For anyone looking for the solar cycles analysis prediction thread, it is here:
The ever shrinking solar cycle 24 prediction from the MSFC Solar Physics Branch members Wilson, Hathaway, and Reichmann has, unsurprisingly, shrunk again. Here’s the March 2011 ‘prediction’
This is lower than Leif Svalgaard’s 2004 prediction of ~70SSN.
Do we feel let down gently? 🙂
The planetary theorists, including Geoff Sharp and myself have been predicting a low cycle of around 40-50SSN for a couple of years now. Looks like the ‘experts’ are coming roun to our point of view, finally.
I think this cycle might ‘peak’ later than this projected curve predicts though and might tail off slower too. I think we are in for a very long low cycle.
Still, however that all pans out, I like David Hathaways approach. In an interview last year, he was refreshingly frank about how little we still know about solar variation.
For what it’s still worth, (heh!) here’s a link to the MSFC prediction methodology:
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Re: connection between temperatures and solar cycle/sunspots.
Re-reading the literature in which selected site showed a 2K drop in temperature with a 13 year cycle, it struck me that land station data vs SST data vs global data revealed differences. I did a non-scientific, eyeball comparison between sea, land, urban-land and rural-land datasets for specific times around 1998 and thought that the land warmed up about 7X as much as the sea, if the global data was split 70:30 sea and land. The point being, that a 2K drop in Connecticut would be a 0.3K drop in the global record.
Has anyone split out the land/sea, northern-land, norther-sea temp changes that create, by being averaged together, the global record?
If Tallbloke and others get their sunspot right, then the temp needs to fall to show the solar connection and destroy the CAGW meme.
Checking the NASA/GISTemp site for Hansen’s predictions Scenario A, B & C: the wheels will fall off the cart by 2015 – either the temp goes down as herein suggested, or there will have to be one heck of a spike to get back on the IPCC trend.
Doug:
“Has anyone split out the land/sea, northern-land, norther-sea temp changes that create, by being averaged together, the global record?”
A little O/T, but Figure 1 and some of the other figures in https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/02/17/roger-andrews-the-solar-sst-relationship-part-ii/ should give you some insight.
I find it delightfully ironic that Dr. Hathaway has downgraded his Solar Cycle 24 forecast just as the Sun has burst into life. The guy appears to be jinxed, did he run over a black cat or something? (:-
In all seriousness, if I’m reading Leif Svalgaard’s Solar-Polar fields chart correctly…..
….it looks to my untrained eye as if the Solar Maxima occur when the fields intersect at zero, and that, judging by previous cycles, they are on course to do that either late this year or early next year.
Any thoughts from people with a great deal more expertise that myself (ie: pretty much everybody) would be greatly appreciated.
Doug: The big question is, how much will the excess solar energy absorbed by the ocean during the run of high solar cycles and lowered albedo cushion the drop in solar activity. Looking back at the solar activity drop in the late 1800’s and the reaction of the ocean to it, we should expect a few more big el ninos on the way down the slope. This will keep seas surface and air temps reasonably warm, but the real indication that the wheels have fallen off the AGW hypothesis will be the diminishing ocean heat content, as the heat burping out of the oceans is not getting replaced at the rate it was in the 90’s by the weaker sun.
I just hope the ARGO data and metadata is made public by the Republicans. I have a lot of respect for Josh Willis, but he is under an immense amount of pressure.
Anything is possible: in this solar cycle, with all the non linearity the Sun is displaying as it goes through it’s wobbly moment, anything is possible.
Worth noting though that Leif says that solar max may occur up to a year or so after the fields reverse.
In Dr S’ polar field prediction, is the solar polar field an input, or an output? What drives their strength and polarity according to him?
Zeke, Leif’s plot is not a prediction, a measurement of magnetic activity. But he uses the strength at the preceding solar max to guage the following solar max amplitude. In 2004 he predictied 70SSN for solar cycle 24.
The strength and polarity is according to him driven by the ‘solar dynamo’. It’s a consequence of the various versions of the Babcock-Leighton Dynamo Theory.
Extrapolation of my equation (for non-smoothed monthly, rather than the annual SSN) shows around 80
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7.htm
(which was same as Svalgaards before he reduced it to 72), but I am not doing any adjustments, since formula has occasionally overestimated and then underestimated, but on balance is doing a good job.
Zeke the Sneak ( I am puzzled by your nom de guerre)
by general consent polar field precedes and foretells intensity of next cycle (x factor 0.6-0.7). I think SC24 max, could be sooner than 2013-14 (Hathaway), possibly within a 12-18 months, since North hemisphere has already reversed polarity, but the South is still way off. http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm
Vuk’s formula and curve for solar polar fields. Sorry Vuk, meant to mention this in my reply to Zeke. I’m full of headcold and not thinking very clearly.
I’m wondering if the gap from zero field to solar max might be longer this time, due to the laziness of the cycle.
Thanks tallbloke, that helps a great deal. I think he views the latest predictions about SC24 (based on conveyor belt velocity, which he does not think is linked to the dynamo) with skepticism over on WUWT, and seems to favor looking at polar magnetic field strength, which you say is connected to the dynamo in his view.
I am staggered by the amount of mechanisms which supposedly contribute the energy and behavior of the sun. It is an overwhelming encyclopedia of separate gizmos to fit each observed phenomena. So you will pardon if I just wanted a Cliff notes answer on Dr. S on this particular.
Zeke: you’re welcome. Dr S, although he professes not to have a dog in the race on the question of whether the dynamo’s flowing components are surface and deep or surface and shallow, favours the shallow dynamo theory I think.
Hi tb
Transition usually takes up to a year, for the SC24 peak I expect to be flat, and extend at least over couple of years, after the transition. Then it is a matter of opinion how to interpret intensity and timing from non-smoothed or smoothed monthly or finally smoothed annual.
Vuk, dead right. I have been saying for some time that when I refer to the ‘peak’ of sc24 I use the term ‘peak’ loosely! 🙂
Being a keen mountaineer, I find the heights of sc24 less than dizzying.
vukcevic says: “I think SC24 max, could be sooner than 2013-14 (Hathaway), possibly within a 12-18 months, since North hemisphere has already reversed polarity, but the South is still way off. http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm”
I find it interesting that Dr S finds such fault with your interesting formula, which fits solar activity and makes a future trajectory.
And yet the dynamo is not well defined, and is sometimes mathematically modeled as well. There are no actuall measurements that can be made of that dynamo, just inferred effects, which may have other causes. So the computer models take all kinds of liberty with how to model the dynamo. I do not understand what the difference is between your using math and theirs, in his mind, for him to respond the way he does to your formula.
Oops, redundant redundancy alert. One “interesting” is enough. (-:
Zeke the Sneak says:
March 8, 2011 at 6:20 pm
[vukcevic said: “I think SC24 max, could be sooner than 2013-14 (Hathaway), possibly within a 12-18 months, since North hemisphere has already reversed polarity, but the South is still way off. http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm”%5D
I find it interesting that Dr S finds such fault with your interesting formula, which fits solar activity and makes a future trajectory.
And yet the dynamo is not well defined, and is sometimes mathematically modeled as well. There are no actuall measurements that can be made of that dynamo, just inferred effects, which may have other causes. So the computer models take all kinds of liberty with how to model the dynamo. I do not understand what the difference is between your using math and theirs, in his mind, for him to respond the way he does to your formula.
Spot on Zeke, they pretend that they have the answers, when their dynamo theory has little predictive power, and doesn’t even explain past activity very well. Vuk’s model result is at least published, available for all to see, and its success or failure can be judged by all over the coming years.
We are currently lucky enough to be alive at a time when the sun is showing us some different behaviour than what we have observed in recent times. It is interesting that the NH is already in the process of magnetic reversal. It is more active now than it has been at any time during the cycle so far, while the SH continues in the doldrums, with just a few specs. Picture here…
Perhaps this will end up like the posited historic ‘lost cycle’ with a very low polar field and low sunspot count over a long period, due to the L&P effect? We know grand minima have happened before and the historic record shows the severe impact they have on Earth’s climate.I think it anybodies guess what will happen if the suns polar field stays so weak. Who knows?
Zeke the Sneak
Polar field is of interest only if it can be used as a rough predictor for the next cycle, and many are now accepting it as a viable method. The idea was pioneered by Dr.S, but he has no method of modelling or predicting polar field, so he has to wait for PFmax to predict next cycle, giving him signal only about 4-5 year in advance.
a) If a solar ‘nobody’ comes up with a method of calculating polar field many years ahead, it makes his prediction of just 4-5 years less impressive.
b) It is based on Jupiter + Jupiter/Saturn conjunction orbital periods, so it is its simplicity, and most of all linkage to the accurate astronomical values (rather than a meaningless set of values) makes it an anathema to current crop of solar scientists.
Tb – Thanks for your insights, I should have known that nothing is ever as straight-forward, as it first appears.
Undeterred however, I note that Jupiter is very close to perihelion (it actually occurs on the 17th.) Anybody else thinking that the current outbreak of Solar activity is linked in any way?
I blogged on the forthcoming perihelion of Jupiter a while back
Right Vuk, any external influence on the Sun is peremptorily ruled out by current solar theory. On that I thank you for allowing people to see that deep, reflexive bias.
I just loved this quote (respectfully, not to make Dr S’ ears burn):
“As far as I know, you have no understanding or explanation of how your formula might work.”
That is the problem with tweeking the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model, in a nutshell. And it is very par for the course in adjusting all these unseen variables imagined to be at work beneath the photosphere!
Geez.
tallbloke says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:18 pm
I blogged on the forthcoming perihelion of Jupiter a while back
Rog
there is also a lunar perigee on 19th of March March, with full moon. Call to all luna-tics to be on their best behaviour.
Wooooooo! 🙂
@ Anything is possible says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:04 pm
“I note that Jupiter is very close to perihelion (it actually occurs on the 17th.) Anybody else thinking that the current outbreak of Solar activity is linked in any way?”
Not on it`s own, it takes two or more bodies to do something, if one is at perigee or two are on the same plane, it will make a difference. I can think of at least three reasons for the recent rise in activity, S*J on Feb 22nd, and always, how the inner planets are configured. For example, active periods 2010~ early April, early and mid August, late December, and 2011 mid February, all had stelliums/syzygies involving minor planet Ceres (there goes the tidal theory!).
On the recent position of Jupiter, looking at some 1500yrs of weather records, colder winters are common when Jupiter is towards the South Galactic pole, which it is now moving away from.
Tenuc says: We are currently lucky enough to be alive at a time when the sun is showing us some different behaviour than what we have observed in recent times. It is interesting that the NH is already in the process of magnetic reversal. It is more active now than it has been at any time during the cycle so far, while the SH continues in the doldrums, with just a few specs. Picture here…
You’re right, this minimum is a time to take plenty of notice of differences all over the solar system, too. We get so fixated on Earth’s climate but there may be other surprises for bold thinkers to work out in the atmospheres and magnetospheres of the other planets.
During this time of low solar activity, it is interesting to try to see Earth’s geological responses to events on the sun. If Earth’s ionosphere is acting as a plate in a capacitor, and the surface of the Earth is acting as another plate, then we can still see adjustments to changes in charge, even though it may be because of a reduced electric charge.
Earthquakes, a response to the space environment:
“The missing link between the sunspots and earthquakes is the fact that the electric discharges to the Sun that cause sunspots can also affect the Earth’s ionosphere. The ionosphere forms one “plate” of a capacitor, while the Earth forms the other. Changes of voltage on one plate will induce movement of charge on the other. But unlike a capacitor, the Earth also has charge distributed in rock beneath the surface. And if the subsurface rock has become semi-conducting because of stress, there is an opportunity for sudden electrical breakdown to occur through that rock.” ~Wal Thornhill
Lightning, a response to the space environment:
“The electric universe model argues that the solar system is not electrically “dead.” The Sun, like all stars, is a focus for a galactic discharge. Earth is a charged body that continually transfers charge from space to maintain equilibrium with the solar electrical environment. Thunderstorms are generated by a breakdown of the insulating layer of atmosphere between the Earth’s surface and the ionosphere.” ~holoscience.com
Has anyone noticed a new greetiing here:
Either I’m picking up some spoofed image or the great man has spoken (I don’t imagine he means we’re on the way). Also note the MF at the top. I think Tenuc may have the right idea here, remember what Dr S said back here:
Hi AJB and welcome.
Good spot with the graph! And thanks for the link to the comment, I missed that thread.
So, a nice spike in F10.7. How long will it last? I suspect not long at all, but it’ll be very interesting to watch over the next couple of months.
Re: LS “Welcome to solar max”
L.S. :
Well, it hardly looks like a Grand Minimum 🙂
There is a fair amount of activity, so the Sun is out of the minimum phase. If this much activity is still only in the ascending phase, then maximum will be rather higher [not what we would expect fro the polar fields during the past minimum]. The polar fields at the North pole have already reversed, and the South polar fields have decreased considerably. The reversal is ‘usually’ [but has only been observed for about eight cycles] timed near maximum. So, these things together seem to justify a ‘welcome’ [although the maximum might be a protracted affair like in cycle 14 with wild swings up and down]. Since after the reversal there ‘usually’ are several more ‘surges’ of new polarity flux arriving in the polar caps, there is the possibility that the polar fields might build to be stronger’ than at the recent minimum, leading to the prediction that solar cycle 25 might not be an extremely low cycle, but of moderate size [a tad larger than SC24], a la cycle 15 after 14. This is, of course, only [well-founded] speculation, but makes life interesting.
Well, the Sun is a big unpredictable beast. Sure is fun speculating though! 🙂
One thing is, we don’t know what a grand minimum looks like. Leif said the Dalton saw some years of big spot counts.
We should see a very big flare in that hemisphere as the south field shorts out due to turbulance between layers. pg
P.G. Do you mean in the N. Hemisphere as the polarity reverses? Jupiter is about as close as it get to the Sun right now. Glad we are not too close to the firing line!
AJB says:
March 9, 2011 at 7:22 am
“Has anyone noticed a new greetiing here:
leif sorce
Either I’m picking up some spoofed image or the great man has spoken (I don’t imagine he means we’re on the way). Also note the MF at the top. I think Tenuc may have the right idea here, remember what Dr S said back here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/01/some-speculation-that-solar-cycle-25-has-already-begun/#comment-167382“
Well spotted AJB, and thanks for the link. Here Leif’s projection for F10 flux from the WUWT thread…
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 3, 2009 at 5:12 am
Gerry (00:33:09) :
Is the correct interpretation of your statement above that your own prediction is that the cycle 24 F10.7 peak will be ~120 sfu? What is your best estimate of the date associated with this peak?
Yes, 120 sfu, peaking in 2014. Since small cycles have very broad ‘peaks’, the time of maximum is not well determined. I think that cycle 24 will look much like cycle 14: http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl14.html
As you can see it is hard to pinpoint when the peak was in SC14.
As F10 is now at 152, it shows how much trouble even the experts are having about knowing what our sun will do next. So just sit back and watch the show… 🙂
P.G. Sharrow says:
March 9, 2011 at 4:11 pm
We should see a very big flare in that hemisphere…
Dr.S has collection of info regarding the large past flares.
Click to access 1859%20Storm%20-%20Extreme%20Space%20Weather.pdf
The spots are allmost in equator now, so sycle peak is close, brobably late in this year. Hathaway’s prediction is not a prediction at all it’s like weather forecast update – No we don’t have sunshine tomorrow – instead we have heavy storm, or at least our models say so.
Anything is possible says:
March 8, 2011 at 3:30 am
In all seriousness, if I’m reading Leif Svalgaard’s Solar-Polar fields chart correctly…..
….it looks to my untrained eye as if the Solar Maxima occur when the fields intersect at zero, and that, judging by previous cycles, they are on course to do that either late this year or early next year.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I don’t claim to have more expertise in this matter than anyone else, but those previous solar max times appear to be 1968 (Nov), 1980, 1990, and 2000. These are all very close to the polar field zero-crossing times, usually lagging those times by much less than a year.
It does look like the next zero-crossing will occur before mid-2011, and solar max is therefore likely to be reached before the end of the year. I gave this only an “outside possibility” before the surprising recent bursts of high F10.7 and SSN activity, but I now give that possibility better than even odds.
As to when cycle 24 will return to minimum, and how long that minimum will last…I am not willing or able to predict.
Hi Gerry
I regularly update PF from WSO, here is what latest info looks like:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm
It appears that the NASA’s SDO image has different (unbalanced) image processing for two hemispheres.
here enhanced by applying gamma correction.
vukcevic says:
March 8, 2011 at 11:18 pm
tallbloke says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:18 pm
I blogged on the forthcoming perihelion of Jupiter a while back
Rog
there is also a lunar perigee on 19th of March March, with full moon. Call to all luna-tics to be on their best behaviour.
It’ll also be the closest perigee for 18 years: 356577 km. And Full moon occurs at perigee to within the hour. Not the right day for coastal canoeing.
@vukcevic says:
March 10, 2011 at 8:00 am
Every time it is more remarkable!
Dear Vuk: Can´t find access to your formulas web page.
X class flare yesterday!
Thanks Rog, things are building up. We will be hit a glancing blow by a CME today and I’m not liking the look of coronal hole CH439, on the SP CH ‘trunk’, which will be Earth facing today.
Time to fill up the standby generator, just in case…
Picture of CH439 (or Trunkey) here…
Ulric Lyons says:
March 9, 2011 at 12:06 am
@ Anything is possible says:
March 8, 2011 at 8:04 pm
“I note that Jupiter is very close to perihelion (it actually occurs on the 17th.) Anybody else thinking that the current outbreak of Solar activity is linked in any way?”
Not on it`s own, it takes two or more bodies to do something, if one is at perigee or two are on the same plane, it will make a difference. I can think of at least three reasons for the recent rise in activity, S*J on Feb 22nd, and always, how the inner planets are configured. For example, active periods 2010~ early April, early and mid August, late December, and 2011 mid February, all had stelliums/syzygies involving minor planet Ceres (there goes the tidal theory!).
On the recent position of Jupiter, looking at some 1500yrs of weather records, colder winters are common when Jupiter is towards the South Galactic pole, which it is now moving away from.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Let’s see what happens to the Sun on April 4, when Earth lines up with Saturn in opposition to Jupiter, which will still be not far from perihelion at that time. Then on April 6, wild card Mercury is in the J – S line-up in opposition to Jupiter. Just a reminder folks – this is Astronomy, despite the astrological flavor of the terminology.
vukcevic says:
March 10, 2011 at 8:00 am
Hi Gerry
I regularly update PF from WSO, here is what latest info looks like:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Vuc,
Thanks. Your WSO extrapolation in the top figure looks pretty good to me, indicating a probable zero crossing slightly after mid-2011 (~2011.6) instead of slightly before, as I guestimated from Leif’s plot. So, SC 24 max seems about as likely to occur in early 2012 as it is to happen in late 2011. Of course, this is all based on extrapolation of what we know now. What we don’t yet know may well turn out to be more important.
It´s good to remember:
New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?
by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt
Abstract:
Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.
Has anyone around here written any software to look at near planetary alignments along the Sun’s mag field lines (i.e. per the Parker Spiral)? I’ve been thinking of doing this for a while to look for any correlation with big flare events. Writing it from scratch would take a while, anyone know of any open source libraries/datasets I can leverage? (C/C++ preferred).
Sat/Venus/Mercury straight line alignments often do something interesting but there are too many that don’t.
Zeke the Sneak says: March 8, 2011 at 6:20 pm
I find it interesting that Dr S finds such fault with your interesting formula, which fits solar activity and makes a future trajectory.
Sun’s polar fields in the early 1960s were HIGH
In the paper:
MODELING THE SUN’S MAGNETIC FIELD AND IRRADIANCE SINCE 1713
Y.-M. Wang, J. L. Lean, and N. R. Sheeley, Jr.
Code 7670, E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375-5352;
The Astrophysical Journal, 625:522–538, 2005 May 20
# 2005. Copyright is not claimed for this article. Printed in U.S.A.
Click to access MM_TSI_Wang_ApJ_2005.pdf
page 525 (5/17)
there is a reconstruction of the Sun’s polar fields.
I have copied and pasted an inset over the graph of my formula of polar field.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2a.htm
It can be clearly seen that polar field in the early 1960’s was not low as Dr. Svalgaard maintains. (formula can be seen clearly here: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm)
This should once for all resolve our perennial disagreement on the matter. I
Vuc, any chance of one of your mag graphs for the latest incident out east?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm
Since this Landscheidt minimum is a Dalton repeat, of course, it is no coincidence that it
is behaving like one: i.e. it will reach a sun spot number of about 50. If it stretches out to around 13 years, then there is a possibility of a grand Maunder minimum emerging- that is, if the sunspots wink out due to decreasing solar gauss. Last I checked, the solar gauss is still dropping.
vukcevic says:
March 11, 2011 at 10:29 am Interesting graphs Vuk. looks like the twisting of fields and then release overloads things. The ancients claimed that quakes came after astro stress events. At least we live in interesting times. 🙂 pg
Thanks to Roger Andrews https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/03/07/dr-david-hathaway-new-lower-solar-cycle-24-prediction/#comment-5433
I’ve got a lot of temp breakdowns now, so I am prepared (mostly) to split out how a temp fall related to the solar cycle 24 should show up. It ain’t straightforward, surprise, surprise.
The question is what temp drop value to use, over what time-frame. I figure that 2X “normal” up and down should get a standard deviation happiness from you more statistically oriented guys. Which to me is about 0.4K over 8 years. A little small considering the rhetoric about the solar cycle-temp connections. Any comments on what youse guys have thought about what is going to/might happen?
I’ve come across the source of the solar polar field data.
http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html
Had a little look at the data which as expected is awkward as is all solar data.
Gut feel, is dominated by two terms: the same terms which are two dominant terms in the solar barycentre data.
The data is too short for much in the way of nailing for definite.
I decided to do something ludicrous after having a fiddle (sound of violins). Yup, me all over.
I jammed the model periods from a rough solar barycentre model into the configuration and locked the periods.
Orf you go, twiddles for not long and completes. r2=0.975 which is about all it wants to do on it’s own.
Drop the result into an existing data display. Looks sane.
Oh I didn’t say, this is actually two existing setups, the other runs from 1749 and is ssn data. This is what looks sane. I didn’t say correct.
The match with the input data is good except for one detail. The latest data is heading for zero field very fast.
Forecast for zero field, which is peak of next spot sun
I’ve rebased and reduced to monthly for these figures, is actually 10 day.
2013.71 -6.73
2013.79 -3.92
2013.87 -1 November
2013.96 2 December
2014.04 5.09
2014.12 8.26
I’ve done no work on forecast ability so this is me being nuts.
Now, why the nutty part? If I do a simple software run it matches the data well enough r2=0.982 but the short forecast is nutty. It shows a strange wiggle.
Rebasing again for short display here
2011.83 -14.96
2011.91 -14.47
2012 -14.44
2012.08 -14.23
2012.16 -13.25
2012.25 -11.13
2012.33 -7.89
2012.41 -3.9
2012.5 0.21
2012.58 3.72
2012.66 6.01
2012.75 6.77
2012.83 6.05
2012.91 4.25
2013 2
2013.08 -0.01
2013.16 -1.27
2013.25 -1.55
2013.33 -1.01
2013.41 -0.13
2013.5 0.48
2013.58 0.2
2013.66 -1.37
2013.75 -4.27
2013.83 -8.16
2013.91 -12.45
Make of that what you will.
Wow!
Top work Tim. I’ll set up a new thread for this.
Just noticed a snippet. That WSO current sheet data, there is a second blip as the field zero crosses.
Looks like 1999 when the solar wind dropped to zero for a day.
Well, I read that two extended solar cycles in a row is an indicator for the onset of a Maunder like minimum. At present, this is a repeat Dalton minimum (which did not get much above 50). Just looking at the curve shows this is happening.