Incoming! Three CME coronal mass ejections on their way: solar magnetic storm imminent

Posted: August 4, 2011 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, Energy, Geomagnetism, Solar physics, solar system dynamics, weather
Danger, protons , three CME !

Update
http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/422/2011fa.jpg
and
http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=15437
H/T Michele Casati

Image courtesy of spaceweather.com

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: For the third day in a row, active sunspot 1261 has unleashed a strong M-class solar flare. The latest blast at 0357 UT on August 4th registered M9.3 on the Richter Scale of Flares, almost crossing the threshold into X-territory (X-flares are the most powerful kind). The number of energetic protons around Earth has jumped nearly 100-fold as a result of this event. Stay tuned for updates.

INCOMING CLOUDS: At least two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are now en route to Earth, propelled toward us by eruptions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot 1261 on August 2nd and 3rd. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab have just produced a new 3-D model of the advancing CMEs.

According to the model, Earth’s magnetic field will receive a double-strike from the clouds on August 4th at 22:39 UT plus minus 7 hours. Mild to moderate geomagnetic storms are possible when the CMEs arrive.

More at http://spaceweather.com/

You probably don’t need to lock up your lappy in a MuMetal box this time, but watch out for data glitches and disrupted comms packets. 🙂

Comments
  1. Dan says:

    I find this computer simulation most intriguing, especially in the way it accounts for the torsional effects of the suns magnetic field. And the path that the CME traverses is anything but linear. This might help people visualize the planetary position link to the sunspot cycle and solar discharge theories.


    Anyone know where this was generated and by whom?

  2. vukcevic says:

    You can follow it here :

  3. Dan says:

    I just found this site as well, planetary TAB has some great info…

    http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/

  4. tallbloke says:

    Instant crowdsourced live info page!

    Bonzer!! Thanks everyone. 🙂 🙂

    Dan, that’s generated from GONG data by NASA I think.

    http://gong.nso.edu/

  5. Chris Aviss says:

    “Stay tuned for updates.”
    I most certainly will. Thanks for the info.

  6. tallbloke says:

    The thing that concerns me a bit is the way the faster moving second wave seems to catch up with the first just around the time it’s passing Earth. Double whammy major spike induction loop anyone?

  7. http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=04&month=08&year=2011

    Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route.

    11 march 2011 …2200Km/s

  8. Doug Proctor says:

    And the result in our sky was …..

    At what level does the show become alarming enough for the MSM to notice?

  9. tallbloke says:

    Doug, probably at the level where they are unable to communicate their surprise to us… 🙂

    Dynamic pressure reading is up over 10 on the solar windspeed indicator on the top left of the blog at the moment…

  10. vukcevic says:

    Last night magnetic storm was rated severe:
    http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/aphisto.png

    http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_kp_3d.gif

    http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/~pyle/TheThPlot.gif

    AP index peak hit 207, while dBz at Tromso was >1200nT pp (GMF Tromzo Bz ~ 52200nT) or 2.3% of the Earth’s field.

  11. tallbloke says:

    “Last night’s magnetic storm was rated severe”

    Any melted transformers? No?
    Anybody’s iPhone need rebooting??

    🙂

  12. Charge….

    GOES-13 Proton Fluence.
    — Protons/cm2-day-sr —
    >1 MeV
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2011Q1_DPD.txt
    2011 03 07 5.2e+05
    2011 03 08 1.5e+07
    2011 03 09 1.8e+07
    2011 03 10 4.5e+07
    2011 03 11 1.4e+07
    2011 03 12 1.6e+06
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2011Q2_DPD.txt
    2011 06 05 1.3e+06
    2011 06 06 1.8e+06
    2011 06 07 1.1e+07
    2011 06 08 2.3e+07
    2011 06 09 7.0e+06
    ……
    …….
    ………
    2011 06 16 4.3e+06
    2011 06 17 3.2e+07
    2011 06 18 2.8e+07
    2011 06 19 5.0e+06
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2011Q3_DPD.txt
    2011 08 03 5.0e+05
    2011 08 04 8.5e+06
    2011 08 05 9.7e+07

    Discharge….
    Switch ?


  13. tallbloke says:

    Cool alignment image!

    Thanks Michele

  14. Tenuc says:

    Moscow Neutron Monitor showing the large Forbush event caused by the multiple CMEs…


  15. tallbloke says:

    Certainly got cloudier where I live. Floods in Durham yesterday too.

    More support for Svensmark?