More support for Svensmark Effect

Posted: November 25, 2010 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, climate, solar system dynamics

WUWT has a story today about a new paper just published which confirms the link between Solar activity levels and cloud albedo variation:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/25/something-to-be-thankful-for-at-last-cosmic-rays-linked-to-rapid-mid-latitude-cloud-changes

The paper is here:
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/10941/2010/acp-10-10941-2010.pdf

This has made my day! 🙂

Abstract.
The effect of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) flux on Earth’s climate is highly uncertain. Using a novel sampling approach based around observing periods of significant cloud changes, a statistically robust relationship is identified between short-term GCR flux changes and the most rapid mid-latitude (60°–30° N/S) cloud decreases operating over daily timescales; this signal is verified in surface level air temperature (SLAT) reanalysis data. A General Circulation Model (GCM) experiment is used to test the causal relationship of the observed cloud changes to the detected SLAT anomalies. Results indicate that the anomalous cloud changes were responsible for producing the observed SLAT changes, implying that if there is a causal relationship between significant decreases in the rate of GCR flux (~0.79 GU, where GU denotes a change of 1% of the 11-year solar cycle amplitude in four days) and decreases in cloud cover (~1.9 CU, where CU denotes a change of 1% cloud cover in four days), an increase in SLAT (~0.05 KU, where KU denotes a temperature change of 1 K in four days) can be expected. The influence of GCRs is clearly distinguishable from changes in solar irradiance and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, the results of the GCM experiment are found to be somewhat limited by the ability of the model to successfully reproduce observed cloud cover. These results provide perhaps the most compelling evidence presented thus far of a GCR-climate relationship. From this analysis we conclude that a GCR-climate relationship is governed by both short-term GCR changes and internal atmospheric precursor conditions.

Comments
  1. We should always remember that GCR are, in a 90%, protons, then they are,positively charged Hydrogen nucleii which may and react with Ozone, reducing it, and producing water, H2O , as a result. (BTW, H2O in the atmosphere, as HOH, hydrogen hydroxide, is what we call CLOUDS.

  2. Tenuc says:

    Tallbloke says:
    “This has made my day! 🙂

    Me too! I’ve been rooting for Svensmark to be right about cosmic rays being one of the solar related changes which can effect our climate – especially with all the flak he’s had to take from the CAGW camp. Let’s hope the cloud chamber result is also positive!

  3. Tenuc says:
    November 25, 2010 at 2:50 pm

    We love to give names and writing Tags, no matter if self-adhesive or not 🙂
    However GCRs are CHARGE, which BTW, many times interfere with cellphones chips.

  4. Edward says:

    Svensmark was indeed onto something when he began investigating solar /climate links.

    The current deep solar minimum has revealed many interesting surprises however, notably the historic relationship between jet stream blocking events and low levels of solar activity as discussed by CAGW proponent and solar physicist Lockwood.

    As England and western Europe prepare for yet another deep freeze this winter the blocking patterns are getting harder to ignore. I have been watching with astonishment as Atlantic hurricanes and tropical depressions have travelled north to die instead east over the ocean. Hurricane Igor was the clearest case of a hurricane heading right up the Davis straight between Greenland and Baffin Island.

    Baffin Island holds today the last remaining remnants of the great North American continental ice sheets in the Barnes, Penny, Bylot and other smaller ice caps. It was ground zero for last ice age… and with the amount of action this area has been getting lately… well… just see for yourself from these satellite series.

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_sigwx_1070_m_………………jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

    Select the largest number of images ‘box’ and then hit ‘play’.

    Enjoy!

  5. E O'Connor says:

    Tallbloke

    Ignore the batting and bowling collapse in Brisbane and post your best ‘shot’. 🙂

  6. tallbloke says:

    Heh,

    I chickened out of giving them the full on planetary theory for now, and dipped my toe in with this.

    http://judithcurry.com/2010/11/26/skeptics-make-your-best-case/#comment-15815

  7. E O'Connor says:

    And a very nifty and elegant right foot toe dipping exercise it was. I”ll watch for the left foot.

    BTW, you might just retain the Ashes as a wetter than normal Dec to Feb is the latest forecast by our national weather bureau. It also has a paper on cloud data in review with a journal at present.

  8. @ tallbloke says:
    November 30, 2010 at 2:20 pm

    Nir Shaviv’s paper should be “translated” or “adapted” to the more reasonable theory of the Galaxy’s functioning, i.e to the Electric or Plasma model.

  9. tallbloke says:

    Tell Wal Thornhill to have it on our desk next week. 😉