Leif Svalgaard says:
July 9, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Bob Barker says:
July 9, 2011 at 4:14 pm
SORCE TSI has not been updated since 2 June due to technical problems. Is there any more information about that situation?
Their website says: Weekly Status reports have been removed to comply with ITAR restrictions.
In case you wonder what ITAR is: http://www.pmddtc.state.gov/regulations_laws/itar_official.html
In short: the information is classified [for ‘non-US persons’]. Now speculate why that would be so…
Click image to view original webpage
tallbloke says:
July 11, 2011 at 5:54 am
Maybe someone upstairs has finally realised the sun is a lot more important to short term climate variation (hence military activity) than you’ve been trying to make us all believe.
Adrian Scaife of the Met office recently:
“We now believe that [the solar cycle] accounts for 50 per cent of the variability from year to year”
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 11, 2011 at 6:16 am
tallbloke says:
July 11, 2011 at 5:54 am
“We now believe that [the solar cycle] accounts for 50 per cent of the variability from year to year”
And that statement is obviously wrong. Amazing that you can be taken in by such nonsense.
tallbloke says:
July 12, 2011 at 12:50 pm
I’d like to hear Adrian Scaife enlarge on the statement before I decided what to make of his thinking.
I’m a bit astonished that no-one seems to be concerned that the most important climate metric is now classified information. What’s your thinking on the matter Leif?
————————–
Here’s the latest data image from Leif’s website.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Seems very strange. Outside of conspiracies, like the wrong message got put up. Nowhere to ask what the deal is?
Heh, I’ll send a stiff email to the US DoD demanding an explanation shall I? :).
At least we still have Leif’s site where he is updating the F10.7 flux and sunspot number and magnetic field data.
This is the most relevant document I can find on the linked ITAR page;
Click to access ITAR_Part_125.pdf
For anyone who can be bothered to wade through it…
I recall the satellite had serious technical problems.
Death is expected soon anyway.
I am highly amused, date, ITAR “Official Version, Published April 1, 2010” and like you no credible linkage comes to mind. Mistake?
“The SORCE batteries have shown steady degradation since 2009, and on May 1st the SORCE
spacecraft lost one of 22 battery cells. It was not unexpected, but still was disappointing news.”
…
“This battery loss means that all SORCE instruments, except TIM, will need to be power-cycled in the future to conserve battery power. SORCE operations are continuing with daily solar observations and we expect to be able to continue normal operations for many more months/years.” [ie. have no idea if it is about to go completely caput, catastrophic fail of one where there are many similar items is a very bad sign and will load up the remaining]
Also loses calibration.
Also
“In case you have recently experienced difficulties getting the latest SORCE data, let us explain. On Friday, June 10, 2011, the LASP database that serves both the SORCE science and spacecraft housekeeping data had a severe disk array failure. The SORCE operations team immediately restored use of the database to support ongoing spacecraft and instrument operations; however, restoration of the entire history of SORCE telemetry data and support for
science data processing activities is taking additional time.”
— June/July 2011 Newsletter.
The message on the web site might be a foulup related to the latter. Lost history and history unavailable kind of fit.
I would assume that beside measuring the TSI the satellite had some military observation equipment too (most of them probably do), and if it is power failure then the ITAR note would refer to the classified info part , rather than the TSI which could be only a minor section.
Good find Tim.
So, can SDO patch in to supply TSI readings I wonder. The onboard instruments don’t seem to be suited really. So are we going to get another ‘gap’ which will lead to as much fun and games in calibration as ACRIM did?
It’s frustrating, the most important climate metric is so unreliably measured…
Subsection 120.1 a) of Subchapter M of ITAR “authorizes the President to control the export … of defense articles and defense services”. Specific articles and services are described in the United States Munitions List. They include “satellites, remote sensing satellites, research satellites, navigation satellites, experimental and multi-mission satellites.” (Subsection 121.1, Category XV a))
So y’all better shred them TSI data right now before we throw your asses in Guantanamo.
lol! 🙂 🙂
The SORCE batteries have shown steady degradation since 2009…
It would seem, instead, that there has been a “steady degradation”of TSI which does not agrees well with the Global Warming Gospel 🙂
I’m over head here. But how does the TSI data at Physikalisch-Meteologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center fit into this?
The replacement for instrument was on the crashed GLORA satellite.
An older problem which is related
lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/sns/2010/sns_oct_2010.pdf
Also
” In the last Senior Review proposal, we had an estimate of 2015 or later for the SORCE battery life. ” — lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/sns/2009/sns_nov_dec_2009.pdf
Just to say I really enjoy your site and the excellent comments.
Not clever enough to add anything but learning lots.
OT
For attention of Orkney lad/girl:
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-07-exploration-north-atlantic-seabed-sea.html
Dennis,
They are trying to stitch together a hotch/potch of instruments without bridging
TIM/SORCE is in there and poses new problems if it ceases. has not been bridged properly.
TGW: welcome, feel free to ask for clarifications.
Tim: Glora had the co2 monitoring instrument on board that went into the southern ocean yes?
I am at a loss to understand why there are not TSI instruments on several satellites at any one time. The prospect of another gap and splice controversy is not pleasant.
vukcevic – many thanks big man! 🙂
V late here, I’ll have a proper look at that in the morn’.
@Vukcevic: That´s the legendary “Hiperborea”, the old “Thule”…
…..in any case, a rather INCONVENIENT sattelite…But, does “freedom of speech” apply to satellites? 🙂
TB, yes, I decided not to post mountains on the loss, satellite loss reported many times but the instrument loss might not have made such headlines.
Svalgaard has a new slide show, dated July 13, 2011 that discusses, among other things, the muddled history of TSI reconstruction attempts:
Click to access SHINE-2011-The-Forgotten-Sun.pdf
He nicely summarizes his findings:
“What a Mess! Our time series of solar activity indicators are inconsistent and poorly calibrated.
People pick the ones they like in support of their pet theories. We cannot provide other disciplines with properly vetted solar data.”
Gerry, that’s the preamble to the conference Leif is at this month where he will try to get everyone to accept his own reconstruction and rearrangement of the sunspot record, including ‘adjustments’ to early SSN which are pretty huge. I’ll be doing a post on this soon.
Gerry says:
July 14, 2011 at 6:32 am
Svalgaard has a new slide show
Obviously Svalgaard’s agenda is a ‘flat solar output’, the L&P was overcooked in order to get over the ‘inconvenient local difficulty’ of the forthcoming minimum, even the Maunder minimum now is explained in terms of L&P.This idea appear to be a flop rather than a revolution in the academia.
Few days after I put up this on WUWT
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/L&Pd.htm
and the tb’s remark about crayons, our doc doctored his graph and few days later replaced it by a new one (looks a bit of a mess to me), here is a comparison of two:
(he took his revenge a week or two later by getting WUWT to ‘nearly’ ban me from posting there).
LS is now taking a different tack. It is going to be fun watching further developments.
“and the tb’s remark about crayons”
🙂
New article by Michele Casati at NIA, with quotes and references to Rog and Vuk:
http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=15034
[Link to Google translate from Italian – tim]
The time-integral of sunspot numbers, properly reduced by earth IR radiation by using conservation of energy, accurately (R2=0.88) correlates with the up and down trajectory of average global temperatures since 1895 as shown in the pdf made public 3/8/11 at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true
Hi Dan, thanks for your interesting pdf. I did a sunspot integration exercise at around the same date which I published on the blog last year. See this post:
I then incorporated it into a simple model which shows the curves obtained when using ssn and LOD, and using solar motion relative to the solar system centre of mass as proxies for those quantities
Had further look to see if more information can be gleaned about the satellite.
“NOTICE: Due to technical problems, some SORCE data products have not been updated since 2 June 2011.”
But then there is further confusion, the data availability plot show data availabiliy cessation for *all* data except for TIM after May 2011. TIM is shown as available to date, where plot says to Jul 2011.
Data availability and instruments actually delivering data are not the same thing.
The mess continues with LISIRD supposedly a data mirror. Claims to date for TIM but ends during 2010. “SORCE: (25-Feb-2003 to present, 116-1600nm) .zip file ~27.7MB, ~200MB uncompressed”
Pulling the full TSI data from the main server, the last entry is 20110705.88
American data and so I clarify, 5th July 2011, 18hrs. (6 hour data)
Bad, update is normally same day.
Looking very closely the silence is deafening.
Not bothering doing more. Deep Internet search can be very time consuming.
Tim,
It might be worth plotting the last few months of data in the file to see if there are obvious signs of degradation, and if so what form it takes. Thanks for the sleuthing work.
Normal.
The ITAR restriction message could be somewhat in error, maybe. SORCE suffered a hard drive failure and here’s some info on it. Obscure mention but nevertheless…
ref: page 5 http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/sns/2011/sns_June_July_2011.pdf
“SORCE Database Issues –
By Doug Lindholm, LASP, Univ. of Colorado
In case you have recently experienced difficulties getting the latest SORCE data, let us explain. On Friday, June 10, 2011, the LASP database that serves both the SORCE science and spacecraft housekeeping data had a severe disk array failure. The SORCE operations team immediately restored use of the database to support ongoing spacecraft and instrument operations; however, restoration of the entire history of SORCE telemetry data and support for science data processing activities is taking additional time.”
Tallbloke,
I also played with the sunspot area some, actually the square root of area. If there were only one spot, this would be proportional to the margin (faculae?) length. With many sunspots (>5) the length of margins approaches being proportional to the number of sunspots. My work on that idea produced nothing.
The correlation of calculated average global temperature with sunspot number turned out to be a much better, in fact excellent , correlation.