Iron line to the pole

Posted: December 27, 2011 by tchannon in Astrophysics, climate, Solar physics

altrock-1

Image of solar FE XIV spectral line emission courtesty of the work of Richard C Altrock, at AFRL.

This post h/t to Talkshop contributor Ninderthana who left a note in suggestions. His Blogspot site is here

I am not covering anything new, but I am pointing to a compendium of What’s Going On Here? a press release published six months ago by Boulder.

Major Drop in Solar Activity Predicted

We are now at the gates of 2012, still it seems with no clear idea of what the sun is going to do next. Has anything significant changed over the past six months?

Comments
  1. p.g.sharrow says:

    Your link to Bolder, Major Drop, illustrates the projected coming cycle #25 may be a very low Sun Spot activity cycle. I think we may also see massive Coronal Mass Ejections at that time as they seem to be enhanced when the SSN is suppressed. pg

  2. Time to invest in furs?

    I don’t like the look of the length of the current solar cycle. The pattern of cycles is similar to that prior to the Dalton minimum; though one can’t tell for sure because we’ve changed the way in which we count sunspots. So direct comparison with historical, direct observations is fraught with complications. So I reckon the calibrated, Mk1 eyeball is as good a tool for comparison as any.

    Observers such as David Archibald detect a close match with the Maunder and Dalton minima by more rigorous methods:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/12/another-parallel-with-the-maunder-minimum/
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up/

  3. George says:

    I wonder how that data would look updated to now. I don’t see anything like that sort on Leif Svalgaard’s page ( http://www.leif.org/research/ )

  4. Edim says:

    Cycle 23 was already pretty long (~12 years, it’s very difficult to ascertain the length accurately), after the short (strong) cycles 21 and 22 (~10 years). According to the image, cycle 24 will be much longer (> 13 years, next minimum around 2022 or later) than cycle 23, which was already a long (cold) cycle, and that’s very remarkable. The cooling will be dramatic and possibly steeper than the late 20th century (exaggerated?) warming. We will then experience sea ice increase, cursed* glaciers, sea level decrease and possibly atmospheric CO2 decrease too.

    * http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/history-of-geology/2011/12/26/cursed-glaciers/

  5. Tenuc says:

    Looks like various solar indicators pointing to us already being at start of solar max for c24…








    (charts courtesy of Solen Info and Stanford Wilcox Solar Observatory)

    It looks like the sun is having a rest following the very strong c21&c22 and I think it will be bad news for us if c25 turns out to be another weak cycle. Time will tell.

  6. tallbloke says:

    George: The data shown goes at least most way through 2011. How much more current can you get? 🙂

    Our flights to Malaga are booked. We are going to have a look along the Costa Tropical for some growing land with enough spare room to hold an extended climate conference on.

    Oh, I forgot. Leif Svalgaard says the Sun’s variation only make a 0.05C difference to global temperature.

    We’ll see over the next ten years who is right, but my planning has already begun.

  7. George says:

    Well, I believe DIRECT radiation changes from the sun might make only that much difference but there might be other things that go on at the same time as sunspot count changes. For example: TSI might not change but the energy balance across that spectrum might change. If there is less energy at UV and it shifts to visible, maybe the lack of UV has impacts on the upper atmosphere or maybe not as much energy penetrates into the oceans. UV rays penetrate the deepest into the ocean of any wavelength. Maybe Svensmark is correct and cloud albedo changes with changes in the sun’s behavior. So maybe it is not the lack of sunspots per se as it is something else that results in a lack of sunspots also causes other things to happen. No idea but I suspect you might be right in that we might be about to find out and that makes me somewhat uneasy.