UPDATE 20-3-2012 New thread:
UPDATE 13-6-2011. New thread with links to all seismic related posts on this blog here:
A NEW Zealand mathematician who predicted the deadly Christchurch quake has terrified Kiwis with news another will strike the city in two weeks.
Popular long-range weather forecaster Ken Ring is warning that a second jolt will hit the already-devastated South Island city on March 20.
Mr Ring, who lives in Auckland, uses the moon, sun and tidal activity for the basis of his theories, which have been dismissed by scientists.
His warning is clear.
If I lived in Christchurch, I’d get out for a few days over that time, go camping, visit friends, just get out and keep safe…And if you don’t live there, stay away.
His frightening words have panicked New Zealanders, with hundreds using Twitter and Facebook to brand his theories as “crackpot”, “wacky” and scientifically baseless.
Despite this, his following is substantial, with more than 5000 New Zealanders – including farmers, gardeners and even disaster specialists – signed up to receive his weather predictions.
On Valentine’s Day, he issued a tweet stating that conditions were “potent” for a quake in Christchurch between February 15 and 25.
A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck on February 22, killing as many as 240 people.
Full story here.
I’ve read Ken Ring’s book, ‘Predicting the Weather by the Moon‘ and found it very interesting, (free download from that link). Given that there is a full Moon on March Nineteenth which coincides with the closest Lunar perigee in 18 years (closest approach to Earth) to within the hour, and Jupiter is also at Perigee at the same time, I would not dismiss Ken’s warning out of hand. Especially as he was right about the recent quake, albeit within a widish timeframe.
Ken is aware that his predictions cause alarm, but says he wouldn’t be able to live with himself if he said nothing and there was another quake. A tough position to be in.
Our best wishes to Ken and the people of Christchurch at this difficult time.
UPDATE There is an excellent audio interview with Ken Ring Here: http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Ken-Ring-predicted-Chch-Earthquake-and-the-current-terrible-weather/tabid/506/articleID/16322/Default.aspx
UPDATE 2 Breaking News: Huge Quake Hits Japan
A huge 8.9 quake off the coast of Japan (2.46pm local time) has caused huge waves to break into coastal areas and will produce Tsunamis across all of the pacific basin, including New Zealand. It has been confirmed as Japan’s biggest recorded quake. Tsunami warnings here: http://www.weather.gov/ptwc/
- At least 40 people reported dead and several people buried in landslide
- People in cars try to outrun waves on coastal highways
- Hundreds on-board ship swept away by merciless waves
- State of emergency at nuclear plant after cooling systems fail
- Hundreds injured after ceiling caves in at Tokyo graduation ceremony
- Physicist describes event as one of history’s ‘great quakes’
- Buildings rocked in China’s capital Beijing, 1,500 miles away
- Hawaii on tsunami alert: Wave expected to hit at 3am local time
- UK airlines cancel flights to Tokyo following the devastation
A large number of aftershocks are occurring:
Volcanoes and earthquakes happen more frequently when the Sun has been inactive for a while. Contributor Gray Stevens has some stats on his website which say there is about twice as much earthquake energy released when the sun is less active than average.
Contributor Ulric Lyons points out volcanoes frequently occur when there have been sudden temperature uplifts coincident with sudden increases in solar wind speed.
Just such an increase took place today when the gust of high speed solar wind caused by the X class solar flare two days ago reached Earth. Contibutor Vukcevic has put together some excellent solar and geomagnetic information covering the present timeframe here http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm
There is a lot to learn about the causes of the timing of earthquakes and volcano eruptions. In the meantime, our thoughts are with those affected by these events. Anyone who wants to use the donate button today will get the money sent to the appeals which will be sent out following this devastating event.