Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets Defined
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The database established by Martin (1) is analysed. The database has monthly values for the
alignment index representing the tidal influence of the planets Venus, Earth and Jupiter on the sun.
The index values are plotted over long and short time scales. A pattern of five separate repeating
long waves is discovered, each wave having a period of 55.1533 years. The long wave (LW) peaks
and troughs are found to occur in a repeating series of intervals in the sequence: 10.3818-12.0039-
10.3818-12.0039-10.3818 years. The peaks of these waves are found to have a long term average
period of 11.0307 years. Each LW is found to be formed by the connection of 34 shorter periods
(SP), each 1.6222 years long. The interlacing of the five LWs results in five smaller intervals within
each SP, each with a period of 0.3244 years. It is found that the timing of the features observed
within sunspot cycles correspond very closely with the SPs and 0.3244 year intervals within each
SP. This includes the times of minima and maxima, and significant features of the shape of each
cycle. The significance of these several findings is discussed, and it is concluded that they show
convincingly that the combined tidal influence of the planets Venus, Earth and Jupiter is a primary
factor in the formation of many observed solar events.
click image for larger version
Update:Graph for 1650-1675 added for comparison.
Observations from long term plots.
The alignment index calculated by Martin (1) was plotted for two periods: from 1750 to 1900,
Figure 1., and 1900 to 2050, Figure 2. The cutoff level of 1.88 used by Martin is shown. These plots
are included mainly to show that, on this time scale, the crests of waves appear at intervals of
approximately eleven years, coinciding with the peaks of the planetary tidal influence curves
calculated by both Hung and Martin. In these plots the form of many waves is not at all clear. Some
are just visible down to an index level of about 2.2, but the lower part of the plot appears to be quite
The analysis done by Hung and Martin has extracted information from only the upper part of this
alignment index data, but, as pointed out by Martin, that does not show a very convincing case for a
cause and effect relationship with solar activity because the phase difference is sometimes lagging.
The alignment index data must therefore be analysed in some other way before it can be fully
accepted that tidal influences of the planets cause variations in solar activity.
Construction of shorter term plots.
Plots were made of the data with the time scale reduced to twenty five years each, covering the
periods from 1800 to 1825, and 1900 to 2050. Averaged monthly sunspot data is also plotted. The
plots are reproduced in Appendix A. The peaks of the waves seen in the long term plots are clearly
visible, and between each of those peaks a series of high points at regular intervals with a period of
~1.62 years. These are referred to as short period markers (SPM). The elegantly simple procedure
of joining-the-dots was used to first draw the shape of each LW peak, and then track the occurrence
of successive SPM down to between the 2.0 and 1.5 index levels. It was found that below an index
level of 1.5 the SPMs relate to low rather than high points within the pattern of SPs.
Completion of the emerging pattern in this manner revealed a sequence of five interlacing long
waves (LW). It is noted that there are intermediate low points in the lower part of the plots, mostly
below the 2.0 index level, that also occur at the SP interval. These have not been systematically
examined, but after an initial assessment it was concluded that they were unlikely to have much
bearing on the analysis and conclusions that follow. Because the SPM points, and thus the LWs
derived from them, arise from the precisely predictable regular orbits of the planets Venus, Earth
and Jupiter, it must be assumed that they have existed back into the distant past, and will continue
into the indefinite future. The LWs are numbered from one to five, with number one starting in
January 1900, at the midway low point (MLP) between the peaks on either side. A shallow ripple is
evident in the shape of the LWs during some periods. This is an artifact of the monthly intervals
between dates in the data set. True high and low points sometimes fall in between the plotted points,
and the method of smoothing used can result in turning points on the plots being a little too high or
too low, particularly at the low points.
Because there are five waves, it is seen that between each SPM point, intermediate waves (IW)
occur at intervals of 1.62÷5 = 0.325 years. This period helps to define the phase intervals between
the waves. The 1.62 year value for the SP referred to so far is a first approximation. Progressive
refinement of the analysis from those starting points enabled the following precise set of values and
relationships to be established…
The period of all LWs is 55.1533 ± 0.005 years. This basic number was arrived at by
measurement of cycles 1 and 5 over three full cycles from peak-to-peak. Accurate peak times were
obtained by interpolation on an enlarged graphical plot. Wave peaks are shown on the charts with
the wave number beside a triangle.
On the assumption that the peaks of the long waves are related to the sunspot cycle, the long
term average length of the cycle is 55.1533÷5=11.03067 ± 0.00133 years.
There are thirty four SPs in each LW. The true SP length is thus: 55.1533÷34 = 1.6222 years. The
period of the IWs is then: 1.6222÷5 = 0.3244 years. The mid points on the LWs are identified with
the wave number beside a downward facing triangle, aligned with a solid green line extending down
to the sunspot curve. It is observed that the MLP of any LW may not be the lowest point. The lowest
point can occur at the mid point, or at 1.6222 years before or after the mid point, and also there can
sometimes be almost equal low points at 1.6222 years on both sides of the mid point.
It is observed that the intervals between successive LW MLPs and peaks (LWP) fall as follows:
1 to 2 (1.6222 x 7) – (0.3244 x 3) = 10.3818 years.
2 to 3 (1.6222 x 7) + (0.3244 x 2) = 12.0039 years
3 to 4 (1.6222 x 7) – (0.3244 x 3) = 10.3818 years
4 to 5 (1.6222 x 7) + (0.3244 x 2) = 12.0039 years
5 to 1 (1.6222 x 7) – (0.3244 x 3) = 10.3818 years
Download and read the rest of Roy’s hypothesis here:
I recommend everyone takes the trouble to familiarise themselves with the abbreviations Roy employs for brevity. This is a technical paper which rewards careful reading. Notice well the 10.38 and 12 year intervals which are in agreement with Timo Niroma’s analysis of cycle length clusters.
I will be away working over the weekend. Roy has commitments which mean he won’t be around all the time to answer questions. There is also a time difference between most of our contributors and Roy’s location in Australia, so please have patience and return later if your coment isn’t replied to immediately. Thanks.
List of acronyms describing characteristic sequences of tidal gravity influence.
LW Long wave. Period of 55.1533 years.
SP Short period. Period of 1.6222 years. (55.1533 ÷ 34)
SPM Short period marker point. Indicating either the high or low point of the SPs constituting
a long wave.
IW Intermediate wave. Period of 0.3244 years. (1.6222÷ 5)
LWP Date at which a long wave peaks.
MLP Date of the midway low point between the peaks of a long wave.
DTP A single high wave approximately double that of an IW. Period of approximately 0.628
years. The shape and period of these vary a little because they are formed as the sum of
shorter waves. This implies a period of higher tidal influence, but the effect appears to be
significantly modified depending on the magnitude of adjacent waves on one or both
ADTP Adjacent DTP waves, i.e., two in immediate succesion. Period of approximately 1.256
years. The same comments re: period & shape apply. This implies a period of
significantly higher tidal influence causing increased solar activity.
IWHR A sequence of three intermediate wave high points successively increasing in magnitude.
A variant of this has the middle high point slightly lower that the outer two, but this
appears to have a similar influence. Both imply high and increasing tidal influence.
IWHF A sequence of three intermediate wave high points successively falling in magnitude.
This implies a low and decreasing tidal influence.
IWC A single relatively high IW with very low magnitude waves on either side. This implies a
period of particularly low tidal influence, conceptionally the inverse of ADTP.
IWLA A sequence of three IW low points, occurring above the lowest LW line in the plot. A
sequence with the centre low on or slightly below the low LW line may sometimes be
classified as this type of pattern. This sequence usually reinforces an IWHR sequence,
the resultant high tidal influence causing increased solar activity.
IWLB A sequence of three IW low points, occurring below the lowest LW line in the plot. It
implies a period of lower tidal influence. If occurring concurrent with an IWLF pattern it
further reduces the tidal influence. If occurring concurrent with an IWHR pattern it tends
to reduce the tidal influence.