Past prophesies of future solar inactivity and cooler climate

Posted: June 15, 2011 by tallbloke in climate, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

Thunderbolts contributor ‘Persian Paladin’ offers this compendium of :

Researchers who have predicted a long term solar minimum or ‘solar hibernation’ and/or a new climate change to a period of long lasting cold weather based upon solar activity.

1. Dr. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: Russian Academy of Scientists. Head of space research at the Pulkova Observatory, St. Petersburg.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: “Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060….He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today….”

2. David Archibald. Summa Development Limited. (Australia).
From his paper: Archibald, D.C., (2006), Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response, Energy and Environment, Vol.17, No.1.
Comment from paper: “Based on a solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5C is predicted to 2020 equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum.”

3. Dr. O.G.Badalyan, and Dr.V.N. Obridko, Institute of Terrestrial Magnestism. Russia, Dr.J.Sykora. Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovak Republic.
From their paper: Balalyan, O.G., V.N. Obridko, and J. Sykora, (2000), Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23 and 24, Solar Physics, 199: pp.421-435.
Comment from paper: “ A slow increase in (intensity of coronal green line) in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number (number of sunspots) cycle 24 with the maximum W~50 at 2010-2011.” (Note: a 50 sunspot level is a Dalton class minimum)

4. Dr. B. P. Bonev, Dr. Kaloyan M. Penev, Dr. Stefano Sello.
From their paper: Bonev, B.P., et. al., (2004), Long term solar variability and the solar cycle in the 21st century, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 605, pp.L81-L84.
Comment from their paper: “…we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in long term solar variability.”

5. John L. Casey, Director, Space and Science Research Center. Orlando, Florida
From the center’s research report: Casey, John L. (2008), The existence of ‘relational cycles’ of solar activity on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, as significant models of climate change on earth. SSRC Research Report 1-2008 – The RC Theory, http://www.spaceandscience.net.
Comments from the research report:
“ As a result of the theory, it can be predicted that the next solar minimum may start within the next 3-14 years, and last 2-3 solar cycles or approximately 22-33 years. …It is estimated that there will be a global temperature drop on average between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C, if not lower, at least on the scale of the Dalton Minimum. …This forecast next solar minimum will likely be accompanied by the coldest period globally for the past 200 years and as such, has the potential to result in world wide, agricultural, social, and economic disruption.”

6. Dr. Peter Harris. Engineer, retired, Queensland, Australia.
From his analysis of glacial and interglacial cycles he concludes: “…we can say there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age.”

7. Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera. Researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
His comments from his research released in August 2008: “…in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts for 60-80 years.”

8. Dr’s. Y.T.Hong, H.B. Jiang, T.S. Liu, L.P.Zhou, J.Beer, H.D. Li, X.T.Leng, B.Hong, and X.G. Qin.
From their paper: Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in 6,000-year (isotope) O18 time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene 10.1 (2000) pp. 1-7.
The Chinese team of researchers observed “…a striking correspondence of climate events to nearly all of the apparent solar activity changes.”
In showing O18 isotope measurements were high during the coldest periods they concluded, “If the trend after AD 1950 continues…the next maximum of the peat O18 (and therefore cold maximum) would be expected between about AD 2000 and AD 2050.”

9. Dr. Boris Komitov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of
Astronomy, and Dr. Vladimir Kaftan: Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Moscow.
From their paper: Komitov, B., and V. Kaftan, (2004), The sunspot activity in the last two millennia on the basis of indirect and instrumented indexes: time series models and their extrapolations for the 21st century, paper presented at the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 223.
Comment from paper: “It follows from their extrapolations for the 21st century that a supercenturial solar minimum will be occurring during the next few decades….It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one.”

10. Dr. Theodor Landscheidt (1927- 2004), Schroeter Institiute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Canada)
Among his comments from many years of research on solar climate forcing include: “Contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man made warming as high as 5.8(degrees)C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”

11. Dr. Ernest Njau: University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
From his paper: Njau, E., (2005), Expected halt in current global warming trend?, Renewable Energy, Vol.30, Issue 5, pp.743-752.
Comment from paper: “… the mean ‘global temperature variations reaches the next peak about 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally it is shown that…Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035.”

12. Dr. Tim Patterson: Dept. of Earth Sciences, Carleton Univ., Can.
From an article in the Calgary Times: May 18, 2007. Indeed, one of the more interesting, if not alarming statements Patterson made before the Friends of Science luncheon is satellite data shows that by the year 2020 the next solar cycle is going to be solar cycle 25 – the weakest one since the Little Ice Age (that started in the 13th century and ended around 1860) a time when people living in London, England, used to walk on a frozen Thames River and food was scarcer. Patterson: “This should be a great strategic concern in Canada because nobody is farming north of us.” In other words, Canada – the great breadbasket of the world – just might not be able to grow grains in much of the prairies.

13.Dr’s. Ken K. Schatten and W.K.Tobiska.
From their paper presented at the 34th Solar Physics Division meeting of the American Astronomical Society, June 2003:
“The surprising result of these long range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”

14. Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin. Merited Scientist of Russia and Fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and researcher at the Oceanology Institute.
From recent news articles, regarding the next climate change he has said: “Astrophysics know two solar cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of irradiating solar surface….Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041,and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.”

15. Dr’s. Ian Wilson, Bob Carter, and I.A. Waite.
From their paper: Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle? Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 25(2) 85-93 June 2008).
Dr. Wilson adds the following clarification:
“It supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20-30 years. On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1-2 C.”

16. Dr’s. Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian. Nanjing Normal University, China
From their paper in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 95,115-121: Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years.
“… we believe global climate changes will be in a trend of falling in the following 20 years.”

Comments
  1. There are a lot more! I have gigas of these. Now, what is left it is just to know the details of building an Igloo 🙂

  2. Roger Andrews says:

    Make it even more awesome. Add my prediction:

    https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/ra-fig6.png?w=600&h=434

  3. malagaview says:

    Terracycles comment yesterday makes interesting reading…

    The solar barycenter transit of the solar surface has not extended for such a long period of time in over 6000 years. We can expect it to take about 150 years before the Sun returns to activity levels seen in the late 1900s.
    http://terracycles.blogspot.com/

  4. malagaview says:

    And 6,000 years reminds me of the Inconvenient Skeptic http://theinconvenientskeptic.com banner image…

  5. tallbloke says:

    M.V.: I took a quick look at the terracycles posting, but didn’t find it very informative. I wonder if Mr Thomson has a coherent theory of why the barycentre skimming the solar surface might have a particular effect, or whether he is just flying a kite.

  6. tallbloke says:

    Adolfo,
    See here for modern igloo building technique
    http://www.grandshelters.com/icebox-igloo.html

  7. The late Timo Niroma made the following graph:
    http://www.giurfa.com/timo

  8. tallbloke says:

    Good find!
    Timo’s 221 year repeat period is interesting. Close to the De Vries cycle and the figure Tim’s cycles analysis software determined.
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/02/21/tallbloke-and-tim-channon-a-cycles-analysis-approach-to-predicting-solar-activity/

  9. Lord Beaverbrook says:

    Excellant list of studies, how many were put forward to the IPCC but not included?

  10. tallbloke says:

    Good question. Steve MacIntyre would know where to look.

  11. tallbloke says:

    Michael Mann says:

    The cooling impact of the last prolonged solar lull “was probably only a couple tenths of a degree Celsius,” said climatologist Michael Mann of Penn State University. “It’s a tiny blip on the radar screen if you’re looking at the driving factors behind climate change.”

    🙂

  12. Tenuc says:

    Adolfo Giurfa says:
    June 15, 2011 at 7:23 pm
    “The late Timo Niroma made the following graph:
    http://www.giurfa.com/timo

    Thanks for posting Timo’s chart. Many others have spotted this 200y(ish) quasi-cyclic period in solar activity. However, due to spatio-temporal chaos the timing and scale of events never repeat exactly. Interestingly, warm periods will occur within a cool cycles and vice versa for warm – weather/climate seems to be fractal exhibiting self similarity at all scales…

    1410-1500 cold – Low Solar Activity(LSA?)-(Sporer minimum)
    1510-1600 warm – High Solar Activity(HSA?)
    1610-1700 cold – (LSA) (Maunder minimum)
    1710-1800 warm – (HSA)
    1810-1900 cold – (LSA) (Dalton minimum)
    1910-2000 warm – (HSA)
    2010-2100 (cold???) – (LSA???)

  13. Roger Andrews says:

    LB

    “Excellent list of studies, how many were put forward to the IPCC but not included?”

    The IPCC wouldn’t have considered any of these studies because it believes that the sun has a negligible impact on climate. According to the AR4 the increase in solar activity since the Maunder minimum caused less than 0.1C of surface warming, so why worry about a possible Maunder 2?

  14. Malaga View says:

    I took a quick look at the terracycles posting, but didn’t find it very informative

    Full text: http://www.terracycles.com/joomla/sections/2-solar/34-solarbarycenterupdate061710.html

    The present solar barycenter is located near the Sun’s surface. However, the barycenter is now taking a path a little deeper into the center of the Sun. Around 2012 we should be experiencing peak quietude in the Sun’s core. It will take a lot of energy to get the core’s momentum back into swing. We cannot expect to see that momentum build up until well after 2018 as seen in the image below:

  15. Tim Channon says:

    That could make sense in the context of the Wolff and Patrone paper which suggests a depth vs. energy release model and dwell being a part of that.

    Suggest some further ideas on what to try with the barycentre data.

    One of the confounding problems which prevents taking the barycentre idea seriously is the 178 year repeat where near identical conditions have associated very different sunspot behaviour. Sure the repeats are not identical, window dressing is very close.

  16. Doug Proctor says:

    I’ve plotted the C. de Jager temperature vs time plot he used in Atmospheric Physics etc. Journal V.71, pg. 97, on the same scales as the GISTemp official temperature records and find they don’t match. I’ve done aJPEG with the comparison, but don’t know how to attach it here. If you advise me how to do so I’ll show you the work.

    Odd. Of course the overlap is only 1880 to 1995, but it really doesn’t match. So the conclusions are ….

  17. tallbloke says:

    Doug, you can either upload the image to a free hosting service like flikr or ask me to email you so you can attach and return to me so I can upload it here.

  18. Doug Proctor says:

    Tallbloke,

    Thanks for the reply. I’m unsure about the flickr thing (need a 12-year-old here) but I`ll e-mail it with a JPEG attached. I worked a lot of hours with this trying to determine another angle at predicting what the GLOBAL temperature drop is likely to be (still sticking with a 0.4 to 0.5C) when, as Archibald suggests, you get a 2C drop at the Can-US midwest border (or in specific New England towns). Should have done my `smellcheck` long before I did a spellcheck.

    The graph I`m wondering about has been widely referenced and viewed the last few days, and comes from a respected journal: C. de Jager, S. Duhau: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 71 (2009) 194-198, itself referencing work that Easterbrook just noted has been superceded. Graph purports to show delta temperature vs time from 1625 to 1995.

  19. Doug Proctor says:

    Actually, it was Bob Tisdale at Climate Observations, June 17th 2011 that I’ve compared graphs to.

  20. Ulric Lyons says:

    Archibald`s tip of 2020 is reasonable, many others have overshot though. 2025 through till 2038 will be a warmer period. I am looking at 2013 being a very warm year, it could easily equal 2010. Things change fairly fast after that.

  21. Doug Proctor says:

    The Tisdale temp reconstruction 1750 to present (Climate Observations June 17th 2011) also doesn’t match the GISTemp profile 1900 to present. The UAH/CRU temp graph is lower and a high frequency version of the GISTemp graph, but of course for only 1994 forward.

    We have many temperatures, the choice of which seems to be arbitrary. Since the world is listening to Hansen et al, we’d best be using the GISTemp (with a caveat) when showing that observations are not matching theory. The GISTemp records, despite our understanding of their exaggeration, assist us, in that they are designed to support a large temperature rise; the more moderate the world is, the larger the discrepancy there will be with the GISTemp predictions.

    I’m sure Sun Tsu would agreee that using your enemies weakness to your advantage is better than struggling against his strength. His strength is his public profile and moral righteousness; his weakness is his data.

  22. tallbloke says:

    Doug, did you get my email?

  23. Doug Proctor says:

    Tallbloke,

    No, I didn’t.

    [reply] another coming now to the address you have given here

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