Figure 1 is trace from Seismic Monitoring & Research Unit, University of Malta. Link is numeric and might vanish, here
I’m having trouble reaching some montoring sites, with many servers down, presumably overloaded. There were two quakes, magnitude still being finalised. For first and main event 7.2 and a large aftershock at 6.0 News as I edit this says around 150 dead, estimate is 500 to 700 and I wouldn’t be surprised if the final toll is 1000. Turkey is highly seismically active so they are used to ‘quakes and as well organised as is reasonable. The weather is a problem, it is currently well below freezing and many many people are sleeping outside without shelter. Electricity and water is lost.
[update 5th Nov, Earthquake report headline is now “Earthquake Van – Ercis, Turkey – Death toll now at 601+, with 4152 injured, at least 8321 households long-term homeless”, which is right in the middle of the estimate figure — Tim]
Map from European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre

Figure 3, fault and historic quake map to 2009, Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, Earthquake Department Ankara, Turkey
Site for the above image with more maps and some information about the current situation is here in Turkish unless you can get English to work. Van province is in the far east of the country. Detailed report which might be upseting are being carried by the excellent Earthquake-Report web site. Please return here later.








Given the sun is active, CME hits earth but not so far as I can see co-incident with the quake, any comments?
http://sidc.oma.be/news/141/welcome.html
Update official report @14:00
Dead: 279, injured: 1,300, collapsed buildings : 2,262
Hi Tim,
I’m sorry I’m late….
🙂
In summary,
Input new moon and lunar perigee.
Moon no perfect alignment.
2/3 hours before, the moon up the earthquake epicenter.
But the significant trigger is ….
very low solar wind ….
270Km/s.
Do you remember my previous article:
Virginia,Colorado etc…
Look :

23 Oct 2011

2 ° perigee most influential current year.
Distance from the earth =
357.054 km.
The official number of fatalities has increased to 459
I fear it is far worse because time is running out for any survivors in low temperatures and there a many collapsed buildings.
“The only sound loss estimate currently available is provided by KOERI with 700 to 1000 fatalities, with PAGER reanalysing their data to bring the value from 10,000 fatalities to just over 1000 fatalities. We estimate the direct economic loss to be in the order of 500-1000 million USD given past Turkish earthquakes, damage and intensities seen and the current economic status of the region.” eqr
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00ltshuy.php
Magnitude 6.9 – NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
I tribute…Gray Stevens
Jupiter dance
http://www.jupitersdance.com/
http://www.ncgt.org/newsletter.php?action=download&id=98
SUN, MOON AND EARTHQUAKES
V. G. Kolvankar
Abstract
During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun’s position in terms of universal time (GMT) shows links to the earthquake-lunar distance together with Sun-Earth-Moon angle. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that nearly 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun’s position and the earthquake-moon distance together with the Sun-Earth-Moon angle. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the sum of the earthquake-moon distance and the Sun-Earth-Moon angle changes through 360 0 , and plotting these two variables for different earthquakes reveals a simple 45 0 straight-line relationship between them.
New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter
Issue: 60 – September 2011 – Page:50
An old miner tails,( as “old wives tails”) was that, one should stay out of underground workings around 01:00 am local time, as that was the time of greatest rock falls and wall blow outs inside mines.
Don’t know if there is any scientific bases. Just was a warning to me from an old miner when he learned I was evaluating some old workings in Alaska. He told me miners tried to stay out of the workings from 10:00pm to 4:00am. pg
@P.G. Sharrow : And worst if the Moon is at the zenith.
Guess there are “old miners” in Chile as well as in Alaska. 😎 pg
Click to access on-the-relation-between-solar-activity-and-seismicity.pdf
“This means that the daj. of arrival of high speed solar
wind and the day following right after it are “special”
concerning the earthqu,ake appearance, they are
significantly different from all other days. On the other
hand, the day before the arrival of high speed solar wind
does not differ in any way liom all other days.”
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0006w6e.php
Magnitude 6.6 – BENI, BOLIVIA
2011 November 22 18:48:17 UTC
Bye
http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/
Hi, Rog
USGS say :
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3029
“Large earthquakes, in statistical terms, do not happen very often, even though they are noteworthy for their enormous consequences. In events that do not happen very often, random processes are highly variable and may appear clustered even if they are not,” said Dr. Michael. “While the probability of future large mainshocks has not increased, neither has it decreased.”
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terremoti_in_Italia
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1205-01-&volpage=var#bgvn_3102
December, January, February, March ….
Only climategate…
no..no….
also
Geology-gate
🙂
Bye
michele
Grazie Michele,
It looks like there is a 2-4 anno lag between heliosphere and siesmic activity.
Rog ..
lower value field nanoTesla —–> greater magnitude earthquake
What is gravitation and electromagnetism….??
if IMF nanoTesla = 0 ?
look….
10325BP
Solar wind 230 Km/s.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0007dax.php
Magnitude 6.6 – SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
2011 December 27 15:21:56 UTC
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0007fbh.php
Magnitude 6.8 – IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
2012 January 01 05:27:54 UTC
Forecasting….big earthquake 12-13 January ?
Probability…..Interplanetry magnetic field low.
small sunspots
http://www.solarham.com/stereobehind.htm
Earth-Venus-Neptune alignment.

Big question ?
I study the continent…
[…] techniques built on the work of Rafaele Bendandi, Talkshop contributor Michele Casati warned yesterday of possible earthquake action in the near future. Share […]
Forecasting….big earthquake 12-13 January ?
Two days before…..
I work for best forecasting for you.
Look…The moon !
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0007ir5.php
@Michele says:
January 10, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Michele! you have 2 more days. Where is the track of greatest distortion? 😉 pg
Hi,
P.G.
There is not “only” moon !
A football team has 11 players.
The solar system consists of 9 planets and reserves.
We have to analyze entire team or single player ?
You think example Raffaele Bendandi parallelograms..
but…is not..
I have a question in the my mind !
Analysis of this event…
The first hypothesis :
Today Only 1 planet, the moon.

a) Stress Input in the new moon ..trend…07-08 and 09-01-2012
Look:
Ring of Fire Stress , previous days.
The second hypothesis :
12,13 January…. NEW EARTHQUAKE !
b) Earth-Venus-Neptune alignment and other planets
The next 12,13 solution to the question.
@Michele: “Luna, luna, porta fortuna” ,”moon, moon, give us fortune” says an old italian pledge made to the moon, raising a silver coin with a hand and presenting it to the moon; however this moon does not give anything but takes from the earth. 🙂
It seems there is a connection between Sun-Earth-Moon…
adolfogiurfa says:
January 11, 2012 at 2:15 am
“…however this moon does not give anything but takes from the earth. 🙂
It seems there is a connection between Sun-Earth-Moon…
I think that’s a bit harsh, Adolfo… 🙂
Without the stirring effect of lunar gravity we would have not tides, which are a vital part of our nice stable long-term climate system which lets our biosphere thrive. Also read somewhere that the moon acts as a governor and help stabilise axial recession. So all in all our planet just wouldn’t be the same place to live without our beautiful neighbour.
Other data ..
previous earthquake :
Magnitude 7.3 – OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
2012 January 10 18:37:01 UTC
Not only moon..but…
Click to access on-the-relation-between-solar-activity-and-seismicity.pdf
“This means that the daj. of arrival of high speed solar
wind and the day following right after it are “special”
concerning the earthqu,ake appearance, they are
significantly different from all other days. On the other
hand, the day before the arrival of high speed solar wind
does not differ in any way liom all other days.”
Look : 18/19 UTC.

Synchrony lunar & solar.
I say…
“Forecasting….big earthquake 12-13 January ?”
10/01/12
Magnitude 7.3 – OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
2012 January 10 18:37:01 UTC
and
Today 15/01/12
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00lxudza.php
Magnitude 6.5 – SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
2012 January 15 13:40:17 UTC
Jump …Solar wind 350 Km/s.
🙂
@ Michele; I don’t think you should celebrate to much on your prognostication. You missed your window by two days in each direction and just hit the latitudes. We have had a lot of activity in the south hemisphere of late, very active for some time. Makes the little twinkles we are having here in North America pale in contrast. The changes in the earth’s magnetic fields are causing warpage and movements in the continental plates. Both in place and in elevation. Your alignments must have something to do with it, as the field changes are caused by material flows in the earth’s mantel and core. pg
@ P.G.
say:
“I don’t think you should celebrate to much on your prognostication.”
My comment is short and not interpreted correctly. My error because I spake baby english,
sorry
It is not primarily a prediction but a study
Studies are ongoing and long.
” The changes in the earth’s magnetic fields are causing warpage and movements in the continental plates. Both in place and in elevation. Your alignments must have something to do with it, as the field changes are caused by material flows in the earth’s mantel and core.”
Quote, sun & planets
energy synchronous movements
My co-worker realized preliminary geocentric Analysis Software,
Look :

@Michele: your English is as entertaining as is your observations.
Keep up the good work and we both will learn.
“My co-worker realized preliminary geocentric Analysis Software,”
Does this mean your co-worker created this software or discovered another’s creation? pg
@ P.G.
Base software bendandi works.
user “ab2010” section Volcano&earthquakes my blog Daltonsminima
Last tree forecasting —-> Bingo ….yeahhh !
🙂
Siberia, Sumatra and south america
http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?page_id=9506
Translate post with google
bye
Protons records!
Danger geological event
Earthquake 11-03-2011 Japan
2011 03 08 1.5e+07
2011 03 09 1.8e+07
2011 03 10 4.5e+07
2011 03 11 1.4e+07
2011 03 12 1.6e+06
……
……..
2012 01 22 1.5e+07
2012 01 23 2.7e+08
Ionosphere – lithosphere interaction

2011:
Look volcanoes
http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=18491
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=252392
M 5.0 – NORTHERN ITALY – 2012-01-25 08:06 UTC
Swiss watch !
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00m0b698.php
Magnitude 6.9 – SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
2012 March 03 12:19:57 UTC
Sun-Earth-Mars 03-03-2012
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usb0008e4z.php
Magnitude 7.1 – VANUATU
2012 March 09 07:09:54 UTC
http://translate.google.it/translate?sl=it&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=it&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdaltonsminima.altervista.org%2F%3Fp%3D19603
[Reply] Fortissimo Michele!
Magnitude 6.9 – OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012 March 14 09:08:37 UTC
Earth-Venus-Jupiter alignment 14/03/2012
Planetary configuration dangerous
Low value of the heliosphere.
High probability….
No coronal hole, no sunspots, no CME.
New moon and alignament Sun-Mercury-moon-earth
I hope not exceeding magnitude M7
Now …. solar maximum approach.
Forecast….
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0008m6h.php
Magnitude 7.6 – OAXACA, MEXICO
2012 March 20 18:02:48 UTC
http://translate.google.it/translate?sl=it&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=it&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdaltonsminima.altervista.org%2F%3Fp%3D19788
Bravo Michele! I will post the result.
New Post for tallbloke….