calendar comes to an end in 2012.

    Most of the population of the area was either killed in battles, or worked to death, while on cocaine to minimize food consumption, and mined gold for export by the false gods.

    At home in Europe the Spanish inquisition sought to wipe out the fund of knowledge, (that went underground) about the interactions of the Solar and Lunar declinational movements and other sidereal stellar influences on people, and things in the natural world. As the result of mass killings, and book burnings much knowledge, and data history was lost.

    Nicolas Copernicus, (19, February 1473 – 24 May 1543) and Nostradamus, (21 December, 1503 – 2 July 1566) Were around at about the same time and may have collaborated in person, or through a net work of underground friends. To give Nostradamus the idea to convert the data sets of past history sorted by geocentric astrology locations and positions, to a Heliocentric data base from which he drew his famous quatrains. There are many references to late night calculations, aside observations that may have given him his accuracy. Then along came Galileo Galilie , (15, February, 1564 – 8 January, 1642) with proof, that round moons circled round planets.

    With the advent of good fast cheap computers, I was able to look at data sets ( although with considerably less coverage due to centuries of suppression,) and sort for Planetary and Lunar influences, and found that the Lunar declinational component, of the orbital movements, of the Moon, was responsible for the driving, of the Rossby Wave patterns, in sync with the lunar declinational tidal forces at work in the atmosphere.

    How does this all work you ask? Well there is a magnetic field that surrounds the sun, and magnetic fields, that are invested in the body of the Galaxy. These large scale standing fields, interact to produce fluctuations in the strength of the fields felt upon the Earth as it moves in it’s orbit.

    The poles of the Earth are tilted to the axis of the solar system ~23 ½ degrees, giving us the changing seasons. The sun on the other hand is different it’s axis of rotation is vertical, but the magnet poles are tilted ~12 degrees, so as it rotates on an average of 27.325 day period, the polarity of the magnetic fields felt via the solar wind, shifts from the result of the orientation determined by the position of the rotating magnetic poles of the sun.

    The inner core of the moon has frozen, the outer core of the Earth is still molten, and a concentration of the magnetically permeable materials that make up the earth. These pulses of alternating North then South magnetic field shifts has been going on since before the Earth condensed into a planet and then was later struck by a Mars sized object (so the current theory goes), that splashed off most of the crust.

    Most returned to the Earth, some was lost into interplanetary space, and some condensed into the moon. Somewhere in the process the center of mass of the moon gravitated toward the surface that faces the Earth, before it froze, causing that denser side to always face the Earth.

    It is not the center of mass of the Earth that scribes the orbital path of the Earth about the sun but the center of mass of the composite Earth / moon barycenter that lies about 1,200 kilometers off of the center of mass of the Earth, always positioned between the center of the earth and the center of the Moon. So as the Moon rotates around the earth to create the lunar light phases, the center of mass of the earth goes from inside to out side, around the common barycenter. As the Moon moves North / South in it’s declination, the center of mass of the earth goes the opposite direction to counter balance, around their common barycenter that scribes the smooth ellipse of the orbit around the sun. So really the Earth makes 13 loops like a strung out spring every year.

    The magnetic impulses in the solar wind has driven the Moon / Earth into the declinational dance that creates the tides in phase in the atmosphere, because of the pendulum type movement the Moon hangs at the extremes of declination almost three days with in a couple of degrees then makes a fast sweep across the equator at up to 7 to 9 degrees per day. At these culminations of declination movement the polarity of the solar wind peaks and reverses, causing a surge in the reversal of the ion flux generated as a result. Because of the combination of both peak of Meridian flow surge in the atmosphere, and reversal of ion charge gradient globally occurs at the same time like clock work most severe weather occurs at these times.

    Because of the semi boundary conditions caused by mountain ranges, the Rockies, Andes, Urals, Alps, Himalayas, that resulted in topographical forcing into a four fold pattern of types of Jet stream patterns, I had to use not a 27.325 day period but a 109.3 day period to synchronize the lunar declinational patterns into the data to get clearer repeatability than the same data set filtered by Lunar phase alone.

    There is a pattern of 6554 days where in the inner planets, Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury, make an even number of orbital revolutions, and return to almost the same relative position to the star field.

    By adding 4 days to this period I get 6558 days the time it takes the Moon to have 240 declinational cycles of 27.325 days, so that by using 6558 days as a synchronization period I get the lunar Declination angle, lunar phase, perigee / apogee cycle, and the relative positions of the inner planets to align from the past three (6558 day) cycles well enough that the average of the temperatures, and the totals of the precipitations give a picture of the repeating pattern, from the last three to forecast the next almost 18 year long string of weather related events, with a better accuracy than the forecast available for three to five days from NOW from conventional NWS / NOAA sources.

    So by looking at the periods of declinational movement and the four fold pattern of Rossby wave propagation, while maintaining the inner planet synchronization. I get all of these influences in sync to look almost the same, as the current conditions, even to periods of hail, and tornado production.

    When the outer planets are added into the mix, they are out of phase in regard to the inner planet / Lunar patterns, and their influences are not in Sync with these background patterns. There are lines of magnetic force that connect each planet to the sun, and these revolve around with the planets naturally.

    As the Earth’s orbit takes it between these outer planets and the sun (at Synodic conjunctions), the increase in magnetic fields carried via the solar wind, (to effect this outer planet coupling) is felt upon the Earth’s magnetosphere, and results in a temporary increase in the pole to equator charge gradient then a discharge back to ambient levels (about a two week long up then down cycle time), how this interferes or combines with the “usual lunar / inner planet patterns” is determined by whether it is in, or out of phase with the background patterns.

    During normal charge cycles more moisture is driven into the atmosphere carrying positive Ions, along the ITCZ, and in discharge cycle phases waves of free electrons, and negative ions are sent down from the poles into the mid-latitudes. Charge cycles inhibit precipitation amounts and discharge cycles produce increased precipitation amounts along existing frontal boundaries, due to changes in residual ion charge differences between the air masses.

    There is a seasonal increase in magnetic fields coupled from the center of out galaxy to the sun that peaks in mid June (summer solstice), and then decreases till winter solstice. As the magnetic charging cycle associated with this build up in Northern hemisphere Spring, it brings on a bias for surges of positive ionized air masses, that produces surges of tornadoes in phase with the lunar declinational culminations, and other severe weather, will also be enhanced by Synod conjunctions with outer planets, by the same increases of positively charged ions. The closer the timing of the conjunction to a peak lunar culmination the sharper the spike of production, like cracking a whip.

    During discharge phases from summer solstice through fall in general, tropical storms manifest as large scale discharge patterns to ring the moisture, heat, and excess ions out of the tropical air masses. Outer planets conjunctions at these times help to build moisture reserves in the atmosphere, during their ion charge contribution, and enhance storms to category 4 and 5 levels when in phase with their discharge phase influences.

    From a viewpoint of how the assemblage of parts seamlessly fits together,the only thing you have to do, is to watch the (short but seemingly) endless stream of (every 15 minute) infrared and/or vapor satellite photos animated, (after fixing the jumping around of the originals, due to lack of foresight, that they might be useful some day), and synchronized by 27.32 days periods, to see the repeating cycles.

    To set up five tiled windows, in the first show day #1 through #27 sequentially, then as they continue on in the same stream, the cycle of the first 27 days continues anew in window #2, synchronized by Lunar declination to #1. Till they spill over into window #3 stepping in phase with the other two, #4 the same idea gives you the four basic patterns of the Rossby wave 109.3 day cycle, of global circulation, that then repeat but seasonally shifted.

    In window #5 then would be the first repeat of window #1 in the same phase of the same pattern, and should look a lot like window #1. As the progression through the total series, proceeds, when you get 6558 days into the five stacks, a 6th window opens and the original day #1 in window #1 opens as #1 in window #6. As the series progresses on, real data can be viewed, in the real interactions going on.

    This would give you a look into the cyclic pattern that develops from the repetitive interaction of the inner planets, and tidal effects, caused by the Lunar declination, phase, perigee/ apogee cycles.

    By adding a sliding ball, vertically moving up and down a +-30 degree scale bar (referenced from the Equator), on the side of each tile space, that shows the plot of the current Lunar declination for the time of each frame. Which will allow you to see the shifts in the Lunar declinational angle’s effects, as the 18.6 Mn signal progresses.

    By adding another slide bar of +-30 degrees (with the heliocentric synod conjunction with Earth, as the zero reference), at the top, of each tile you could view each outer planet as we pass them, as color coded discs labeled, J, S,U, N, shifting from left to right. From viewing this progression of the outer planets, the merit of their influences, can then be seen in the additional surges in ion flux as they go by. You can watch the changes in the normal background, of the global circulation driven by the moon and inner planets, affected by the outer planets.

    By adding in the surface maps for the past historic temperatures, dew points, precipitation, types, and amounts, as overlays onto the IR/VAPOR photos, the patterns will be abundantly clear to 10 year old school kids. At the same time, generating a good long term forecast, set of analogs to base the models upon.

    Once the amount of additional angular momentum, and the process of it’s coming and goings can be clearly seen, it can then be measured, it’s effects calculated, and incorporated into the climate models, as a real quantized feedback. thereby giving us a much better picture, of the interactions, of all of the parts of the puzzle.

    All of the necessary data is in the archives, and free to use, to those that have the where with all, to assemble the real truth, be it inconvenient or not. I will probably spend the rest of my life, trying to do it alone, out of my own funds, as I have done so far.

    For application in Quake sightings, and subsequent formulating hypothesis and developing forecast parameters, you could substitute, or add (if your video resolutions is good enough), intensity quantified dots on the surface of occurring quakes (play with color coded shift and fade out time, to see time shifts etc.) and a corresponding moving open circle, showing the moving location of the earth/moon center line.

    something to think about,
    Richard Holle

    Hi Richard and thanks for your contribution. You seem to be working along the same lines as Piers Corbyn and Ulric Lyons. I too am indebted to Carl Vale Smith for his contributions to our understanding of planetary motion. It’s fitting that his memory lives on in our efforts to understand more about the world and the cosmos we live in.

  4. My 2009 – 2010 Winter out look

    One of the problems with the current models is the reference time frame is very narrow for initial conditions, and changes with in the past three days, a lot of times, will introduce presistance of inertia, to the medial flows, for several days, consistent with the actual flows, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides, make their runs across the equator from one poleward culmination to another.

    Then as the tide turns and we have the severe weather bursts at declinational culmination, they get confused, or surprised, as the initial inertial effects reverse for about four days before the sweep to the other pole, that brings back the smooth flows, the models understand.

    So that when the Lunar declination went to Maximum North on December 3rd, turbulence and shear introduced into the atmosphere, from the turning tide, (the models do not know about), surprised them with the usual couple of tornadoes. Now (12-13-09) that we are ~20 degrees South Lunar declination, the models have a full buffer, of five days of linear inertial movement, from the Moon’s trip South across the equator (12-09-09) and is slowing it’s movement.

    Coming up on the Southern extent culmination, producing a secondary tidal bulge in the Northern Hemisphere, bringing us to the mid point of a 27.32 day declinational cycle (one of the four routine patterns that cycle on an 109.3 day period). This particular one (#1) that started back on Dec 3rd, has incursions of polar air masses that come down from Western Canada, through Montana and the Dakotas, to make up the Northern part of the atmospheric tidal bulge.

    So I would expect to see a large invasion of cold dry air sweep almost all the way to the Gulf coast again, then the produced frontal boundary with the interesting weather, that includes change state intense precipitation. Freezing rain, where the warm over runs cold, and snow where the cold undercuts the more sluggish warm air, still moving North East by inertia alone, severe weather to form in that trailing edge of the warm moist mass, that gets over taken from behind by the polar air mass that tries to follow the tidal bulge back to the equator, which for the next 4 of 5 days powers up the cyclonic patterns generated by carolis forces, and finishes out as the Moon approaches the equator again.

    Expect the same type of interaction again for a primary bulge production by the passage back North, culminating on 12-30-09, pumping in a solid polar air mass very consistent with the pattern we had on 12-03-09, (the North “lunar declination culmination”)[LDC], then (#2) the next Rossby wave / jet stream regime pattern, comes back into play with much more zonal flow, and air masses invading from the Pacific, (of the two sub types of) phase with lesser amounts of Gulf moisture entrainment in this one, more in the other #4.

    The (#3) third 27.32 day pattern with polar air masses invading in from the Minnesota / Great Lakes area and sweeping out through the Eastern sea board, and mostly zonal flow out west, from 01-27-10 till 02-23-10, comes next.

    The fourth 27.32 day cycle, that looks very similar to #2 but with much more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, usually has more hail and tornadoes associated with it than Pattern #4, and typically flows up Eastern side of tornado alley. Will be in effect from 02-23-10 through 03-22-10, and should produce the first big surge of severe tornado production, from about March 20th 2010, until about March 26 or later as the Next polar air mass cycle is coming out of western Canada, and should make for steep temperature gradients, and ion content differences.

    Richard Holle
    Link to site with the daily maps for the next 4 years.

  5. P.G. Sharrow says:

    The pumping of oceanic waters from one basin to another by the tides is quite possiable. The sun and lunar tides appear to us to rise and fall but, in fact, the water is being pulled up onto,or away from, the land as the water is trying to move toward the attractor. This can seen very well at Panama where the sea level of the Atlantic side is higher then the Pacific side. If tides only moved up and down the levels would be equal. One more clue as to the true nature of gravitional effects of one body on another.

  6. tallbloke says:

    Tidal theory is in a bad way. According to Miles Mathis, the tides may actually be caused by an electromagnetic repulsion between Moon and Earth, rather than a gravitaional attraction. He comes to this conclusion because if an attraction was responsible for tides, the barycentric tide would swamp both the lunar and solar tide. Miles has had to reformulate the law of gravity too. According to his theory, gravity is composed of two things, the acceleration which bodies have towards each other, and a repulsion force due to the E/M field all matter has.

    To see the trouble the standard theory is in on tides, have a look at his page : The trouble with tides.

  7. P.G. Sharrow says:

    Tallbloke; I just read the Miles Mathis paper, the algebra about glazed my eyes over although the reasoning looked correct.
    Algebraic formulas are handy for shorthand of thought and math calculations but they can lead one off on a tangent of erroneous thought. The second half was word pictures and easier to follow.
    When I do electronic or electrical engineering I use spread sheets with many interlocking formula. Still I do try to keep a mental picture of what the answer should be to prevent large mistakes. Most all formula will get you a close answer but not always a correct answer.
    My favorite erroneous formula is “E=MC2. While it is simple and gives a close enough answer, but it gives the wrong concept and leads to BS( bad science). If you like I can up load a paper I wrote on my aetherial concept of matter, particals and forces. This was developed to get a handle on mass / inertia and gravity.

  8. tallbloke says:

    I think Miles’ examination of gravity has a lot going for it, but his stuff on tides I’m unsure about at the moment. It looks like the barycentric tide just about balances the lunar tide, and the solar tide is around 46% of that as current theory says. I need to do more calcs before I say anything definite though. It’s been good to have my thought provoked on this though, because it raises the issue of the barycentric tide on the sun and the forces which balance it.

  9. comment above by;Ulric Lyons

    I don`t buy it, the Moon`s nodal cycle cannot be responsible for decadal changes in global temperature, only the Sun can do that. I see no mechanism for the nodal cycle to change phase to produce the 74.4yr cycle.
    I have plotted theoretical solar cycles at 18.03yrs, 71.95yrs and 76.74yrs, the latter two average at 74.35yrs, and harmonize (ratio of 16:15) at around 1150yrs, the length of the dominant cycle marking major warm and cold periods.

    Ulric Lyons

    The Saros cycle of 6585 days (241 lunar declinational cycles)where the orbital positions of the inner planets and Lunar declination repeats to bring the solar and lunar eclipses into a repeating pattern, is 18.02874 years.

    I am finding periods of 6558 days is 240 lunar declinational cycles, and the positions of the frontal boundaries as result of a four fold repeating of the Rossby wave patterns, repeats well enough to use as a better forecast for the whole next 6558 days than the weather service can do with models out past three days.

    To do that and keep the angle at culmination of declination the same, for the 18.6 year period in phase, I need to use a sort method of back ~6992 days, and then 2 periods of ~6558 days = a total of ~20108 days, for a period of 55.052 years, or 2.9598 18.6 year periods.
    This leads me to believe that there may be better sorting methods that will better account for the declinational tidal driving effects in the atmosphere.

    Under the assumption that Tornado generation may be due to repeating patterns of atmospheric shear / turbulence, like swirls in stream flows around rocks. I sorted tornado production numbers per data by the lunar declinational angle closet to the (center of the time window of daily concentrations) 1800 local time of the day of generation.

    I will be plotting graphs onto my web site with in a week or two, (dependent upon the contribution of my daughter’s free time I cannot control)she is my web site builder. Rough draft of the text to accompany the graphs follows, but will be further polished and embllished before posting to site…:

    Bringing Order out of Chaos

    Bringing order out of chaotic systems requires a prospective bigger than the problem needing to be solved. As long as the Meteorologists keep sorting data by man made systems of time keeping, and looking for patterns of order, from that basis, they will not find good answers. They need to look at natural systemic temporal rhythms to find the periods that are really driving the climate.

    At the end of the last Ice Age, the surges in the weather as it was shifting gears from one climate regime to another, was noticed by the people who lived on the haltingly retreating edge of the permafrost. Some of them noticed that there were long term patterns in the advance and retreat of the ice, and a gradual shift toward warmer climes, that allowed them new and better lifestyles in the expanded habitable zones.

    The answers they found by looking at things outside of themselves, gave them information that was helpful, encouraging them to look into the natural processes of every day life. There was a reason that the stone circles of Europe, like Stonehenge were built. There was a connection between the interactions of the movements of the stars and planets, Sun and the Moon, that became obvious to some who wondered about it a lot.

    Once again the problem of restoring order out of the apparent chaos, requires that we look out side of our perceived problems to find the answers. The current Weather / Climate debate is a prime example of trying to find order in a chaotic system to find guidance that works. Time devision into bits and pieces minutes, hours, weeks, months, years is a man made system trying to find order in natural rhythms.

    The long term patterns found by Milankovitch and Theodor Landscheidt, have their basis in natural periods of the movement of the Galaxy and the Solar System within it. The discussion goes on about the whether the effects, of the movement of the Sun about the Solar System barycenter, are key to this process or not. The rest of the debate about the driving effects of the shorter periods, is still up in the air, with too much focus on the surface of the Earth, to get good answers that work long term in forecasting weather and climate.

    The builders of Stonehenge found several interactive periods related to the Earth and the Moon’s interactions with the rest of the solar system. What they focused their attention on, was the Solar and Lunar declination, discovering the Metonic, and Saros cycles whereby the periods of the of the 18.6 year Mn pattern of the variation of the Moon’s declinational movement, synchronizes with the natural cyclic patterns of the orbits of the inner planets.

    The Metonic cycle is a 19 year period when the Lunar declination is at the culmination of movement on the same date as it was 19 years ago, as well as the same light phase. The Saros cycle is ~17 days longer than 18 years, and it is a repeating pattern of the position of the Earth / Moon and the inner planets due to harmonic interactions that cause the Solar / lunar eclipses to repeat predictably.

    Much work was done to investigate whether the light phases of the moon had any predictable effects on the weather that could be used as a forecast tool, nothing conclusive (that could be worked into a reliable forecast method) was found by the principal investigators, and funding support for all related studies was dropped. Numerical models became the preferred method of extrapolating the current surface conditions out into the future as a weather forecast method. Due to natural cyclic periodicities in the weather that are not considered by these models they have a usable limit of about 7 to 10 days.

    With the advent of the space age, and weather satellite photo coverage I started to investigate the natural cyclic patterns in the solar system, to see if there might have been something useful that was over looked. In all of the textbooks that teach about atmospheric circulation, in the initial chapters about tidal effects they discuss ocean tides and that “in an unbounded ocean” you won’t see height changes, that are due to the tidal bulge inertia running up the slope of the shore boundary.

    So in the atmosphere (which is mostly unbounded) you should just see turbulence generated instead. Looking at satellite photos there is a lot of turbulence, that seems to slosh around a lot. So I started to look at the periods in the orbital dynamics of the Earth / Moon system and it’s common barycenter.

    The magnetic poles of the sun are tilted ~12 degrees from the rotational axis of the sun, with a rotational period of about 27.32 days, about the same period of the declinational movement of the moon. Looking into research as to why that might be I found there was no real known reason (or stated as such) why the moon had a declinational component to it’s orbit. Upon further investigation I saw that the two periods were synchronized to with in a couple of minutes as far back as the Naval Office Ephemeris could tell me.

    With a work history of many years of electronics repair service, I thought that maybe they were in harmonic oscillation, the moon being magnetically driven by the cyclic flux carried in the solar wind shifting as the sun rotated. Sure enough, the research showed there was a nice strong regular signal in solar wind polarity shifts. So I did the scientific thing, and formed a hypothesis of the interactions to test the idea.

    The solar wind inductive effects, drives the lunar declinational movement, which in turn drives the atmospheric declinational tides. Because of the pendulum type movements of the declinational movement the moon hangs at the culmination almost three days, the same time as the polarity of the solar wind peaks and reverses. It should produce surges in the meridional flow that would be visible in the satellite photos.

    It was not only visible, but obvious that the declinational flow surges from the lunar tides, produce most of the severe weather outbreaks, and seems to drive both the short period, and decade length atmospheric patterns of ocean basin oscillations.

    So how to show the connection in weather patterns I thought? Since the correlation seen in the severe weather outbreaks was so pronounced. I tried by sorting patterns of tornado production, by periods of 27.32 days, 19 years the Metonic cycle, and the ~18 year period Saros cycles. Results posted below….

    First the way tornado production is looked at by the mainstream, production by Julian date….

    [line graph of tornado production by Julian date]

    verses the way it looks expanded vertically by lunar declination …

    [Lunar declinational graph of tornado production by Julian date]

    it looked fairly good compared to the plotting by Julian date, so I looked at the Metonic cycle pattern expanded out some.

    [graph of Metonic cycle tornado production]

    But when I looked at the plotting by Saros cycle, the patterns just snapped together much better, and seemed to show tighter more repeatable patterns…

    [graph of tornado production by Saros cycle period]

    Below is an expanded scale of the production for 2008, 2009 and would be 2010, to compare the past Metonic cycles to the present cycle, for a better detailed comparison.

    [graph of Metonic cycle detail (3 years)]

    Then the same current three years referenced by the Saros cycle past history…

    [graph of the Saros cycle detail (3 years)]

    By 1990 I was plotting local weather data for the surrounding counties in North Central Kansas, and it seemed to work better than the NWS forecasts, just by sorting weather data by the Metonic cycle, going back (2 Metonic cycles) 38 years to the same date then pulling data from either side by the Saros cycle periodicities. By the time I started to acclimate a couple years of forecast results, I saw that it was doing a better job forecasting the previous year than the supposed current.

    I had the chance to go to Boston for a week, I tried to talk to some people at M.I.T., they just referred me to the reference library, where they had synoptic maps back to 1800’s, and file drawers full of high resolution satellite photos. Given the chance to look at satellite photos, I got busy pulling out daily prints of the 1800 IR photos, laid them out side by side, to see what the 27.32 day pattern repeated like, looking at it from space.

    I laid out three cycles of about 27 days long and noticed they had grown a day, to 82 days due to the .32 day adding effects. The second set of 27 did not look much like the 1st and 3rd set, so I got out some more, ended up with four sets of 27, 27, 28, 27 days, still the 1st and 3rd looked similar, but so did the 2nd and 4th to each other, but not so much to the 1st and 3rd. Pulled out four more sets of 27, laid them in a second row beneath the first. I saw a four fold pattern of Rossby wave patterns that repeated as sets of fours.

    By this time Peter Stone had gotten a free moment that I could talk to him about why I was there, and I took a set of four photos (all from the days of Maximum North Lunar declination culmination) to his office and laid them out so he could see them, but not the date stamps at the tops, asked him how long apart they were taken, and he guessed that they had to be only hours apart because they were so similar. When shown the dates, and that they were almost a month apart, he got interested enough that my 10 minutes stretched into 35 minutes, before he had to catch his flight, to be the Key note speaker at the Madrid International Conference.

    Spent more time over the next two days, looking through the photos and synoptic maps, and found that the four cycle repeat went unbroken as far back as they had data. Put every thing away and thought about what I had found, there was nobody there to talk to about it, story of my life. I went to the book store and bought as many textbooks as I could find that I had not yet read, and went home.

    When I got home, I bought some map making software, and the “TD 3200 Coop Extension Summary of the day” CD rom data set, started to make maps from the national data set, this time based on a pattern of 240 declinational cycles which is just one 27.32 day period short of the Saros cycle, centered on a date 13,550 days before the present date, and 6558 days either side of that reference.

    The composite maps this sorting method of data generates, is much better than the other two patterns I have tried before. With the maps generated from the composite of the three past cycles, looking as good as the current radar, most of the time. About this time my daughter April was working as a front end architect for an interactive web marketing firm, she suggested that maybe the programmer could help me with an program to automate the map making process and put this site back on line.

    The process of pulling past cycles and combining them together to form the maps, being automated sped up the process enough that a year’s worth of forecast, takes a couple weeks to produce, and took a lot of the uncertainty out compared to the cut, paste, drag, and drop method of compiling the data by hand, into daily sets of data to generate the maps. The current maps on this site were compiled and generated in August through December of 2007, so have a lead time of at least two years, although as they stand now, the data in any one map is at least 19 years older than the forecast date.

    I had a problem with the temperatures being seasonally shifted forward 11 days per each cycle, so the average temperatures generated were off about a month from seasonal. Made a temporary repair by pulling up an additional data cycle date from 54 days later, so I added into the averaging three more sets of data that left it with in 7 to 10 days of seasonally centered, but then combines the 1st set with the 3rd set, and the 2nd set with 4th set every cycle for temperatures, which brings them into much better overall agreement, but washes out the shifts of intense cold from East and West of the great lakes by combining them.

    It really needs to be set up as a gridded set of anomalies for each of the stations from past records (I would recommend 60 years minimum timespan for the average) by forecast seasonally appropriate date, to adjust the filtered data from the single right cycle, referenced from the seasonally normal. This would better show the locations of the surges in cold temperatures, as an improvement over what I have now on my site. There is only so much I can get done with a passive program, I would like to assist any one who would be able / willing to let me help them tweak this process out, and put in adjustments for differences in solar cycle activity levels, as well as feed backs for adjustments due to changes in the (more recent) past 54 day or 109 day cycles.

    The trends seen in the long term cycle of normals forecast from this method, can be used to separate out the 18.6 cyclic influence on the climate drivers to get a better handle on the solar influence and the interactions of the outer planets on the production of tornadoes, generation and intensification in the global production of cyclones, hurricanes, giving a method to forecast the timing and location of tropical storms not just the number expected each year.

    So how and why does it work? The details as I see them.

    If we start with the studies of what works in climate forecasting, the Milankovitch cycles, and expand on what has turned out to be true about solar cycles according to Theodor Landscheidt, ( the only one to correctly forecast the long solar minimum we are passing through).

    The evidence points to the long to mid term natural variability factors, as being the effects of the rotation or the galaxy, and the swirl imparted to the local area of the spiral arm we seem to reside in (Milankovitch), and by the further modulation of this movement, by the outer planets effects on the barycenter of the solar system, that moves the sun’s center of mass around as it tries to stay magnetically and gravitationally centered in the swirling magnetic fields, plasma, and dust clouds, and other stars joining us in this dance to the celestial music.

    Landscheidt found the driving forces of the planetary inertial dampening of the system, and defined it to the point of predictability, it only seems that that the next steps would be to analyze the effects of the interactions of the inner planets, which have a rhythmic pattern to their orbital relationships, and their relations to the weather patterns they share.

    The 18.6 year Mn pattern of Minimum to Maximum extremes, drive the decade long oscillations of the ocean basins, in combination with the timing of the Synod conjunctions of the outer planets, as a compounding signal, varying the resultant strengths and weakness of the combined cycles. The Lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere, are the major mixing mechanism for the transportation, of tropical ocean warmth, and moisture over the land masses, into the mid-latitudes and polar regions, where it radiates away into space.

    Because of the semi boundary conditions caused by mountain ranges, the Rockies, Andes, Urals, Alps, Himalayas, that results in topographical forcing of the turbulence of the tides, into a four fold pattern of types of Rossby wave, and resultant Jet stream patterns.

    By subtracting one, 27.32 day declinational cycle from the Saros cycle, I get 6558 days, the time it takes the Moon to have 240 declinational cycles of 27.32 days, so that by using 6558 days as a synchronization period to keep the four fold symmetry, I also get the lunar Declination angle, lunar phase, perigee / apogee cycle, and the relative positions of the inner planets to align from the past three (6558 day) long cycles well enough that the average of the temperatures, and the totals of the precipitations give a picture of the repeating pattern, from the last three to forecast the next almost 18 year long string of weather related events.

    If you further look at the homopolar generated fields of the Earth, which have an average strength of ~90 volts DC per meter as you go from the Equator toward the poles or up from the surface, quite unnoticeable to people moving around in it, because it has a corresponding steady magnetic field that sustains it there. These fields and voltages are influenced by changes in the interplanetary magnetic field strength. When stronger shifts in the magnetic field strength are felt by the Earth, small changes are made in the rotational speed of the earth, as length of day [LOD] changes, due to the additional magnetic driving, or slowing of the angular momentum.

    At the same time there is a shift in the standing charge gradient, from the poles [negative] to [positive] at the equator, in phase and proportion to the driving magnetic field strength changes. The magnetic impulses in the solar wind, from the rotation of the ~12 degree tilt of the magnetic pole of the sun off from the vertical axis of rotation, alternates the polarity of the magnetic fields introduced into the solar wind.

    Which have driven the moon / earth into the declinational dance that creates the lunar declinational atmospheric tides in phase in the atmosphere. Because of the pendulum type movement, the moon hangs at the extremes of declination almost three days with in a couple of degrees, then makes a fast sweep across the equator at up to 7 to 9 degrees per day.

    The center of mass (COM) of the Earth is leveraged by the barycenter of the earth / moon system, acting as the fulcrum, suggested by Archimedes, from which the moon poises a counter balancing movement of the COM of the Earth, moving it some 800 to 1200 kilometers above and below the average ecliptic plane value. The actual value is determined by the included angle of the moon determined by the 18.6 year Mn cycle of variation. At the same time by a slightly different period by the retrograde motion of the moon, that cause the more easily seen light phases, also moves the COM of the Earth in and out from the sun, the distance the barycenter is out from the COM of the Earth.

    At the culminations of Lunar declinational movement, the polarity of the solar wind peaks and reverses, in phase with and/or because of, the relative motion of the Earth’s COM to the average location of the ecliptic plane, causing a surge in the pole to pole differential in charge potential, of the ion flux generated in the Earth’s homo polar generated fields as a result.

    Because of the combination the peak of Meridional flow surge in the atmosphere, and reversal of ion charge gradient globally occurs synchronously, most severe weather occurs at these times. The mechanism I hypothesis is due to changes in the ion gradient across frontal boundaries, impeding precipitation rates as the homopolar generator effects are in charge mode, and increasing the precipitation rates as it goes into the discharge phase.

    The interaction of the inner planets, of which the Earth is the only one with a large moon and strong active magnetic fields, and the moon in the pattern found in the Saros cycle timing drives a resultant background pattern in the weather that is further compounded by the interactions of the Earth passing the four greatest outer planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) which also have strong magnetic fields and large amounts of magnetically permeable materials in their make up.

    By the extension of basic electronics rules of the relationships between magnetic fields, permeable materials and, shifts in induction due to changes in field strength. The magnetic fields present in the solar wind as it streams out toward any/all of the planets should have a concentration of magnetic field lines, in strength relative to the magnetic conductance of the sum of magnetically permeable materials invested in that planetary body. Irrespective of the strength of existing planetary permanent magnet fields.

    As deep water moves smoothly, periods of increased magnetic conduction through the solar wind will appear to slow down particles and smooth up the flow, along the ecliptic plane and most of the increase in magnetic flux will be seen in the greater density of the extended loops coming off the poles of the sun and coupling back down through the poles of the affected planets.

    In the early stages of the deployment of the Ulysses satellite I was able to find these patterns in the snatches of data released via news service press releases, that are all that is available to the general public, stories about the surges in magnetic fields seen in the Earth’s vicinity were also seen elsewhere as well. The periods were also reveled as Ulysses went over the poles of the sun and special mention was made that the polar flux surges were much more intense (than expected) but still in phase with “the normal” cyclic patterns as seen from the Earth.

    I did not get to influence the selection of “data stream sections of interest studied” and written about during the life span of the Ulysses project, and the data base was never available to the general public, and is now archived away off line, still awaiting further study to prove/disprove the existence of concentrations of magnetic flux coupling through the planets as a source of inductive drivers of the weather.

    What I have come to surmise is that as the earth has Synod (heliocentric) conjunctions, with the outer planets the earth passes into a concentrated magnetic flux (about 30 degrees wide) that is felt as increases in homopolar driving forcing, increases in global charge gradient, and the LOD of the Earth to increase up to the point of most intense coupling, then rapidly decrease back to the ambient levels for the normal annual pattern. The amount of this effect is proportional to the strength of the total magnetic flux coupled through the Earth, then on through the outer planet(s) in question.

    As in normal electronic calculations of magnet fields strength of coupling, it is relative to the shape size and volume of total magnetically permeable material involved. The addition of another planetary body in the conduction pathway causes an increase above what the two bodies would conduct separately. When more than two planets are involved, the coupling becomes greater as a result of the compositing of the total conductance increases, each body tends to try to focus the ion stream following the magnetic flux concentration to center on itself.

    With the heliocentric passing or Synod conjunctions of outer planets like we had with Neptune and Uranus, due to their slow relative movement across the star field, the (felt annually) total combined field strength as the earth passed them kept growing to the point of their heliocentric conjunction on April 20th 1993, then started to decrease again. The Earth was passing them on July12th in 1993, and as they started to separate again by about ~3 days further apart per year, as seen from the earth’s orbit, their combined magnetic fields strength dropped off and spread out, as well as shifted (~2.5 days for Neptune, ~4.5 days per year for Uranus) later into the year.

    As the earth passes any of the outer planet heliocentricly the increase in magnetic flux felt by the earth due to the focusing of fields from the sun towards the outer planet(s) increases the charge gradient from pole to equator, and adds to the displacement volume of air mass from equator to mid-latitudes in phase with the declinational tidal effects, as well as the total ion charge gradient potential across frontal boundaries, as the moisture content in the air masses required to carry positive ions, negative ions can travel as free electrons, but to move positive ions require molecules missing valance electrons.

    These additional surges of moisture laden positively ionized air combine with the normal patterns of declinational atmospheric tidal movement, so add strength to them when in phase, and decrease it some when out of phase. This shift in balance can be the determining factors when watching hurricanes fizzle, or rapidly gain strength as they develop, consideration of these forces will add much to the knowledge of their behavior, and hence the predictability of tropical storms in both hemispheres.

    What I have found in tornado production times, rates, and patterns in the coming and going of the 18.6 year Mn pattern of lunar declinational tidal interactions, carries over into driving the patterns of Global decade long oscillations across ocean basin patterns of production, as a composite of the the combined effects of the the Saros cycle period of inner planet effects and the combining of the ~172 year repeating patterns of outer planet influences on the sun and inner solar system. This greater compounded signal is what makes weather and climate appear chaotic.

    The further investigation of the compounding cycles in light of the electro-magnetic entanglements, between the planets playing in the solar wind, showing up in the ionosphere and resultantly being felt at the surface, as the drivers of the “Natural Patterns of Variability” that need to be understood to make sense out of the long term global circulation patterns to generate long term weather forecasts, that will show how to further generate climate studies to forecast the real longer term trends that are really responsible for driving the climate.

    As I get data sorted for other parameters of cyclic interaction, with the lunar declinational tides they will appear here as well. SOI, Hurricane production, patterns of hail production, feel free to add feed back, or join in on this interesting new area of investigation. The tabled data and the extraction programs I had written to do this investigation, could be presented in person if you are interested in covering my travel expenses, or maybe just posted on a ftp server some where.

  10. Any criticism / feed back edits you might like to see before posting to web site would be welcome and very much appreciated.

    Much more descriptive text is expected to be added to the footnoted area under the graphs to more fully, what I think I am seeing in the patterns shown in the graphs themselves.

    At this time the graphs are made in the Delta Graph software that produced them but not yet converted to .jpg format of uploading onto the website, as I have no idea what size / scale constraints April will force me to use, to get it to display properly on line.

  11. tallbloke says:

    Richard, you have made me late for work this morning.

    Thank you 🙂

    This is a fascinating read, and a valuable contribution to our understanding of the electromagnetic forces affecting our weather and climates.

    I will be back with more comment and questions later.

  12. The past three days I have been downloading the WMV files from this site today I got to look at them from front to back then spend some more time looking for repeating patterns in them 18 or 19 years apart…

    I was astounded how close the months the Saros and Metonic periods match each other,(given the referencing by the declinational periods being mentally needed done.

    If this person were to show these by lunar declination periods rather than monthly segments, they could be used to produce a very good long range tool to show the relationships between the 18.6 year Mn signal and trade wind comings and goings. El nino effects and PDO by common definition…

    I was in awe of how close the patterns of hurricane tracks seem to follow from 18 or 19 years ago to the current periods…
    I need to look again but I think that the visual combination of both the 18 and 19 year signals averaged or combined ,might do a better job of forecasting the repeat pattern, as it is then closer to the real 18.6 year signal..

    I want to kick this idea around a while before I try to contact the producer of these maps to see if they would be interested in plotting them by 27.32 day periods in stepped loops so you could see on the same screen 8 tiles of 27 day progressively stepped loops that run continuously from start to finish, so the progress of the four fold pattern could be seen in how it presents in the Pacific Basin.

    This method would be easy to visualize the repeating patterns, and a second set of images could be generated that would show the 18 year and 19 year past synchronized with the current cyclic pattern to give an extended look see into how things might progress for the next 15 years or so….

  13. tallbloke says:

    Richard, I understand that your emphasis is primarily on forecasting, and more power to your elbow. I am trying to understand the links between these lunar cycles and similar length solar cycles, and the wider planetary interactions which shape the sun’s barycentric orit.

    You mentioned in your post earlie that the sun’s magnetic axis is 12 degrees offset to it’s rotational axis. This is itself at around 7 degrees to the plane of invariance. Do you know which way the magnetic axis is orientated relative to that tilt? Does it ‘cancel it out’ or add to it?


  14. I have not had the time or sources of information to go to the depths you have, and do not have any source of the information you are asking for in regard to the plane of invariance, as I have not gotten to look into those aspects yet..
    I have been over on the other tread just reading, playing catch up on your normal interactions with others i have seen on line for years, Ray Tomes and others but did not get to chat with much.

  15. tallbloke says:

    Hi Richard, no problem, just thought you might have the info about the magnetic axis as a ‘spare fact’. It’s looking like lots of things in the solar system bounce around on the same set of resonances, so what causes what is a moot point to some extent, there is a mutually reinforcing feedback perhaps. The Moon clearly has a very strong influence on the earth, being so proximate, and the coincidence between it’s cycles and other solar system periodicities amplifies it’s effects.

    Your contributions here are truly appreciated and valuable. Please help us develop this further with your insights into electromagnetic and terra-lunar dynamics.

  16. Geoff Sharp says:

    Very interesting read Richard, your theory shows the solar wind as a major component. I have been researching the solar wind recently and am amazed at the lack of knowledge regarding its origin. I have plotted the hourly figures from 1996 to now and the results surprised me. The solar wind is largley unaffected by the solar dynamo and seems to have a mind of its own to some degree. There looks to be a rough 27 day frequency in the data but that looks to have changed around 2004/2005 at the same time the Ap index took a step change. The two parts ie speed and magnetic strength both contributing to the solar system climate.

    The article I wrote may be of interest to you.

    Also looking at the adjusted LOD data there is a sub frequency that might also line up with the solar rotation.

    The step change in Ap and solar wind just happens to coincide with the Sun entering its very altered retrograde inner loop around the SSB, perhaps the solar wind is also affected by whatever the angular momentum markers are telling us.

  17. Paul Vaughan says:

    Richard, I think academics would keenly devote a few minutes to looking at some good examples of stackplots at the 2 main lunar frequencies you note. I believe their patience would also extend to a cautionary note about sidebands.

    Others may be interested in other info you present, but most academics need efficiency. One option is to organize the info (in bite-sized, themed chunks) by section so audience members can strategically target their legitimately limited attention. It is advisable to eliminate all traces of redundancy.

    Personally I have no interest in textbook notes & speculation about physics. I need to see graphically exactly what you are doing with the lunar period stackplots, with absolutely minimal accompanying exposition.

    Others’ interests will differ from mine and you may not have time/resources to cater to all potential members of your audience.

  18. Thank you I will edit accordingly..

  19. Paul Vaughan says:

    Richard, can you very briefly clarify which era (& locales) you study? I’m particularly interested in knowing the start-date of the records you use.

  20. Currently I am forecasting (with maps)for the contiguous US only, The effect is global, the data base I am using now is from 1950 through 2003. Mentioned above the start date for a forecast 1st cycle is 20,108 from the date to be forecast (D2F)the 2nd date I pull data from is 13,550 days before D2F, and the 3rd date I pull data from is 6,992 days before D2F.

    I average the temps, using a second set 54 days latter than each of the above dates, for a total of 6 sets of daily data to compensate for seasonal drifting.

    I just use the three prime date of data combined by plotting all precipitation no averaging, (but when I have multiple reports from the same station over the three tracks I use the highest amount of the three.)just parallel storm tracks that usually overlap as a result

    I have records going back to the 1880’s for the USA but don’t use them at this time, should I be using some other cyclic periods as well?

  21. The tornado information data set starts in 1950 up to present updated off of internet.

  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’d be very curious to know if your method works as well for 1915-1960 as it does for 1960+. A comparison with 1890-1915 would also be of interest. (I may elaborate on why in the days ahead…)

    On a separate (but related) note, here’s something I found today while looking for something else:

    Perigaud, C. (2009). ENSO modulations by 14.7 day- and 18.6 yr- lunar cycles.

    Click to access Perigaudabstract.pdf


    Click to access Perigaud.pdf

  23. regard the links they are looking at the harmonics between the lunar phase and declination that the common modulation of the periods drives the QBO here they aqe seeing phase modulation on top of the declination at the period that is closest to have of their periods but is a result of the beat frequency of the two.

    because of the -11 day off from 18 years on the 6558 day cycle, and the +17 day off from 18 years period on the Saros cycle, there will be slewing of the reference effect from the solar angle (day of the year) when you move more than four cycles for the 6558 or more than three cycles of the Saros cycle periods.

    I would check them separately and be off about 54 days, which is half of the 109.3 days period of the four fold pattern, which will not be as bad as an odd number of 27.32 periods.

    My daughter is creating the pages for the “research” section in a word press blog format, she says it should be available for viewing by tomorrow complete.

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    Can you explain the color-coding?

  25. I started the plotting from 1-1-1950, the start of the data the auto selection of the color coding is blue the first cycle through, red the second, green the third and the orange? is the forth or current cycle.

  26. Paul Vaughan says:

    The ‘automatic’ color coding does not appear to be consistent across the 6558d, Saros, & Metonic plots – am I right about this?

  27. No,,,It is the same color code on all plots, the length of period causes a lower number of years to show as yellow on the Metonic cycle plottings.

    It is a little sloppy in that the program allows the over plotting or covering of prior data by the more recent, I could not get all data to stack by size order as I used to with the Macintosh version of the older program.

  28. Paul Vaughan says:

    Revised: The color indicates cycle number (not date).

    Comment: The overwhelmingly dominant period appears to be the year.

  29. I will make and post a more expanded graph of just 2009 from the 6558 day cycle to show the data hidden behind the current bubbles with color coded legend to clarify, would that help?

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    We’re cross-posting. It’s cycle number, not date (unless you clarify otherwise).

  31. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’m noticing the diagonal patterns. Does each dot represent the number of tornadoes in USA on a single day?

  32. Dot volume represents number of tornadoes generated by date scale on graph damn program will not let me add text where it used to be in mac version, was click able selections for text additions to legends. The record number was 148 the largest red glob.

    I think the diagonal patterns are atmospheric harmonics in the circulation patterns. Other than the declinational cycles them selves which are the sinusoidal patterns.

  33. put up new single year plot for 2009 more expanded with legends the best it let me make at this time.

  34. Just took a close up look at the 2009 plot and there are little diagonal steps on the four color codes that show up as the variation in the actual declinational angle as it slews slightly between cycles. Any other problems you have noticed I need to fix? Thanks for the peer review on this.

  35. Paul Vaughan says:

    Stratospheric volcanoes appear related to lunar apse & nodal cycles (LAC&LNC):

    More detail:

    Vaughan, P.L. (2010). Volcanic Activity, the Sun, the Moon, & the Stratosphere.
    (updated Mar. 12, 2010)

  36. Paul Vaughan says:

    Clarification Richard: I’m asking about the temporal resolution. (I understand dot-size – but what is the temporal step-size? 1 day?)

  37. Yes daily totals for each day, where there were none there is a tiny dot of about 2 pixels, that shows up in the print out, of the raw graphs.

    I picked the lunar declination relative to the coordinates on the equator @ 90 degrees West longitude
    at 1800 GMT the center of the peak of tornado production per each daily period. Trying to get the time frame as close to relative as possible.
    I hope to do a plotting of each tornado sized by F value at the declination it was spotted/reported time wise. then relative to lat and long of the surface of the earth where it occurred. It is a hella lot more data points, and am debating with myself as to which type of graph to show it best.

    When I get this information processed I would like to get the hail information from Omaha hail and crop ins inc. They have daily records of crop claims recorded by lat / long and severity of damage with a data base from 1880 to present with as many data points as 16 per square mile (one for each field claimed as small as the owner’s field size 40 acres the minimum insurable field size. I have processed some of their data in the past, events of 16,000 to 20,000 claims per date of occurrence is about max. 800 to 12,000 not unusual several times a month.

    With hail production seems centered on times the frontal boundary exhibits less shear, just before and after the max LDC, leaves an ~5 day window where the tornadoes peak out.

  38. Paul Vaughan says:

    So Richard, you see the LNC standstills (extremes of high latitude) as the primary feature of interest in the graphs? If so, this issue of the new software not stacking the dots by-size may be important, because from what I can see (as the plots are now) the clustering around extreme declinations appears related to the slow-down (“standstill”). However, you’ve seen far more graphs than we have, so my guess is you’re seeing something that might not be so obvious to us? The diagonal features were what caught my attention once I saw past the annual pattern.

  39. Paul Vaughan says:

    Richard, have you tried making a color-contour plot with day-of-year on the x-axis, phase of the lunar draconic month on the y-axis, & tornado production on the z-axis (i.e. represented by color variation)? The reason I suggest using phase instead of declination is that it varies linearly. By using color-contouring, you can avoid the dot-overlap issue.

    Then if you want to compare different phases of the LNC, the way to do that is with a “coplot” (pronounced “co” “plot” (not “cop” “lot”), which means “conditioning plot”). If you need a reference, see “Data Visualization” by W.S. Cleveland – far more useful than 5 dozen theoretical courses in mathematical statistics!!! In a nutshell, what you would do is have separate color-contour plots for different phases of the LNC. You could stack them in an animated “.gif” to visualize cycle evolution.

    The problem with declination is that the nonlinearity introduces a form of confounding that interferes with judgement. This is analogous to the number of daylight hours as a function of time of year. Near the equinoxes daylight hours per day are changing fast, whereas they “hang” near the solstices. This alone causes clustering near the extremes – even for a variable showing no relation (& that is key). By contrast, phase changes linearly, facilitating sober judgement. The declination variable has a physical meaning, but that does not negate the need to rule out potential sources of confounding.

    When you have time, I look forward to seeing the graphs at the other of the 2 key timescales: 4 times the draconic month period, if I have successfully gleaned the 2 main points from your above notes (which I needed to “ski” (skim & skip) through due to a combination of volume & competing obligations).

    With the right images, you’ll only need 150 words to get your message across.


  40. Paul Vaughan says:

    Occasionally DVI & SAOT go with the contrast rather than the blend:

    For the earlier (SAOT) plot, I applied a switch (“indicator variable” interaction in the language of statistics) mid-20th century to flip from blend to contrast:

    I will need to take a late evening walk in the hills to think about which combinations of extremes (special alignments) can be involved in defining the contrasts (versus the blends).

    The longer-term envelopes (like mid-20th century SAOT & 16th century DVI) are another (probably more difficult to figure out) matter.

  41. Paul Vaughan says:

    Update – using harmonic superposition, a better alignment index has been developed:

  42. Paul Vaughan says:

    The phase-relationship here is not random:

    Also, the 90a envelope is “interesting”.

    Took a fair bit to get that in the format my wavelet algorithms require. Time to run some analyses…

  43. Paul Vaughan says:

    Note: I used the term “standstill” incorrectly above (relying on instinct about its meaning, before knowing its conventional use).

  44. I posted this thread as a link from my opening comment on here, so others could view the ideas shared here.

  45. […] the ocean air temperature cycles noted by Roger Andrews at around 110 years, we should also keep Harald Yndestad’s lunar tidal cycles of ~74 and 37 years in mind. These relate to Landscheidt’s ‘ big finger cycles‘. […]

  46. Ulric Lyons says:

    these should interest you Rog

    Click to access 8321.full.pdf

    note the 93yr eclipse cycle.

  47. Ray Tomes says:

    I am not aware of any 74.4 year lunar nodal cycle. Can you please explain what this is? The two lines labelled 18.6 and 18.0 years are changing too rapidly relative to each other, as such cycles would beat in a 558 year period.

    Long term climate records show fluctuations with periods 50 to 60 years. I think that this 74 year cycle is too long.

  48. E.M.Smith says:

    Haven’t had time to read all the comments, and it is late for me.

    I think a key point is that the 18.x year cycle has a 1/3 day ‘remainder’ of days. That means that the cycle does not repeat over the same patch of ocean until the third cycle. That gives a 3 Saros term, that gives the usual 60 ish year PDO cycle.

    The 74 year period looks like 4 x Saros cycles, so perhaps there is a local geography aspect that causes that part to do a ‘skip on’ on the usual 3 x repeat. (Other folks have found 60 ish day cycles of tides in other waters.)


    from paper:


    Also looking at PDO / 54-60 ish cycle and lunar pot stirring:

    The ocean is very cold, not too very far down, and tidal mixing force is larger than wind driven mixing. Plenty of opportunity for it to ‘do the deed’. (Also changed how much goes through Drake Passage vs cold water up the coast of S. America and more).

    Realize, too, that due to the planets causing the lunar and solar orbits to be synchronized (due to Orbital Resonance effects) solar influences will come on top of this. It can answer the “not enough” issues. It is not a matter of “either Sun XOR Moon”, but “Sun AND Moon” together.

    So add in some Svensmark cloud changes and some UV not warming deeply into the ocean just when the cold layer gets stirred… “win win”…

    Right now, we have a shortage of UV and extra IR. Surface water evaporating under IR influence so stays cool. UV not warming depth any more. At the same time, tidal mixing force that was a dead bottom is increasing; so cold deep water being stirred to the surface. Result is cold ocean at the surface and a little deeper down, but more rain from more IR driven evaporation. Rather what we are having. Lots of cold rain.

    Now add in some added clouds as the GCR effect hits…

  49. […] a nice confirmation of Harald Yndestad’s work on Long term lunar tides in the north Atlantic. He found a 74 yr […]

  50. RichardLH says:

    Well it looks like the wider Global Temperature data set match this finding rather well..

  51. tallbloke says:

    Thanks for that Richard, and welcome to the talkshop.

  52. RichardLH says:

    tallbloke says:

    February 11, 2014 at 9:56 pm

    “Thanks for that Richard, and welcome to the talkshop.”

    Been here before. Ask Tim.

    Took a while for me to get the details of how to present the filter choice point worked out. Been sparing with Nate Drake PhD and Jai Mitchel on WUWT and Nature.

    Always helps to have a good stone to sharpen one’s argument.

    The >15 year CTRM (Cascaded Triple Running Mean) with the Savitzky-Golay ‘projections’ (thanks to Nate 🙂 and the now merged Proxy sets (thanks Jai) seems to be one that helps to pry apart the opposing arguments quite well.

    Pitched at just over the decade and under the multi-decade and uncovering so well the ~60 year signal is just a bonus 🙂

  53. tallbloke says:

    I’ve been busy last couple of days with my political agenda and haven’t had time to follow, so you’ll need to bring me up to speed on these interesting sounding techniques. How about writing a guest post?

  54. RichardLH says:

    Sure – it’s just basically an implementation of the Running Means thread over on JCs by Greg Goodman (with the parameter chosen by V. Pratt of 1.2067 as the inter stage multiplier). Nice ‘Gaussian’, no distortions, low pass, broadband filter.

    The chosen 15 year roll off point is positioned where the ‘energy’ in the system is flattest so as to split the data into two nice stop/pass bands and also nicely separates the ‘signal’ from the ‘noise’.

    I moved over to R rather than the WFT plots I was using

    and people started to get very cross with me!

    The S-G ‘projection’ came from Nate Drake PhD (see if you want the long story on how that came about).

    Climate Scientist: I want a tool to examine Climate Temperatures.

    Geek: How do you define Climate?

    Climate Scientist: Longer than 10 years or so.

    Geek: So you want a tool that will show how the planet’s temperature responds in periods of more than 10 years or so?

    Climate Scientist: Yes.

    Geek: Well basic theory says that a Low Pass filter with a corner frequency of 15 years will do exactly what you want.

    Climate Scientist: But that’s not complicated enough and anyway that does not show me what I like to see. It says that there are natural oscillations in the signal and my theory says they don’t exist.

    Geek: ??????????

    So this is just the data and summaries of the data. Nothing more. I have a very vague theory of why this might be happening but…

    First things first. Get the observation that a ‘cycle’ of some sort is genuinely visible in the data. Then try and figure out where it comes from.

  55. RichardLH says:

    I did prepare a couple of word documents and submitted them to WUWT but they got rejected by Anthony. They probably need updating with R graphs rather than the WHT stuff I was using as that makes it much prettier and then merged into one document. It does contain a very speculative suggestion as to a possible underlying root cause. How do I send it to you?

    [Reply] Email sent

  56. tallbloke says:

    A full paper by Harald covering this stuff is available free here