Our world, happy new year everyone

Image credit DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

Our world as time slides into 2012.

Happy New Year

This is an open thread.

Clark: Energy resources and the future

This guest post is from Clark. My thanks to him for the time he has taken to draw together the material which has guided his argumentation regarding the issues around energy resources. Clark debates strongly, fairly and politely, so let’s return the compliment. Try not to swamp him, and be patient for replies – I know what it’s like being one against many in the climate debate!

Rog Tallbloke asked me to do a guest article, as a follow-on from a discussion that started at Craig Murray’s blog, and continued here:

http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2011/12/free-speech-for-the-unlovely/

https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/climate-realism-tallbloke-style/

At first, the global warming issue seemed pretty straight forward to me. There seemed to be a strong message coming from the scientific community, led by the UN appointed IPCC, that co2 emissions were a problem, and part of the problem was the difficulty of predicting just how serious it could get. Against this background there seemed to be the expected responses; governments saying they’d like to help but that their economies must take priority, and big businesses that were also major emitters of co2 trying to counter the science and oppose any co2 regulation.

Brace! Brace! : NYT article by Leslie Kaufman incoming!

Hi Leslie,

Thanks for running this past me before publication. There are a few incorrect details plus a couple of omissions which I’ll address below. I have also added a short personal statement. – Thanks.

1) Your full name is Roger Tattersalll
– Two ll’s at the end, not three.
2) you are trained as an engineer.
– yes, and I also hold a BA(hons) in History and Philosophy of Science

The Empire Hikes Back: The return of the ‘pooters

I got an email from Norfolk Police yesterday saying they have finished examining our laptop computers and asking if they could return them today. I ‘phoned back as requested and had a genial chat with the Detective Constable handling the handover.

He is on the road now and says he should arrive around mid day GMT. I hope he’s using the police Lambo, because I have stuff to do later.

I made it clear that I will sign for their return but not for their condition, which will be independently checked.

Christopher Booker: Climate Consensus Confusion

H/T Adolfo Giurfa for alerting me to this broadside from Booker in the Mail on Sunday online from earlier this year, which seems apropos at the moment.

Global warming? A new ice age? The only certainty is that YOU’RE paying for the hysteria of our politicians

By Christopher Booker

Who would possibly have thought it? The latest news is that the world may be threatened by a sharp drop in temperatures, possibly so severe that it could herald a new mini ice age.

And one reason being put forward for this is that all the pollution being chucked out by thousands of coal-fired power stations may be blocking the sun’s heat from the Earth.

Dr Robert Kaufman of Boston University blamed China this week. ‘During the Chinese economic expansion there was a huge increase in sulphur emissions,’ he said. And this was the cause of global cooling.

Ice age on its way? The latest news is that we may be threatened by a sharp drop in temperature

But hang on a moment. Aren’t these new climate scaremongers the very same people who only a few years back were telling us that the planet was in danger of being fried to a crisp by runaway global warming?

The Talkshop: End of Year Stats Report

It has been an exciting and eventful year at The Talkshop. This is reflected in the site stats, which show strong increases in traffic, especially around the Lisbon conference back in January, the scientific work done mid year and obviously Climategate 2 and the aftermath. I want to emphasise though that it is the solid contributions from our guest authors and my co-mod and contributor Tim Channon which are the backbone of success here, not my flash in the pan PR stunts! For this reason, I have changed the site title at the top of the page to be simply: The Talkshop, though the url will remain as tallbloke.wordpress.com for reasons of the way we are embedded in the internet’s search systems. The domain I bought at thetalkshop.info currently does a simple web-forward to wordpress, but I’ll be doing some nifty DNS work so that we can host currently unsupported filetypes such as excel spreadsheets for download.

Obviously it would be uncharacteristic of a talkshop post to be without some graphs and analysis, so here are the monthly page view stats since the blog started just over two years ago:

As you can see, there has been an unprecedented increase in visits recently. According to my PCA analysis, and by checking the tea-leaves at the bottom of my cup, I have been able to determine that this is due to a strong upsurge in scepticism regarding the Anthropogenic Global Warming Hype-othesis. The way this correlates with the number of Christmas presents bought over the same period is strong evidence that Santa Claus exists and hasn’t sunk through rotten ice after all, despite David Suzuki’s best efforts to remodel himself as the Grinch who stole Christmas by scaring children into thinking otherwise.

Due to recent interest we have made it onto the Alexa graphical stats system too. here’ a comparison with Andrew Montford’s excellent site at bishop-hill.net

Unified Theory of Climate, Nikolov and Zeller

Figure 10

Unified Theory of Climate
Expanding the Concept of Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Using
Thermodynamic Principles:
Implications for Predicting Future Climate Change
Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. & Karl Zeller, Ph.D.
Emails: ntconsulting@comcast.net kzeller@colostate.edu

Extended version of the poster presented at the Open Science Conference of the World Climate Research Program, 24 October 2011, Denver CO, USA http://www.wcrp-climate.org/conference2011/posters/C7/C7_Nikolov_M15A.pdf

Abstract

We present results from a new critical review of the atmospheric Greenhouse (GH) concept. Three main problems are identified with the current GH theory. It is demonstrated that thermodynamic principles  based on the Ideal Gas Law must be invoked to fully explain the Natural Greenhouse Effect, which essence is the boost of global surface temperature above that of an airless planet exposed to the same solar irradiance. We show via a novel analysis of planetary climates in the solar system that the physical nature of the so-called Greenhouse Effect is in fact a Pressure-induced Thermal Enhancement (PTE), which is independent of the atmospheric chemical composition. Hence, the down-welling infrared radiation (a.k.a. greenhouse- or back-radiation) is a product of the atmospheric temperature (maintained by solar heating and air pressure) rather than a cause for it. In other words, our results suggest that the GH effect is a thermodynamic phenomenon, not a radiative one as presently assumed. This finding leads to a new and very different paradigm of climate controls. Results from our research are combined with those from other studies to propose a Unified Theory of Climate, which explains a number of phenomena that the current theory fails to explain. Implications of the new paradigm for predicting future climate trends are briefly discussed.

Climate realism: Tallbloke style

Most of the heavy lifting regarding the maintenance of the atmospheric balance is done by the tiny aerobic organisms and flora  which collectively outweigh the human population and the fossil fuel it digs up by many orders of magnitude. They have been around several billions of years and are not going away anytime soon.

Various disasters have befallen the atmosphere in the deep past. None of them made the planet uninhabitable. When magnetic reversals occurred, large amounts of the atmosphere were lost to space, ripped away by the solar wind. When a mutant strain of algae proliferated, it starved the rest of the flora of much needed plant food gas (AKA co2), as in the Azolla Event. This lowered the atmospheric humidity and that made things colder.

Iron line to the pole

Image of solar FE XIV spectral line emission courtesty of the work of Richard C Altrock, at AFRL.

Legal Fund and action update

Thanks to the marvelous generosity and support received following the seizure of my computers by the Norfolk Police acting in collaboration with the NDET and the MET I have been able to make some progress on the legal front, with high quality and friendly-priced qualified legal assistance from my fellow climateer Stephen Wilde of Wilde & Co.

• The defamatory post put up by Zachary Shahan at one planetsave.com has been entirely removed.

• The defamatory post put up by Greg laden has been substantially revised, partially retracted, and an offer of a reply to be prominently promoted on scienceblogs.com has been received.
• The Norfolk police have confirmed by email that I am not suspected of any crime, and have authorised the submission of estimates for repair to my property and for losses incurred through depriving me of my computers.
• Although we have not yet secured the services of a stateside lawyer on suitable terms I will be pursuing this now that Stephen and Wilde & Co have completed their UK based work and are taking a  back seat in order to allow me to preserve the funds donated for the battle ahead.

Mike Hulme: Deficiencies of Climate Reductionism

A thoughtful Piece from Ex CRU insider and Tyndall Centre chief Mike Hulme:

” Now, a hundred years later, and at the beginning of a new century, heightening anxieties
about future anthropogenic climate change are fuelling – and in turn being fuelled by – a new
variety of the determinist fallacy. Although distinct from the politically and ethically discredited
climate determinism epitomised by Ellsworth Huntington and his followers, climate has regained
some of its former power for ‘explaining’ the performance of environments, peoples and
societies. In seeking to predict a climate-shaped future, the complexity of interactions between
climates, environments and societies is reduced and a new variant of climate determinism
emerges. I call this ‘climate reductionism’, a form of analysis and prediction in which climate is
first extracted from the matrix of interdependencies which shape human life within the physical
world.

A northern thermometer

Figure 1

A contentious dataset is published by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, with some people arguing one way, and some the opposite way on what is happening. This tends to be based on selective data.

Palestine, Sagan and atmospheric physics.

Figure 1

data from the tourist site

It’s Christmas 2011, what better place to start than Palestine, a region of many tribes, strife and politics.

Before you start, note I am Tim, not Tallbloke.

If you have read the title of the plots I guess you are wondering whether I have lost it, a fool, a denier in the face of a human social construct: everyone knows.

The Dead Sea region of the near East is the best known area which is far below sea level and is the termination of the Jordan river. Jericho is within the valley at perhaps 550Â 250 metres below sea level. Alas this troubled region has no long instrumental temperature records but there is no question the atmospheric lapse rate just carries on rolling down as well as up mountains.

Christmas Quiz: tallbloke style

Welcome to the annual quiz. As always the beautiful Anthea will be assisting contestants with their pens and paper…

Winning prize is a ‘raid at tallbloke towers’ Josh Cartoons commemorative mug.

Spirit of Christmas

Happy Christmas everyone!

The incredible generosity from people all over the world who reacted so quickly to the raid at Tallbloke Towers prior to the legal fund appeal means we don’t have to worry about the laptops seized from my home by Norfolk Police in collaboration with the Metropolitan Police and the National Domestic Extremism Team not being returned in the condition they were taken.

Here’s what your kind donations have bought Kath for Christmas.

She has had her sights on one of these ASUS Transformers for a while, as she needs something she can use as an E-reader or movie screen while traveling and also type without struggling with an on-screen keyboard with her jittery fingers. She wants the 32G ‘Prime’ version which is pre-order only at the moment, so I also bought her some very nice sheepskin slippers for lounging round the house in to open on Christmas morning.

VAT free

Note: this is a post by Tim Channon, co-moderator. Please read the footnote.

The Register reported yesterday the subhead “Vast vats of info goodness”, all public funded research will be open access to all and enforced. (yeah right and I get to do awful headlines)

100 page report by BIS Department of Business and Skills, for presentation to parliament.

I think these two are Cable and Willetts but as a non television user I’ve never seen them before.

Suppose they’ll do as a header picture. Hotties, err people vary. (beware humour)

How real is this? I suspect there are strings and wrinkles, always are.

Anyone who penetrates to gookspeak of the document please illuminate us.

“The Government will open up access to core public datasets on transport, weather and health,”

The MSN reported recently about access to personal health records, the sentence above completes “including giving individuals access to their online GP records by the end of this Parliament; ” (we already have access so this is little change, records are poor anyway, a long story)

BBC: More factual inaccuracy plus some spin

The story by Nikki Fox which appeared in the regional section of the BBC website and on BBC ‘Look East’ television news two days ago contains factual inaccuracies and omissions which indicate to me that ‘message massage’ is still a high priority for the BBC, rather than the unbiased reporting their charter requires them to produce.

I’m not blaming reporter Nikki Fox for this, as I believe she has been pretty fair with me. I think her editors and the news producers have put their own spin on her story. I contacted her when the story appeared with two concerns.

Jeff ID:Their Side – Bloggers knew FOIA emails were coming

Reposted from Jeff ID’s blog, which was one of the recipients of the comment from ‘foia’  linking the FOIA2011.zip containing the Climategate 2 files. Leslie Kaufman emailed me the day after the raid on my home. I replied with the statement written by my solicitors Wilde & Company, and nothing more.

Posted by Jeff Id on December 22, 2011

I just had a phone conversation with Leslie Kaufman of the NYT on the ‘hacker’. She was careful to call the FOIA people by that PC name. Rule 1 – Don’t offend the witness unless you want them upset. I didn’t really want to do the interview because these things don’t usually go well for me and it took me several days to make time. Unfortunately my Achilles heel is that I tend to say what I think. — I know you are all surprised.

Breaking News: Norfolk Police to hand over Climategate inquiry

Story clarified in the update below – it looks like I’ve misunderstood what I was told earlier.

In a sudden new development, your correspondent has learned that Norfolk Constabulary have decided that climategate is too big for them to handle. According to an un-named source, they intend to hand over the inquiry to another force.

This follows on the heels of a ‘request for a contact’ at Norfolk Constabulary by Lord Christopher Monckton in connection with his intention to have the police investigate  revelations in the ‘climategate’ emails placed in the public domain.

This is much bigger news than the raid at Tallbloke Towers, when police from three forces seized computers belonging to yours truly, on the basis of information supporting a  warrant which has not yet been revealed.

Winter Solstice: Past the darkest night to sunnier days ahead

December 21st is an important date in the astronomical calendar,  which marks the transition from darkening days to brightening ones in the Earth’s northern hemisphere. For three days around now, the Sun stands still, rising at the same point on the horizon at the most southerly point it reaches. Then on Christmas day, the Sun rises noticeably further north and so is ‘reborn’ to start the New Year.

For my good lady and myself, it has been a dark and difficult time over this last week. We have been raided by the police, had our main means of communication with the outside world confiscated and our telephone line ripped out, hounded by the press, libeled by a Harvard PhD and a Penn State professor among others and vilified by half the climateering blogosphere. We have cried tears of fear and frustration,  endured quizzical looks from work colleagues and neighbours, lost sleep had to support worried parents and relatives.