Imminent Grand Minimum – New paper from Duhau and de Jager

Posted: June 20, 2010 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

From the ‘We shouldn’t say we told you so but we told you so’ dept.

Those of us interested in ‘Barycentric nonsense’ (T.M. Leif S.) have been saying for several years that the conjunction of Neptune and Uranus which has more or less coincided with the historical solar grand minima of the past indicated that there woud be a big slowdown in solar activity following their latest conjunction in 1993. I put up a post on predicting solar activity from planetary motion data some six months ago.  It seems mainstream solar physicists Duhau and de Jager have come to the conclusion that there is going to be another grand minium following the current solar cycle too.  There has been much debate over who this minimum should be named after if it comes to pass. Some say Landscheidt was the first to predict it, though he thought it would begin a cycle earlier. Other say Jack Eddy should get the honours, for his work elucidating the Maunder minimum and suggesting a Solar-activity-Earth-climate connection. Some even nominate Al Gore, just to extract the maximum irony.

Post your thoughts on this issue and the new paper form Duhau and de Jager  below.

Journal of Cosmology, 2010, Vol 8, 1983-1999.
JournalofCosmology.com, June, 2010


The Forthcoming Grand Minimum of Solar Activity

S. Duhau, Ph.D.1, and C. de Jager, Ph.D.2,
1Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad de Buenos Aires, 1428, Bs. As. Argentina.
2Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; P.O. Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, The Netherlands.


Abstract

We summarize recent findings about periodicities in the solar tachocline and their physical interpretation. These lead us to conclude that solar variability is presently entering into a long Grand Minimum, this being an episode of very low solar activity, not shorter than a century. A consequence is an improvement of our earlier forecast of the strength at maximum of the present Schwabe cycle (#24). The maximum will be late (2013.5), with a sunspot number as low as 55.

http://journalofcosmology.com/ClimateChange111.html

Gleissberg cycle

N.B. There is a regrettable printing error in Section 5
(Summary and Conclusions). In line 2 of the 2nd paragraph please read: ‘In
turn, that cycle *precedes* the forthcoming Grand Minimum…
“Solar activity is presently going through a
transition period (2000 – 2013). This will be followed by a remarkably low
Schwabe cycle, which has started recently. In turn that cycle precedes a
forthcoming Grand Minimum, most likely of the long type.“

H/T to Paul Vaughan for the addendum.

Comments
  1. Geoff Sharp says:

    Not sure about this one Rog, very little scientific fact illustrated in this report. Using the mythical Gleissberg cycle is always a worry in my book. Full of fluff and self references perhaps?

    The abstract mentions “These lead us to conclude that solar variability is presently entering into a long Grand Minimum, this being an episode of very low solar activity, not shorter than a century.” seems grossly overstated.

  2. tallbloke says:

    Well yes Geoff. The dynamologers are floundering it seems, and disagree with each other as much as we do. 🙂
    We have a better idea from looking at planetary motion I think. My estimate at the moment is two low cycles similar to Dalton and then a recovery.

    Time will tell. Quite a long time in this case.

  3. Ulric Lyons says:

    Carefull study of temperature records show that a) hot years are common through Maunder and Dalton, and b) the majority of the coldest winters through these periods, where followed by very warm springs. This is due short term changes in the solar signal, driven largely by the positions of Earth and Venus, in relation to the gas giants.
    The real nature of a solar minimum, is a cluster of astrnomically forced -ve events in solar output, which show most strongly, when they occur in N.Hemisphere winter time. Dominant periods of astronomical analogues are at 179yrs, 953yrs, 1157yrs and 4627yrs (a Heinrich event), 179 and 953, very accurately plotting the return of individual cold winters, and 1157 and 4627 integrating Neptune fully, and plots the main observed climatic event clusters over the Holocene.
    My personal method for forecasting, entails inspection of heliocentric configurations at a weekly level, and determining timing, duration, sign and intensity of the solar signal to project temperature departures from normals. The positional rules being established from correlation to long temperature measurement records, and older written records.
    This approach cannot be bettered, as it employs the demonstatable cause of the observed short term temperature changes, and negates the need to attempt to hope to predict coming trends, on the basis of a not too clear picture of the real nature of past temp` change, and without any idea what is driving it.
    The detail is all important, January in Europe could be +7deg or -3deg, during any climatic episode.
    Flood/drought cycles can only be predicted by understanding the short term changes in relation to the seasons.
    Just saying it is going to be colder for the next 100yrs is neither true, or of any pratical use to anyone.

  4. tallbloke says:

    Bar is open, drinks are on the house for courteous guests.

    Ulric, I think the various approaches which have been developed all have value, and taken together will be able to provide a better handle on predicting short and long term climate trends. Your method holds a lot of promise for predicting local precipitation too, which is a huge benefit. Geoff’s work on accurate sunspot counts and long term proxies along with his cycle prediction work is key too.

    If we all play nice, we could combine our knowledge to greater effect than if we go it alone having fallen out with each other. I’ll speak plainly like a forthright Yorkshireman;

    Stop needling each other or I’ll crack yer heads together! 🙂

  5. P.G. Sharrow says:

    HEAR_HEAR pg

  6. If we all play nice, we could combine our knowledge to greater effect than if we go it alone having fallen out with each other. I’ll speak plainly like a forthright Yorkshireman;

    Stop needling each other or I’ll crack yer heads together!
    That would be great, and the world would thank you. And you should invite, also, the EU guys:
    http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=ah63dzac

  7. Ulric Lyons says:

    tallbloke says:
    June 20, 2010 at 9:30 pm
    “Ulric, I think the various approaches which have been developed all have value, and taken together will be able to provide a better handle on predicting short and long term climate trends”

    So why was a lower C23 so warm? to evaluate temperatures even fairly accurately from the size of a solar cycle is near impossible even as a trend, yearly or monthly, forget it.
    From planetary configurations, we can predict temp`s or SSN, to derive temp`forecasts from projected SSN is the wrong aproach. I can easily give you a month by month deterministic forecast for temp`s for the next 30yrs, that will tell you all you need to know about trends.

  8. Ulric Lyons says:
    June 21, 2010 at 4:59 pm
    I can easily give you a month by month deterministic forecast for temp`s for the next 30yrs
    Astonishing correlations can be found but what about links of causation?
    Could it be something like this?:
    http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=9eq6g3aj
    and/or http://www.xearththeory.com/introdis_earth_electromagnetic_coil_transformers_step_up_down.html
    If something of the like, then the earth’s thermosphere with its 2500°K would be like the sun’s “thermosphere/corona”?

  9. Ulric Lyons says:

    So what impact typically does a solar cycle minimum that is longer, and with fewer sunspots, have on temperatures, compared to a minimum with higher SSN ?

  10. Ulric Lyons says:

    Adolfo Giurfa says:
    June 21, 2010 at 5:10 pm

    The astronomical correlations are rather stunning, as for mechanisms, the short term temp` changes follow the solar wind speed. How this physically translates into warming, I am not yet sure.

  11. tallbloke says:

    The solar cycle strength affects the cloud cover and the rate the oceans absorb heat at. Planetary configurations don’t tell us precisely when the ocean will give it up again in El Ninos. All these factors enter the mix along with the solar wind affecting air temperatures in the shorter term..

  12. Ulric Lyons says:

    tallbloke says:
    June 21, 2010 at 6:00 pm

    I did fine predicting the last El Nino, purely from evaluation of planetary configurations.
    I gave my forecast late 2007, and said it would acheive El Nino status by July 2009.

  13. Ulric Lyons says:

    Would anyone care to try to hindcast the very warm 1934 and 1938 from SSN:
    http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl17.html

  14. tallbloke says:

    I predicted the El Nino, and how long it would last from solar considerations. But it’s not too surprising that we both managed this, since the solar cycle is synchronised with the planetary motion.

    I’ve been banging on about el nino occurring just after minimum so 1934 no problem. I’ll admit my method would have had problems with the 1938 el nino though, so do tell us more. 🙂

  15. Ulric Lyons says:

    I was refering to temperatures in 1934 and 1938, not El Nino, and suggesting that forecasting such temp`s just from a solar cycle projection is not actually possible. The general idea is that higher SSN leads to higher temp`s, though this is often not true. The overalll ampltude of C17 and C23 are both prime examples of this.
    Minimums with higher SSN tend to be cooler, more cold winters are found at max than min. Inspection of detail of solar cycle max`s shows the warmer months often are when SSN is falling, and not at the peaks. Many assumptions about SSN and temperature are actually wrong. C5 for example is largely pretty warm, apart from the little peaks towards the minimums at 1799 and 1808/9;
    http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl5.html
    So I would be happy to challenge any temperature trend forecasts based on solar cycle projections, as firstly most people have not related them to temperature records in detaill and do not appreciate the real relationship between temp`s and SSN, and even if they did, this is a lousy way to forecast temperature, its far too easy to be way off target.

    So why then Rog did you think there would be an El Nino coming out of this last minimum? its not as if they happen after every minimum. 1938 was a La Nina year.

  16. tallbloke says:

    Hi Ulric, 1938 was not long after solar max not min, so I’m not sure what your driving at here. I haven’t tried to make any claims about being able to make short range forecasts based on SSN, so I cant answer you, because I’m not sure who you ar referring to.

    In the mid-term, air temps rise after sea surface temps rise, and sea surface temps rise following periods when the ocean has been absorbing energy faster than it loses it, which is when the average SSN for the period is over 40 or so.

  17. Ulric Lyons says:

    You said;
    “I predicted the El Nino, and how long it would last from solar considerations. But it’s not too surprising that we both managed this, since the solar cycle is synchronised with the planetary motion.”

    but before that you said;
    ” Planetary configurations don’t tell us precisely when the ocean will give it up again in El Ninos.”

    then I asked
    “So why then Rog did you think there would be an El Nino coming out of this last minimum? its not as if they happen after every minimum.”

    Which would be interesting to hear why.

    The second point on SSN and temperature, I have only mentioned short term changes, I have made no mention of short RANGE forecasts.

    You said;

    “Ulric, I think the various approaches which have been developed all have value, and taken together will be able to provide a better handle on predicting short and long term climate trends”

    I do not agree. Most people will miss badly as they do not understand the relationship between temp`s and SSN anyway, which what I was attempting to show with the examples of C17 and C23, both very warm periods, but not particularly high SSN, and the rather warm period through the very low C5.
    Most people have no idea whatsoever that more cold winters occur at solar max than any other part of the cycle, and that more cold winters occur in minimums that have higher, rather than lower SSN. This is clearly because they do not study temeperature records very well at all, and are generally in the dark about the real nature of temperature change.
    And even if you corectly evaluate SSN/temp` relationships at all scales, it is still a really lousy and very unreliable way to predict climate at any scale.

  18. tallbloke says:

    Hi Ulric 🙂

    Ulric asked
    “So why then Rog did you think there would be an El Nino coming out of this last minimum? its not as if they happen after every minimum.”

    Which would be interesting to hear why.

    There have been El Ninos following solar minimum (within 10 months) over the last 5 cycles. I haven’t checked beyond that as records prior to 1960 ain’t too reliable. the Kaplan reconstruction of the nino 3.4 area is graphed in my post on the subject though, so take a look.

    The second point on SSN and temperature, I have only mentioned short term changes, I have made no mention of short RANGE forecasts.

    Sloppy use of language on my part then. Mea culpa.

    Most people will miss badly as they do not understand the relationship between temp`s and SSN anyway, which what I was attempting to show with the examples of C17 and C23, both very warm periods, but not particularly high SSN, and the rather warm period through the very low C5.
    Most people have no idea whatsoever that more cold winters occur at solar max than any other part of the cycle, and that more cold winters occur in minimums that have higher, rather than lower SSN. This is clearly because they do not study temeperature records very well at all, and are generally in the dark about the real nature of temperature change.

    All good points, and I hope you’ll expand on them and give us your insights.

    And even if you corectly evaluate SSN/temp` relationships at all scales, it is still a really lousy and very unreliable way to predict climate at any scale.

    Not sure I agree with that completely. While I agree SSN isn’t good for useful prediction, I think the temperature has tracked SSN quite closely at the decadal scale over the period of record and gives us a clue as to long term magnitudes. Always willing to learn though, whenever you’re ready.

  19. Ulric Lyons says:

    “There have been El Ninos following solar minimum (within 10 months) over the last 5 cycles”

    Not for SC19, and not for SC23 either;
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

    http://www.solen.info/solar/

  20. Ulric Lyons says:

    ” I think the temperature has tracked SSN quite closely at the decadal scale over the period of record and gives us a clue as to long term magnitudes”

    There is a vague connection between low cycles and low temperatures. I do not think that SSN tracks temperarure that well at the decadal scale. Compare SC17 and SC19 centers, a big difference in SSN but similar temp`s around the cycle maximum.
    What happened in SC8? http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl8.html
    SSN was not that low, but temperatures were.

  21. tallbloke says:

    Ulric said:
    Not for SC19, and not for SC23 either;

    Well 19 was the highest cycle ever. There is a spike just after minimum, maybe not a full blown el nino.
    And we’ve just had the el nno following cycle 23 minimum, which was a long drawn out affair, with the el nino coming a bit later to match.

    Ulric said:
    I do not think that SSN tracks temperarure that well at the decadal scale.

    Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t. But the surface record isn’t the whole story. What I’ve discovered is that there are times when solar energy disappears into the ocean, and others when it comes back out. When that is factored in, the match gets a lot better. Not useful for weather prediction so much, but important for overall energy budget.

  22. Ulric Lyons says:

    But SC19 starts in April 1954, the next El Nino starts in March 1957, thats too late.

    Ulric said:
    I do not think that SSN tracks temperarure that well at the decadal scale.

    Rog;
    “Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t. But the surface record isn’t the whole story. What I’ve discovered is that there are times when solar energy disappears into the ocean, and others when it comes back out. When that is factored in, the match gets a lot better. Not useful for weather prediction so much, but important for overall energy budget.”

    In hindcasting monthly temperature over 350yrs of CET, I can follow all anomalies very well from the current planetary scenario, I have not been in a position where there seems to be any extra heat in the signal, like what you might expect with a bloom of your oceanic heat being released to augment the heat.
    I think you better had take a good look at my work, it tracks surface temp`s fine without having to make any adjustments.

    How do you detect this heat disappearing into the oceans, and how do you know when it will be released? Can you give examples of when you think there such releases of heat, and its effect on land surface temp`s?

  23. Ulric Lyons says:

    From my Planetary Ordered Solar Theory, I can identify a number of colder episodes this Century. The first one is starting from 2014 to the early 2020`s.
    It is likely that this period will be remembered as a Dalton type episode, I do not see a winter as bad as 1814 occurring, but there will be several hard winters.
    Its all over by the mid 2020`s, and a warm period follows from then until 2038.
    Until 2013, is a respite from the cold, there is a very warm Autumn coming this year, 2013 should be a record breaking warm year.

  24. tallbloke says:

    Ulric said:
    How do you detect this heat disappearing into the oceans, and how do you know when it will be released? Can you give examples of when you think there such releases of heat, and its effect on land surface temp`s?

    Basically, there is a sunspot number value at which the oceans are in equilibrium, neither gaining nor losing heat energy. I calculated this from a careful study of TSI and long term averages of TSI and sunspot numbers compared to long term average temperature. It so happens it’s around the same number as the sunspot number averaged over the period of record from the 1750s to now.

    So when the sunspot number is above average, the ocean starts sequestering extra energy, and when it’s below, it releases it. But this isn’t the whole story either. There is ‘inertia’ in the system, such that it taes a while for the sequestering or release of heat to ‘build up momentum’. Also, heat release can occur when the number is above average but falling. This is why El nino tends to occur after the peak of the cycle as sunspot number falls and often after minimum or just into the new cycle if it’s a short minimum.

    The effect is on air temp more than surface temp, because the ocean energy release heats the air above it directly. Hence the big snowfalls in el nino years when the warm moist air moves over the cold land.

    Incidentally, we were talking at cross purposes about SC19, I meant at the end of that cycle, not the start. I meant, “el nino’s following the last 5 cycles”.

    Thanks for the predictions by the way, we’ll keep an eye on those. Sea surface temps are falling fast at the moment, and while we might get plenty of sun, I think cold winds in exposed areas will mitigate that.

  25. Ulric Lyons says:

    Ah so that explains why a third of El Nino`s are on or a year after solar cycle maximum.

  26. Ulric Lyons says:

    Rog, I am having a serious problem understanding what you are saying;

    “There have been El Ninos following solar minimum (within 10 months) over the last 5 cycles.”

    this clearly sounds like you are saying `after minimum`, yet you go on to say;

    “Incidentally, we were talking at cross purposes about SC19, I meant at the end of that cycle, not the start. I meant, “el nino’s following the last 5 cycles”.

  27. tallbloke says:

    Hi Ulric, sorry for the confusion.

    You said:
    But SC19 starts in April 1954, the next El Nino starts in March 1957, thats too late.

    So I reminded that I meant the minima at the ends of the cycles. So when I said “El ninos following minimum over the last 5 solar cycles I’m referring to min between sc19-sc20 onwards. So your comment about 1957 was off the mark.

  28. Ulric Lyons says:

    “Very few of them are on cycle maximum according to Kaplans reconstruction”

    1957 ? 1969? and the second peak of SC23 May 2002 ?
    http://www.solen.info/solar/solcycle.html

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

  29. Ulric Lyons says:

    “So I reminded that I meant the minima at the ends of the cycles. So when I said “El ninos following minimum over the last 5 solar cycles I’m referring to min between sc19-sc20 onwards. So your comment about 1957 was off the mark.@

    So what about SC18/SC19? SC18 end April 1954, the previous El Nino was 1951, thats far from minimum too, and with SSN over 40:
    http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl18.html

  30. tallbloke says:

    Hi Ulric, yes, every other cycle has a ‘double peak’. As you noted, there are often a couple of very cold (la nina?) winters at the top of the cycle, so it’s natural that there should be a bit of a bounceback afterwards. So you can see el niono’s on the second peak of double peak cycles or the downslope of ‘single hump’ cycles.

    The peak in Kaplan’s reconstruction of nino34 in 1954 doesn’t look too far from the minimum between sc18 and sc 19 to me. (see graph posted at 10.26 today.)

  31. Ulric Lyons says:

    “The peak in Kaplan’s reconstruction of nino34 in 1954 doesn’t look too far from the minimum between sc18 and sc 19 to me. (see graph posted at 10.26 today.)@

    Which is exactly why I don`t like tiny little garphs where you can`t see the data properly. The El Nino IS late 1951:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

    I can`t agree with you that every other cycle has a double peak, and cold winters around maximum are not `caused` by La Nina.

    Bounceback?

  32. tallbloke says:

    Hi Ulric, yes, the el nino is 1951 and it’s starting already well on the downslope of SC18.

    I’m not going to get embroiled in arguments about causation at this stage. 😉

    The double peak is quite eveident in the oulu neutrino count I believe.

  33. Ulric Lyons says:

    “yes, the el nino is 1951 and it’s starting already well on the downslope of SC18.”

    3yrs before maximum, and on an upturn in SSN with SSN >40

  34. tallbloke says:

    That’s a seperate event with a biggish drop between the two. Neither of the events was particularly high amplitude either. Fairly normal oceanic oscillations. As I said earlier, the data is not as reliable prior to 1960. This is why I was concentrating on the post 1960 series.

  35. Tenuc says:

    Thanks TallBloke for another interesting thread, and for some good responses – much food for thought.

    Ulric’s comments brought to mind the work of John Nelson, who worked for RCA on the effects of planetary alignments and interference to short wave radio reception. Some information about this on the following links:-

    http://www.solsticepoint.com/astrologersmemorial/nelson.html

    I wonder if all the bodied in the solar system are linked by electro-magnetic fields and this linkage is partly responsible for the changes observed in both solar and planetary weather/climate?

  36. tallbloke says:

    Both Ulric and I have come to the conclusion electro-magnetism plays a big role in the linkages we have found. There is much to discover for those interested enough to seek.

    Cheers

  37. Ulric Lyons says:

    @Tenuc says:
    June 24, 2010 at 4:36 pm

    Nelson missed a couple of important factors. A good number of solar storms occur up to 2 solar rotations after a strong alignment of inner planets, which is why predicting one month ahead from looking at current conditions, outperformed Nelsons` forecasts at times. The other factor is that most of the larger events occur when the general configuration is positive, and giving raised surface temperature anomalies on Earth.


    This map is missing Earth, its position in relation to Venus is very important in what is going on with the solar signal, and almost 1 solar rotation before, on the 31.08.1951, is the `seed` alignment, a very tight line of Mercry, Venus, Earth and Ceres.
    http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar

    “I wonder if all the bodied in the solar system are linked by electro-magnetic fields and this linkage is partly responsible for the changes observed in both solar and planetary weather/climate?”

    I would say completely responsible.

  38. Tenuc says:

    Thanks both for your views, TB and Urlic.

    I came across this article ‘The Solar Dynamo And The Sun’s Effect On Earth’s Climate’.

    http://www.scientificblogging.com/news_articlessolar_dynamo_and_suns_effect_earths_climate

    This article tries to intimate a link between the solar dynamo and Earth’s climate. However, despite reading many different explanations about how solar/planetary dynamos operate, I still remain to be convinced that there is any real understanding of how the mechanism really works.

    Bearing the above caveat in mind, I wonder if the configuration of the planetary magnetic field sometimes reinforces the solar ‘dynamo’ (high solar activity) and at others tends to suppress it (low solar activity). I think it also possible that the effects of the field configuration could change with the suns poloidal field reversal at the end of each Schwabe cycle.

    I welcome any views you may have on this shaky premise.

  39. tallbloke says:

    Hi Tenuc,
    the Sun is very very big compared to Earth. Anthony posted an article some time ago called something like: To the Sun, we are a fly on an elephants butt.

    However, the Earth’s angular momentum changes do synchronise with the solar cycle. See the paper by Semi Semerad on the ‘meet the new kepler’ thread. As yet, we don’t have good metrics on ‘reconnection’ events. I’d be interested in your expansion on your comment about the ‘configuration of the Geomagnetic field’.

    Cheers

  40. Ulric Lyons says:

    Yes soz Rog, the Nino’s just after solar cycle minima is a good observation, a typical low Ap point:

  41. tallbloke says:

    Hi Ulric, can’t work out why you chose this thread, but thanks anyway. 🙂

  42. tallbloke says:

    Well Ulric was attracted to it certainly. 😉

  43. Ulric Lyons says:

    I did a google for “4627yrs” to see what came up!