Archive for January, 2011

Richard Holle: The big picture

Posted: January 31, 2011 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

All of the universe affects the rest of it, as all sits in a common bowl of gravitational and magnetically connected and driven mass of ions and regular atoms, that respond to the basic physics detailing the “normal rules or laws”. To think that there are voltages or ions that move without magnetic fields attached violates first principles.

The stars are surrounded with a ion shell the heliosphere, that protects them [like ferro fluid particles with oxalic acid coats to keep them from merging as they float around] from running into each other the outer surfaces are composed/covered with free electrons hanging on the outer edge of the magnetic fields.

The mutual static repulsion keeps the stars separated just as mutual static repulsion keeps the neutralized moisture in a cloud from condensing. As the background cumulative charge gradient increases it reduces droplet size and polarizes them. With the added side effect of lowering albedo by becoming more transparent to short wave sun light.

The galactic magnet fields are also influenced by these same basic rules of action as well, which leads me to the conclusion that the interactions of the composite system of magnetic interactions from the rotation of the Galaxy, and the declinational movement of the solar system in that larger frame of reference, as well as the density waves that propagate around driving the spiral arm flux variances give rise to the longer term cyclic climatology of the Earth. (more…)

Lisbon workshop output example: Climate Datasets

Posted: January 30, 2011 by tallbloke in climate

Contributor B.Kindseth says:
“In engineering, there are established properties for every material that you use and established specifications for manufacturing processes and analytic procedures. When a model is built, every input is based on solid scientific and empirical ground. But it does not end there. After a design is completed, hardware is built and tested. Data from the tests are used to match the model to the data. I do not see much similarity in the global warming science community.

The IPCC documents are not a statement of science, but propaganda documents by definition which only present one side of the science. We need to get back to the basics of science, possibly a web site which an encyclopedia of basic information. That should include defintion of acceptable statistical procedures.”

Absolutely! This is one of the issues we discussed at Lisbon, with particular reference to climate datasets. Our table had a discussion on this and produced a statement at the end of the hour. Here it is:


On Parade: Lisbon Conference – Updated

Posted: January 26, 2011 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Well, this is it, I just have a few minutes before heading to the Gulbenkian Foundation to register for the event and get to the first session.

I was up at dawn:


I see that it will be high tide on the Sun in early June this year:
Wild speculation – Will solar cycle 24 peak around this time?

The Wheel of Hamsters

Posted: January 25, 2011 by tallbloke in climate, Energy

While I was travelling to Lisbon, I made a plane change at Schiphol airport in the Netherlands. Stepping outside for some air (and a smoke) I was amused to see this; A giant hamster wheel being driven round by two runners, raising awareness for a cancer charity.


Testing Testing: WordPress for Nokia

Posted: January 22, 2011 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

I got a nice deal (free) on a neat little phone with a slide-out keyboard yesterday. It’s a Nokia C6 Not the latest or fastest smartphone, but good battery life and not too brick-like. WordPress do an app for symbian, so this is a test of it’s capability.

Verdict so far –

Usable, but this isn’t a very long post. OK as an emergency backup for blogging on the move. My daytime replies from Lisbon will be to be short and to the point, you’ll be glad to hear. 🙂

First results in from analysis of the Wolff and Patrone paper. P.G. Sharrow has made a seismic analysis showing the likely area of cell overturn releasing potential energy. Top work P.G.! I will be able to plug this value in to the model I’m building with Rob Prince.

Image created by P.G. Sharrow

Image created by P.G. Sharrow

PG explains:

The above is my reconstruction from the Wolff – Patrone paper: figure 6

The left gauge is seismic speed and the bottom is solar radius.


On the recent barycentric orbital periods thread, Roy Martin commented about the apparent rotational symmetry of the solar inertial motion (barycentric radius) about the date 1648.

Roy said:

“If we put a target point on the line at ~1648, the interesting thing is that the whole pattern is very close indeed to displaying rotational symmetry about that point, for the full 450 years before and after, i.e., rotate 180deg.. 1648 is in the middle of what looks like a short phase change period, similar to that at 1290,1468,1827 & 2006.5, temporally separated by the Jose period. None of those other points display the same degree of symmetry.”

I replied saying he may have found the midpoint date identified by Semi in his paper ‘Orbital resonance and Solar Cycles’.

Here are the two plots:

Roy Martin: Plot of Barycentric radius showing rotational symmetry

Roy Martin: Plot of Barycentric radius showing rotational symmetry


Observation time: Fun with a 10″ Dobsonian Stargazer

Posted: January 17, 2011 by tallbloke in Astronomy

Late last night the sky cleared, so my friends Rob and Johnny and I drove up out of the orange glow syndrome to the top of the Chevin, a hill near where we live. To assist our Stargazing we took Johnny’s new toy with us, a nice 10″ Dobsonian “Stargazer” telescope with 40x and 120x eyepieces.

Johnny and Rob hunting for the Andromeda Nebula

Johnny and Rob hunting for the Andromeda Nebula. The red spot to the right is an aircraft warning signal.

We set it up away from the carpark up on the ridge and got some great observations of, amongst others, the Orion Nebula, Jupiter and its four main moons, and of course, our own Moon. See the photo I managed to get below the break.

Lisbon Conference Update: The Agenda

Posted: January 16, 2011 by tallbloke in climate, Philosophy

As regulars know, I’ve been invited to attend a conference sponsored by the Joint Research Council of the European Union in Lisbon at month end. I’ve now received the agenda which details some of the aspects of the climate debate which will be under discussion. I can’t be completely specific at this point, because there is flexibility in the format of discussion and topic list and we have been invited to put forward ideas.

I’d like to help represent as many views as possible from the blogosheric climate community, so please put forward your views so I can raise issues at the conference.

In my response to the document which came with the invite, I inserted a bullet point list of desirable actions as I see it. I’d appreciate your comment and criticism of those, as well as additional ideas I’ve missed. Here are the Bullet points:


Gerry posted a comment with the barycentric orbital periods and said plotting a bar graph would reveal interesting patterns. So I did. I also marked on the solar grand minima Gerry added to the data.

Barycentric Orbital PeriodsThese time periods relate to the motion of the Sun around the centre of mass of the solar system. Here’s a plot of the motion so you can get an idea of what this is about.


Breaking News: Mt Etna Erupts

Posted: January 13, 2011 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Europe’s famous active volcano Mt Etna Erupts once more

Mt Etna Jan 12 2011 - Click for large image

Other major 20th-century eruptions occurred in 1949, 1971, 1981, 1983 and 1991–1993.

I just bought an electronic copy of Miles book from Amazon. 🙂

I did consider the hardback but as there is no index, and kindle e-books are searchable, I went the high tech route. My fiancee kindly downloaded it to the Kindle e-book reader I bought her for Christmas. Now I just have to prize it from her fingers long enough to read Mles’ highly entertaining and thought provoking material.

The first edition of the paperback is on back-order from Amazon UK here.
There are only two copies of the hardback left, an astute investment at £24.22 if you ask me.

Most of the material is out there for free at too, but I think Miles deserves a bit of our cash, for writing things like this:

So that we can keep all people’s ideas in play while there are a couple of  discussions continuing on papers concerning specific mechanisms by which planets have an effect on the Sun’s activity, here’s an open thread for the interchange and expression of ideas and concepts. As I find time today and this evening, I will try to summarise and explain each of the mechanisms considered plausible by the scientists and thinkers who have offered them for consideration.


A recent paper by Giorgieva et al looks at tidal forces on the Sun caused by the planets. Leif Svalgaard and many researchers looking into planetary – solar linkage mechanisms dismiss tidal forces as too small. However Giorgieva et al find them sufficient to cause the observed speed of meridional flow on the solar surface, and derive an impressively good correlation between tidal force and solar activity levels.

Fig.7 demonstrated a very good correspondence between the planetary tidal force (solid line) and the amplitude of the sunspot cycle (dash-ed line), with the Dalton minimum (the beginning of 19th century) and Gleissberg minimum (end of 19th and beginning of 20th century) coinciding with low tidal forces during the surface flux transport, and the secular solar maxima in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries – with maxima in the tidal forces during these periods.


Rudolf Wolf

Tucked in the footnotes to the Wolff and Patrone paper is a curious reference to an ‘Extract of a letter to Mr. Carrington.’ from none other than Rudolf Wolf (1816-1893), the famous solar observer and creator/curator of the best and most complete sunspot time series then in existence. The letter extract was printed in the monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Vol 19 p85.

Wikpedia doesn’t tell us much about Wolf, and it certainly doesn’t mention that he was a solar-planetary theorist!

Leif Svalgaard has never mentioned it either, until I asked.
[Update: to me anyway. Apparently he has told others before]

The Letter is reproduced below the break.


The days of Leif’ Svalgaards ‘The sun is in perfect freefall and thus feels no forces’ idealisation are numbered. In freefall it may be, but it is subject to significant differential forces, not only from tides, but from the varying angular momenta of cells within it which do not cancel out.

Solar Phys (2010) 266: 227–246
DOI 10.1007/s11207-010-9628-y

A New Way that Planets Can Affect the Sun
Charles L. Wolff · Paul N. Patrone
Received: 5 May 2010 / Accepted: 16 August 2010 / Published online: 18 September 2010
© US Government 2010


We derive a perturbation inside a rotating star that occurs when the star is accelerated by orbiting bodies. If a fluid element has rotational and orbital components of angular momentum with respect to the inertially fixed point of a planetary system that are of opposite sign, then the element may have potential energy that could be released by a suitable flow. We demonstrate the energy with a very simple model in which two fluid elements of equal mass exchange positions, calling to mind a turbulent field or natural convection. The exchange releases potential energy that, with a minor exception, is available only in the hemisphere facing the barycenter of the planetary system. We calculate its strength and spatial distribution for the strongest case (“vertical”) and for weaker horizontal cases whose motions are all perpendicular to gravity. The vertical cases can raise the kinetic energy of a few well positioned convecting elements in the Sun’s envelope by a factor ≤ 7. This is the first physical mechanism by which planets can have a nontrivial effect on internal solar motions. Occasional small mass exchanges near the solar center and in a recently proposed mixed shell centered at 0.16Rs would carry fresh fuel to deeper levels. This would cause stars like the Sun with appropriate planetary systems to burn somewhat more brightly and have shorter lifetimes than identical stars without planets. The helioseismic sound speed and the long record of sunspot activity offer several bits of evidence that the effect may havebeen active in the Sun’s core, its envelope, and in some vertically stable layers. Additional proof will require direct evidence from helioseismology or from transient waves on the solar surface.


Ozone Hole Hype

Posted: January 8, 2011 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

I’m protecting the anonymity of the person who said this until I hear from them that it’s ok to attribute it.

I was tasked with determining whether to shut down the UARS spacecraft program. One of the justifications for keeping it operational was that it was one of the prime data source for Ozone Hole monitoring. When presented with the record of ozone hole max/min extent, it was obvious that “the Hole” somehow was ignoring all the hype, the “science” and the politics. Since I knew the person who “discovered” the Hole, I asked him about it. The answer was that the Hole was real, but the “science” was pure hype. His theory was that it was a natural occurrence that varied on a periodic basis based on factors that were never later pursued. He was NOT the person who was credited with discovering the Hole – that person stole the credit by pubishing first.

Electric Universe open thread

Posted: January 8, 2011 by tallbloke in Astrophysics

So the suggestions thread doesn’t get cluttered, here’s an open thread for people to contribute whatever they want to on the subject of the Electric Universe hypothesis.

The Secrecy surrounding the MET’s severe weather warning to the cabinet office which never got to the public deepens. Now the cabinet office refuses to confirm or deny whether they conveyed the MET weather warning to the appropriate agencies such as highways, local government transport executives etc.

After my none to successful attempt to wring information from my local M.P. Benny Peiser of the Global Warming Policy Foundation has taken up the baton and asked a whole bunch of awkward questions of Louise Ellman MP, Chair of the Transport Select Committee.

Winter! Weather! Chaos!

Get ready for a load of flannel and misdirection from the mawkish minions…

Piers Corbyn of Weatheraction is jubilant, and has a video up on youtube outlining his successful winter forecast.