Something is brewing

Posted: July 10, 2010 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

I don’t usually make astrological predictions in public, but keep an eye on the last week of August and the end of the first week in September this year. Volcanic eruptions are more frequent when the sun is quiet. They are often coincident with times when Lunar apogee or perigree is near full or new Moon.

On August 25 at 5:52am an apogee at 406389 km will occur 12 hours after full moon. At the same time, Mercury and Venus are coming into conjunction between the Earth and the Sun. This is all caught in a line with Saturn on the far side of the Sun, and Jupiter and Uranus outside us. A fortnight later, on Sept  8  4:02am there is perigee at 357191km coinciding within 6 hours of new Moon. The conjunction between Earth, Jupiter and Uranus will be on the 17th September. Venus will make closest approach to Earth on October 26th. It could be a creaky couple of months for Earth’s crust.

I may well be wrong, but bear in mind Katla is starting to rumble. This is the neighbour of the Volcano which caused the airlines to be grounded earlier this year. It’s eruption occurs every century, and is often presaged by the smaller neighbour.

Wikipedia says:

The eruption of this nearby long-dormant volcano in March and April 2010 prompted fears among some geophysicists that it might trigger an eruption at the larger and more dangerous Katla.[11][12][13] In the past 1,000 years, all three known eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull have triggered subsequent Katla eruptions.[14] Following the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, on 20 April 2010 Icelandic President Ólafur Grímsson said “the time for Katla to erupt is coming close … we [Iceland] have prepared … it is high time for European governments and airline authorities all over Europe and the world to start planning for the eventual Katla eruption”.[15]

Katla 1918 Erruption

Katla 1918 Eruption

Comments
  1. Gray says:

    Hi talbloke

    I don’t think we’ve heard the last from the Icelandic volcanos either. The link below is the earthquake page for the Katla area, the large caldera to the bottom right is Katla, and there are a significant number of small earthquakes occuring as I post this.

    http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

  2. Dear Tallbloke: This is for you and for all our friends:

  3. tallbloke says:

    Looks very interesting Adolfo, thanks.

    Gray, yes, I picked up on the current earthquake swarm on WUWT today. There is another close Lunar alignment the day after tomorrow on the 13th too.

  4. tallbloke says:

    Thanks Vuk. According to Fourmilab, the main conjunction between Earth Jupiter Uranus opposite Sun and Saturn won’t be until the 17th September. I’ll see if I can work out the discrepancy with my plot.

    Update: My software agrees, it was me having a fat fingers moment. It looks like 8th September might be the date to watch, when lunar perigree occurs within 6 hours of new moon.

  5. Tim Clark says:

    It’s erruption occurs every century

    = eruptions

    Sorry, couldn’t resist. ;~P

    [Reply] Thanks Tim, spelling fixed.

  6. Tenuc says:

    “I don’t usually make astrological predictions in public, but keep an eye on the last week of August and the end of the first week in September this year. Volcanic eruptions are more frequent when the sun is quiet. They are often coincident with times when Lunar apogee or perigree is near full or new Moon.”

    Thanks for the heads-up TB, will be interesting to see what happens.

    There are also links between eclipses and tectonic activity and the next solar eclipse is due today – 11 July… now where’s my steel helmet???

  7. tallbloke says:

    Hi Tenuc,

    NASA says:

    “Greatest eclipse occurs in the South Pacific at 19:33:31 UT. At this instant, the axis of the Moon’s shadow passes closest to Earth’s center. The maximum duration of totality is 5 minutes 20 seconds, the Sun’s altitude is 47°, and the path width is 259 km. Continuing across the vast Pacific, the umbral shadow’s path encounters Easter Island, one of the most remote locations on Earth. From the capital, Hanga Roa, totality lasts 4 minutes 41 seconds with the Sun 40° above the horizon (20:11 UT). The 3,800 inhabitants of the isle are accustomed to tourism, but the eclipse is expected to bring record numbers to this unique destination.”

    Wish I was there! Sunny but with capricious strong gusts here today in the north UK. I bet it get’s breezy on the ocean surround Easter islands when the Sun suddenly disappears too. Tin hats at the ready for falling stone giants!

  8. coaldust says:

    Since you’re (not your) fixing spelling, how about grammar? “It’s eruption…” should be “Its eruption…”.

    [reply] I’ve always used the apostrophe for the possessive pronoun, and for abbreviation. Perhaps if you make a useful contribution to the blog I’ll make the change, just for you.

  9. tallbloke says:

    Gail Combs has posted some good info on Russian volcanos.

    “” KLYUCHEVSKOY VOLCANO: 56°03′N, 160°39′E; Elevation 4,750 m
    AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE

    Explosive-effusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions >7.0 km (>23,000 ft)

    Seismicity of the volcano was above background levels all week. According to visual data, moderate gas-steam activity of the volcano were observing on Jule 2-4. Sometimes ash columns rose up to 5.3 km (17,400 ft) ASL. Clouds obscured the volcano in the other days.
    According to satellite data, a big thermal anomaly was registering over the volcano all week. July A gas-steam plume containing ash extended about 76 km to the south from the volcano on July 02.

    SHEVELUCH VOLCANO: 56°39′N, 161°21′E; Elevation 3,283 m, the dome elevation ~2,500 m
    AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE

    Explosive-extrusive eruption of the volcano continues. Ash explosions >10 km (>32,800 ft) ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft.

    Seismicity was above background levels all week. According to seismic data, possibly ash plumes rose up to 7 km (22,900 ft) ASL on Jule 2-6. According to visual data, ash fall was observed on removal 30 km at volcano on July 05. Ash plumes from hot avalanches rose up to 4 km (13,100 ft) ASL on Jule 5, and strong fumarolic activity were observed in the other. According to satellite data, a thermal anomaly was registering over the lava dome all week. Ash plume extended about 20 km (65,600 ft) to the south from the Volcano on July 07.

    KARYMSKY VOLCANO: 54°03′N, 159°27′E; Elevation 1,486 m
    AVIATION COLOR CODE IS ORANGE

    Explosive activity of the volcano continues. Ash explosions > 6.0 km (or 19,700 ft) ASL could occur at any time. Activity of the volcano could affect low-flying aircraft.

    Seismic activity of the volcano was above background levels all week. According to seismic data, possibly ash plumes rose up to 2 km (6,500 ft)ASL on Jule 05. According to satellite data, a thermal anomaly was registering over the volcano five days. Clouds obscured the volcano in the other days of week. Ash plume extended about 20 km (65,600 ft)to the south from the volcano on July 07.

    GORELY VOLCANO: 52°33′N, 158°02′E; Elevation 1,828 m
    AVIATION COLOR CODE IS YELLOW

    Activity of the volcano is increasing. Probably an eruption of Gorely is preparing. Aerosol plumes from the volcano could affect low-flying aircraft.

    Seismicity of the volcano was above background levels all week. Amplitude of volcanic tremor remains on levels 1.7-1.8 mkm/s and at increasing up to 2 mkm/s on Jule 6. Gas-steam activity of the volcano was observing on Jule 04. According to satellite data, the thermal anomaly over the volcano was registering on Jule 3. A gas-steam plume extended about 30 (98,400 ft) km to the south from the volcano on Jule 8. Clouds obscured the volcano in the other days.

    BEZYMIANNY VOLCANO: 55°58′N, 160°36′E; Elevation 2,882 m
    AVIATION COLOR CODE IS YELLOW

    Grows of the lava dome of the volcano continues and aerosol plumes could affect low-flying aircraft.

    Strong volcanic activity of Klyuchevskoy volcano obscured seismic data of Bezymianny all week. According to visual data, clouds obscured the volcano all week. According to satellite data, a small thermal anomaly was registering over the dome on Jule 6-8.

    EBEKO VOLCANO,: 50o41′N, 156o01′E Elevation 1,156 m
    AVIATION COLOR CODE IS YELLOW

    Activity of the volcano increases. Ebeko volcano is not monitored with seismic instruments. KVERT has satellite monitoring and occasional visual messages about this volcano. The danger of sudden ash explosions as high as 3 km (9,840 ft.) ASL as well as ash falls at Severo-Kurilsk, exists.

    According to the data by local observers at Severo-Kurilsk, activity on the volcano increases. Ash explosions at the volcano began to occur from 03:53 UTC on July 02. A height of ash column was about 1.8 km ASL. Ash plume extends to the south-south-east – to Severo-Kurilsk. KVERT continues to monitor the volcano.”

    http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/current/grl/index.html

  10. Back check this date (Feb.18, 1600), during the Maunder Minimum, when the Huaynaputina Volcano (VEI=6) erupted:
    http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1504-03=&volpage=erupt

  11. tallbloke says:

    On Feb 5th 1600 there was a big conjunction. Mercury, Earth, Mars and Jupiter all in line with the sun. On the 16th Lunar perigee at 361757 km New moon +1d19h

    The eruption start date: 1600 Feb 17 ± 1 day

  12. So “brewing time”, after conjuntion/opposition with the help of moon´s lever, it is abou two weeks (two moons).Good!

  13. tallbloke says:

    Two weeks is half a moonth.

    I have started looking at Volcanos of Ve5 and above. No very strong patterns yet, but Mercury conjunction and New Moon perigee seem to frequent features close by.

  14. […] Something is brewing « tallbloke’s talkshop. […]

  15. Ulric Lyons says:

    Yes, in the last week in August, and the end of September, are both on temperature uplifts, and this is after a temperature drop through the middle of August. Just the type of temperature differential that will increase volcanic activity.
    So that is when, but where? Well curiously, the best look-backs one could use in long range weather forecasts also seem to work well with locations of volcanic eruptions.
    From the records of VEI4+ events, Indonesia would appear to be the likely region to be concerned about this Autumn.

  16. Something is brewing | The Digital Glebe says:
    July 14, 2010 at 7:14 pm
    […] Something is brewing « tallbloke’s talkshop

    Really, others are turning into too boresome. The action is here, where the new empirical paradigms are found!.
    Some oppose current beliefs as the choir in a greek tragedy, just to reinforce them.

  17. Gray says:

    18 small earthquakes under the icesheet in the past 30 hours…

  18. tallbloke says:

    And still brewing:
    303 earthquakes in the last 7 days:
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

  19. Ulric Lyons says:

    This is the first notable proton event I have seen forsome time, also look at the sharp rise in the solar wind velocity late 3rd August;
    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

  20. tallbloke says:

    Yes. Wouldn’t it be great to know where all those open flux lines go from the near equatorial regions!

  21. Tenuc says:

    “Yes. Wouldn’t it be great to know where all those open flux lines go from the near equatorial regions!”

    Good question TB. Could it increase the strength of the toroidal field and increase the EM field produce by the planetary dynamo(s)? If so, it may change the direction/strength of ocean currents.

  22. tallbloke says:

    According to Leif, planetary magnetism is too weak to affect ocean currents. Vukcevic disagrees. I don’t know. It sure would be interesting to see the geophysicists putting time into finding out.

    One thing is for sure. There is no such thing as ‘open field lines’. I just want to know how far out into the planetary orbits the field is effective. The fact we can reconstruct sunspot numbers from the aa index shows the solar magnetic flux is geo-effective. As always, the question is about magnitudes.

  23. …..and the same source says that magnetism it is not caused by an electric field…That´s a version of the “Flintstones Universe”.
    Quote from Kristian Birkeland’s monograph Norwegian Aurora Polaris Expedition 1902-1903:
    (Chapter VI. On Possible Electric Phenomena in Solar Systems and Nebulae)
    Kristian Birkeland wrote:We will now pass on to experiments that in my opinion have brought about the most important discoveries in the long chain of experimental analogies to terrestrial and cosmic phenomena that I have produced. In the experiments represented in figs. 248 a-e, there are some small white patches on the globe, which are due to a kind of discharge that, under ordinary circumstances, is disruptive, and which radiates from points on the cathode. If the globe has a smooth surface and is not magnetised, the disruptive discharges come rapidly one after another, and are distributed more or less uniformly all over the globe (see a). On the other hand, if the globe is magnetised, even very slightly, the patches from which the disruptive discharges issue, arrange themselves then in two zones parallel with the magnetic equator of the globe; and the more powerfully the globe is magnetised, the nearer do they come to the equator (see b, c, d). With a constant magnetisation, the zones of patches will be found near the equator if the discharge-tension is low, but far from the equator if the tension is high.

    And: First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found
    09.12.06 http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2006/space_weather_link.html
    Weather on Earth has a surprising connection to space weather occurring high in the electrically-charged upper atmosphere, known as the ionosphere, according to new results from NASA satellites.

    What this means is, the earth acting as a CATHODE it is subjected to a variable current from the Sun, which when strong makes the jet stream get closer to the poles, while when low jet streams will migrate equator ward.

  24. tallbloke says:

    That’s an interesting hypotheseis Adolpho. If correct, it would radically alter Stephen Wildes Hypothesis on how the oceans play a role in controlling climate. I think you may be mixing metaphors a bit though. The comments from Christan Birkeland may apply better to the Sun.

    From Wikipedia:
    “A widespread misconception is that cathode polarity is always negative. This is often incorrectly inferred from the correct fact that in all electrochemical devices positively charged cations move towards the cathode (hence their name) and/or negatively charged anions move away from it. In fact cathode polarity depends on the device type, and can even vary according to the operating mode, as per the above electric current direction-based universal definition. Consequently, as can be seen from the following examples, in a device which consumes power the cathode is negative, and in a device which provides power the cathode is positive:”

  25. It won´t alter S.Wilde´s hypothesis as Birkeland´s it is at a deeper level of causation. Meteorologist do not dare to go deeper. All what they say is true, but if we apply Socrates mayeutics we should ask for the next level of causation.
    What Wikipedia says is OK. as ion movement is both ways, but when, for example, we seek to obtain a copper sheet we do it at the cahode where cations, as copper, go.
    However, as NASA has observed and we have commented, there are two currents, one from the anode to the cathode and one from the cathode to the anode: The two “ladders to heaven”.

  26. …and, last but not least, Birkeland´s words are referring to his Terrela EXPERIMENT, a lab test.

  27. tallbloke says:

    Adolfo, interesting, and I wasn’t trying to negate you. I agree that underlying Stephen’s a priori model is another causation level, undoubtedly celestial in origin, in my view.

  28. tallbloke says:

    Lots of rumblings from worldwide volcanos this week:
    http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions/

  29. Ulric Lyons says:

    If Lunar tidal forces are a factor. there should be a peak at around 2 days after full and new Moon at the highest tides. Though less than half of all large eruptions in the last few hundred years have a significant lunar position.
    I disagree with your claim that “Volcanic eruptions are more frequent when the sun is quiet” as they clearly peak at temperature uplifts, such as caused by the rise in solar wind speed which peaked on the 27th August;
    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events_20100831_1751/index.html

  30. […] Comments tallbloke on Something is brewingtallbloke on Roy Spencer – radiative …Adolfo Giurfa on Solar wind – Global […]

  31. A big earthquake in the same area of the Ferbuary 27th. big 8.9 richter earthquake.
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010azar.php
    Also the Planchon (big plate in spanish) Volcano is erupting, about 200 km. north of the above earthquake.

  32. Tenuc says:

    There have been many earthquakes around the Pacific over the past 7 days:-

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

  33. M.Vukcevic, Richard Holle , Tallbloke, et al. were right:
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010bubv.php
    Buy more popcorn!

  34. Gray says:

    Things are stirring at Grimsvotn in a week that saw Merapi, Anak Krakatoa and Shiveluch erupt. Coincides well with the Venus conjunction.

    Monday 1st November 2010
    Grimsvotn Volcano, Iceland

    A possible eruption has begun at Grimsvotn volcano, Iceland. A flood has started in Gigja in south-east Iceland. The disturbance occurred under the Vatnajokull glacier near Grimsvotn Volcano on Sunday afternoon. There was an increase in flow of water by 30 cm but other rivers running from the glacier are dry. The flood may take 4-5 days to reach maximum. On Sunday the volume of water in Gigja was 130 cubic metres per second, and electrolyte levels double that of normal. Grimsvotn is the most active volcano in Iceland.

    http://www.volcanolive.com/news.html

  35. During the last Maunedr Minimum there was an intense volcanic activity which reached up to more than VEI=6. Fields are interrelated, thus we can no longer keep on subjective descriptions. Fortunately now, all data gathered by satellites are being “surprising” every time, as they do not validate “intelligent” concoctions but traditional knowledge.
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/40514613/Unified-Field-Explained-8

  36. Tenuc says:

    Interesting – also recent Russian and Indonesian volcanic activity!

  37. All Green Governments of the Earth and specially the UN should immediately order to all the Volcanoes involved in this nasty business of erupting and contaminating the atmosphere of Holy Gaia, to immediately STOP doing so

  38. Gray says:

    Further eruption at Merapi this morning.

    Grimsvotn appears to be also be in eruption from these tremor measurements:

  39. Tenuc says:

    Another explosive eruption again this morning, with ash.gas cloud up at 6000m and more people being evacuated.

    Ulric Lyons says:
    November 3, 2010 at 12:47 am
    “Indonesia it is.
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/07/10/something-is-brewing/#comment-109

    Good prediction, Ulric!

    William posted the following on WUWT and I’d be interested in to know what people think…

    “As I have stated the paleo data shows there have been geomagnetic excursions at the same time as the termination of past interglacial periods. There is also an increase in volcanic activity at the time of the geomagnetic excursions. It appears the same forcing function causes the glacial period to end, the cyclic abrupt Bond events, and the end of the interglacial period. As Bond noted in his paper there are cosmogenic isotope changes at all of the Bond events including the Younger Dryas abrupt climate change that occurred 12,800 years ago. Bond tracked 22 of the cycles and found that they have a periodicity of 1470 years.

    The geomagnetic field strengthens by a factor of 3 to 5 during the interglacial period. In the last 10 years, geomagnetic specialists have found “geomagnetic jerks” (abrupt changes in the inclination of the geomagnetic field and geomagnetic excursion appear to be occuring cyclically. What appears to drive the changes, is an interruption to the solar sunspot mechanism. (One theory for sunspot creation has the ropes that form sunspots created at the solar tachocline, which is the interface of radiative zone and the convection zone. The large planets move the sun and certain specific motions of the sun by the planets disturbs the tachocline such that sunspots are not produced. That explains the cyclic nature of the affects on the earth.)

    When the sunspot cycle restarts there are very large CMEs that affects the geomagnetic field. The affects depend on the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit and the hemisphere where the strike occurs. The affects are also depend on the earth’s tilt. The South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly appears to be evidence of the most recent strike.”

    Seems an interesting correlation between lack of sun spots and Earth magnetic field.

  40. We are entangled in a soup of words and almost interred under infinite names of constants and “laws” named after some Holy scientific “Saint”.
    The Electric Universe has simplified things to electricity and I have had the opportunity of reviving traditional symbols, as the ICHTUS (Sin + Cos) = The mixing of the two forces, the alternate currents which when mixed at an angle of 45 and 135 degrees give birth to electricity and magnetism, and when approaching 0° between them they give birth to Gravity, by producing “mass” and “force”.
    As the great Nikola Tesla said: “If one knows the secrets of the 6 and 9. sin and cos)…..”
    This is what happens with the currents from the Sun while acting on the Earth, while being modulated by the other fields as the Moon.

  41. Ulric Lyons says:

    Tenuc says:
    November 4, 2010 at 10:17 pm

    I am repeatedly finding the key issue is local temperature rises;

    the rest of Indonesia has not been following the last week`s temp` profile.

    Ok it would be originally driven by an uplift in the solar wind velocity, which also causes the geomagnetic activity, but it does not have to follow that the geomag` is the forcing agent of the eruption itself.

  42. @ Ulric Lyons says:
    November 5, 2010 at 3:25 pm
    If you could get the local variation of the magnetic/gravity fields it would be really important, as all fields change one relative to the others. I am sure of it. Now we have the possibility, using an Ipod App to have the variations of local gravity acceleration.

  43. Ulric Lyons says:
    November 5, 2010 at 3:25 pm
    My sincere congratulations for you forecast!!!, It speaks volumes. We are living in interesting times indeed, a new era of knowledge is beginning!!. Look at this: (LOL!!: So they are paid to be “baffled”):
    The intensifying eruptions have baffled scientists who have monitored the mountain for years and left them uncertain what to expect
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101105/ap_on_re_as/as_indonesia_disasters
    Keep on doing it that way, buddies, the more you try the more baffled you’ll be. 🙂

  44. Ulric Lyons says:

    Adolfo Giurfa
    November 5, 2010 at 8:06 pm

    Thanks. This time round it won`t get burned, buried or banned !

  45. Gray says:

    Further significant eruption at Merapi over the last hour:

    http://merapi.bgl.esdm.go.id/view-r.php?id=18&236

  46. tallbloke says:

    That page is taking its time to load. Probably got a lot of traffic at the moment.

    Pyroclastic clouds are awesome. Check this vid

  47. Tenuc says:

    Thanks for the video Roger – amazing!

    Here is a link to a Merapi web-cam so you can watch as it happens.

    http://merapi.bgl.esdm.go.id/view-r.php?id=68&708

  48. tallbloke says:

    Thanks Tenuc. Looks dark there t the moment. Are the speckles in the image white noise, ash or rain I wonder?

  49. E O'Connor says:

    Earthquakes happening in the Gulf of Aden, Pyrenees and now the Turkey-Syria Border region.
    http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/index.php

    Sunspot 1123 aimed some star stuff towards earth on 12 Nov.

  50. E O’Connor says:
    November 14, 2010 at 11:53 pm
    Time to start checking changes in ALL the fields. (MAGNETIC,ELECTRIC, ELECTROMAGNETIC AND GRAVITY). Everything changes in known relations.
    Allow me to ask you reading:
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/42482741/Unified-Field-Explained-9
    (Every tradition and every symbol referred to this unity and to this principle)

  51. E O'Connor says:

    Adolfo

    I’ve gone to that link several times but not read it because of time constraints. I did read your post and the comments on it. I’ve just opened the second page on the link and I shall make some time and delve deeper. I very much lean towards the concept of inter-connectedness.

    My peferred mode of thinking and processing are analogue based rather than digital if that makes sense. Although being more comfortable with the humanities and arts and thus ruing the lack of science and maths in my education, I’ve always taken a keen interest in Science and search for knowledge and ideas. I despair closed minds!

    I’ve been delighted with your references to ‘The Glass Bead Game’ which I read many, many years ago. Earlier, I’d read Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy, as it was then, and was reminded of that when I read the Hesse. I seem to recall that Koestler and Colin Wilson also wrote about connections but called them intersecting lines or something like that. I’ve lost so many books by people not returning them and on reading your comments last week I ordered the Hesse book online. I also ordered ‘The Number Devil’ by Hans Enzensberger to give me a head start on my two year old granddaughter.

    I shall do as you ask.

  52. E O’Connor says:
    November 15, 2010 at 1:38 am
    There is a book which describes all symbols: “Symbols of Sacred Science ”
    http://www.amazon.com/Symbols-Sacred-Science-Guenon-Works/dp/0900588772/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1289824483&sr=1-1
    You should know, also, that there is nothing obscure, esoteric or difficult to understand: Thus the opposite forces and its development were described by Pythagoras in his famous theorem of the square triangle, where the hypothenuse can be translated as “wave length” and each cathetes as one of the forces or charges, which we use everyday, in our time´s wave theory language, and if we imagine this triangle moving while growing, the hypothenuse grows developing an spiral following nature´s Fibonacci series, and increasing in “pitch” as the keys on a piano and as Galaxies and babies are formed.