Another X-class solar flare cycle 24

Posted: January 28, 2012 by tchannon in Solar physics

geos-flux1

Hat tip to Vuk.

We’ve not had a solar activity thread recently so when Vuk points at spitzundsparken it seems a good idea.

The sun has been flare active recently and given my opinion it’s not that far off solar max this makes sense (he says justifying himself 😉

If flare activity carries on until mid week the likely very cold weather as a result of a blocking high over Europe will lead to clear skies in many places, good conditions to see the Northern Lights.

meteox-1

Meteox image is a model forecast for date marked

A quick post, can add to this article later.

Newcomers to Tallbloke’s:- Prior to the police raid in December there was usually more than one active article, where people with different interests can take part without things getting too mixed up. At the moment there is so much comment traffic this doesn’t work well.

Posted by Tim Channon

Comments
  1. Pete H says:

    Help me out here. This one does not appear to be earthbound or am I reading stuff wrong?

  2. tallbloke says:

    The WUWT thread looks promising

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/27/major-x-class-solar-flare/

    So does their cold plasma thread

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/27/giant-veil-of-cold-plasma-discovered-high-above-earth/

    And Tim is right, so apologies to those who have been missing their solar threads while I’ve been busy with other stuff.

  3. Vuk says:

    3 -days data :

    [ Above is captured copy, below is link to current image –Tim]

    Pete H says:
    This one does not appear to be earthbound or am I reading stuff wrong?
    Looks like it.

    [Above is captured copy, below is live link –Tim]
    http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

    [Note: Capturing images to a WordPress (safe server) copy has to be done via here, not automated so I don’t do this often. –Tim]

  4. James says:

    That projected amount of global cooling is frightening cementafriend.

    The average global temperaure at 600mb is now the lowest in a decade and has plunged like a stone in January. Unfortunately the near surface channel is OOA since 2008.

    .http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps

  5. Michele says:

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2012Q1_DPD.txt

    # GOES-13 Proton Fluence GOES-13 Electron Fluence Neutron
    # — Protons/cm2-day-sr — — Electrons/cm2-day-sr — Monitor
    # Date >1 MeV >10 MeV >100 MeV >0.8 MeV >2 MeV % of bkgd

    2012 01 19 3.4e+05 1.4e+04 3.2e+03 8.4e+08 1.9e+06 -999.99
    2012 01 20 2.2e+06 6.9e+04 3.0e+03 6.3e+08 1.8e+06 -999.99
    2012 01 21 5.6e+06 8.0e+04 3.0e+03 3.9e+08 1.8e+06 -999.99
    2012 01 22 1.5e+07 9.8e+04 2.8e+03 1.1e+08 1.2e+06 -999.99
    2012 01 23 2.7e+08 1.4e+08 9.1e+04 2.9e+08 1.4e+07 -999.99
    2012 01 24 1.1e+09 2.1e+08 2.1e+04 5.3e+08 2.5e+08 -999.99
    2012 01 25 2.6e+08 2.6e+07 2.7e+03 5.2e+08 5.3e+07 -999.99
    2012 01 26 3.7e+07 4.3e+06 3.4e+03 1.8e+09 1.6e+07 -999.99
    2012 01 27 1.6e+07 4.7e+06 1.6e+05 3.9e+09 5.5e+07 -999.99

    M 5.0 – NORTHERN ITALY – 2012-01-27 14:53 UTC
    M 5.4 – DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE – 2012-01-27 01:33 UTC
    M 5.3 – DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE – 2012-01-26 04:24 UTC
    M 4.9 – NORTHERN ITALY – 2012-01-25 08:06 UTC
    M 4.3 – NORTHERN ITALY – 2012-01-24 23:54 UTC

    Stress Eurasian plate !

  6. tchannon says:

    Pete H,

    So far as I know not earth bound. Several Talkshop contributors suspect there is a connection between planet position (electrical/magnetic field, gravity effects too) and flare activity. I’m more in moderator mode at the moment than really thinking or looking mode.

    Hence also the earthquake patterning.

  7. Michele says:

    OT

    🙂

    [ Let’s hope not –Tim]

  8. Hans says:

    Michele says:
    January 28, 2012 at 5:55 pm

    Michele, I have no idea why you show this graph in this tread and you might be kind to explain. My observation might be quite wrong here.

    The temperature at 850 hPa above has a minimum close to Stockholm where I am just now. The surface pressure at sea level is about 1035 hPa which is extremely high (9:30 PM local time 12-01-28). The temperature is a high -3C and has been similar all day. The 100% cloud cover is what in the first place keeps the surface temperature high. The tempereature could easily fall to -15C – 20C without a cloud cover. There is no evidence that carbon dioxide is heating the surface though.
    With no clouds there would be more carbon dioxide molecules that could send the back radiation
    so it is really hard to accept that hypothesis. It is not water vapour either since there is not much water vapur in the air and the cloud cover is at pretty low altitude. There are ice chrystals that send the IR the “back radiation” to my house.
    Please, show the 850 hPa graph for tomorrow too.

  9. tchannon says:

    Hans,

    The context of this article and thread is solar flares and now it seems the weather we are expecting to develop over the next week. This has nothing to do with discussions on N&Z, etc. etc.

    I showed a temperature map for evening for the 1st Feb, Michele has found a larger area map for 5th Feb showing an expected intense high, likely to be strong blocking conditions. Some professionals are forecasting month long blocking so the UK is likely to get cold and clear skies, no snow.

    The meteox map I show has slightly warmer on the east coast of the UK. There is a weak airflow from the east picking up a little heat from the North Sea, but radiative cooling under clear skies then takes over.

  10. tchannon says:

    I just noticed the barometer has ramped up to 1030 and levelled off to flat over the last 24 hours, Now clear, little wind, cooling from 3C, will be a ground frost. Been wet so mist/fog is likely.
    Doubt it will go much lower. I’m in central southern England.

    The winter cold snap is starting.

  11. Vuk says:

    OT
    My man and compatriot NOVAK DJOKOVIC just won Melbourne tennis tournament (3:2). Congratulations to our Nole.

    [ Novak Djokovic wins epic thriller over Rafael Nadal –Tim]

  12. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Hans: Have you read the date at Michele´s graph?: february 5th, 2012

  13. James says:

    OT (but it is a Solar thing)
    The MET office are predicting a decline in Solar output right up to 2100 and say they expect this to create .08 C of Global cooling but they add this rider “It’s important to note this study is based on a single climate model, rather than multiple models which would capture more of the uncertainties in the climate system.”. Which has left me confused. Which model? Why only one model? Why that model? What do the other models predict?

    What they have not said is how much they expect the power of the sun to decline. Which is a great shame as Harry Huffman’s findings should be able to give precise atmosphere temperature calculations for the reduced amount of power from the sun, if he is correct. The MET office still predict a 2.5 C rise by 2100 minus .08C so they obviously believe a trace gas creates more heat than the Sun.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/solar-output-research

  14. adolfogiurfa says:

    About Michele´s graph above; more here:

    [Following link is to Google translation from Italian
    Cold event in Italy next week: Yes, no or ni? –Tim]

  15. tallbloke says:

    James says:
    January 29, 2012 at 5:15 pm

    OT (but it is a Solar thing)
    The MET office are predicting a decline in Solar output right up to 2100 and say they expect this to create .08 C of Global cooling

    They’ve been drinking too much of Svalgaard’s hooch. 🙂

  16. Anything is possible says:

    I still can’t get past the fact that the Met Office claim to be able to predict global temperatures in 88 years time, to an accuracy of 0.01C, with more certainty than they can predict next Thursday’s weather.

    Makes me laugh every time…….

  17. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Tallbloke: Perhaps Dr. Piers Corbyn should lend them his old laptop. Their “super computer” is like superman, affected by Kriptonite. 🙂

  18. tchannon says:

    I think the shorted web address I know http://yr.no

    Enjoy these photos http://www.yr.no/nyheter/1.7967958

  19. adolfogiurfa says:

    @Michele: It seems we are in a transition as between solar cycles 4 and 5: