After years of pooh poohing Theodor Landscheidt’s methods, work and predictions, mainstream solar physics has made an announcement of the strong possibility of a protracted solar minimum with consequences for Earth’s climate.
Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years.
The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated.
The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.
Currently, the sun is in the midst of the period designated as Cycle 24 and is ramping up toward the cycle’s period of maximum activity. However, the recent findings indicate that the activity in the next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle 25, could be greatly reduced. In fact, some scientists are questioning whether this drop in activity could lead to a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 when the sun showed virtually no sunspots.
“We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now, but we see no sign of it,” Hill said. “This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.”
If the models prove accurate and the trends continue, the implications could be far-reaching.
“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill said. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”
The implications are enormous, but don’t come as a big surprise to readers of this blog or WUWT’s solar threads, where a group of planetary theorists, including Geoff Sharp M.A. Vukcevic, Patrick Geryl and myself have been trying to tell all who will listen that far from the big solar cycle 24 predicted by the mainstream physicists, the sun was likely going to quieten down for a long spell. Leif Svalgaard’s predictions for a solar cycle 25 bigger than the current low cycle, made as recently as a fortnight ago, now seem to be in doubt.
More detail on the proceedings at the New Mexico workshop here:
More from the New Mexico workshop as it is announced, in the meantime, lets discuss what this means for the climate science community too. All the blandishments about how little changes in solar activity affect Earth’s climate system are now seen for the unsubstantiated nonsense they always were. Just as we’ve been saying here since this blog started in November 2009, and before that on WUWT and solarcycle24.com
Here is Landscheidt’s prediction, made in his 2003 paper
New Little Ice Age
Instead of Global Warming
We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong. The outcome of this further long-range climate forecast solely based on solar activity may be considered to be a touchstone of the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming.
Using the barycentric motion data, Landscheidt constructed this graph: