I’ve been challenged a couple of times by Bob Tisdale to substantiate my claim that ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is related to the solar cycle. I have said that El Nino tends to start occurring on the declining side of the cycle, the big ones at or just after solar minimum.
I’ve prepared a couple of graphs to see if anyone else agrees with me. First the longerterm view, using the reconstruction of ENSO back to 1860:
And here is the more recent past, from 1950
So, am I right or not? You decide, and tell me below. If we agree that I am, we can start to look at the reason why, and what effect it has on comparisons of solar activity levels with the surface temperature record.