The BBC’s regular climate dissident, my local weatherman Paul Hudson, has blogged about the recent and continuing extremely cold weather over Britain. As well as mentioning several broken records.
The latest American and midnight European operational models bring milder air in from the west during the second half of next weekend, bringing with it the risk of disruptive snow, followed by near normal temperatures next week.
The latest UK Met Office model is very similar. Other solutions I’ve seen in the last 24 hours, including the midnight run of the UK Met Office, keep a blocking high pressure across the country next weekend, which prevents milder air making any inroads.
Past history shows that models are often too fast in displacing entrenched cold air with milder Atlantic air, and so on balance the best estimate would be for a slow transition to milder conditions from the end of next weekend and into early next week, with a risk initially of further snowfall especially across eastern Britain.
This is the third winter running when we have had very cold and snowy conditions hitting the UK. It comes at a time of continued, unusually weak, solar activity.
In my blog ‘could the sun cast a shadow on global temperatures’ I wrote about how Australian scientist David Archibald was convinced that prolonged weak solar activity could mean much colder winters in future. He wrote his paper in February 2009.
Perhaps we all need to get used to colder winters across the UK in the next few years.
Nice one Paul. Getting the solar message across in style there!
Full story here.