Ed Fix: model plots and csv downloads

Ed Fix has sent me a couple of his latest plots generated by the model has developed to simulate solar planetary effects on solar variation. The CSV files are available for download below the plots too, along with some discussion. Ed plans to expand on that discussion soon.

Some folks were trying to overlay my model plot that David Archibald posted on WUWT with some of their own work for comparison purposes.  I promised to provide a csv data file to make that easier, and here it is.

Plot 1 is the model starting in 1912, during the last quiescent time, and moving on from there.  Plot 2 provides an illustration of what the model does when it misses the real data.  The model showed a sunspot peak about 1952, when the historical data actually showed that peak about 1948.  I manually moved the peak to it’s historical spot, and let the model continue.  The result is shown in Plot 2, and is fairly close to the plot that David used (that was actually from an earlier effort, I believe).

This illustrates the difficulty inherent in making predictions based on this type of model.  If the model is off at one point, that has effects on several cycles following.

Because this first, simple version of this model has weaknesses that
prevent it from replicating such obvious features as (for instance) the
Maunder Minimum, I have no confidence that this projection for Cycle 24
is reliable. I’ve been working on addressing those weakness, and I now
believe the current cycle will be a long, relatively weak cycle, with an
extra kick starting in 2013.

Again, I apologize for the secrecy.  It’s not just a matter of copyright; I made a committment to Elsevier that they have the right to publish first.  As a matter of personal integrity, I take that seriously, and it would apply whether the paper is profound, trivial, or erroneous.  That’s why I won’t discuss the meat of the paper in an open forum before it’s published.  Even after publication, I am not free to post the actual paper on a website.  I can and will, however, synopsize, paraphrase, and talk about what has happened since.  If anyone’s interested.

CSV for plot 1

CSV for plot 2